Mannix on WEEI (Al Horford)

[PhoSita]

If at all possible, I'd try to avoid including KO in the deal.  Kelly and Horford would be a nightmare for defenses.  So much skill and intelligence in that combo. Would be a lot of fun to watch.


I'd be surprised if a team like Denver outbids the Celts.  It makes sense for the Celts to take some risk with Horford now because they might have a legitimate chance of winning a couple playoff series if they add Horford this year.  There's no rush for Denver.  They aren't going anywhere this year.

[wdleehi]

I don't know - if you look at last year's Rondo trade, Dallas didn't give up two firsts. I would prefer one non-BKN first and the Minny 2nds. There is no guarantee we keep him at almost $30M / yr next year.

And no, I don't really think Horford is worth any more this year than Rondo was last. He is still very good, but he has declined slightly. It is not only the package we would have to put together, but whether or not we want to pay him $20M more per year than Sully.

Rondo wasn't playing as well as Horford is right now as well.




I would also do the deal as laid out.

Also, Crowder was a nice addition -- at this point easily more valuable than the 1st we got.

His play was the unexpected bonus of the trade. 

[aefgogreen]

Our non-Brooklyn picks are far from a sure thing.  I would gamble two of them, KO, and Sully.  I imagine DA can get a feel for whether re-signing him is probable. It's not a guarantee, but if DA thinks he'll re-sign, I think that gives us as good a chance as the things we are giving up.

[knuckleballer]

Sully and two non Brooklyn firsts?  That would be fantastic if we can sign him.

That's a huge if and if that's not the case I'm out.

I assume Danny will get to speak to him before the trade and get some indication of Horford's intentions.

[LooseCannon]

The Celtics would be the front-runners to sign Horford if they look like a title contender with him.  The Celtics will probably look like a legitimate contender with Horford.

Given the right price, standing pat is like taking a long two and trading for Horford is like taking a step back and launching a three.  You might be more likely to miss, but you have bigger reward when you hit.  Ainge is the sort of GM who understands that you shouldn't be too risk-averse while being smart enough to usually avoid stupid risks.

[i believe in brad]

The Celtics would be the front-runners to sign Horford if they look like a title contender with him.  The Celtics will probably look like a legitimate contender with Horford.

Given the right price, standing pat is like taking a long two and trading for Horford is like taking a step back and launching a three.  You might be more likely to miss, but you have bigger reward when you hit.  Ainge is the sort of GM who understands that you shouldn't be too risk-averse while being smart enough to usually avoid stupid risks.

This is a great way of putting it.  I also think shooting for 3 here wouldn't even require risking THAT much which is great.

[LarBrd33]

- Said the c's are absolutely interested in trading for Horford
- Denver might be our biggest competition to land Horfod
- They should trade for Horford now because everyone will have cap space in the off-season
- Trade would be something like KO or Sully, Lee , 2 1st rd picks (not brk)
- Says Horford is worth max because he is top 10 big man in league and can attract other fa's
- Not giving up Smart in Horford trade

WTH?  That's it?

That would be unreal if true.

It wouldn't be unreal.  That's more than we got for Rondo with similar risk attached.  Horford can bail this summer. 

[Donoghus]

- Said the c's are absolutely interested in trading for Horford
- Denver might be our biggest competition to land Horfod
- They should trade for Horford now because everyone will have cap space in the off-season
- Trade would be something like KO or Sully, Lee , 2 1st rd picks (not brk)
- Says Horford is worth max because he is top 10 big man in league and can attract other fa's
- Not giving up Smart in Horford trade

WTH?  That's it?

That would be unreal if true.

It wouldn't be unreal.  That's more than we got for Rondo with similar risk attached.  Horford can bail this summer.

If they can get someone the caliber Horford without giving up any of the BKN picks (which everyone knows we have), that's a pretty unreal concept in my eyes.

[LarBrd33]

- Said the c's are absolutely interested in trading for Horford
- Denver might be our biggest competition to land Horfod
- They should trade for Horford now because everyone will have cap space in the off-season
- Trade would be something like KO or Sully, Lee , 2 1st rd picks (not brk)
- Says Horford is worth max because he is top 10 big man in league and can attract other fa's
- Not giving up Smart in Horford trade

WTH?  That's it?

That would be unreal if true.

It wouldn't be unreal.  That's more than we got for Rondo with similar risk attached.  Horford can bail this summer.

If they can get someone the caliber Horford without giving up any of the BKN picks (which everyone knows we have), that's a pretty unreal concept in my eyes.

On the flip side, renting horford for 30-40 games at that price is pretty unreal.

I wouldn't give up a Brooklyn pick in this trade.  Atlanta doesn't have that kind of leverage.  They can take sully and a 1st or watch him sign with us this summer leaving them with nothing. 

[aingeforthree]

Now you guys want to exclude KO from this deal ?  Really ?  For Horford ?

Are you guys ever going to give up something to get something ?  I don't see how Atlanta gives up Horford for just:

KO or Sully, Lee , 2 1st rd picks (not brk)

To me, that's stealing even if you included both KO & Sullinger.  It's Al Horford.  A legit BIG in a league that struggles to employ good big men.  Horford is an All Star BIG. 

If I'm Atlanta I ask for at least 1 Brooklyn pick or no deal.

[Vermont Green]

I can't see trading for Horford.  I don't mind the player but there is too much risk we lose him.  Why not just sign him in the off season?  If he is going to hold out for a super max deal that only his current team can offer, then let someone else overpay.  With his injury history, he is not the guy I want to use one of our valuable max slots on.

I would say that Atlanta does not intend to offer that or thinks he won't take it or else why would they trade him.  I think no matter where he gets traded (if he gets traded) he signs where he wants to sign and the team that trades for him will not have any advantage.

[aingeforthree]

- Said the c's are absolutely interested in trading for Horford
- Denver might be our biggest competition to land Horfod
- They should trade for Horford now because everyone will have cap space in the off-season
- Trade would be something like KO or Sully, Lee , 2 1st rd picks (not brk)
- Says Horford is worth max because he is top 10 big man in league and can attract other fa's
- Not giving up Smart in Horford trade

WTH?  That's it?

That would be unreal if true.

It wouldn't be unreal.  That's more than we got for Rondo with similar risk attached.  Horford can bail this summer.

If they can get someone the caliber Horford without giving up any of the BKN picks (which everyone knows we have), that's a pretty unreal concept in my eyes.

Agreed.  Although I also thought getting a talent like IT4 for a late 1st rounder was a pretty unreal concept.

[aingeforthree]

I can't see trading for Horford.  I don't mind the player but there is too much risk we lose him.  Why not just sign him in the off season?  If he is going to hold out for a super max deal that only his current team can offer, then let someone else overpay.  With his injury history, he is not the guy I want to use one of our valuable max slots on.

I would say that Atlanta does not intend to offer that or thinks he won't take it or else why would they trade him.  I think no matter where he gets traded (if he gets traded) he signs where he wants to sign and the team that trades for him will not have any advantage.

Because your competing with other teams to just 'sign' him, and you know how well free agency treats a city like Boston.

Get him in here via trade, sell him on the organization, and give him the max.  That's the better way to actually keep him long term.

[PhoSita]

Having a guy like Kelly is important to how the Celts want to play, and he'd be excellent next to Horford.  That'd really help take the team to the next level.

Giving up Kelly when there's no guarantee Horford won't leave this summer feels like too much of a risk to me, as crazy as that might sound since we're talking about acquiring a perennial All-Star candidate.


I'd be willing to give up the 2018 BRK 1st if Atlanta sent a lesser 1st back our way (e.g. one of their own picks), if it meant not having to include Kelly in the deal.

[ssspence]

- Said the c's are absolutely interested in trading for Horford
- Denver might be our biggest competition to land Horfod
- They should trade for Horford now because everyone will have cap space in the off-season
- Trade would be something like KO or Sully, Lee , 2 1st rd picks (not brk)
- Says Horford is worth max because he is top 10 big man in league and can attract other fa's
- Not giving up Smart in Horford trade

WTH?  That's it?

This is the right deal for both sides, but only with Sully not KO. Reasons:

1) Olynyk and Horford fit well together;
2) Sully and Millsap fit well together;
3) The Cs NEED to trade a couple of picks before the draft -- Ainge won't hesitate to ship out the Dallas and Philly picks, or even our pick;
4) It's a better overall package of player / picks in the 2016 draft than virtually any other team can offer;
5) As Mannix properly points out, Ainge will be more than willing to overpay Horford to stay, considering how hard it is to get players like Horford to sign in Boston in the first place, and how it may affect Boston's ability to sign another max FA.

footnote: I do not see Ainge giving up either Olynyk or Smart in a Horford deal.