CelticsStrong
Celtics Basketball => Celtics Talk => Topic started by: droopdog7 on January 17, 2018, 12:31:22 PM
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For all his athletic gifts, he's trending toward good, complimentary player, but not a star. I know part of this has to do with his role on the team but he should not be taking as many three pointers as he does. I suppose the free throw shooting may be getting to him but he's settling way too much.
His game is not very advanced (shaky handle, okay jumper, lacks go to moves). He'll improve over time but and get better. But much of his offensive game is (mostly likely) too delayed to consider him a star in the making.
Which is just fine, as not everyone can be a star nor does a championship level team have to have all stars. Jaylen's defense and versatility are very valuable at the very least.
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For all his athletic gifts, he's trending toward good, complimentary player, but not a star. I know part of this has to do with his role on the team but he should not be taking as many three pointers as he does. I suppose the free throw shooting may be getting to him but he's settling way too much.
His game is not very advanced (shaky handle, okay jumper, lacks go to moves). He'll improve over time but and get better. But much of his offensive game is (mostly likely) too delayed to consider him a star in the making.
Which is just fine, as not everyone can be a star nor does a championship level team have to have all stars. Jaylen's defense and versatility are very valuable at the very least.
I have no problem with a "complementary player" that can give you 15 ppg, can shoot the three, and play shutdown defense at multiple positions. There aren't all that many of those in the NBA.
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He is averaging 14.5 points with good defense in what would be his junior year of college. Also on a team that probably will have two all stars. Why write off his star potential? If he was on magic replacing Fournier he would probably be averaging 17-18 right now.
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He is averaging 14.5 points with good defense in what would be his junior year of college. Also on a team that probably will have two all stars. Why write off his star potential? If he was on magic replacing Fournier he would probably be averaging 17-18 right now.
I’d hope he could crack 20 on that Magic team. I don’t find Aaron Gordon to be super skilled and he’s doing just fine at a pretty young age relying on little more than athleticism with poor efficiency.
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He's not a star yet, but he's a starter on a 50 win team in his second season.
I agree that his handle and FT% are still shaky, but his handle is way improved from last season.
Also, why do you think he's taking too many threes? He's shooting 39% from 3 this season.
He's not a Unicorn like Tatum, but he still has potential to be a star in the NBA if he continues on his current trajectory for a couple more seasons.
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Odd for me to read this today. I watched closely and Jaylen impressed me a lot with a lot of the little things during the Pelicans game. The game is just starting to slow down for him.
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The trend is up for Jaylen Brown. There is no reason to start looking for a ceiling. There is no way that anyone would be able to set a ceiling on him anyway. He could be near his ceiling now (doubtful) or he could keep improving for 5 years. There is no possible way to be sure.
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He’s shooting 39% on 4.5 three pointers a game, but somehow he’s taking too many? I don’t have a problem at all with his three point shooting, especially because it seems like the majority of them come from the corners.
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I have a problem with Smart and Rozier taking so many 3's...
Between the two of them, they took a total of 15 3PA. That is just too much for two players..
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Disagree. He looks like a future star to me. He's young. Jimmy Butler went to Juco then played through his senior year at Marquette. Jaylen is more advanced than Jimmy Buckets when comparing them at similar ages.
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It's premature to say he will or won't be a star. He's 1.5 seasons in after being one-and-done and he's made a big jump this year.
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My issue with the volume of threes is that Jaylen could be putting more pressure on the defense; getting easier even better shots and otherwise causing havoc. A guy like him should never take a contested three point shot. It people have to close out on him, he should attack the basket.
I understand I am nitpicking but the three ball comment is not the crux of my argument. More to do with where I see his future potential based on his skill set. And part of the point of making projections is doing so BEFORE the outcome has been more or less set.
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I've always thought Demar Derozan is a upper end comp for Jaylen. He has great tools, as does Derozan, but I'm not sure he has quite the feel, instincts, etc. to become a super duper star.
I could see him making steady incremental improvements each year like Derozan did, but maybe never quite being that franchise altering talent like Kawhi, KD, Towns, etc.
That would definitely not be a bad player to have for many years into the future.
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I've always thought Demar Derozan is a upper end comp for Jaylen. He has great tools, as does Derozan, but I'm not sure he has quite the feel, instincts, etc. to become a super duper star.
I could see him making steady incremental improvements each year like Derozan did, but maybe never quite being that franchise altering talent like Kawhi, KD, Towns, etc.
That would definitely not be a bad player to have for many years into the future.
For what it is worth some are starting to say that Derozen should be MVP this year. He is the best player on one of the best teams in the league by quite a bit.
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Or he looks like Jimmy Butler. Actually, better than Jimmy, based on their second seasons... during which Jimmy was two years older than Jaylen is now.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.fcgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1_hint=Jaylen+Brown&player_id1_select=Jaylen+Brown&player_id1=brownja02&y1=2018&player_id2_hint=Jimmy+Butler&player_id2_select=Jimmy+Butler&player_id2=butleji01&y2=2013
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Can we stop with the Jimmy Butler comparisons. His career trajectory is the exception, not the rule.
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Why stop? Jaylen has been better than Jimmy Butler at basketball almost every year through 21 years.
Butler was a late bloomer, but why can't Jaylen become as good of a basketball player. I think they have similar attributes.
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If he fixes the following he will be great
- Ball handling
- Free throws
- Fast break situations with atleast 1 defender in front (goes a long way with ball handling).
Every game he makes 1 or 2 stupid mistakes which a player with his intellect should definitely not make! As he is a very smart guy.
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Aren't his stats better than Paul George's through his first 2 years? I mean, he has only been in the league a year and a half. Think of where Avery was at the same point.
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The things he doesn't do well are the easiest to fix. He has well below average footwork. He does not know how to set up a defender to beat them off the dribble. He also doesn't read help defense well at at all, so he often drives into a pileup of defenders. Everyone who stays in the league always gets better at this stuff as they get older.
Despite this, he's scoring 14+ per game efficiently as a 21 year old. He can shoot quite well and can finish above the rim through contact. His balance is excellent. He's super fast and super strong. Most importantly he's really smart, works very hard and always shakes off the last play immediately.
He's going to be a great player.
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Um, what?
He's 21 and already an *efficient* 14/6 two-way player. He's nowhere near his prime. There are only a small handful of players that good, that young.
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Why stop? Jaylen has been better than Jimmy Butler at basketball almost every year through 21 years.
Butler was a late bloomer, but why can't Jaylen become as good of a basketball player. I think they have similar attributes.
I really don’t get the comparisons to Butler other than similar build, well Brown still has a little ways to go to be rock solid like Butler, and that Brown has defensive potential like Butler.
On offense though Butler has a much more refined game with his dribbling, mid range, and post game playing mostly below the rim using power.
Brown on the other hand plays more above the rim while already seems like a better 3 point shooter. Much more raw, but if he gets a step on his man might be more explosive.
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Ya I really don't get this thread. I mean Jaylen might never become a star but he has shown major improvement from year 1 to 2 and is only 21 so if the trend continues he certainly could get there. As others have pointed out his numbers are better than Jimmy Butlers and similar to George or Hayward at the same age. The things he needs to work on ate all area that generally improve naturally with age like footwork, feel for the game, finishing in traffic. His handle has already gotten better and given how fast he is with the ball (doesn't lose a lot of speed when dribbling) he has some promise as a ball handler. He has manged to improve both usage and efficiency this year, very difficult do. Even if he never improves at all he is still a very good pro player and the perfect player who can help fight the warriors. He should take more threes if anything.
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Too early to tell but you have to say his ceiling is probably top 20 player in the league. His work ethic and intelligence makes it hard for me to believe he won't meet that ceiling.
Heck, his growth just from the beginning of the year to now can be seen. He fights through picks better, plays much better in the switching scheme, his ability to finish with contact is miles better and just recently he has really been doing a great job of passing to the open man when during his drives he gets shut down.
At 21, I find it hard to believe he won't get way better while playing winning basketball and not just posting numbers on a bad team.
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I'm just glad nobody's using a team-first Ricky Davis (never was there such a thing) as a comp.
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... he should not be taking as many three pointers as he does. I suppose the free throw shooting may be getting to him but he's settling way too much.
You can count on that his 3-pt frequency has the full backing of the coaching staff, given how well he shoots it and how often he gets to the rim. .354 of his shots are at the rim, and he's shooting an excellent .634 on those. He gets to the line frequently, just above the gold-standard .300, at .301 per FG attempt. Given that, it's hard to justify a claim that he's avoiding getting fouled, or settling for the jumper.
In any given lineup he's probably no better than the third option, so his reliably excellent outside shot is opening up driving lanes and spread pick and rolls for his teammates.
...shaky handle...
I've heard people claim this before, but given how often he puts it on the deck and how good his turnover % is, I can't say I could go along with it.
...okay jumper...
Really? His numbers say otherwise. Short midrange (10-16) he's shooting .450 (compare to Tatum at .455); Long Midrange he's shooting an excellent .485 (handily beating out Tatum at .456).
...lacks go to moves...
I won't insult you... you're wrong. He's highly skilled and has a wide repertoire.
But much of his offensive game is (mostly likely) too delayed to consider him a star in the making.
He's 21. His 2pt% is .518 and his 3pt% is .387; he gets to the line at .301 FTrate; he's got a wide repertoire of moves off the dribble, runs like a deer, and has a very acceptable turnover rate of 11.5%.
Did I mention that he's 21?
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Why stop? Jaylen has been better than Jimmy Butler at basketball almost every year through 21 years.
Butler was a late bloomer, but why can't Jaylen become as good of a basketball player. I think they have similar attributes.
I really don’t get the comparisons to Butler other than similar build, well Brown still has a little ways to go to be rock solid like Butler, and that Brown has defensive potential like Butler.
On offense though Butler has a much more refined game with his dribbling, mid range, and post game playing mostly below the rim using power.
Brown on the other hand plays more above the rim while already seems like a better 3 point shooter. Much more raw, but if he gets a step on his man might be more explosive.
Similar build, defense-first with high offensive potential, high motor, good IQ. Also Jaylen Brown trained with Jimmy Butler a summer or two ago.
Also, the thing with comparisons is that now players have these guys to look at - ultimately Jaylen Brown will end up being... Jaylen Brown. But if you don't think Jaylen's going to look to Jimmy's game and trajectory and say, "That could be me," you're crazy. (Not that you're saying that.)
So that means to me that this comparison isn't, like, a pure thing and more of - where does Jaylen look, how does he think of himself and how is his role similar to other players of this era.
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... just recently he has really been doing a great job of passing to the open man when during his drives he gets shut down.
Definitely a growth area for him, along with free throw shooting.
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He's much better this year than last year. And when players improve from 19 to 20, they generally keep improving. It's the ones who don't improve who worry you.
Comparing him to other players with a similar profile (athletic wings with shooting questions coming out of school), a lot of them seem to be plateauing at lower levels. Take Winslow, or Johnson, or MKG. Those guys never developed any offensive skills, while JB has already surpassed them.
One thing that really looks good about him this year is mid-range shooting. He hits that little pull-up at a very good rate (45% from 10-16 ft, 49% from 16-20 ft). Much improved from last year. As is his 3pt shooting. Both are very much improved from college. Yes the FT shooting is a concern, but I actually view that as more fixable than the other two.
The upshot for me: I think he has another year or two of significant development. I don't know where that leaves him, but I think it's trending better than "very good role player."
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Instead of making a new thread, I'll just ask this here. If Brown ends up being Harrison Barnes 2.0 would you consider that a bust?
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Instead of making a new thread, I'll just ask this here. If Brown ends up being Harrison Barnes 2.0 would you consider that a bust?
Absolutely not. Replaceable, if circumstances require it - yes. A bust - no way. Barnes is a valuable player on a team, as long as he isn't the best player on a team.
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I have a problem with Smart and Rozier taking so many 3's...
Between the two of them, they took a total of 15 3PA. That is just too much for two players..
THIS^^^
Tatum isn't a problem and Brown will improve.
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I am thrilled with Brown's progress, and when we made that pick, I was one of the people who wasn't happy with it.....hopeful, but not happy.
I watched almost all of Brown's (and Rabb's) games at Cal.
They had one real suck coach in Cuonzo Martin. He stunted both their developments, and, I think ruined Rabb.
Not only was old Cuonzo a lousy teacher of the game, he was a crap tactician.
He misused both Brown and Rabb, and except for Jabari Bird, rarely surrounded Brown with shooters that he had at his disposal, which would've helped Brown's game tremendously.
Rather, he would send Brown to the right corner, and either have him shoot the 3 or drive to the basket, often double teamed and often pushing off with his left arm, especially when he got in the paint.
Brown was a stud coming out of high school and got WORSE in some aspects of his game at Cal. This from Draftexpress:
The sizeable role Brown played in Cal's oversized but underskilled lineups shined a spotlight on the good and bad elements of his offensive game, particularly in the half court. Coming out of the high school ranks with the reputation as a productive scorer, Brown shot 52% inside the arc, 39% from deep, and 70% from the line in the 50 games of stats we have for him in our database spanning his three seasons on the summer circuit at the prep level. Flashing the ability to make jump shots with range, but doing most of his damage as a slasher, the Georgia native with nothing short of spectacular at times on the AAU circuit.
Shooting 48% inside the arc, 29% from three, and 65% from the line for the Golden Bears, Brown didn't have the easiest time translating his game to the college ranks. With 51% of his shot attempts in the half court coming from the perimeter, the mechanical issues with Brown's jump shot became clear. Timing his release differently shot-to-shot whether he's pulling up off the bounce under pressure or shooting catch and shoot jumpers in space, Brown's mechanics are not particularly reliable at this stage. He casually fades away on some attempts unnecessarily, sometimes holding the ball longer than others at the top of his shot. His combination of mechanical issues resulted in the unimpressive 31% he shot from the perimeter overall.
http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Jaylen-Brown-NBA-Draft-Scouting-Report-and-Video-Breakdown-5477/
That regression in college was on Cuonzo.
Brown's defense, 3 point shooting and finishing have improved substantially in just a year and a half.
Let's not judge Brown's progress on Tatum's. Not saying that that is what's being done here, but that's an easy trap to fall into.
Hated the pick....love it now. Danny saw what Brown was and can be and looked past that year of regression at Cal.
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As many have alluded to already, there are different types of stars and different paths to stardom... Jaylen seems to be on the track similar to a Jimmy Butler/ Kawhi Leonard type... where they progressively improve there game season by season till they have very few weaknesses... his handles have improved greatly and his 3-point shot is reliable and respected. He already plays stellar defense and his athleticism is just starting to shine through.
Tatum reminds me more of a Tracy McGrady type... both will be stars... hopefully for the Celtics
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As many have said I see Jaylen as a future all star.
He's young and starting for one of the best teams in nba. His game is solid, plays within team game and is improving. Go through best defensive sg in east and see where you rank "the kid". Also his work ethic makes me think his ceiling should be listed as unknown. His ppg compared to shots shows efficiency.
Irving (still young) , Tatum and Brown ahhhhh
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doesn't make sense to put a limit on a players potential in year 2. Heck, look at gordon haywards first and second year. It takes time for guys to develop.
Now, if he comes out next year and looks like the same player as this year with no improvement, i'll be there right with you. But the improvement shown from last year to this leads me to believe he will work on his weaknesses
BUT, even if he stays at the level he is now he is a valuable NBA player
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Instead of making a new thread, I'll just ask this here. If Brown ends up being Harrison Barnes 2.0 would you consider that a bust?
He's better on both ends right now. At 21.
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I have a problem with Smart and Rozier taking so many 3's...
Between the two of them, they took a total of 15 3PA. That is just too much for two players..
THIS^^^
Tatum isn't a problem and Brown will improve.
I could see the objection to Smart shooting 3's, but Rozier is shooting .364, which is solid/very good. Jaylen at .387 is excellent, and Tatum is off the charts.
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I know Jaylen has a lot of warts but has shown a lot of improvement this year. He may become a star. My only real problem with him at this stage of his career - I want him to be more aggressive.
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I know Jaylen has a lot of warts but has shown a lot of improvement this year. He may become a star. My only real problem with him at this stage of his career - I want him to be more aggressive.
Hmmm, and those warts are ??, certainly not lack of aggressiveness. He routinely drives into traffic to make something happen at the rim. His career FG% is 51% and improving this year, not bad. His 3FG% is 39% and improving this year, not bad. His one main wart is FT shooting, which has dropped from last year (69%) to this year (56%). It doesn't make sense for FT% to drop that much, especially in a young player, so I see this as psychological. If that drop had not happened, we would not even be having this conversation.
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I think Brown is going to be a good two way player for a long time (he already is) and he made a pretty nice leap in year two. His main weakness are creative ball handling, free throw shooting, and playmakinng (which may be because of his lack of handle or the opportunity.). I’m very happy we have Jaylen Brown and I’m fairly confident he will make a few all star games
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He's come a long way from last year. He's only in his second season after playing in a fairly spare college system for one season.
How much might he add to his game between this year and next? Let's wait until he's up for his second contract, at least, before reaching conclusions about what kind of player he can be.
Just look at Aaron Gordon, for example, or Bradley Beal. Plenty of guys take a few more before making a leap. The good news is that Jaylen is already a valuable player, and he never adds too much more to his game, he could still be a player like Wes Matthews or Otto Porter, which is pretty valuable.
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I know Jaylen has a lot of warts but has shown a lot of improvement this year. He may become a star. My only real problem with him at this stage of his career - I want him to be more aggressive.
Hmmm, and those warts are ??, certainly not lack of aggressiveness. He routinely drives into traffic to make something happen at the rim. His career FG% is 51% and improving this year, not bad. His 3FG% is 39% and improving this year, not bad. His one main wart is FT shooting, which has dropped from last year (69%) to this year (56%). It doesn't make sense for FT% to drop that much, especially in a young player, so I see this as psychological. If that drop had not happened, we would not even be having this conversation.
There's another wart, which is playmaking. This is surprising if you watch him for a few games; you wouldn't say that he's unselfish, and he can deliver some nifty passes. But his assist rate is low.
The myth of his poor ballhandling persists. I'm mystified why this continues. Last year it made more sense - though it would have been better to say, even then, that he was a brilliant ballhandler who "needs to tighten up", as Jeff Van Gundy said. This year the claim that he's a poor ballhandler is harder to justify.
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I don't know if he'll be a star, but he's already pretty good. Much improved from last year.
I think the problem is that some people compare him to Tatum, so he doesn't look quite so impressive. I mean he's two years older and in his second year as opposed to the rookie. I think if you just look at his game and consider he just turned 21, he's pretty impressive. Excellent defender, good finisher, much improved shooter, outstanding athlete.
He also appears to be a really hard worker. IF he improves his FT shooting and handle, I see no reason he couldn't be an all-star. The only thing standing in his way is the other players on this team. With Irving, Haywood, Horford, and Tatum it might be hard to get enough shots to be considered for all-star team. But that won't matter, because that team wins it all.
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Not yet but it's only his second year. Usually big jumps can come in the next couple years for a player. Jaylen is so athletic that if he, for example, builds up confident and execution in finishing around the rim, he could score a lot of points. He can already get to the rim almost any time in a physical sense (he bowled through Cousins last game for an and-1) but he needs the finesse and handle to just consistently finish.
If he adds a floater type shot, he could score a lot of points. If he improves his FTs, he can more confidently attack and know he will be scoring points.
His handle does need to improve but in a lot of ways, just needs to be smarter. He tries to do too much when in reality keeping it simple when you're that long and athletic is better. He should look at Tatum who so far has mainly just used an in and out crossover and it works. He really should look at Hayward when he comes back, who has become a playmaker with simple but smart and fast moves that use his athleticism. Jaylen's passing has a lot of room to grow but that can come as well, so he can at least be solid.
His defense is great and his shooting also helps out other players. But if he makes improvements in areas I outlined above, which to me seems very possible, he will be a star player.
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Just look at Aaron Gordon, for example, or Bradley Beal. Plenty of guys take a few more before making a leap. The good news is that Jaylen is already a valuable player, and he never adds too much more to his game, he could still be a player like Wes Matthews or Otto Porter, which is pretty valuable.
I like Beal for an example because he has always been talented so you can see what he added, a lot of it being off the dribble. This year he is so much better off the dribble and it has opened up his game.
Porter has solidly gotten better every year as well. I appreciate watching guys like that, who you can see evolve over the years.
Jaylen seems to work hard and so far he is on that kind of path. When he came in I did think he would be a stud going to the rim (and he can be, although has inconsistently) but his 3 point shooting for example has been a great surprise to see be a strength. I think it shows him intelligently thinking about his game. Seems like a smart guy so no surprise.
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If Jaylen was an 80% FT shooter instead of a 56% FT shooter he would be averaging 1 more PPG. Gotta fix that free throw shooting.
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Boys and girls..... the kid has made steps forward this year... many... let him grow... he will be a cornerstone player at the age of 24... he is already one of the best defenders in his position... and his ball handling will improve every year
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For the record, I will go ahead and define "star". If we set an over-under of 2 all-star appearances, I am going to take the under. Like I said, I'm not trying to kill the guy because I think he can be a good player on a good team. Maybe a third best player on a good team.
I just don't see a multiple all-star due to some glaring weaknesses related to his handle (which is still basic and loose) and his feel for the game.
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I think too early to say on way or another. He's made a giant leap this year compared to last year so that is a step in the right direction. The key is whether he can continue to make incremental leaps over the next couple of years. If so, I dont see why he cant be an all star type player.
He definitely has some holes/issues to figure out as mentioned by some in the thread already. Just have to hope the Cs develop him properly. He has a good head on his shoulder and good work ethic. I guess at worst, he could be a 3 and D guy.
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In Jaylen's second season he is currently averaging a similar stat-line to Jae Crowder at his best, while also playing a comparable level of defense (In my opinion). While Crowder was never a star he was a valuable 3-D player and Brown is that now. He is a decent starter now and with how strong his work ethic is, I really doubt he will fail to improve throughout his career. He only needs to improve a couple more skills and he is an all-star and I'm expecting it to happen many times.
Tatum is the new toy so everyone forgot about Brown, but I am more interested in and think Brown's ceiling is higher than Tatum's.
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If Jaylen was an 80% FT shooter instead of a 56% FT shooter he would be averaging 1 more PPG. Gotta fix that free throw shooting.
^^This. I am pleased with Jaylen's progress this year except the free throws. It just drives me absolutely insane when he consistently clunks the first free throw. They are easy to practice and he is a very smart kid so why doesn't he improve in this area?
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Jaylen is a couple of skills away from being a star: ball handling and FTs. The free throws seem fixable. I hope he tightens up his handle next year.
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Jaylen is a couple of skills away from being a star: ball handling and FTs. The free throws seem fixable. I hope he tightens up his handle next year.
pretty much. His handles are already better this year than last year, but still lacking. He fixes that, then alot of those lost balls and missed layup bunnies are points.
Free throws are certainly fixable.
Kind of rediculous for people to put a cap on a player at 21 in their 2nd year after they jumped from 6ppg to 14ppg in the offseason. He wont be in his Prime for another 4-5 years
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I hope he tightens up his handle next year.
it a lot better than when he was rookie.
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Why stop? Jaylen has been better than Jimmy Butler at basketball almost every year through 21 years.
Butler was a late bloomer, but why can't Jaylen become as good of a basketball player. I think they have similar attributes.
I really don’t get the comparisons to Butler other than similar build, well Brown still has a little ways to go to be rock solid like Butler, and that Brown has defensive potential like Butler.
On offense though Butler has a much more refined game with his dribbling, mid range, and post game playing mostly below the rim using power.
Brown on the other hand plays more above the rim while already seems like a better 3 point shooter. Much more raw, but if he gets a step on his man might be more explosive.
Just to add what I was saying before I’m going to bring it back some for Jaylen Brown’s absolute max comp for myself if everything goes 100% right, Clyde Drexler. A strong, fast, athletic above the rim 2 guard who could also shoot threes. If Brown even comes close to Drexler wow. Only 21 he has the talent and work ethic to make big strides in his game the next few years. It will be interesting to see how good he gets. Even if he levels off to say prime Gerald Wallace player that’s still very good.