Rajon Rondo vs. Devin Harris

[BballTim]

Rondo's next contract will be as much about his play as it is about Celtic's leverage.

As a restricted free agent during the 2010 bonanza, I really cannot see him comanding a ton of attention. Will anyone even offer him something beyond the MLE?

Solid Pointguards (2010):
ATL, CHA, CHI, CLE, DEN, DET, GSW, IND, LAC, MEM, MIL, NJ, NO, OKC, ORL, SAN, PHO, TOR, UTA, WAS

  That's extremely debatable. I don't know that ATL, CHA, DET are definitely set at pg, OKC and MIL may or may not pan out, WAS and GSW might decide that Arenas/Ellis are better at sg and DEN or PHO or LAC might not pass on the chance to get a pg of the future instead of just sticking with their mid-30s players. I think we can safely say that CHI, SA, NJ, ORL, SA and Utah are unliely to go for Rondo. The rest is a crap shoot. Rondo would be an upgrade for at least 10 of those teams

[Michael Anthony]

Rondo's next contract will be as much about his play as it is about Celtic's leverage.

As a restricted free agent during the 2010 bonanza, I really cannot see him comanding a ton of attention. Will anyone even offer him something beyond the MLE?

Solid Pointguards (2010):
ATL, CHA, CHI, CLE, DEN, DET, GSW, IND, LAC, MEM, MIL, NJ, NO, OKC, ORL, SAN, PHO, TOR, UTA, WAS

  That's extremely debatable. I don't know that ATL, CHA, DET are definitely set at pg, OKC and MIL may or may not pan out, WAS and GSW might decide that Arenas/Ellis are better at sg and DEN or PHO or LAC might not pass on the chance to get a pg of the future instead of just sticking with their mid-30s players. I think we can safely say that CHI, SA, NJ, ORL, SA and Utah are unliely to go for Rondo. The rest is a crap shoot. Rondo would be an upgrade for at least 10 of those teams

I agree that it is hard for me to project what will happen one year and two drafts from now (Lots of pointguards in this draft btw), so I see your point.

ATL is trying to resign Bibby. Plus no cap room
CHA has DJ Augustin & maybe Iverson?
DET just shipped its old PG for their new young one
OKC has Westbrook, who was great this season
MIL probably re-ups with Sessions. Plus no cap room
WAS Lacks serious cap space
GSW Lacks any cap space

Lots of truth to DEN, PHO, and LAC but there are cap space concerns in all three cities.

I agree that Rondo is an upgrade for a lot of those teams, but do you spend the money for do you drop $8+ million to upgrade a position that is filled on your roster? GM's that overallocate resources ($) to the same position get fired.

[BballTim]

Rondo's next contract will be as much about his play as it is about Celtic's leverage.

As a restricted free agent during the 2010 bonanza, I really cannot see him comanding a ton of attention. Will anyone even offer him something beyond the MLE?

Solid Pointguards (2010):
ATL, CHA, CHI, CLE, DEN, DET, GSW, IND, LAC, MEM, MIL, NJ, NO, OKC, ORL, SAN, PHO, TOR, UTA, WAS

  That's extremely debatable. I don't know that ATL, CHA, DET are definitely set at pg, OKC and MIL may or may not pan out, WAS and GSW might decide that Arenas/Ellis are better at sg and DEN or PHO or LAC might not pass on the chance to get a pg of the future instead of just sticking with their mid-30s players. I think we can safely say that CHI, SA, NJ, ORL, SA and Utah are unliely to go for Rondo. The rest is a crap shoot. Rondo would be an upgrade for at least 10 of those teams

I agree that it is hard for me to project what will happen one year and two drafts from now (Lots of pointguards in this draft btw), so I see your point.

ATL is trying to resign Bibby. Plus no cap room
CHA has DJ Augustin & maybe Iverson?
DET just shipped its old PG for their new young one
OKC has Westbrook, who was great this season
MIL probably re-ups with Sessions. Plus no cap room
WAS Lacks serious cap space
GSW Lacks any cap space

Lots of truth to DEN, PHO, and LAC but there are cap space concerns in all three cities.

I agree that Rondo is an upgrade for a lot of those teams, but do you spend the money for do you drop $8+ million to upgrade a position that is filled on your roster? GM's that overallocate resources ($) to the same position get fired.

  You're assuming that young/rookie PGs will definitely work out, that Det is completely sold on Stuckey as a pg and that no teams are going to be able to swing any deals to free up cap space. Rondo's a pretty big chip to gamble that everything breaks in the Celtic's favor. And would you fire a GM for signing Rondo if your pg was someone like Nash or Billups or Davis, 2 years older than they are now?

[timepiece33]

Harris is a very good young PG locked into a reasonable deal.  When you start looking at the deals that TJ Ford, Mo Williams, and Jose Calderon got ... you start to realize that Harris is underpaid for his production.

I tend to look at PER to get a grasp of overall value. Rondo is a solid top 10 PG and I do believe his value is a little more than his PER would suggest.   

[Michael Anthony]

Rondo's next contract will be as much about his play as it is about Celtic's leverage.

As a restricted free agent during the 2010 bonanza, I really cannot see him comanding a ton of attention. Will anyone even offer him something beyond the MLE?

Solid Pointguards (2010):
ATL, CHA, CHI, CLE, DEN, DET, GSW, IND, LAC, MEM, MIL, NJ, NO, OKC, ORL, SAN, PHO, TOR, UTA, WAS

  That's extremely debatable. I don't know that ATL, CHA, DET are definitely set at pg, OKC and MIL may or may not pan out, WAS and GSW might decide that Arenas/Ellis are better at sg and DEN or PHO or LAC might not pass on the chance to get a pg of the future instead of just sticking with their mid-30s players. I think we can safely say that CHI, SA, NJ, ORL, SA and Utah are unliely to go for Rondo. The rest is a crap shoot. Rondo would be an upgrade for at least 10 of those teams

I agree that it is hard for me to project what will happen one year and two drafts from now (Lots of pointguards in this draft btw), so I see your point.

ATL is trying to resign Bibby. Plus no cap room
CHA has DJ Augustin & maybe Iverson?
DET just shipped its old PG for their new young one
OKC has Westbrook, who was great this season
MIL probably re-ups with Sessions. Plus no cap room
WAS Lacks serious cap space
GSW Lacks any cap space

Lots of truth to DEN, PHO, and LAC but there are cap space concerns in all three cities.

I agree that Rondo is an upgrade for a lot of those teams, but do you spend the money for do you drop $8+ million to upgrade a position that is filled on your roster? GM's that overallocate resources ($) to the same position get fired.

  You're assuming that young/rookie PGs will definitely work out, that Det is completely sold on Stuckey as a pg and that no teams are going to be able to swing any deals to free up cap space. Rondo's a pretty big chip to gamble that everything breaks in the Celtic's favor. And would you fire a GM for signing Rondo if your pg was someone like Nash or Billups or Davis, 2 years older than they are now?

As I mentioned, it is difficult to predict with certainty what will happen one year and two drafts from now, so I can only make predictions based on assumptions. Those assumptions are that some of the young/rookie pointguards will work out (or that their teams will not have given up on them), that Detroit IS completely sold on Stuckey (they traded Billups) and that so many teams are trying to cut payroll in this economy that it will become increasingly difficult and expensive (Talent & Picks) to do so.

On top of that, he will be a restricted free agent. The Celtics retain the ability to match any offer, so there really is no risk involved.

[CelticWes34]

Harris' contract may be an interesting one for the Celtics to look at when determining Rondo's value.  Harris made $7.8 million in his first year, and his total contract is 5 years, $43 million.  I think that would be a very reasonable deal for both sides.

If Boston could get Rondo to sign a 5-year, 43 million dollar contract I would be VERY happy!

[snively]

Times scoring below 10 points: Rondo - 36, Harris - 4

Times scoring 20+ points: Rondo - 13, Harris - 36

Times having 10+ assists: Rondo - 28, Harris - 16

I really wonder how much Rondo's passing skills really do make up for Harris' passing advantage.  Harris is a pretty good passer in his own right, despite people attempting to label him an off guard.  If the roles were reversed, and Harris was a Celtics starter, I think he'd be racking up as many assists as Rondo (he averages less than 1.5 assists fewer already), while still scoring more (and at a higher efficiency than he does now.)

You're comparing a team's #1 option to a #4 option.  Harris shoots more, converts at a lesser rate, assists less, rebounds less and turns the ball over more in more minutes per game.  You can make a situational argument for him: his percentage is down because he's forced to take tough shots as one of the team's only options.  But that's a lot of excuse-making.  The fact is Rondo produces a lot more for his team.

The way Rondo's statistical strengths, especially field goal % and assists, are discounted, I wonder if the prevailing belief is that a guy like Devin Harris would shoot 60% in his place, or at least draw defenders to drastically raise the percentages of his teammates.  But then I look at Ray, Paul, Perk and KG and see that they are shooting well above their career percentages with Rondo at the helm, despite all of them, with the possible exception of Pierce being past their prime. 

The only missing dimension that I think Devin Harris would bring is foul drawing and foul shooting.  But this skill alone, when measured against his shortfalls in direct comparison with Rondo, hardly justify using Harris as a salary cap for Rondo, or for declaring him a player of identical or superior value.

[Fafnir]

Times scoring below 10 points: Rondo - 36, Harris - 4

Times scoring 20+ points: Rondo - 13, Harris - 36

Times having 10+ assists: Rondo - 28, Harris - 16

I really wonder how much Rondo's passing skills really do make up for Harris' passing advantage.  Harris is a pretty good passer in his own right, despite people attempting to label him an off guard.  If the roles were reversed, and Harris was a Celtics starter, I think he'd be racking up as many assists as Rondo (he averages less than 1.5 assists fewer already), while still scoring more (and at a higher efficiency than he does now.)

You're comparing a team's #1 option to a #4 option.  Harris shoots more, converts at a lesser rate, assists less, rebounds less and turns the ball over more in more minutes per game.  You can make a situational argument for him: his percentage is down because he's forced to take tough shots as one of the team's only options.  But that's a lot of excuse-making.  The fact is Rondo produces a lot more for his team.

The way Rondo's statistical strengths, especially field goal % and assists, are discounted, I wonder if the prevailing belief is that a guy like Devin Harris would shoot 60% in his place, or at least draw defenders to drastically raise the percentages of his teammates.  But then I look at Ray, Paul, Perk and KG and see that they are shooting well above their career percentages with Rondo at the helm, despite all of them, with the possible exception of Pierce being past their prime. 

The only missing dimension that I think Devin Harris would bring is foul drawing and foul shooting.  But this skill alone, when measured against his shortfalls in direct comparison with Rondo, hardly justify using Harris as a salary cap for Rondo, or for declaring him a player of identical or superior value.

Harris is a good example of what you can get if you look up a young player early, great value. Or if you prefer look at the value of Kendrick Perkins at 4 million per year.

Rondo played so well this post season though I don't see his agent settling for that sort of deal though.

[BballTim]

Rondo's next contract will be as much about his play as it is about Celtic's leverage.

As a restricted free agent during the 2010 bonanza, I really cannot see him comanding a ton of attention. Will anyone even offer him something beyond the MLE?

Solid Pointguards (2010):
ATL, CHA, CHI, CLE, DEN, DET, GSW, IND, LAC, MEM, MIL, NJ, NO, OKC, ORL, SAN, PHO, TOR, UTA, WAS

  That's extremely debatable. I don't know that ATL, CHA, DET are definitely set at pg, OKC and MIL may or may not pan out, WAS and GSW might decide that Arenas/Ellis are better at sg and DEN or PHO or LAC might not pass on the chance to get a pg of the future instead of just sticking with their mid-30s players. I think we can safely say that CHI, SA, NJ, ORL, SA and Utah are unliely to go for Rondo. The rest is a crap shoot. Rondo would be an upgrade for at least 10 of those teams

I agree that it is hard for me to project what will happen one year and two drafts from now (Lots of pointguards in this draft btw), so I see your point.

ATL is trying to resign Bibby. Plus no cap room
CHA has DJ Augustin & maybe Iverson?
DET just shipped its old PG for their new young one
OKC has Westbrook, who was great this season
MIL probably re-ups with Sessions. Plus no cap room
WAS Lacks serious cap space
GSW Lacks any cap space

Lots of truth to DEN, PHO, and LAC but there are cap space concerns in all three cities.

I agree that Rondo is an upgrade for a lot of those teams, but do you spend the money for do you drop $8+ million to upgrade a position that is filled on your roster? GM's that overallocate resources ($) to the same position get fired.

  You're assuming that young/rookie PGs will definitely work out, that Det is completely sold on Stuckey as a pg and that no teams are going to be able to swing any deals to free up cap space. Rondo's a pretty big chip to gamble that everything breaks in the Celtic's favor. And would you fire a GM for signing Rondo if your pg was someone like Nash or Billups or Davis, 2 years older than they are now?

As I mentioned, it is difficult to predict with certainty what will happen one year and two drafts from now, so I can only make predictions based on assumptions. Those assumptions are that some of the young/rookie pointguards will work out (or that their teams will not have given up on them), that Detroit IS completely sold on Stuckey (they traded Billups) and that so many teams are trying to cut payroll in this economy that it will become increasingly difficult and expensive (Talent & Picks) to do so.

On top of that, he will be a restricted free agent. The Celtics retain the ability to match any offer, so there really is no risk involved.

  Rondo's 23 and is one of the best PGs in the league. Everyone else that's as good or better than him is older and more experienced. I think it's ridiculous to expect that no team's going to offer him more than the MLE. And sure, he'll be a restricted free agent, and the Celts can match offers. But at what price? Will Rondo be a better player this year than last year? If so, his price will go up. Even if he's a restricted free agent other teams could still sign him which would probably push his price higher. The risk is that he costs more money, or that a team signs him to a high enough contract that the Celts won't match.

[the moops]

[quote author=billysan link=topic=29114.msg507749#msg507749 I also would make him shoot 100 FT every day with a coach to correct his technique, while hopefully improving his accuracy.
 
[/quote]
I am quite sure Rajon Rondo (and every NBA basketball player) already shoots at least 100 free throws everyday.

[BballTim]

Harris is a very good young PG locked into a reasonable deal.  When you start looking at the deals that TJ Ford, Mo Williams, and Jose Calderon got ... you start to realize that Harris is underpaid for his production.

I tend to look at PER to get a grasp of overall value. Rondo is a solid top 10 PG and I do believe his value is a little more than his PER would suggest.   

  Harris averaged 10/4 the year before he signed his contract. He averaged 15/6 the next year. If he'd signed signed a contract a year later he'd have gotten a much better deal. That's the risk in signing Rondo, who's stats (12/8 and 5 boards) are already well better than what Harris got when he was offered his contract and they'll probably be better next year.

[Fafnir]

I also would make him shoot 100 FT every day with a coach to correct his technique, while hopefully improving his accuracy.
 

I am quite sure Rajon Rondo (and every NBA basketball player) already shoots at least 100 free throws everyday.

Um, they really don't.

[Fafnir]

Harris is a very good young PG locked into a reasonable deal.  When you start looking at the deals that TJ Ford, Mo Williams, and Jose Calderon got ... you start to realize that Harris is underpaid for his production.

I tend to look at PER to get a grasp of overall value. Rondo is a solid top 10 PG and I do believe his value is a little more than his PER would suggest.   

  Harris averaged 10/4 the year before he signed his contract. He averaged 15/6 the next year. If he'd signed signed a contract a year later he'd have gotten a much better deal. That's the risk in signing Rondo, who's stats (12/8 and 5 boards) are already well better than what Harris got when he was offered his contract and they'll probably be better next year.

God bless PER, allowing us to dispense with actually watching a player to know how good he is..... 

[BballTim]

Harris is a very good young PG locked into a reasonable deal.  When you start looking at the deals that TJ Ford, Mo Williams, and Jose Calderon got ... you start to realize that Harris is underpaid for his production.

I tend to look at PER to get a grasp of overall value. Rondo is a solid top 10 PG and I do believe his value is a little more than his PER would suggest.   

  Harris averaged 10/4 the year before he signed his contract. He averaged 15/6 the next year. If he'd signed signed a contract a year later he'd have gotten a much better deal. That's the risk in signing Rondo, who's stats (12/8 and 5 boards) are already well better than what Harris got when he was offered his contract and they'll probably be better next year.

God bless PER, allowing us to dispense with actually watching a player to know how good he is..... 

  Either you misunderstood my (maybe not clear) post or I misunderstood your response, but 10/4, 15/6 and 12/8 were meant to be points/assists, as in Rondo averaging 12 points and 8 assists compared to Harris averaging 10 points and 4 assists before he signed his deal.

[Fafnir]

Harris is a very good young PG locked into a reasonable deal.  When you start looking at the deals that TJ Ford, Mo Williams, and Jose Calderon got ... you start to realize that Harris is underpaid for his production.

I tend to look at PER to get a grasp of overall value. Rondo is a solid top 10 PG and I do believe his value is a little more than his PER would suggest.   

  Harris averaged 10/4 the year before he signed his contract. He averaged 15/6 the next year. If he'd signed signed a contract a year later he'd have gotten a much better deal. That's the risk in signing Rondo, who's stats (12/8 and 5 boards) are already well better than what Harris got when he was offered his contract and they'll probably be better next year.

God bless PER, allowing us to dispense with actually watching a player to know how good he is..... 

  Either you misunderstood my (maybe not clear) post or I misunderstood your response, but 10/4, 15/6 and 12/8 were meant to be points/assists, as in Rondo averaging 12 points and 8 assists compared to Harris averaging 10 points and 4 assists before he signed his deal.

Sorry Tim I was responding more to the post you quoted than you, so my words were directed at timepiece33.