Author Topic: Celtics FTA tracker  (Read 908 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Celtics FTA tracker
« on: November 06, 2018, 09:54:02 AM »

Offline gift

  • NCE
  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3987
  • Tommy Points: 291
In the Celtics 4 losses they are averaging 10 FTA/game. In their 6 wins they are averaging 25 FTA/game (if you eliminate the first game against the Sixers and the hot shooting game against Milwaukee, this average becomes 30.75 FTA/game).

Opponents' FTA/game for all 10 Celtics games are currently 23.4, for reference.

I can handle variance in three point shooting, but we need more consistency getting to the free throw line.

The Celtics are pretty consistently out-shooting opponents (eFG%), even though it doesn't feel like it sometimes, and rebounding and turnovers seem to vary. The consistency in losses (and some wins) is free throw disparity.

Nothing new here, but I thought we could track this specifically as the season progresses since it should be an area of focus for the team.

Re: Celtics FTA tracker
« Reply #1 on: November 06, 2018, 10:06:51 AM »

Offline Surferdad

  • Cedric Maxwell
  • **************
  • Posts: 14480
  • Tommy Points: 976
  • "He fiddles...and diddles..."
Hard to put these numbers in context.  What are the league-wide averages in wins and losses?

Re: Celtics FTA tracker
« Reply #2 on: November 06, 2018, 10:13:05 AM »

Offline gift

  • NCE
  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3987
  • Tommy Points: 291
Hard to put these numbers in context.  What are the league-wide averages in wins and losses?

I'm sure someone could find them, however I wasn't concerned with league averages because each game will be called differently and so the free throw numbers for a Lakers/Spurs game has no bearing on wins/losses for the Celtics.

What does is their disparity with their opponents within the same game, and a difference of 10 FTA to 25 FTA is wild.

I did, however post that Celtics opponents avg 23.4 FTA/game for context, so you can see how much of an effect a variance like 10-25 will have.

Re: Celtics FTA tracker
« Reply #3 on: November 06, 2018, 10:17:58 AM »

Offline slamtheking

  • NCE
  • Red Auerbach
  • *******************************
  • Posts: 31869
  • Tommy Points: 10047
In the Celtics 4 losses they are averaging 10 FTA/game. In their 6 wins they are averaging 25 FTA/game (if you eliminate the first game against the Sixers and the hot shooting game against Milwaukee, this average becomes 30.75 FTA/game).

Opponents' FTA/game for all 10 Celtics games are currently 23.4, for reference.

I can handle variance in three point shooting, but we need more consistency getting to the free throw line.

The Celtics are pretty consistently out-shooting opponents (eFG%), even though it doesn't feel like it sometimes, and rebounding and turnovers seem to vary. The consistency in losses (and some wins) is free throw disparity.

Nothing new here, but I thought we could track this specifically as the season progresses since it should be an area of focus for the team.
Tommy Heinsohn is that you?   ;)

Re: Celtics FTA tracker
« Reply #4 on: November 06, 2018, 10:21:01 AM »

Offline gift

  • NCE
  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3987
  • Tommy Points: 291
In the Celtics 4 losses they are averaging 10 FTA/game. In their 6 wins they are averaging 25 FTA/game (if you eliminate the first game against the Sixers and the hot shooting game against Milwaukee, this average becomes 30.75 FTA/game).

Opponents' FTA/game for all 10 Celtics games are currently 23.4, for reference.

I can handle variance in three point shooting, but we need more consistency getting to the free throw line.

The Celtics are pretty consistently out-shooting opponents (eFG%), even though it doesn't feel like it sometimes, and rebounding and turnovers seem to vary. The consistency in losses (and some wins) is free throw disparity.

Nothing new here, but I thought we could track this specifically as the season progresses since it should be an area of focus for the team.
Tommy Heinsohn is that you?   ;)

Lol, I'm not even complaining about the officiating. I'm saying the offense is not creating free throw attempts, which are great shots.

Re: Celtics FTA tracker
« Reply #5 on: November 06, 2018, 10:24:16 AM »

Offline slamtheking

  • NCE
  • Red Auerbach
  • *******************************
  • Posts: 31869
  • Tommy Points: 10047
In the Celtics 4 losses they are averaging 10 FTA/game. In their 6 wins they are averaging 25 FTA/game (if you eliminate the first game against the Sixers and the hot shooting game against Milwaukee, this average becomes 30.75 FTA/game).

Opponents' FTA/game for all 10 Celtics games are currently 23.4, for reference.

I can handle variance in three point shooting, but we need more consistency getting to the free throw line.

The Celtics are pretty consistently out-shooting opponents (eFG%), even though it doesn't feel like it sometimes, and rebounding and turnovers seem to vary. The consistency in losses (and some wins) is free throw disparity.

Nothing new here, but I thought we could track this specifically as the season progresses since it should be an area of focus for the team.
Tommy Heinsohn is that you?   ;)

Lol, I'm not even complaining about the officiating. I'm saying the offense is not creating free throw attempts, which are great shots.
I agree on that.  too much 3-point shooting and not enough attempts in the lane or driving to the hoop.  Also, boggles my mind each game how they rarely draw a foul on those drives.  no way the other team can shut down that many drives to the basket cleanly.

Re: Celtics FTA tracker
« Reply #6 on: November 06, 2018, 10:28:51 AM »

Online Moranis

  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 33616
  • Tommy Points: 1544
Hard to put these numbers in context.  What are the league-wide averages in wins and losses?

I'm sure someone could find them, however I wasn't concerned with league averages because each game will be called differently and so the free throw numbers for a Lakers/Spurs game has no bearing on wins/losses for the Celtics.

What does is their disparity with their opponents within the same game, and a difference of 10 FTA to 25 FTA is wild.

I did, however post that Celtics opponents avg 23.4 FTA/game for context, so you can see how much of an effect a variance like 10-25 will have.
but what were the opponents in the losses vs. the wins.  The overall average doesn't tell you all that much in this discussion.
2023 Historical Draft - Brooklyn Nets - 9th pick

Bigs - Pau, Amar'e, Issel, McGinnis, Roundfield
Wings - Dantley, Bowen, J. Jackson
Guards - Cheeks, Petrovic, Buse, Rip

Re: Celtics FTA tracker
« Reply #7 on: November 06, 2018, 10:40:24 AM »

Offline gift

  • NCE
  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3987
  • Tommy Points: 291
Hard to put these numbers in context.  What are the league-wide averages in wins and losses?

I'm sure someone could find them, however I wasn't concerned with league averages because each game will be called differently and so the free throw numbers for a Lakers/Spurs game has no bearing on wins/losses for the Celtics.

What does is their disparity with their opponents within the same game, and a difference of 10 FTA to 25 FTA is wild.

I did, however post that Celtics opponents avg 23.4 FTA/game for context, so you can see how much of an effect a variance like 10-25 will have.
but what were the opponents in the losses vs. the wins.  The overall average doesn't tell you all that much in this discussion.

I deleted my data, but it's easy to look up if you want (hint: massively outscored at the line). However, that data really only tells you how the opponent offense is playing/Celtics defense is playing, which are important, but outside the scope of this focus. The difference between the Celtics FTA from one game to the next (disregard wins and losses even) is huge. If the team was undefeated this year, it would be notable. The fact that the averages are so split between wins and losses might just be meaningful.

The difference is obviously 15 FTA/game. Let's say it takes roughly 8 possessions to create those 15 extra free throws. If the Celtics shoot a modest 70% on those free throws, they would score at roughly 1.31 points per possession for those possessions. Their current average is 1.04, so these 8 possessions would have a much higher expected return than their average offensive possession. This is independent of opponent FT/FTA, though a tighter-called game (where everyone is shooting more at the line) might reduce the relative impact of any given FTA.