#DeflateGate (Court of Appeals Reinstates Suspension)

[mef730]

I'm guessing 8 games, but wouldn't be surprised with 4 or 6.  I think more than 8 or less than 4 are very unlikely to happen.

You really think the NFL is going to basically torpedo the Pats' season? 

That would be a pretty major punishment.  Totally undermine the Pats' chance at defending their title.  Probably prevent one of the biggest and most successful teams in the league from getting back to the playoffs.

Sure, the Pats would still have Brady for half the season, and they're a talented team.  But I think the division is strong enough that starting Jimmy G for 8 games would sink the Pats.  The Bills won 9 games last year and missed the playoffs.

+about a million

When it comes to the choice of making a statement or making a dollar, the NFL has consistently chosen the latter, even in the face of significant public pressure.  Two games, tops.

Mike

[mahonedog88]

I think there's two stories here with the possible punishment.

With Brady, I was initially thinking a large fine....but it's clear now that the league wanted to listen to public opinion first before laying down a sentence.  And if he doesn't get AT LEAST a 1 game suspension, there will be an absolute mutiny amongst the rest of the league and NFL fan bases.  Personally, I'm mentally preparing for at least 1 game gone for Brady, and with the team having a week 4 bye this season, it wouldn't surprise me one bit if he's gone for the first 3 games and then comes back after the bye.

Now as for the organization, I also expect a punishment of a big fine, maybe even a draft pick because of their unwillingness to fully cooperate with the investigation.  Not allowing another interview with McNally I think is huge, Brady not willing to give his phone I think is huge.

The more days go by, the more I get depressed about this.  It's really an unfortunate situation and much like spygate, it was something that didn't have to be done.  Regardless now of what Brady does for the rest of his career...I hate to say it, but outside of New England, it's over for him.  Regardless of what happens now, public opinion has decided: he's a cheater, his integrity is damaged, and fans and the majority of former players think much less of him now.

[Donoghus]

Like I mentioned earlier in this thread, who the heck knows with this league office? Their precedents are all over place.  Heck, look at Ray Rice's initial 2 game suspension.  This Goodell/Vincent regime has proven to show very little or no consistency in their rulings over the years.  They certainly seem to let the public whims play a part in their decision making.  Sit back & wait to gauge public reaction and the media reaction, then act accordingly. 

A fine is certain.  To me, I can't imagine anything more than a two game suspension at worst but who knows. The NFL failed to nip this in the butt back in January and allowed this thing to turn into a full blown media circus.  I really think in the grand scheme of things looking back on NFL history that this is a misdemeanor.  It just happened to get blown up because of the way it was initially handled back in January and has continued to snowball. 

Who knows with Goodell, though?   He's tried to play "tough guy" before but he's also been less than stringent in handling some incidents also. 

"More probable than not" with no smoking gun?  I can't see Brady getting suspended half a season for that. 

[D.o.s.]

I'm guessing 8 games, but wouldn't be surprised with 4 or 6.  I think more than 8 or less than 4 are very unlikely to happen.

You really think the NFL is going to basically torpedo the Pats' season? 

That would be a pretty major punishment.  Totally undermine the Pats' chance at defending their title.  Probably prevent one of the biggest and most successful teams in the league from getting back to the playoffs.

Sure, the Pats would still have Brady for half the season, and they're a talented team.  But I think the division is strong enough that starting Jimmy G for 8 games would sink the Pats.  The Bills won 9 games last year and missed the playoffs.

I think they are are going to send a strong message, especially since it looks like this type of cheating has been going on a long time (it wasn't just the Colts game).  And this is after all the team that is always skating that fine line between legal and not legal activities for 20 years.  Brady was intimately involved here and is going to take the fall for the whole organization.

Calm down there John Birch.

He'll get a slap on the wrist.

[mahonedog88]

I'm guessing 8 games, but wouldn't be surprised with 4 or 6.  I think more than 8 or less than 4 are very unlikely to happen.

You really think the NFL is going to basically torpedo the Pats' season? 

That would be a pretty major punishment.  Totally undermine the Pats' chance at defending their title.  Probably prevent one of the biggest and most successful teams in the league from getting back to the playoffs.

Sure, the Pats would still have Brady for half the season, and they're a talented team.  But I think the division is strong enough that starting Jimmy G for 8 games would sink the Pats.  The Bills won 9 games last year and missed the playoffs.

I think they are are going to send a strong message, especially since it looks like this type of cheating has been going on a long time (it wasn't just the Colts game).  And this is after all the team that is always skating that fine line between legal and not legal activities for 20 years.  Brady was intimately involved here and is going to take the fall for the whole organization.

Calm down there John Birch.

He'll get a slap on the wrist.

That's what I initially thought, but do you realize what kind of an uproar a slap on the wrist would cause?  Not only will Brady be continued to be called a cheater, but the entire football community will claim that the Patriots have Goodell in their back pocket.  With all of the negative stories that happened this past season, not giving Brady AT LEAST a one game suspension will look pretty bad on the part of the league front office.  People really need to start preparing for Brady to be gone at least one game, maybe even as many as 3.  Now if we start getting into 8+ game suspension territory, THEN I think we're getting a little overboard.  Greg Hardy got 10 games and the last thing the league wants is for people to make the argument that what Brady did is just as bad as what Greg Hardy did

[PhoSita]

Jarringly graphic video evidence of an actual crime = 2 game suspension

"More probable than not" that a guy played some role in skirting a rule that the league has historically placed very little emphasis on actually enforcing = 8 games

That would be insane.

[kozlodoev]

I'd be shocked if the NFL chooses to suspend Brady over a report which has exactly zero hard evidence that he was directly instructing anyone to alter game balls so that they're not conforming to specifications. Not to mention that the "evidence" of the magnitude to which said balls were underinflated is based on a bunch of numbers a ref produced off the top of his head.

I don't think this can stand at all.

[Donoghus]

Jarringly graphic video evidence of an actual crime = 2 game suspension

"More probable than not" that a guy played some role in skirting a rule that the league has historically placed very little emphasis on actually enforcing = 8 games

That would be insane.

Yeah, it doesn't make sense at all. 

[kozlodoev]

Jarringly graphic video evidence of an actual crime = 2 game suspension

"More probable than not" that a guy played some role in skirting a rule that the league has historically placed very little emphasis on actually enforcing = 8 games

That would be insane.

This. For all we know, the extent of Brady's involvement could have been that one night he yelled at Jastremski that he "never wants to play with a bleep-ing watermelon inflated to 16 PSI ever again".

[Celtics4ever]

NFL can do whatever it wants, I think it was unwise for him to taunt them or dare them.   I bet they call his bluff and give him a few games off.  But the league, does not need due process to hammer a guy.

[D.o.s.]

I'm guessing 8 games, but wouldn't be surprised with 4 or 6.  I think more than 8 or less than 4 are very unlikely to happen.

You really think the NFL is going to basically torpedo the Pats' season? 

That would be a pretty major punishment.  Totally undermine the Pats' chance at defending their title.  Probably prevent one of the biggest and most successful teams in the league from getting back to the playoffs.

Sure, the Pats would still have Brady for half the season, and they're a talented team.  But I think the division is strong enough that starting Jimmy G for 8 games would sink the Pats.  The Bills won 9 games last year and missed the playoffs.

I think they are are going to send a strong message, especially since it looks like this type of cheating has been going on a long time (it wasn't just the Colts game).  And this is after all the team that is always skating that fine line between legal and not legal activities for 20 years.  Brady was intimately involved here and is going to take the fall for the whole organization.

Calm down there John Birch.

He'll get a slap on the wrist.

That's what I initially thought, but do you realize what kind of an uproar a slap on the wrist would cause?  Not only will Brady be continued to be called a cheater, but the entire football community will claim that the Patriots have Goodell in their back pocket.  With all of the negative stories that happened this past season, not giving Brady AT LEAST a one game suspension will look pretty bad on the part of the league front office.  People really need to start preparing for Brady to be gone at least one game, maybe even as many as 3.  Now if we start getting into 8+ game suspension territory, THEN I think we're getting a little overboard.  Greg Hardy got 10 games and the last thing the league wants is for people to make the argument that what Brady did is just as bad as what Greg Hardy did

No. the NFL (sometimes correctly) assumes that it's fans are stupid and don't care about anything that doesn't happen on the field. They give exactly no craps about what the fans thinks about the integrity of the game, because they know that the fans won't stop watching. This is happening in May -- they'll fine him some arbitrary amount and then nudge ESPN to ramp up the 'ITS ALMOST PRESEASON' stories and no one will say anything about it again.

[kozlodoev]

NFL can do whatever it wants, I think it was unwise for him to taunt them or dare them.   I bet they call his bluff and give him a few games off.  But the league, does not need due process to hammer a guy.

He doesn't have to do anything. The NFLPA will handle a lot of that stuff -- I don't see them being too hot about a player being thrown out over a vague report that failed to conclusively establish not only how he was involved, but also what the extent of the actual transgression was.

[mef730]

Jarringly graphic video evidence of an actual crime = 2 game suspension

"More probable than not" that a guy played some role in skirting a rule that the league has historically placed very little emphasis on actually enforcing = 8 games

That would be insane.

This. For all we know, the extent of Brady's involvement could have been that one night he yelled at Jastremski that he "never wants to play with a bleep-ing watermelon inflated to 16 PSI ever again".

Yup.  And even if he did ask for the balls to be deflated, let's not forget the magnitude of the "crime."  He isn't exactly Ray Rice.  Making a "statement" would be the equivalent of someone making a big deal about a parking ticket.

Mike

[kozlodoev]

No. the NFL (sometimes correctly) assumes that it's fans are stupid and don't care about anything that doesn't happen on the field. They give exactly no craps about what the fans thinks about the integrity of the game, because they know that the fans won't stop watching. This is happening in May -- they'll fine him some arbitrary amount and then nudge ESPN to ramp up the 'ITS ALMOST PRESEASON' stories and no one will say anything about it again.

There's also the consideration that the NFL will look monumentally stupid if they (allegedly) spent $5 million on a report in order to fine a player $100,000 and force a franchise to dismiss two low-level employees.

But then again, they already made their bed when they ordered an investigation of this magnitude over something that carries a minimal fine of $25,000 as per their own rulebook.

[Celtics4ever]

He doesn't have to do anything. The NFLPA will handle a lot of that stuff

I think he should have just kept quiet or denied it.   The agent and him, almost threw down the gauntlet to the NFL, we will see how it goes.   

McNally: Tom sucks...im going make that next ball a $%&#@@ balloon

Jastremski: Talked to him last night. He actually brought you up and said you must have a lot of stress trying to get them done...

Jastremski: I told him it was. He was right though...

Jastremski: I checked some of the balls this morn... The refs %#@$ed us...a few of then were at almost 16

Warning original link with profane language.

https://www.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/2015/05/06/read-the-texts-that-suggest-tom-brady-knew-about-deflategate/RvOL44sKCsjUnG6IlSrLGJ/story.html

https://www.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/2015/05/06/mean-texts-what-patriots-employees-said-about-tom-brady/5TAehtMZo1zKRLuK51UtjI/story.html

They have their phones, do they even need Brady's with text like this stuff.

The NFL does not have a judicial system.   They have a commissioner.  Personally, I think every player does what he can to get an edge.   I think this whole thing was blown out of control.  But I absolutely think he might get suspended for a game or two.