Jaylen's impending Free Agency could resemble the OKC Harden dilemma

[Fafnir]

Although, if teams with big future assets blew the Celtics away with a sign and trade offer then I could see Jaylen not coming back.

Jaylen is going to get a max RFA offer baring some sort of calamity this season.

So the C's are going to shop him if they do not think he's a player worth 25% of your salary cap.

[Evantime34]

Although, if teams with big future assets blew the Celtics away with a sign and trade offer then I could see Jaylen not coming back.

Jaylen is going to get a max RFA offer baring some sort of calamity this season.

So the C's are going to shop him if they do not think he's a player worth 25% of your salary cap.

I agree with this, I was thinking something more similar to the Brogdon deal. Another team wants to make an offer on him but knows we will match so Boston would discuss a deal with them.

[saltlover]

Although, if teams with big future assets blew the Celtics away with a sign and trade offer then I could see Jaylen not coming back.

Jaylen is going to get a max RFA offer baring some sort of calamity this season.

So the C's are going to shop him if they do not think he's a player worth 25% of your salary cap.

I agree with this, I was thinking something more similar to the Brogdon deal. Another team wants to make an offer on him but knows we will match so Boston would discuss a deal with them.

I agree with both of this, although I expect the C’s, should they feel uncomfortable giving him the max, will try to move him before the extension deadline in October, and not wait to see if they can get something as a result of a S&T.  They have more leverage now, and the team acquiring Jaylen would get more value from him.

I hope that doesn’t happen, however, and that he’s a Celtic for a long time.

[Fierce1]

When you can match there is no rush to extend unless there is a team friendly discount. Brown could also be looking for a bigger role and may not want to extend unless he gets it.

If Hayward returns to All-Star form and Tatum becomes a 20-point scorer, Brown will not get a bigger role.

We all know Hayward is Brad's boy.

Tatum is better than Brown.

So Brown will just have to be content with whatever is given to him.

Tatum better than Brown is subjective. There are other things that Brown excels and Tatum is terrible.

Besides scoring, Tatum is better than Brown in rebounding and passing.

Brown is better on defense right now.

The deciding factor is length.

Tatum's length and wingspan gives him the overall advantage.

Brown is the better off ball scorer. He moves well without the ball in his hands.

Brown also appear to be more physical than Tatum who shy away from contact.

Brown also looks stronger than Tatum right now.

Both Tatum and Brown are below average passer. But Brown is a better decision maker with the ball marginally. Tatum settles too much on isolation pullups.

The Tatum vs. Brown debate is very subjective.

But here's the thing, every year there's always an elite 6-6 or 6-7 SG entering the draft.

Right now Tatum is not very physical because his body is not yet fully developed.

Jaylen Brown's body is already an NBA body.

It's looking like Ainge will not make a move anymore this summer.
This will give Brown a chance to prove he's worth keeping.
I think this coming season will determine whether Brown is a future All-Star or not.

May I ask why Jaylen has to prove his worth keeping (especially in his mind)?
His peer Jamal Murray already got the 5 yr max guaranteed and I’m sure most Celtics favs think brown is the superior player

Just look at Brown's draft class, Jamal Murray, Ben Simmons, Buddy Hield, and Siakam are already showing star potential.

Right now Jaylen is still considered "a player with potential" and it will be his 4th year in the league this coming season.

There's just no way the Celts will give Brown 34m per year based on potential alone.

[Fierce1]

As early as August we'll get somewhat of an answer regarding how good other basketball experts view Jaylen Brown's abilities.

If Team USA selects Tatum for the 12-man roster and Brown is not selected, that means Jaylen is not on the same level as Tatum.

Majority of basketball experts and analysts already see a future All-Star in Jayson Tatum.

[LilRip]

The better comparison in my mind is with Golden State and Harrison Barnes. Golden State was not going to max out Barnes, when they also had Curry, Thompson, and Green. Dallas knew this and gave Barnes a max contract, that they would later regret doing. Don’t get me wrong, I like Jaylen, but his level of playmaking skill is closer to Barnes, and nowhere near the level of Harden at this same point in their careers. Elite playmakers are those rare max type players that are deserving of the contract, whereas 3&D guys are simply not.

This!

I think I had brought up this parallelism too a month or so ago.

C’s cant afford to pay 4 max contracts. And we have 4 max contract worthy players in Kemba, Tatum, Brown, and Hayward. We’re keeping Steph Klay and Draymond (Kemba Tatum and Hayward). Someone will swoop in and pick up Harrison Barnes (Brown) regardless of how he plays this year.

[saltlover]

The better comparison in my mind is with Golden State and Harrison Barnes. Golden State was not going to max out Barnes, when they also had Curry, Thompson, and Green. Dallas knew this and gave Barnes a max contract, that they would later regret doing. Don’t get me wrong, I like Jaylen, but his level of playmaking skill is closer to Barnes, and nowhere near the level of Harden at this same point in their careers. Elite playmakers are those rare max type players that are deserving of the contract, whereas 3&D guys are simply not.

This!

I think I had brought up this parallelism too a month or so ago.

C’s cant afford to pay 4 max contracts. And we have 4 max contract worthy players in Kemba, Tatum, Brown, and Hayward. We’re keeping Steph Klay and Draymond (Kemba Tatum and Hayward). Someone will swoop in and pick up Harrison Barnes (Brown) regardless of how he plays this year.

Hayward’s max contract will be over by the time Tatum starts his.  Let’s allow Hayward to return to max contract form before assuming we can’t afford four max contract players.

[Moranis]

The better comparison in my mind is with Golden State and Harrison Barnes. Golden State was not going to max out Barnes, when they also had Curry, Thompson, and Green. Dallas knew this and gave Barnes a max contract, that they would later regret doing. Don’t get me wrong, I like Jaylen, but his level of playmaking skill is closer to Barnes, and nowhere near the level of Harden at this same point in their careers. Elite playmakers are those rare max type players that are deserving of the contract, whereas 3&D guys are simply not.

They let Barnes go to sign Durant.

[johnnygreen]

As early as August we'll get somewhat of an answer regarding how good other basketball experts view Jaylen Brown's abilities.

If Team USA selects Tatum for the 12-man roster and Brown is not selected, that means Jaylen is not on the same level as Tatum.

Majority of basketball experts and analysts already see a future All-Star in Jayson Tatum.

Not necessarily, as selecting one over the other may have more to do with roster construction than talent alone.

[Fierce1]

As early as August we'll get somewhat of an answer regarding how good other basketball experts view Jaylen Brown's abilities.

If Team USA selects Tatum for the 12-man roster and Brown is not selected, that means Jaylen is not on the same level as Tatum.

Majority of basketball experts and analysts already see a future All-Star in Jayson Tatum.

Not necessarily, as selecting one over the other may have more to do with roster construction than talent alone.

Like I said, it "somewhat" gives us an answer.

I didn't say it would give us a definite answer.

Here's thing, Team USA would never fail to include the Kobe Bryant of the 2000s just because of roster construction.

If the player is a great player, it's automatic he makes the team, roster construction or not.

[johnnygreen]

The better comparison in my mind is with Golden State and Harrison Barnes. Golden State was not going to max out Barnes, when they also had Curry, Thompson, and Green. Dallas knew this and gave Barnes a max contract, that they would later regret doing. Don’t get me wrong, I like Jaylen, but his level of playmaking skill is closer to Barnes, and nowhere near the level of Harden at this same point in their careers. Elite playmakers are those rare max type players that are deserving of the contract, whereas 3&D guys are simply not.

They let Barnes go to sign Durant.

I'm not certain Golden State knew they could get Durant, when they didn't match the offer from Dallas. I thought KD had his sit down with Golden State a few days after the start of free agency. However, I thought Dallas offered Barnes the max on day one of free agency, which started his clock for Golden State to match. If I recall, Golden State hadn't even met with KD during that matching time period. They were willing to let him walk because they knew he wasn't worth the money.

[saltlover]

The better comparison in my mind is with Golden State and Harrison Barnes. Golden State was not going to max out Barnes, when they also had Curry, Thompson, and Green. Dallas knew this and gave Barnes a max contract, that they would later regret doing. Don’t get me wrong, I like Jaylen, but his level of playmaking skill is closer to Barnes, and nowhere near the level of Harden at this same point in their careers. Elite playmakers are those rare max type players that are deserving of the contract, whereas 3&D guys are simply not.

They let Barnes go to sign Durant.

I'm not certain Golden State knew they could get Durant, when they didn't match the offer from Dallas. I thought KD had his sit down with Golden State a few days after the start of free agency. However, I thought Dallas offered Barnes the max on day one of free agency, which started his clock for Golden State to match. If I recall, Golden State hadn't even met with KD during that matching time period. They were willing to let him walk because they knew he wasn't worth the money.

This is not how things worked.  I don’t remember when Barnes came to an agreement with Dallas, but they wouldn’t have actually been able to sign an offer sheet, thus “starting the clock” until I think July 11th that year (maybe July 8th) after the moratorium ended.  Durant announced he was signing with Golden State on July 4th (that I’m positive about), and Golden State rescinded their QO to Barnes in response, so Dallas could sign him outright, no offer sheet necessary.

EDIT: The moratorium ended July 7th that year (was originally July 11th), but that was still after Durant had announced his intention to sign with Golden State.

[Smartacus]

The better comparison in my mind is with Golden State and Harrison Barnes. Golden State was not going to max out Barnes, when they also had Curry, Thompson, and Green. Dallas knew this and gave Barnes a max contract, that they would later regret doing. Don’t get me wrong, I like Jaylen, but his level of playmaking skill is closer to Barnes, and nowhere near the level of Harden at this same point in their careers. Elite playmakers are those rare max type players that are deserving of the contract, whereas 3&D guys are simply not.

They let Barnes go to sign Durant.

I'm not certain Golden State knew they could get Durant, when they didn't match the offer from Dallas. I thought KD had his sit down with Golden State a few days after the start of free agency. However, I thought Dallas offered Barnes the max on day one of free agency, which started his clock for Golden State to match. If I recall, Golden State hadn't even met with KD during that matching time period. They were willing to let him walk because they knew he wasn't worth the money.

This is not how things worked.  I don’t remember when Barnes came to an agreement with Dallas, but they wouldn’t have actually been able to sign an offer sheet, thus “starting the clock” until I think July 11th that year (maybe July 8th) after the moratorium ended.  Durant announced he was signing with Golden State on July 4th (that I’m positive about), and Golden State rescinded their QO to Barnes in response, so Dallas could sign him outright, no offer sheet necessary.

EDIT: The moratorium ended July 7th that year (was originally July 11th), but that was still after Durant had announced his intention to sign with Golden State.

Back when I wrote this thread I considered using the Barnes situation instead of Harden but because of the Durant factor I did not think the comparison is as clean as the OKC Harden. GS already knew they had his replacement and might have tried to keep Barnes since he was an original member of the 'death lineup'. They at least knew Barnes would have been a fit long term.

A big difference IMO is that despite getting paid by Dallas, Barnes did not really have the star potential that I could see a team like Atlanta thinking that Jaylen might. Barnes was at the time viewed as a contributor on an elite team but there wasn't really the lofty All Star expectations that I believe Jaylen may garner.

GS probably knew that letting Barnes walk wasn't going to hurt them too bad in the long term. Presti seemingly underestimated how badly losing Harden would end up hurting them and it's possible that DA could get similarly burned by letting Jaylen walk.

[Bobshot]

Ainge could be waiting for the right opportunity to trade Hayward, who is a heavy weight on the cap.
That opportunity could come if Hayward shows further improvement early.

Danny needs to get out of that contract to have freedom to sign younger players like Brown and Tatum.

[saltlover]

Ainge could be waiting for the right opportunity to trade Hayward, who is a heavy weight on the cap.
That opportunity could come if Hayward shows further improvement early.

Danny needs to get out of that contract to have freedom to sign younger players like Brown and Tatum.

No he doesn’t.  They could offer max extensions to Brown and Tatum and keep Hayward to the end of his deal and not be a tax team.