Jaylen's impending Free Agency could resemble the OKC Harden dilemma

[Fafnir]

Brown's floor is not Butler. He hasn't shown that level of ball skill and passing yet.

I do think he can get there, but that isn't his floor.

[jambr380]

It’s Ainges job to figure out (after 3 years of observations) what the optimal contract is that will keep jaylen here long term ...
The reasons he hasn’t offered jaylen a contract extension are:
-he has no idea what is jaylen worth
-He doesn’t think jaylen is worth the max and is hoping no team offers him the max.

I think brown will reject anything less than the max

If Ainge doesn't think Brown is currently worth the 5-yr max extension and Jaylen won't accept anything less than that, then obviously you let him just play out the year and see where everything lands next off-season.

If Brown proves he is worth the 5-yr max, you offer it to him and you have a star locked up for 5 years. If not (but he is still really good), you match a 3+1 max offered from another team and go from there.

RFA is one of the only real benefits teams have - no reason to get a 5-yr max signed now if there are real questions.

I remember reading that one of the reasons Hayward left Utah was that they didn’t offer him the 5 yr max when they could but let him go to teams and sign offers.

I have seen that reported, but oh well. Jaylen is coming off a season where he averaged fewer points on worse efficiency than in his 2nd season. While he still has a tremendous ceiling, I don't think you can automatically just 5-yr max a player who averaged 13ppg without some assurances that he is going to break into 'top 3 on a championship team' territory.

If Jaylen holds a grudge against the Cs for years to come after signing a max, then they can trade him before he hits FA. Either way, they will have a 4th year (this season) to judge whether or not to offer him a full 5-yr max with 8% raises or be forced to match a 3+1 with 5% raises from another team. If we offer him the former, but he still chooses the latter, then I guess we will know where his head is at and be able to plan for the future.

[Fan from VT]

Brown's floor is not Butler. He hasn't shown that level of ball skill and passing yet.

I do think he can get there, but that isn't his floor.

Yeah, i always find it bizarre when people say a player’s “floor” is significantly better than where they are now multiple all-star player. No. The “floor” is that he doesnt improve from where he is now. Not all players improve. I really hope he does, and he definitely can, but he took a step back last year, has some flaws, and is not guaranteed to be worth the max.

[IDreamCeltics]

Brown's floor is not Butler. He hasn't shown that level of ball skill and passing yet.

I do think he can get there, but that isn't his floor.

Yeah, i always find it bizarre when people say a player’s “floor” is significantly better than where they are now multiple all-star player. No. The “floor” is that he doesnt improve from where he is now. Not all players improve. I really hope he does, and he definitely can, but he took a step back last year, has some flaws, and is not guaranteed to be worth the max.

I think his floor right now is Jeff Green.  He'll play in the NBA for a long time.

[PhoSita]

Brown's floor is not Butler. He hasn't shown that level of ball skill and passing yet.

I do think he can get there, but that isn't his floor.

Yeah, i always find it bizarre when people say a player’s “floor” is significantly better than where they are now multiple all-star player. No. The “floor” is that he doesnt improve from where he is now. Not all players improve. I really hope he does, and he definitely can, but he took a step back last year, has some flaws, and is not guaranteed to be worth the max.

I think his floor right now is Jeff Green.  He'll play in the NBA for a long time.

Jaylen's already a much better spot up shooter than Green, and has demonstrated an ability to credibly defend guards and wings.  I think that already places him ahead of Green.

[gpap]

Brown's floor is not Butler. He hasn't shown that level of ball skill and passing yet.

I do think he can get there, but that isn't his floor.

Jaylen is more of a laminate floor kind of guy.

[Silky]

Brown's floor is not Butler. He hasn't shown that level of ball skill and passing yet.

I do think he can get there, but that isn't his floor.

Yeah, i always find it bizarre when people say a player’s “floor” is significantly better than where they are now multiple all-star player. No. The “floor” is that he doesnt improve from where he is now. Not all players improve. I really hope he does, and he definitely can, but he took a step back last year, has some flaws, and is not guaranteed to be worth the max.

I think his floor right now is Jeff Green.  He'll play in the NBA for a long time.

What?

Jaylen defends better. Shoots better. Plays harder. Is healthier. Is smarter

The only thing that jeff might be arguable better at was posting up and handling the ball.....maybe

[Moranis]

Brown's floor is not Butler. He hasn't shown that level of ball skill and passing yet.

I do think he can get there, but that isn't his floor.

Yeah, i always find it bizarre when people say a player’s “floor” is significantly better than where they are now multiple all-star player. No. The “floor” is that he doesnt improve from where he is now. Not all players improve. I really hope he does, and he definitely can, but he took a step back last year, has some flaws, and is not guaranteed to be worth the max.

I think his floor right now is Jeff Green.  He'll play in the NBA for a long time.

What?

Jaylen defends better. Shoots better. Plays harder. Is healthier. Is smarter

The only thing that jeff might be arguable better at was posting up and handling the ball.....maybe

I've posted this on here before, but here are the per 36 numbers for both Jaylen Brown and Jeff Green.

Year 1
13.8 p, 5.9 r, 1.7 a, 0.9 s, 0.5 b, 1.8 t, 3.8 f - 50.7 2PT, 34.1 3PT, 68.5 FT (53.9 TS)
13.4 p, 6.1 r, 1.9 a, 0.7 s, 0.8 b, 2.5 t, 3.2 f - 44.4 2PT, 27.6 3PT, 74.4 FT (49.1 TS)

Year 2
17.0 p, 5.8 r, 1.9 a, 1.2 s, 0.4 b, 2.1 t, 3.0 f - 50.7 2PT, 39.5 3PT, 64.4 FT (56.2 TS)
16.2 p, 6.5 r, 1.9 a, 1.0 s, 0.4 b, 2.2 t, 2.5 f - 46.3 2PT, 38.9 3PT, 78.8 FT (53.6 TS)

Year 3
18.1 p, 5.9 r, 1.9 a, 1.3 s, 0.6 b, 1.9 t, 3.5 f - 52.9 2PT, 34.4 3PT, 65.8 FT (54.7 TS)
14.7 p, 5.8 r, 1.6 a, 1.2 s, 0.9 b, 1.6 t, 2.6 f - 50.3 2PT, 33.3 3PT, 74.0 FT (53.0 TS)

Brown's reduced role helped with his per 36 totals in year 3 and he has started to separate a bit from Green overall, but also looking at the numbers you can see a general lack of real growth from Brown from year 2 to year 3 which is concerning as many players take a pretty decent jump from year 2 to year 3.  That said, not all do and get their big jump from year 3 to year 4.  So hopefully Brown takes that latter path and reaches that next level.

Also, Green was still starting and playing big minutes in year 3, though he was doing that at PF when he was always most clearly suited to play SF (very similar to Brown playing more at SG when I believe SF is his best position).  The Thunder also were going through pretty significant roster changes and trying to integrate all kinds of new players.  So many of the excuses for Brown's play last year also would have applied to Green.  Brown has performed a bit better overall, but not so much better that the Jeff Green comparisons are crazy either. 

[beantownboy171]

The OKC Harden dilemma was only a dilemma because it was OKC.

We will like be paying Brown the max salary slot following his free agency. Obviously his play this season will influence how we perceive him. But I fully expect Brown to earn that contract.

And have no doubt that Wyc will be willing to make that offer. Thankfully this offseason has given us a chance to reset our luxury tax calendar.

[saltlover]

Just a reminder to people concerned about Brown’s “lack of growth” or “regressions” from year 2 to year 3.  In addition to the tumult of finding his role early in the season, he was playing with an injured hand for much of November and through December. 

https://www.masslive.com/celtics/2018/12/boston-celtics-jaylen-browns-hand-injury-has-been-bothering-him-for-a-month-and-a-half.html

From January through the end of the season, he shot 39% from 3, looking much more like the player we expected after the 2017-2018 season, than he did from October to December when he shot 28% from 3, with his 2-point percentage also rising a little bit, from 51% to 54%.  On the defensive side, his steals/36 increased by 40% from Oct-Dec to Jan-April.

Don’t underestimate the role that his injury had in forming your opinions of his play last year.  It wasn’t the only thing going on, but since it didn’t cost him time on the court, it’s easy to forget it was bothering him for quite some time.

[chiken]

Brown's floor is not Butler. He hasn't shown that level of ball skill and passing yet.

I do think he can get there, but that isn't his floor.

Are you Comparing 3rd year Butler to 3rd Year Brown  or 3yr Brown to 9th year Butler?

[Fafnir]

Brown's floor is not Butler. He hasn't shown that level of ball skill and passing yet.

I do think he can get there, but that isn't his floor.

Are you Comparing 3rd year Butler to 3rd Year Brown  or 3yr Brown to 9th year Butler?

Year 3 to Year 3. Jimmy had already shown more passing chops and ball-handling ability at that point.

Better passing/handling is the low hanging fruit for both Jaylen and Jayson to improve upon.

[Muzzy66]

Brown's floor is not Butler. He hasn't shown that level of ball skill and passing yet.

I do think he can get there, but that isn't his floor.

Agreed, that is definitely nowhere near his floor.

Based on what he has shown so far Brown's floor is more like Jeff Green, with his ceiling being more like Jimmy Butler, with the more likely scenario being that he falls somewhere in the middle in Andre Iguodala / Trevor Ariza territory.

[Muzzy66]

Brown's floor is not Butler. He hasn't shown that level of ball skill and passing yet.

I do think he can get there, but that isn't his floor.

Are you Comparing 3rd year Butler to 3rd Year Brown  or 3yr Brown to 9th year Butler?

Year 3 to Year 3. Jimmy had already shown more passing chops and ball-handling ability at that point.

Better passing/handling is the low hanging fruit for both Jaylen and Jayson to improve upon.

Butler was also already a significantly better defensive player then Brown at this point in his career.  Butler made a name for himself defensively before anything else, and that defense effectively bought him the minutes to show what else he could do.  Brown has shown flashes of being a quality defender but nowhere near Butler's level and nowhere near the consistency.

[saltlover]

Brown's floor is not Butler. He hasn't shown that level of ball skill and passing yet.

I do think he can get there, but that isn't his floor.

Are you Comparing 3rd year Butler to 3rd Year Brown  or 3yr Brown to 9th year Butler?

Year 3 to Year 3. Jimmy had already shown more passing chops and ball-handling ability at that point.

Better passing/handling is the low hanging fruit for both Jaylen and Jayson to improve upon.

Butler was also already a significantly better defensive player then Brown at this point in his career.  Butler made a name for himself defensively before anything else, and that defense effectively bought him the minutes to show what else he could do.  Brown has shown flashes of being a quality defender but nowhere near Butler's level and nowhere near the consistency.

Butler also entered the NBA at 22, which is Jaylen’s current age, so he should have been more physically ready to defend early in his career.