Tatum's Shot Profile

[PhoSita]

Courtesy of Basketball-Reference.  Of course this is small sample size theater here, but I think the stark differences are consistent with the eye test on this one.

Tatum's shot attempts from 0-3 feet were 32% of his attempts in 17-18.  Those attempts are down to 18.6% in 18-19.

Meanwhile his attempts from 10-16 feet are up from 9.6% to 13.6%, and 2 pointers from 16 feet or farther are up from 18.8% to 25% of his attempts (i.e. the worst shot in basketball).

His shooting percentage on 2 pointers 10 feet or further out is way down, from about 43% to about 27%.  He's been a bad mid-range scorer this year.

Perhaps most noticeable is that the percentage of 2 pointers Tatum hits that are assisted is down from 56.5% to 37.5%.  He's obviously creating a lot more of his offense himself, but that has not resulted in greater efficiency or greater scoring volume.  It's just bad.

Tatum's True Shooting is down from 58.6% to 51.1% as a result.


Confidence is great in a young player, but Tatum seems to have cast aside a lot of the tendencies that made him so efficient and valuable last year.

[Donoghus]

It's true.  He's settling more and its super frustrating.

Lowe touched on it in his piece this morning.

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/25219366/zach-lowe-10-things-like-including-jayson-tatum-nba

6. Jayson Tatum, also settling
About 38 percent of Tatum's shots have come from midrange, up from 27 percent a year ago. The corresponding drop has come almost entirely at the rim.

When Tatum catches against a scrambling defense and blows by defenders rushing to close out on him, his first instinct is to pull from 18 feet -- even if he has daylight:

That's a decent shot. The math gets worse if a defender so much as waves at him, especially considering the available options: drive to pay dirt, or kick the ball to a teammate for an open 3 -- or another drive. Boston is last at generating shots at the rim, and next-to-last in free throws per field goal attempt. Those are becoming annual problems; Tatum is contributing to them.

Boston ranks an ugly 27th in points per possession. That will come up as Gordon Hayward finds his footing, and chemistry solidifies. Tatum has hit just 26 percent of those long 2s; that will come up, too. That doesn't mean he should settle. Tatum has shown he can explode to the rim, and make the next pass if help comes:

More, please. To have any hope of contending with Toronto and Golden State, Boston needs to rejigger its shot selection.

[apc]

SO we all noticed it. are coaches saying anything about it? cause he is still at it.

[tonydelk]

Tatum seems to be struggling to find his offense within the team.  Not sure if the Tmac and Kobe training changed what he's trying to do.  I'm ok when he posts up to get his shot.  I cringe when he takes those off balance shots off one foot at the end of the shot clock.  It's like he's channeling his inner Marcus Smart.  I'm sure teams now have a lot of video on Tatum and he needs time to adjust but what he needs to do is post up and shoot the open 3's.

[droopdog7]

Tatum's struggles are a microcosm of the team's struggles.  He not into any kind of flow, doesn't know or trust where his shots will come from, and is playing WAY to much iso ball.  I mean, I'm starting to cringe when I see him face up on a guy.

As the offensive flow improves, so will Tatum (and not necessarily the other way around).

[Big333223]

I wonder if this is a result of him getting comfortable carrying the offense during the playoffs last season and now re-integrating with Kyrie (a better scorer right now) and Hayward (a better playmaker on the wing). It's like he's too good to go back to his role from last season but not good enough to usurp either as the primary option in either respect.

And when he plays with the bench, Marcus Morris is shooting the lights out right now. So Tatum might be a little lost.

Hopefully it all gets ironed out over the course of the season. In the meantime, he'll do himself some favors by focusing on his old role, catch-and-shoot 3's and attacking the rim. He's got a long career in front of him and it won't be long because he's asked to do a lot more. For this team, right now, he has to get better at picking his spots.

[hodgy03038]

I think he gets "in game" texts from Kobe. It's like 'just take the shots' and some of them will go in. "It doesn't matter if you are double teamed and falling away behind the 3 point line - if you want to score like I did just take as many shots as possible!"

[RJ87]

SO we all noticed it. are coaches saying anything about it? cause he is still at it.

I'm sure they are - hence, him getting benched to start the 2nd half last night - but he's got to buy in. The problem with everyone crowning him the next superstar or this team's all around best player before actually earning this distinctions is that he may be forgetting the basic things that made him so promising in the beginning.

[GreenEnvy]

[dang] you, Kobe!

Stay away from our players.


I think he’s just a little confused. He’s recklessly aggressive when it’s not there, and passes up good shots (which he isn’t making anyway) to try to create and often leading to a long contested fade-away.

First few games he looked great, so maybe it’s just a slump, or maybe he started feeling himself a little too much (cover of ESPN, working with Kobe, best player in the draft, untouchable, etc.). The best part about him last season was nothing seemed forced. He just played the game. Complete opposite right now, everything seems so unnatural.

[GreenFaith1819]

Just PLAY, Jayson...LET GO..

"Obi Wan voice."

[gouki88]

I think he has to be confused about his role. Or at least that’s what I’m hoping.

I think it’s just a slump, and hopefully he’ll come good sooner rather than later. He’s shown this season what he can do (New York, Philly and OKC games spring to mind)

[ozgod]

It doesn't look like he's playing with any confidence.

[KGBirdBias]

Again, when you have so many scorers in the starting lineup it's hard for any of them to get inactive rhythm and flow. Hence...I said change the starters.

It would be interesting to see what the shots-per-possesion looks like...I bet it ain't good or enough for the starters.

[Boris Badenov]

[dang] you, Kobe!

Stay away from our players.

The Kobe modeling isn't bad, but apparently no one told Tatum to pick the shot distribution of 25-year-old Kobe, not 35-year-old Kobe.

[hodgy03038]

Again, when you have so many scorers in the starting lineup it's hard for any of them to get inactive rhythm and flow. Hence...I said change the starters.

It would be interesting to see what the shots-per-possesion looks like...I bet it ain't good or enough for the starters.

What is inactive rhythm? Isn't that what they have now except Kyrie & Morris?