Floor - Tobias Harris
Ceiling - Danny Granger
Rooftop - PG13
I like this one. I'll second it.
I think this is ridiculous.
Remember Adam Morrison, 3rd overall pick...what would people have said his "floor" was? Mike Miller? Well, he was out of the league in a couple seasons. That's what the floor is: Any player, even highly touted experienced college players with NBA ready skills can completely bust even without injuries, etc.
What if Tatum is Gerald Green with a worse jump shot? That player had to rehab his role playing career in China.
Same can be said for ceiling. SFs like Granger, PG3, Pierce, all 10 and above. Their ceilings were tremendously high! That's where Tatum's is. He is 19, great size, underrated athleticism...he could be a Carmelo clone, and if he develops that in the right culture (a la carmelo on the US national teams) that's an incredible player.
So floor: No second NBA contract.
Ceiling: Potential best player on championship team.
Adam Morrison did tear his ACL in his second season. Don't think that's what derailed his career, but if you're gonna call something ridiculous at least have all the facts.
Well, the point is multiple unexpected players flame out every draft and have flamed out from every draft position in every single way. So to say that someone's absolute imaginable bottom is a good rotation player is not accurate.
Adam Morrison was drafted at age 22 but Tatum is already more athletic, quick, and explosive as him.
At 22 Morrison had:
6'10'' wingspan
8'9'' standing reach
25.5'' no step and 30.5'' max vert
6'6.5'' w/o shoes
At only 18 Tatum was better in each of those categories except age. Morrison also had diabetes...which may have complicated his career and physical abilities.
Tatum did hurt his foot and missed the beginning of the season and all the practices/camps that lead up...which is hard to recover from, especially as a freshman, because you learn the systems.
Look, I like Tatum, have high hopes. I think he is a way better prospect than morrison, and thought morrison would be a massive bust.
That's not the point.
The point is, when you say "someone's floor," you are saying the absolute worst this player could be is XXXXX. For Morrison, people would've said his floor was a guy who could come of screens and hit threes at a high clip, with his ceiling being an elite versatile scorer. However, even that floor was too optimistic; he was out of the league in a flash.
For Steph Curry, who knew his "ceiling" was league MVP? There are players like him every so often: questions about size, athleticism, good shooter, late bloomer, tweener, more experienced college player, good results but at a lesser school...It wouldn't have been that surprising if he and Gabe Pruitt had had similar careers. Happens every single year.
So Tobias Harris, a pretty decent scorer with a role in the league after 4 years of experience, is too high a floor; he's on track to have a better career than several first round picks.
Tatum is young, good size, decent athleticism, good head on his shoulders by all accounts, good skills...so his floor is probably around Al Thornton or Adam Morrison, his ceiling is around Carmelo but a good teammate, which means his ottoman is around tobias harris, his chandelier around paul george, and his kitchen table around danny granger.