Author Topic: Who Do You Take At #5?  (Read 9138 times)

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Re: Who Do You Take At #5?
« Reply #60 on: April 11, 2017, 06:24:57 AM »

Offline chambers

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If team was getting Hayward and losing KO would Markkanen be in the conversation at 4?

Nah Markkanen is not going that high. Defense is pretty poor and he's soft as butter vs opponents with any kind of strength or physicality. He reminds me of Bargani and is going to disappoint whoever drafts him IMO.

Isaac gets into the convo in your scenario tho.
"We are lucky we have a very patient GM that isn't willing to settle for being good and coming close. He wants to win a championship and we have the potential to get there still with our roster and assets."

quoting 'Greg B' on RealGM after 2017 trade deadline.
Read that last line again. One more time.

Re: Who Do You Take At #5?
« Reply #61 on: April 11, 2017, 03:38:38 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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This was a pretty unnecessary panic thread. Glad to see it is retired already.

Oh, come on, Clay.  There was a fairly significant chance of the Nets not ending up with sole possession of the worst record in the league, which would open the door for #5.

It was worth discussing, and was by no means a "panic" thread.  I felt it was interesting to discuss, because to me it seems like there's a clear top 4 in this draft and after that I'm not sure who I'd take.

Given the fact that not everybody agrees on that top 4, this is still a valid discussion since the Celts could very well end up with pick #3 or 4.

Phosita I really got to disagree with you on this. The Nets are finishing at least 3 full games behind the Suns and at least 4 behind the Lakers. Strictly on math and expected win expectancy it was never higher than a snowball chance in he double hockey stucks. This was pretty much the definition of a panic thread because it overreacted to the Nets stringing some wins together and lost sight of the actual math involved. By the way, in case you are curious both the Suns and Lakers are again considered 50 50 to win their games again tonight. When it gets to the end of the season it becomes near impossible for teams to completely lose out because other teams are resting and not trying either. That is why the premise the Lakers would end the season on a 15 game losing streak and the Nets would start playing .800% ball was panic.

Re: Who Do You Take At #5?
« Reply #62 on: April 11, 2017, 03:56:48 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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This was a pretty unnecessary panic thread. Glad to see it is retired already.

Oh, come on, Clay.  There was a fairly significant chance of the Nets not ending up with sole possession of the worst record in the league, which would open the door for #5.

It was worth discussing, and was by no means a "panic" thread.  I felt it was interesting to discuss, because to me it seems like there's a clear top 4 in this draft and after that I'm not sure who I'd take.

Given the fact that not everybody agrees on that top 4, this is still a valid discussion since the Celts could very well end up with pick #3 or 4.

Phosita I really got to disagree with you on this. The Nets are finishing at least 3 full games behind the Suns and at least 4 behind the Lakers. Strictly on math and expected win expectancy it was never higher than a snowball chance in he double hockey stucks. This was pretty much the definition of a panic thread because it overreacted to the Nets stringing some wins together and lost sight of the actual math involved. By the way, in case you are curious both the Suns and Lakers are again considered 50 50 to win their games again tonight. When it gets to the end of the season it becomes near impossible for teams to completely lose out because other teams are resting and not trying either. That is why the premise the Lakers would end the season on a 15 game losing streak and the Nets would start playing .800% ball was panic.


You'll notice I didn't phrase the original post like:


OH MY GOD THE NETS ARE WINNING?!?!?!?!?!?!  THE LAKERS AND SUNS ARE GONNA LOSE OUT!!!!  WE WON'T GET THE TOP PICK?!!?!!?!?!??!

AHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!




Rather, I noticed that things were getting kind a close -- as in, the Nets were only "up" a game or two on the Lakers within something like 10-15 games remaining -- and it seemed at least "plausible" that the Nets might not end up with sole possession of the worst record.


Because of that, it seemed worth talking about the possibility that the Celts might end up at #5.  Particularly, I felt it was worth talking about because to me there is a clear cut top 4 in this draft.  But what if we don't get a shot at that top 4?  Or what if we end up picking 3rd or 4th and Danny has different ideas about who is in that top 4?


In March / April, with not a lot of other things to talk about -- unless you want to entertain another "Should Isaiah be traded?" thread -- I felt like this was something worth a page or two of discussion on the forum.


I know you're generally sensitive about pessimism related to the Nets picks, but calling this a panic thread and panning the entire conversation is a bit extreme, it seems to me.
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Re: Who Do You Take At #5?
« Reply #63 on: April 11, 2017, 04:27:37 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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This was a pretty unnecessary panic thread. Glad to see it is retired already.

Oh, come on, Clay.  There was a fairly significant chance of the Nets not ending up with sole possession of the worst record in the league, which would open the door for #5.

It was worth discussing, and was by no means a "panic" thread.  I felt it was interesting to discuss, because to me it seems like there's a clear top 4 in this draft and after that I'm not sure who I'd take.

Given the fact that not everybody agrees on that top 4, this is still a valid discussion since the Celts could very well end up with pick #3 or 4.

Phosita I really got to disagree with you on this. The Nets are finishing at least 3 full games behind the Suns and at least 4 behind the Lakers. Strictly on math and expected win expectancy it was never higher than a snowball chance in he double hockey stucks. This was pretty much the definition of a panic thread because it overreacted to the Nets stringing some wins together and lost sight of the actual math involved. By the way, in case you are curious both the Suns and Lakers are again considered 50 50 to win their games again tonight. When it gets to the end of the season it becomes near impossible for teams to completely lose out because other teams are resting and not trying either. That is why the premise the Lakers would end the season on a 15 game losing streak and the Nets would start playing .800% ball was panic.


You'll notice I didn't phrase the original post like:


OH MY GOD THE NETS ARE WINNING?!?!?!?!?!?!  THE LAKERS AND SUNS ARE GONNA LOSE OUT!!!!  WE WON'T GET THE TOP PICK?!!?!!?!?!??!

AHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!




Rather, I noticed that things were getting kind a close -- as in, the Nets were only "up" a game or two on the Lakers within something like 10-15 games remaining -- and it seemed at least "plausible" that the Nets might not end up with sole possession of the worst record.


Because of that, it seemed worth talking about the possibility that the Celts might end up at #5.  Particularly, I felt it was worth talking about because to me there is a clear cut top 4 in this draft.  But what if we don't get a shot at that top 4?  Or what if we end up picking 3rd or 4th and Danny has different ideas about who is in that top 4?


In March / April, with not a lot of other things to talk about -- unless you want to entertain another "Should Isaiah be traded?" thread -- I felt like this was something worth a page or two of discussion on the forum.


I know you're generally sensitive about pessimism related to the Nets picks, but calling this a panic thread and panning the entire conversation is a bit extreme, it seems to me.

If you are willing to acknowledge that the odds of this were like .25* .015* .25 yea fine. My issue was that you lost site of the math on it. The Nets are still 5-4 in their last 9 which was incredible, but they didn't even get close. The odds of the compound event of them winning 8 out of 9 compounded with the odds of the Lakers not winning a game in their last 10 against tanking teams compounded with the odds of the second worst record then getting jumped by 3 teams, but the 3 teams being different teams than the 1 team already above it to end up at 5.. Well we are more likely to see a 50 point 20 rebound game from Jerekbro.

Anyways, didn't mean ill will towards you. You know you are one of my favorite posters.

Re: Who Do You Take At #5?
« Reply #64 on: April 11, 2017, 04:43:43 PM »

Offline SHAQATTACK

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Ball

Re: Who Do You Take At #5?
« Reply #65 on: April 11, 2017, 04:51:36 PM »

Offline Csfan1984

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If team was getting Hayward and losing KO would Markkanen be in the conversation at 4?

Nah Markkanen is not going that high. Defense is pretty poor and he's soft as butter vs opponents with any kind of strength or physicality. He reminds me of Bargani and is going to disappoint whoever drafts him IMO.

Isaac gets into the convo in your scenario tho.
I see more Dirk in him. A positive I see is he does have a decent feel for rebounding and plays on his toes. His defense isn't what a team is going to draft him for. He put up monster scoring efficiency #s for a freshman.

Re: Who Do You Take At #5?
« Reply #66 on: April 15, 2017, 02:39:01 PM »

Offline drogbagarnett

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I just wanna say how relieved I am that this thread topic has become irrelevant.


Although we could still end up at #4 and perhaps Ainge ends up taking somebody outside of what looks like a pretty well established top 4 from my point of view.

Curious to know who is in your "pretty well established" top 4...??

To me anything other than Markelle or Josh would be a little disappointment... Who is the fourth name I should be happy with (assuming you have Ball in your top 4, I personally dont like how he fits with us...)
The fourth guy is Tatum, who I agree is in the top tier. There is a minority of people that have him higher than everyone but Fultz.  The intriguing thing for me is that he is younger than someone like Jackson.  Youth equals potential.
in some espn mocks, they have monk at 4th and smith 5th, above tatum

I disagree with espn there

After looking at it closely, I agree with you guys!
Tatum is a great pick! Definitely now in my top 3.
However, I do have Markkanen as my 4th pick (not interested in Ball at all!)

Re: Who Do You Take At #5?
« Reply #67 on: April 15, 2017, 02:41:45 PM »

Offline drogbagarnett

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If team was getting Hayward and losing KO would Markkanen be in the conversation at 4?
To me he is! I would be happy to take him 4th if Flutz, Tatum and Jackson are gone, even if KO stays...