Hypothetical Rebuilding Trade

[PosImpos]

This assumes that both the Celtics and the Hawks get bounced from the playoffs in the first or second round this year and both teams look to begin rebuilding.


Rondo + (S+T) Glen Davis for Josh Smith + Jeff Teague + 2011 first rounder.


Hawks get a point guard who can actually run an offense down there for all the weapons they have (which they desperately need), plus they can start playing Horford at his ideal position - PF.  Glen Davis can be a solid back up PF (they are shallow there) and sometimes play at center.

The Celtics get a PF for the future who can be a #3 option and top defensive player once KG retires (probably this summer or after next season due to the lockout).  They also get an okay point guard prospect in Jeff Teague (probably a backup at best) and a late-ish first round pick which can be used on a project with a lot of upside.

No, it doesn't make the Celtics better in the short term, but a trade for rebuilding shouldn't do that anyway.  The goal is to make trades that will make the team worse in the short term (better draft picks) but set them up to be better in the future.  I think this trade could do that.  Green and Smith is a solid starting point (as future pieces or for trades), but it's not good enough to win us many games unless money is spent on free agents (and it shouldn't be).

[Who]

I'd rather have Rajon Rondo than Josh Smith going forward.

[Moranis]

I don't believe either team does that trade.

[PosImpos]

I'd rather have Rajon Rondo than Josh Smith going forward.

Here's my thinking -

Rondo is more likely to keep the Celtics in the 30-40 win range for the next few years.  The Celtics will be largely dependent on attracting a marquis free agent or getting fantastically lucky in the draft in order to become a contender again.  I think the chances of either of those things happening are not great.  Instead, it's more likely we'd be a team along the lines of Philadelphia, Milwaukee, or Charlotte - perennially contending for a lower seed in the Eastern conference.

With Josh Smith as the "best player," the team is not going to be as good.  This will translate to fewer wins and higher draft picks.  However, as a complementary player to a potential high draft pick (a PG, wing, or, if we're incredibly lucky, a dominant center) or as a piece in a trade for a superstar, Josh probably has more value because he isn't a primary ball handler.  We want somebody else to be able to come in and be that alpha dog (the way that Derrick Rose did with Chicago).


The bottom line is, I don't want to build around Rajon Rondo.  I think he's limited, flawed, and inconsistent, and I don't see that changing.  I'd rather see the Celtics try to reinvent themselves as an athletic, fast-break team in the short term -- good enough to be exciting, but bad enough not to win too often.  

I'd rather have Josh Smith (and perhaps Jeff Green) to put alongside the next Celtics franchise player than try to build around Rondo the way the Nets tried to build around Jason Kidd.

[Roy H.]

I'd rather have Rajon Rondo than Josh Smith going forward.

Yeah, same here.  I think Rondo is better, and he's on a more favorable contract.  Both players can be headaches, so I'll go with the kid who has shown more to this point.

EDIT:  I understand the desire not to be a middle-of-the-road team, but 1) I'm not sure that it makes sense to take less for our assets just to achieve that results, and 2) I'm not sure that Rondo + Green is a good enough core to win 30 - 40 games.  There will be plenty of time for sucking and being in the lottery if that's our foundation.

[PosImpos]

I don't believe either team does that trade.

I think the Hawks would jump at it.  They essentially have two starting PFs, and they desperately need a PG.  Even without Josh Smith, they'd have offensive options galore to place around Rondo.  They've already forced themselves to try to compete with that ridiculous contract they gave Joe Johnson, so entering rebuild mode is not really an option for them.

[Fan from VT]

How about this one:

Rondo

for

Beno Udrih and Demarcus Cousins


Sac (or Anaheim) gets a more established marketable name, they get a defensive PG to put next to Tyreke (who they are acknowledging is a SG), and they build around a super fast running backcourt that pairs a scorer with a distributer.

Boston gets a decent PG who can help in the last year of the KG/Allen contracts, as he can set the table decently enough for Ray off of screens, then they can run most of the offense off of Pierce and KG (both very good passers and decision makers). And he can hit the open J. Cousins gives them great rebounding, toughness and size next to KG, and plays offense on the Post to allow KG to facilitate the offense from the elbow where he's more comfortable. He gets schooled and mentored by Doc/Frank/KG/Pierce/Allen and the C's system.

Post Big 3, Cousins is younger and cheaper than Rondo and probably harder to find in the sense that PG's who rely on quickness are much much more common these days due to the rule changes. Obviously Rondo is unique, but you can get a lot closer to Rondo in each draft than you can Cousins-type talent.

[PosImpos]

I'd rather have Rajon Rondo than Josh Smith going forward.

Yeah, same here.  I think Rondo is better, and he's on a more favorable contract.  Both players can be headaches, so I'll go with the kid who has shown more to this point.

EDIT:  I understand the desire not to be a middle-of-the-road team, but 1) I'm not sure that it makes sense to take less for our assets just to achieve that results, and 2) I'm not sure that Rondo + Green is a good enough core to win 30 - 40 games.  There will be plenty of time for sucking and being in the lottery if that's our foundation.

That may be true, but part of the problem that I envision is that as long as Rondo is on the team he'll need to be the primary ball handler (that's just his game, he can't do anything else).  He'll need to be the alpha dog.  Whether we like it or not, we'll pretty much be forced to build around him, unless we have the enormous fortune of finding a dominant big man in the draft or free agency.

One thing I've noticed is that teams that try to rebuild through the draft who already have a main man (e.g. Wade, Iguodala, Kevin Martin, Gilbert Arenas etc) inevitably have trouble when they draft a player who needs the ball in his hands to be most comfortable and effective, which is the case with the vast majority of high level prospects.  I think as long as Rondo is on the team Danny's inclination is going to be to try to build around him instead of trying to build around the next great talent that comes along.  I think that would be a huge mistake.

[PosImpos]

How about this one:

Rondo

for

Beno Udrih and Demarcus Cousins


Sac (or Anaheim) gets a more established marketable name, they get a defensive PG to put next to Tyreke (who they are acknowledging is a SG), and they build around a super fast running backcourt that pairs a scorer with a distributer.

Boston gets a decent PG who can help in the last year of the KG/Allen contracts, as he can set the table decently enough for Ray off of screens, then they can run most of the offense off of Pierce and KG (both very good passers and decision makers). And he can hit the open J. Cousins gives them great rebounding, toughness and size next to KG, and plays offense on the Post to allow KG to facilitate the offense from the elbow where he's more comfortable. He gets schooled and mentored by Doc/Frank/KG/Pierce/Allen and the C's system.

Post Big 3, Cousins is younger and cheaper than Rondo and probably harder to find in the sense that PG's who rely on quickness are much much more common these days due to the rule changes. Obviously Rondo is unique, but you can get a lot closer to Rondo in each draft than you can Cousins-type talent.

If the Kings are smart at all, they wouldn't touch that trade with a ten foot pole.  As much of a headcase as he has been, DeMarcus has a ridiculous amount of potential.  There's no way they should trade him for a player of Rondo's caliber.  With the right coaching and direction, DeMarcus could be a top 5 big man in the league. 

[Who]

How about this one:

Rondo

for

Beno Udrih and Demarcus Cousins

I'm not sure if I am interested in this or not. Cousins is intriguing but risky.

I will say though, to even consider a trade like this, I would have to be convinced that the Celtics have no shot at a title next season ... but Cousins is very far away from being a positive contributor. It would be a major step back (short term) from where the team is with Rondo.

[Who]

How about this one:

Rondo

for

Beno Udrih and Demarcus Cousins


Sac (or Anaheim) gets a more established marketable name, they get a defensive PG to put next to Tyreke (who they are acknowledging is a SG), and they build around a super fast running backcourt that pairs a scorer with a distributer.

Boston gets a decent PG who can help in the last year of the KG/Allen contracts, as he can set the table decently enough for Ray off of screens, then they can run most of the offense off of Pierce and KG (both very good passers and decision makers). And he can hit the open J. Cousins gives them great rebounding, toughness and size next to KG, and plays offense on the Post to allow KG to facilitate the offense from the elbow where he's more comfortable. He gets schooled and mentored by Doc/Frank/KG/Pierce/Allen and the C's system.

Post Big 3, Cousins is younger and cheaper than Rondo and probably harder to find in the sense that PG's who rely on quickness are much much more common these days due to the rule changes. Obviously Rondo is unique, but you can get a lot closer to Rondo in each draft than you can Cousins-type talent.

If the Kings are smart at all, they wouldn't touch that trade with a ten foot pole.  As much of a headcase as he has been, DeMarcus has a ridiculous amount of potential.  There's no way they should trade him for a player of Rondo's caliber.  With the right coaching and direction, DeMarcus could be a top 5 big man in the league. 

Yeah, I agree -- I don't think Sacramento goes near this.

And they shouldn't, Rondo would be a poor fit alongside Tyreke. Tyreke is a ball-dominant guard who can't shoot. Sticking him alongside another guard who can't shoot and needs to spend a considerable amount of time on the ball doesn't seem like a good idea to me.

They are better off with a core of Tyreke and Cousins.

[PosImpos]

How about this one:

Rondo

for

Beno Udrih and Demarcus Cousins

I'm not sure if I am interested in this or not. Cousins is intriguing but risky.

I will say though, to even consider a trade like this, I would have to be convinced that the Celtics have no shot at a title next season ... but Cousins is very far away from being a positive contributor. It would be a major step back (short term) from where the team is with Rondo.

Quality guards are a dime a dozen in this league - especially, these days, quick guards.  Talented big men with two-way potential and legitimate size (6'11'' and a huge wingspan) are incredibly rare.  If the Kings were stupid enough to give us the chance to acquire one, we'd have to go for it.

[Jeff]

my short reply is "no"

my longer reply will have to wait till the summer, when we'll have plenty of time to discuss this

[Fan from VT]

How about this one:

Rondo

for

Beno Udrih and Demarcus Cousins

I'm not sure if I am interested in this or not. Cousins is intriguing but risky.

I will say though, to even consider a trade like this, I would have to be convinced that the Celtics have no shot at a title next season ... but Cousins is very far away from being a positive contributor. It would be a major step back (short term) from where the team is with Rondo.

Respectfully, I disagree at this point. I like to think of players on offense and defense having skills that fill up a Ven Diagram, and really trying to minimize overlap of skills that stand out for multiple players but can only be utilized by one player at a given time. For example, it's great to have everybody be a good shooter, as that means they are a constant threat for every play. It is nice, but not necessary, to have multiple players capable of initiating the offense. Rondo is our best handler/initiator, but part of what makes KG and Pierce so good is that from their positions they are far above average handlers, initiators, and passers; this skill of theirs is negated by Rondo handling so much of the load. In terms of your imaginary "ven diagram," "handling/passing/initiating" skills are all possessed by multiple players on the court, but only used by one at a time. So I think replacing Rondo with Udrih (average handle/initiator, vast improvement in shooting over rondo) would allow Pierce/KG to use their handle/pass/initiate skills in a way that Rondo does not allow (due to his defender doubling off when he doesn't have the ball and simply by possessing the ball and taking it out of Pierce/KG's hands) while also simply adding Cousins, who is already an elite-level rebounder (which we need), an above-average finisher, and very close to being elite post scoring, especially if KG/Pierce/Udrih/Allen meant that opposing teams couldn't pack the paint against him.

[Fan from VT]

However, it's just a Pipe Dream because I would not do this deal if I were Sacramento/Anaheim.