And it's not just injuries. Remember, over the next 3 years, Ray, KG, and Pierce's contracts are up (1 each year, in the order I named them). Pretty good possibility that 2 years from now, Ray will be elsewhere, and KG will be a pending free agent.
Which, when knowing there is absolutely zero salary cap flexibility for the foreseeable future, means i put the chances that this is the last season for this particular "big 3" together at about 75%. I think Ray is gone this offseason for a couple younger pieces with longer contracts.
i think that Ray will resign for a lesser amount in 2010, then Pierce will do the same in 2011. Then in 11/12 KG's salary jumps back up from 18 to 21 mil.
and i doubt that Ray would leave via free agency becuase he would then lose his bird rights, where if he stays here they'd continue to grow.
i beleive that their salaries are going to work perfect becuase the year Ray's contract is up is the same year that TA, Eddie (assuming we take the option for next year), and the illusive Scal contract come off the books. So if you add it up it comes to about 30 mil coming off the books in one year. Give Ray like 10 mil and you still have 20 to pick up future talent and role players, then the next year theres a similar situation where Paul's 21 comes off.
Also: the best thing that Red did is that he never traded his players away for draft picks, if your winning championships the good players will want to come here.
another note: 2010 Joe Johnson becomes a free agent, so we could have a five of
Rondo
Joe Johnson
Pierce
KG
Perk
with Ray coming off the bench.
See, this is erroneous thinking. let's say Ray stays through next year, to the '10 offseason. That means that offseason we have 3 people under contract: KG, Pierce, Perkins. They come to 44 mil. There will be no 1st rounder in '09 but there will be in '10, but let's say we trade that and trade our 2nd rounders so we don't need to pay them. Let's say Rondo is extended at about 7 mil per year. Lets say that they even drop the Giddens option and keep only Walker. So then let's say they let Tony, Eddie, Scal, Powe, Pruitt, and Davis walk.
They'd be left with this:
Rondo
Pierce (33)
KG (34)
Perkins
Walker
No draft choices.
And the above 5 players would already be costing around 53 million dollars, which will probably be about 3-4 million under the cap. That means that if Ray stays, expires, and DOESN'T sign an extension, we would have 4 million to fill out the rest of the roster, then the 5.5 or so of the MLE as well. Of course if Ray signs at a major discount, but re-signs at 4 million or more per year, we could throw Ray into the above roster (giving us 6 players, 3 of whom are 33-35 years old), and 5.5 million for the rest of the roster.
The key concept several people don't get is this: If you lose 30 million dollars in contracts, you DO NOT get to spend 30 million on players. If you want to spend 30 million on players, you must be 30 million dollars BELOW the 55.5 million dollar salary cap, which, realistically, the Celtics will not be for several years. The Celtics' payroll is currently at 78 million, so they need to lose 20 million in salaries without adding any salary just to get TO the salary cap.
The only way the Celtics could realistically replace all 20 million dollars of Ray's contract with other players is by trading him BEFORE he expires, or finding a partner in the '10 offseason for a sign and trade (but who would want to receive a 35 year old allen to a max sign and trade?)
Topic: What if this is the end of the line for KG? (Read 11855 times)