Rather target Aaron Gordon than Myles Turner

[RodyTur10]

We heard the rumours about the Celtics having an interest in Myles Turner. But there are also reports that Orlando is shopping Aaron Gordon. Their age and contracts are quite similar. And I think Gordon will be cheaper to get.

Turner is a much better shot blocker and a better shooter, while Gordon is a much better at passing and driving. Assuming Hayward is the guy that goes out we have a hole to fill.

If the Celtics get Turner, they could play Tatum/Turner as a frontcourt, but that's weak on the boards and has questionable post defense. Playing Turner as a stretch '4' seems unlogical based on Stevens' tendencies.

Aaron Gordon is more a '4' and if he can improve his 3-point-shot a bit (better shot selection) I think he's more a natural fit to this Celtics team. It keeps Tatum at small forward, which I still believe is preferable unless we get a game-changing center (Gobert/Embiid type).

Another point is that we have gone from a ball-sharing system with Horford as post playmaker (and Irving as a superior playmaker to Walker) to a very iso-heavy offense. The Celtics have dropped from being close to the top in team assists to the bottom of the league. Putting Turner at center, who can't pass or initiate an offense would only make it worse.

I always thought the 2014 San Antonio Spurs were an inspiration for us, but if we lose a high BBIQ in Hayward, we don't resemble that team at all. 

What we saw in the playoffs was that as a team we gave up too much size. While Turner is bigger than Theis I think overall it doesn't accomplish what we intend. Put Gordon next to a center (to develop/draft/trade, Robert Williams/?/Poeltl/Allen) and we avoid the height disadvantage at most positions.

Suppose the Celtics had made the NBA Finals and Hayward wasn't able to play, compare the starting line-up to the Lakers:

Walker 6'0 vs Caldwell-Pope 6'5
Smart 6'3 vs Green 6'6
Brown 6'6 vs James 6'9
Tatum 6'8 vs Davis 6'10
Theis 6'8 vs Howard 6'10

On average that's 3 inches disadvantage per position!

[pearljammer10]

I would not.

[SteveD]

We heard the rumours about the Celtics having an interest in Myles Turner. But there are also reports that Orlando is shopping Aaron Gordon. Their age and contracts are quite similar. And I think Gordon will be cheaper to get.

Turner is a much better shot blocker and a better shooter, while Gordon is a much better at passing and driving. Assuming Hayward is the guy that goes out we have a hole to fill.

If the Celtics get Turner, they could play Tatum/Turner as a frontcourt, but that's weak on the boards and has questionable post defense. Playing Turner as a stretch '4' seems unlogical based on Stevens' tendencies.

Aaron Gordon is more a '4' and if he can improve his 3-point-shot a bit (better shot selection) I think he's more a natural fit to this Celtics team. It keeps Tatum at small forward, which I still believe is preferable unless we get a game-changing center (Gobert/Embiid type).

Another point is that we have gone from a ball-sharing system with Horford as post playmaker (and Irving as a superior playmaker to Walker) to a very iso-heavy offense. The Celtics have dropped from being close to the top in team assists to the bottom of the league. Putting Turner at center, who can't pass or initiate an offense would only make it worse.

I always thought the 2014 San Antonio Spurs were an inspiration for us, but if we lose a high BBIQ in Hayward, we don't resemble that team at all. 

What we saw in the playoffs was that as a team we gave up too much size. While Turner is bigger than Theis I think overall it doesn't accomplish what we intend. Put Gordon next to a center (to develop/draft/trade, Robert Williams/?/Poeltl/Allen) and we avoid the height disadvantage at most positions.

Suppose the Celtics had made the NBA Finals and Hayward wasn't able to play, compare the starting line-up to the Lakers:

Walker 6'0 vs Caldwell-Pope 6'5
Smart 6'3 vs Green 6'6
Brown 6'6 vs James 6'9
Tatum 6'8 vs Davis 6'10
Theis 6'8 vs Howard 6'10

On average that's 3 inches disadvantage per position!

Defensively, Myles Turner is a much better option than Aaron Gordon. Gordon can't shoot that well either.

[CFAN38]

Gordon would be an interesting addition I have concerns with his maturity, basketball IQ, and how his game projects into winning playoff games. With that said I have a lot of faith in BS and can see the appeal of Gordon playing next to Tatum and Brown. They would form a super athletic and versatile 2-4 combination. A lineup with Kemba,Smart,Brown,Tatum, and Gordon at the 5 would also be a nice way to create miss matches and Gordon could thrive as a rim running 5

[SteveD]

Gordon would be an interesting addition I have concerns with his maturity, basketball IQ, and how his game projects into winning playoff games. With that said I have a lot of faith in BS and can see the appeal of Gordon playing next to Tatum and Brown. They would form a super athletic and versatile 2-4 combination. A lineup with Kemba,Smart,Brown,Tatum, and Gordon at the 5 would also be a nice way to create miss matches and Gordon could thrive as a rim running 5

Don't forget, Aaron Gordon is only 6'8", whereas Myles Turner is 6'11".

[Jvalin]

Another point is that we have gone from a ball-sharing system with Horford as post playmaker (and Irving as a superior playmaker to Walker) to a very iso-heavy offense.

This isn't true. Here are the numbers:

2018/19 (with Horford)
ISO possessions per game: 7.8
Frequency: 7%

2019/20 (without Horford)
ISO possessions per game: 7.7
Frequency: 6.9%

If anything, we run a pick-and-roll heavy offense with Theis setting picks on the perimeter for our guards/wings. For instance, Tatum scored 25.5% of his points out of the pick n roll. Here's the scoring distribution during the 2019/20 regular season.

Pick n Roll ball handler: 21.8% (6th in the league)
Spot up: 19.4% (23th in the league)
Transition: 15.1% (13th in the league)
ISO: 6.9% (8th in the league)
Cut: 6.3%
Putbacks: 5.9% (4th in the league)
Off screen: 5.8% (7th in the league)
Miscellaneous: 5.3%
Pick n Roll roll man: 5.0%
Handoff: 4.6%
Post up: 4.0%

Pick n Roll is relatively easy to execute and is one of the most unstoppable plays in basketball (assuming you have the right players). Theis is a very good screener, but he ain't a good roll man. Fwiw, this is the #1 reason I'd love us to go after Christian Wood who's an elite roll man.

Theis scores 1.17 PPP out of the Pick n Roll (65.9th percentile).
Wood scores 1.5 PPP (95.4th percentile)!

Imagine Wood setting picks for Kemba/Tatum/Hayward and then rolling hard to the basket.

• If the defender goes under the pick, then Kemba/Tatum/Hayward shoots an open 3.
• If the defender goes over the pick, then all it takes is a pocket pass to Wood for a dunk. Kemba and Hayward can certainly make that pass. Tatum has come a long way as a passer as well. He did a terrific job creating shots out of the Pick n Roll during the playoffs.
• If they switch, then our ball handler has a mismatch against a slower footed opponent.

Easy to execute and close to unstoppable!

[SteveD]

Another point is that we have gone from a ball-sharing system with Horford as post playmaker (and Irving as a superior playmaker to Walker) to a very iso-heavy offense.

This isn't true. Here are the numbers:

2018/19 (with Horford)
ISO possessions per game: 7.8
Frequency: 7%

2019/20 (without Horford)
ISO possessions per game: 7.7
Frequency: 6.9%

If anything, we run a pick n roll heavy offense with Theis setting picks on the perimeter for our wings. For instance, Tatum scored 25.5% of his points out of the pick n roll. Here's the scoring distribution during the 2019/20 regular season.

Pick n Roll ball handler: 21.8% (6th in the league)
Spot up: 19.4% (23th in the league)
Transition: 15.1% (13th in the league)
ISO: 6.9% (8th in the league)
Cut: 6.3%
Putbacks: 5.9% (4th in the league)
Off screen: 5.8% (7th in the league)
Miscellaneous: 5.3%
Pick n Roll roll man: 5.0%
Handoff: 4.6%
Post up: 4.0%

Pick n Roll is simple to execute and is one of the most unstoppable plays in basketball (especially if you have the right players). Theis is a very good screener, but he ain't a good roll man. Fwiw, this is the #1 reason I'd love us to go after Christian Wood who's an elite roll man.

Theis scores 1.17 PPP out of the pick n roll (65.9th percentile).
Wood scores 1.5 PPP (95.4th percentile)!

Imagine Wood setting picks for Tatum/Hayward and then rolling hard to the basket. If the defender goes under the pick, Tatum/Hayward shoots an open 3. If the defenders gos over the pick, all it takes is a pocket pass to Wood for an easy dunk. Easy and unstoppable! Hayward can certainly make that pass. Tatum has come a long way as a passer as well. He did a terrific job creating shots out of the pick in roll during the playoffs.

Anyone have any idea why Christian Wood has not been able to stick with a team longer than 1 season? He seems to be an ideal target for the Celtics. Does he have issues ?

[td450]

Another point is that we have gone from a ball-sharing system with Horford as post playmaker (and Irving as a superior playmaker to Walker) to a very iso-heavy offense.

This isn't true. Here are the numbers:

2018/19 (with Horford)
ISO possessions per game: 7.8
Frequency: 7%

2019/20 (without Horford)
ISO possessions per game: 7.7
Frequency: 6.9%

If anything, we run a pick n roll heavy offense with Theis setting picks on the perimeter for our wings. For instance, Tatum scored 25.5% of his points out of the pick n roll. Here's the scoring distribution during the 2019/20 regular season.

Pick n Roll ball handler: 21.8% (6th in the league)
Spot up: 19.4% (23th in the league)
Transition: 15.1% (13th in the league)
ISO: 6.9% (8th in the league)
Cut: 6.3%
Putbacks: 5.9% (4th in the league)
Off screen: 5.8% (7th in the league)
Miscellaneous: 5.3%
Pick n Roll roll man: 5.0%
Handoff: 4.6%
Post up: 4.0%

Pick n Roll is simple to execute and is one of the most unstoppable plays in basketball (especially if you have the right players). Theis is a very good screener, but he ain't a good roll man. Fwiw, this is the #1 reason I'd love us to go after Christian Wood who's an elite roll man.

Theis scores 1.17 PPP out of the pick n roll (65.9th percentile).
Wood scores 1.5 PPP (95.4th percentile)!

Imagine Wood setting picks for Tatum/Hayward and then rolling hard to the basket. If the defender goes under the pick, Tatum/Hayward shoots an open 3. If the defenders gos over the pick, all it takes is a pocket pass to Wood for an easy dunk. Easy and unstoppable! Hayward can certainly make that pass. Tatum has come a long way as a passer as well. He did a terrific job creating shots out of the pick in roll during the playoffs.

Anyone have any idea why Christian Wood has not been able to stick with a team longer than 1 season? He seems to be an ideal target for the Celtics. Does he have issues ?

This is a pretty good take on what the deal is with Wood:

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2020/11/11/21559421/the-nbas-next-star-big-man-may-be-hiding-in-plain-sight-on-the-free-agent-market

[Jvalin]

Anyone have any idea why Christian Wood has not been able to stick with a team longer than 1 season? He seems to be an ideal target for the Celtics. Does he have issues ?

Hard to say. Fwiw, his body fat was measured at 14.7% during the 2015 combine (2nd highest number in that draft). Obviously, he wasn't fit enough at the time. That's definitely not the case anymore. He's fit and ready to play.

[Sophomore]

We heard the rumours about the Celtics having an interest in Myles Turner. But there are also reports that Orlando is shopping Aaron Gordon. Their age and contracts are quite similar. And I think Gordon will be cheaper to get.

Turner is a much better shot blocker and a better shooter, while Gordon is a much better at passing and driving. Assuming Hayward is the guy that goes out we have a hole to fill.

If the Celtics get Turner, they could play Tatum/Turner as a frontcourt, but that's weak on the boards and has questionable post defense. Playing Turner as a stretch '4' seems unlogical based on Stevens' tendencies.

Aaron Gordon is more a '4' and if he can improve his 3-point-shot a bit (better shot selection) I think he's more a natural fit to this Celtics team. It keeps Tatum at small forward, which I still believe is preferable unless we get a game-changing center (Gobert/Embiid type).

Another point is that we have gone from a ball-sharing system with Horford as post playmaker (and Irving as a superior playmaker to Walker) to a very iso-heavy offense. The Celtics have dropped from being close to the top in team assists to the bottom of the league. Putting Turner at center, who can't pass or initiate an offense would only make it worse.

I always thought the 2014 San Antonio Spurs were an inspiration for us, but if we lose a high BBIQ in Hayward, we don't resemble that team at all. 

What we saw in the playoffs was that as a team we gave up too much size. While Turner is bigger than Theis I think overall it doesn't accomplish what we intend. Put Gordon next to a center (to develop/draft/trade, Robert Williams/?/Poeltl/Allen) and we avoid the height disadvantage at most positions.

Suppose the Celtics had made the NBA Finals and Hayward wasn't able to play, compare the starting line-up to the Lakers:

Walker 6'0 vs Caldwell-Pope 6'5
Smart 6'3 vs Green 6'6
Brown 6'6 vs James 6'9
Tatum 6'8 vs Davis 6'10
Theis 6'8 vs Howard 6'10

On average that's 3 inches disadvantage per position!

Defensively, Myles Turner is a much better option than Aaron Gordon. Gordon can't shoot that well either.

Turner offers more shot-blocking, especially in space, but an engaged Aaron Gordon is an exceptionally good on-ball defender 2-4, and passable in switches 1 and 5. When he’s locked on he’s very hard to score on. Turner is mostly a drop-cover big with some hedge ability. He gets bullied by bigger centers.

I’m wary of Gordon on this team because he’s never seemed to accept he hat he’s good at and not good at, and I have a hard time seeing how they’d use him in lineups with a center.

[Csfan1984]

Why not both?

Celtics trade: Hayward, 14, 26, and 30
for
Turner and Gordon


Pacers trade: Turner, Lamb and McBuckets
for
Hayward, and 14

Magic trade: Gordon
for
Lamb, McBuckets, 26 and 30.


C's go then have Walker, Brown, Tatum, Gordon, Turner as starters with Smart, Langford, and Theis as main bench.

[SteveD]

Why not both?

Celtics trade: Hayward, 14, 26, and 30
for
Turner and Gordon


Pacers trade: Turner, Lamb and McBuckets
for
Hayward, and 14

Magic trade: Gordon
for
Lamb, McBuckets, 26 and 30.


C's go then have Walker, Brown, Tatum, Gordon, Turner as starters with Smart, Langford, and Theis as main bench.

In your scenario, if Celtics pick #26 goes to the Pacers instead of the magic, I think this is a very equitable trade.

[Jvalin]

Why not both?

Celtics trade: Hayward, 14, 26, and 30
for
Turner and Gordon


Pacers trade: Turner, Lamb and McBuckets
for
Hayward, and 14

Magic trade: Gordon
for
Lamb, McBuckets, 26 and 30.


C's go then have Walker, Brown, Tatum, Gordon, Turner as starters with Smart, Langford, and Theis as main bench.

Cause we cannot afford them going forward.

According to the latest projections (released just a few days ago), the tax line in 2021/22 will stand at $136,606,000.

For the sake of discussion, let's assume that:

• Tatum re-signs with the C's in 2021 for the 30% max.
• Next year's pick ends up at #26 (just like this year).
• We let Theis walk in 2021.
• We fill the remaining roster spots with rookie minimum contracts (never gonna happen, but it's the best case scenario regarding the tax situation).

payroll for 2021/22:

1. Kemba $36,016,200
2. Tatum $33,724,200 (=30% of the cap)
3. Brown $25,794,643
4. Turner $18,000,000
5. Gordon $16,409,091
6. Smart $13,839,285
7. Langford $3,804,360
8. R. Williams $3,661,976
9. G. Williams $2,617,800
9. Celtics 2021 pick $2,096,880
10. Edwards $1,782,621
11. rookie minimum $925,258
12. rookie minimum $925,258
13. rookie minimum $925,258
14. rookie minimum $925,258
15. rookie minimum $925,258

dead cap
Yabu $1,039,080
Jackson $92,857

total: $163,505,283

The Celtics would be $26,899,283 over the tax line!

For a non-repeater, the tax breaks down like this:

150% for amounts up to $5 million over the threshold
175% from $5-10 million.
250% from $10-15 million.
325% from $15-20 million.
375% from $20-25 million.
425% from $25-30 million.
and so on

$7,500,000 + $8,750,000 + $12,500,000 + $16,250,000 + $18,750,000 + 8,071,952.75 = $71,821,952.75 in luxury tax!

Fwiw, the biggest amount ever paid in luxury tax is $61.6 million (by the Thunder in 2018/19).

tl;dr
In this scenario, the Celtics would have to pay ~$72 million in luxury tax!

[Csfan1984]

Why not both?

Celtics trade: Hayward, 14, 26, and 30
for
Turner and Gordon


Pacers trade: Turner, Lamb and McBuckets
for
Hayward, and 14

Magic trade: Gordon
for
Lamb, McBuckets, 26 and 30.


C's go then have Walker, Brown, Tatum, Gordon, Turner as starters with Smart, Langford, and Theis as main bench.

Cause we cannot afford them going forward.

According to the latest projections (released just a few days ago), the tax line in 2021/22 will stand at $136,606,000.

For the sake of discussion, let's assume that:

• Tatum re-signs with the C's in 2021 for the 30% max.
• Next year's pick ends up at #26 (just like this year).
• We let Theis walk in 2021.
• We fill the remaining roster spots with rookie minimum contracts (never gonna happen, but it's the best case scenario regarding the tax situation).

payroll for 2021/22:

1. Kemba $36,016,200
2. Tatum $33,724,200 (=30% of the cap)
3. Brown $25,794,643
4. Turner $18,000,000
5. Gordon $16,409,091
6. Smart $13,839,285
7. Langford $3,804,360
8. R. Williams $3,661,976
9. G. Williams $2,617,800
9. Celtics 2021 pick $2,096,880
10. Edwards $1,782,621
11. rookie minimum $925,258
12. rookie minimum $925,258
13. rookie minimum $925,258
14. rookie minimum $925,258
15. rookie minimum $925,258

dead cap
Yabu $1,039,080
Jackson $92,857

total: $163,505,283

The Celtics would be $26,899,283 over the tax line!

For a non-repeater, the tax breaks down like this:

150% for amounts up to $5 million over the threshold
175% from $5-10 million.
250% from $10-15 million.
325% from $15-20 million.
375% from $20-25 million.
425% from $25-30 million.
and so on

$7,500,000 + $8,750,000 + $12,500,000 + $16,250,000 + $18,750,000 + 8,071,952.75 = $71,821,952.75 in luxury tax!

Fwiw, the biggest amount ever paid in luxury tax is $61.6 million (by the Thunder in 2018/19).

tl;dr
In this scenario, the Celtics would have to pay ~$72 million in luxury tax!

That shouldn't be a problem at all. Do it for one year then when Tatum kicks in deal someone to reduce salary.

[Jvalin]

Why not both?

Celtics trade: Hayward, 14, 26, and 30
for
Turner and Gordon


Pacers trade: Turner, Lamb and McBuckets
for
Hayward, and 14

Magic trade: Gordon
for
Lamb, McBuckets, 26 and 30.


C's go then have Walker, Brown, Tatum, Gordon, Turner as starters with Smart, Langford, and Theis as main bench.

Cause we cannot afford them going forward.

According to the latest projections (released just a few days ago), the tax line in 2021/22 will stand at $136,606,000.

For the sake of discussion, let's assume that:

• Tatum re-signs with the C's in 2021 for the 30% max.
• Next year's pick ends up at #26 (just like this year).
• We let Theis walk in 2021.
• We fill the remaining roster spots with rookie minimum contracts (never gonna happen, but it's the best case scenario regarding the tax situation).

payroll for 2021/22:

1. Kemba $36,016,200
2. Tatum $33,724,200 (=30% of the cap)
3. Brown $25,794,643
4. Turner $18,000,000
5. Gordon $16,409,091
6. Smart $13,839,285
7. Langford $3,804,360
8. R. Williams $3,661,976
9. G. Williams $2,617,800
9. Celtics 2021 pick $2,096,880
10. Edwards $1,782,621
11. rookie minimum $925,258
12. rookie minimum $925,258
13. rookie minimum $925,258
14. rookie minimum $925,258
15. rookie minimum $925,258

dead cap
Yabu $1,039,080
Jackson $92,857

total: $163,505,283

The Celtics would be $26,899,283 over the tax line!

For a non-repeater, the tax breaks down like this:

150% for amounts up to $5 million over the threshold
175% from $5-10 million.
250% from $10-15 million.
325% from $15-20 million.
375% from $20-25 million.
425% from $25-30 million.
and so on

$7,500,000 + $8,750,000 + $12,500,000 + $16,250,000 + $18,750,000 + 8,071,952.75 = $71,821,952.75 in luxury tax!

Fwiw, the biggest amount ever paid in luxury tax is $61.6 million (by the Thunder in 2018/19).

tl;dr
In this scenario, the Celtics would have to pay ~$72 million in luxury tax!

That shouldn't be a problem at all. Do it for one year then when Tatum kicks in deal someone to reduce salary.

Deal whom? I literally included 5 rookie minimum contracts which is clearly an unrealistic scenario! Forget the $72 million figure. In reality, it would be around $100 million in luxury tax!