It is not smart team building or cap management to pay a guy that is around the 25th best player in the sport 35% of the cap. It is too much money for a guy that simply isn't good enough. But unless Boston trades him, they have to do that as they can't let him leave. That is why I'd trade Brown. You just have to maximize the dollars and cap room and that isn't Brown.
Thing is those aren't the only two options. The "Brown makes too much money to build out a team argument" doesn't really become a thing until you have both him and Tatum on a 35% Max in 25-26. That's two more years until its an issue. It makes very little sense to trade a guy now when he's an expiring that no other team can functionally extend and as a result has less value than ever.
The best bet is re-sign him, give things two more years, then re-evaluate. Unless he suffers a career ending type injury he'll have more value locked up on a contract by that point then he does now.
I think you're missing the point here. It's not about the development of the payroll whether or not signing Brown to a supermax is a smart decision.
Signing (a player of the caliber of) Brown to 35% of the cap is a bad decision period, because it's simply a very bad contract. You're not getting good value per dollar. And for that reason teams are not going to hand you a bag of assets in 2025 to help you get off that contract.
It's far more likely that you're going to have to take some form of bad contract or liability in return. And then the Celtics are with their backs against the wall. If ownership wants to pay $200M in luxury tax every year then I don't care much about the contract, but I don't think they will.
I still care though because every dollar overspent is an opportunity cost. Ainge was a master in getting good value per dollar. I hope Stevens will follow him on that and not let his personal feelings towards his former pupils deray him from his task as GM.
No, i understand that's the belief. I just completely disagree with the idea.
If Jaylen Brown plays just roughly the same as he did this year next year, and he should given he'll be only 27, then he is easily a positive value player next summer even on a 4+1 35% max. Guys who can score 27 ppg with a high USG, defend 1-4 reasonably well, rebound well for their size, don't have an extensive injury history and play the wing will have value. There are always a ton of teams with young player and cap space who want to be better immediately and don't really care about the money because their stars aren't getting paid yet. Detroit, Houston, OKC, Orl all for example. I think you'll get a very good return for a guy under contract, MUCH better than for a guy in the final year of his deal, because having him under long term control greatly expands the number of teams who might be interested.
Again, if he blows out his knee or suffers some career altering injury next year MAYBE that changes things. But also him taking another leap, which is possible, changes thing in the other direction. So its a risk, but I think a good one.