Why we need to overpay this summer

[LarBrd33]

The salary cap for 2015-16 is 66.5 mil.

That is supposed to make a huge jump to 89 mil in 2016-17

That is supposed to make a huge jump to 108 mil in 2017-18

This is unprecedented and I believe you need to throw out conventional wisdom.   Generally, it's a bad idea to overpay for mild talent upgrades (Detroit signing Charlie V and Ben Gordon is often cited), but there's some big picture stuff at play this year.

Here's a ROUGH look at who has cap space this summer (I grabbed these quick-glance off basketball-reference since I couldn't find a conclusive list anywhere)  At quick glance it looks like there are 12 teams this summer with the ability to sign close to a max contract:  Philly = 37 mil,  Spurs = 33 mil, Knicks = 32 mil,  Orlando = 30 mil,  Blazers = 27 mil,  Celtics = 24 mil,  Hawks = 23 mil, Suns = 23 mil, Dallas = 22 mil, Pistons = 21 mil, Bucks = 18 mil, Raptors = 18  mil, Lakers = 18 mil.

Granted, I'm not analyzing these team-by-team.  A couple of those teams (like the Blazers, for instance) only have cap space if their star players bail.  So their hypothetical cap space is kinda a moot point.   But it gives you a rough idea of who Boston is competing with.  There's a handful of teams that are real players this Summer.  I'd welcome someone to make a more conclusive list of who our competition is this Summer. 

Talent attracts other talent.  Danny is going to go all-in at the first chance to trade for an impact star, because doomsday is coming.   We need to get talent here and we need to get it immediately.  Despite the fact we overachieved this year, we lack talent on this roster and we could be right back in the lotto again next year.  Generally, stars want to join a team that has a chance to contend.  There might not be a single player on this roster that would start on contender.   That's a problem when it comes to luring that first free agent. 

I say doomsday is coming, because think about how the rising cap is going to impact the league.   Yes, Boston will have boatloads of cap space, but so will almost every team in the league.   Here's a graphic that illustrates that:



So instead of competing with a handful of teams on the free agent market, we'll be competing with the entire league.   That's why free agents might opt to sign 1 year days this year and why teams like Boston should be desperate to lock up any talent they can even if it means overpaying.   Come 2016-17, free agents will be able to get paid by any team in the league... so it's going to come down to destination and likeliness to compete.  Why would a star free agent join the likes of Jae Crowder and Tyler Zeller on a sub .500 team in Boston when they can get paid the same amount of money to join with Chris Paul and Blake Griffin on a 50+ win team in Los Angeles?   

Boston has a lot of things working in it's favor.  An awesome fanbase locally and nationally, a great history, fantastic management and a superb young coach for the time being (assuming he doesn't return to College in the next two years like Jalen Rose and Simmons predict).   But we absolutely need to get talent on this team THIS summer if we have any chance of competing with the cap boom.   

My fear is that the 40 mil cap jump is going to result in super teams.   A team like the Lakers could utilize this summer to max out cap space adding Rondo and Kevin Love... then be in great position to add a third star in 2016... and be in even better position to add a fourth star in 2017.    The Knicks could position themselves the same way.    The rich could get richer.  For instance, you could see the Cavs load up with another couple all-stars to pair with LeBron and Kyrie.     I've been following this league long enough to see how loaded teams always have the advantage with post-buyout mid-season signings and MLE vet acquisitions.  It's going to be the same thing, but instead of adding a veteran on a cheap contract they'll be able to lure additional all-stars. 

Which brings me back to my original point.  Boston will need to add talent this summer at all costs.   If that means giving Greg Monroe max money or throwing stupid cash at Wes Matthews and DeAndre Jordan, it's in our best interest to do it.   WHile it would max out our cap space this summer, we'd be looking at an additional 20 mil in 2016 and an additional 20 mil in 2017.   Then at least you're trying to lure talent with the likes of established talent like Wes Matthews and DeAndre Jordan on board as opposed to Jonas Jerebko and Gigi Datome. 

I'm not going to lose sleep over Boston offering max deals to Middleton or Tobias Harris.   Here's an example of how it could pan out for another team.  I read recently that Philly is preparing to offer a max deal to 22 year old Harris and they'll be smart to do so.  Figure that Philly will end up with someone like Mudiay in this draft.  They already have Embiid and Noel as their bigs.  Imagine they added Harris at SF and have Mudiay, Wroten, Harris, Noel and Embiid next season.  If that team makes a little noise, they head into Summer of 2017 with boatloads of cash to offer to stars.  THe Harris signing wouldn't set them back at all.   Fwiw, I hear Milwaulkee and Orlando are both prepared to match any offer for Middleton/Harris so it probably doesn't matter.   

Gear up for a crazy few years.  If DeMarcus Cousins becomes available, be prepared to trade half the team (Marcus Smart included) and craploads of draft picks.   Offer max deals to every star on the free agent market.  And when all of that fails, be prepared to overpay for a guy like Monta Ellis or Roy Hibbert if either opts out.   Gotta have talent to get talent.   We absolutely can't afford to play it safe this summer.  We need to swing for the fences and gamble.  Put ourselves in position to be one of the superteams.  108 mil means you could field a team with 5 guys getting paid 20+ million.  You shouldn't bellyache if Boston offers Greg Monroe a max deal.

[D.o.s.]

Started skimming after the third paragraph (with Charlie V and Ben Gordon) but yes overpaying this year, in theory, makes much more sense because of the cap increase. It's part of the reason why other posters say that Bradley's current deal will look like a bargain regardless of how well/poorly he plays.


However: if every team has cap space then the incentive to blow a large portion of it on a subpar player this summer, subsequently making us one of the only teams without comparative cap space after the jump, would seem to be muted somewhat. Do we really want to blow a chance at Kevin Durant (in the financial sense, I don't think there's a real shot at getting him) because we signed Monroe to a max this summer?

[loco_91]

This is really spot on. There's three forces at work: first, all contracts get cheaper relative to the cap. Second, many teams will have cap space, and they'll bid up the cost of middle-tier free agents. Third, top-tier free agents can go to teams that already have a full complement of now-cheap talent.

The time to sign FA's is now, and also in '18 and '19 when lots of teams who unwisely burned all their cap space in '16 and '17 are out of the bidding.

[BleedGreen1989]

I tend to subscribe to this theory.

Besides the obvious guys like Gasol, Love, and Lamarcus, I'd be happy throwing a max at Monroe, Harris, Middleton, Jordan, ect.

People need to think of salaries differently the next year or so.

[Lucky17]

Forgotten amid all of this: cap space can be used in trades.

No need to spend cap space on a mediocre FA just to spend it when there may be better targets on the trade market.

[Yoki_IsTheName]

The question really is not if we need to overpay or not, obviously we have to or we're going to lose out on talent. The question is who do we overpay?

I get that the cap increases in the next coming years, but you'd still want to get top bang for your dollar, even if it means overpaying.

[Forza Juventus]

When is the lockout going to happen?

[BleedGreen1989]

Forgotten amid all of this: cap space can be used in trades.

No need to spend cap space on a mediocre FA just to spend it when there may be better targets on the trade market.

The thing is though, the league is in such good position salary wise, it's hard to find a guy who's team wants to move him, but also you want on your team.

Good point though. Creates a whole avenue of paths for Danny.

[BudweiserCeltic]

Started skimming after the third paragraph (with Charlie V and Ben Gordon) but yes overpaying this year, in theory, makes much more sense because of the cap increase. It's part of the reason why other posters say that Bradley's current deal will look like a bargain regardless of how well/poorly he plays.


However: if every team has cap space then the incentive to blow a large portion of it on a subpar player this summer, subsequently making us one of the only teams without comparative cap space after the jump, would seem to be muted somewhat. Do we really want to blow a chance at Kevin Durant (in the financial sense, I don't think there's a real shot at getting him) because we signed Monroe to a max this summer?

That's the thing. The jump in salary cap pretty much guarantees that when when Durant becomes a free-agent in 2017, even if we blow our load salary wise THIS summer, we'll have enough to offer a max deal to Durant.

Of course, the caveat after that is... how money is spent after this Summer and the Summer Durant becomes a free-agent.

[jambr380]

With draft choices being cost controlled I imagine they should become even more valuable with the increased salary cap. I'm glad we have a lot of them and hope that the general consensus among gms is that quantity is more important than quality with picks.

Overall, very good post (as usually) and I agree. Hopefully we can land a big fish this summer. I know you have been an advocate of salary dumping AB so that we can sign an additional asset, but you probably agree that he will be totally worth keeping after next year.

[LooseCannon]

That's the thing. The jump in salary cap pretty much guarantees that when when Durant becomes a free-agent in 2017, even if we blow our load salary wise THIS summer, we'll have enough to offer a max deal to Durant.

He becomes a free agent in 2016.

[Who]

This is the main reason why I think very few teams will be interested in blowing up their roster over the next year or so. There is so much cap flexibility on the horizon for everyone that teams can be optimistic about adding to their team and pushing forward.

There is very little (long term) negativity around the league right now (compared to previous years). Well, except for Denver.

Which in turn means a weaker trade market (in terms of availability of star talent) for Ainge.

Probably putting even more pressure on draft picks + free agency as avenues to build roster.

[LooseCannon]

I think there might be a few teams that will think that their pending free agents aren't worth the big contracts they will receive on the open market, so will look to move those players before they lose them for nothing because they are not interested in trying to match.  If you think that free agents won't come to Boston but that players who go there often learn to love it, arguably it makes sense to use trade assets to acquire some of those players who you think will actually be worth it and to be willing to overpay for players who you might lose in free agency.

[greece66]

@LarBrd33
Good analysis TP. The graph in particular is very helpful.
Having said this, could I say that you are  making it appear a bit worse than it actually is?
Yes, we will almost certainly "overpay" a couple of players this summer, but with the salary cap rise this is only a minor concern. Add to the picture that we are well positioned to acquire talent through trades and the draft(ie FA is not our only option).
Thirdly and most importantly your own graph.
We are eighth in salary cap space projections in what is expected to be one of the greatest Free Agencies ever. We can very well "overpay" two second tier players this summer and still have money for another high contract in the summer of 2016. If anything this is something to be happy with
 (If you think otherwise, just consider how a Utah Jazz fan should feel by your own logic: these poor basterds are stuck in the Western Conference, will probably not even enter the playoffs for years to come and have no cap space ).

[LarBrd33]

@LarBrd33
Good analysis TP. The graph in particular is very helpful.
Having said this, could I say that you are  making it appear a bit worse than it actually is?
Yes, we will almost certainly "overpay" a couple of players this summer, but with the salary cap rise this is only a minor concern. Add to the picture that we are well positioned to acquire talent through trades and the draft(ie FA is not our only option).
Thirdly and most importantly your own graph.
We are eighth in salary cap space projections in what is expected to be one of the greatest Free Agencies ever. We can very well "overpay" two second tier players this summer and still have money for another high contract in the summer of 2016. If anything this is something to be happy with
 (If you think otherwise, just consider how a Utah Jazz fan should feel by your own logic: these poor basterds are stuck in the Western Conference, will probably not even enter the playoffs for years to come and have no cap space ).

I got that graph from another site.   It thought the fact we are 8th in projected cap space that season is less important than the fact that the team with the 30th most cap space still has enough to offer a max contract.  Meaning, based on that graph (which doesn't account for guys re-signing), a star free agent can basically choose any team in the league.   So we best make our surrounding roster as attractive as possible.   

I think it's unlikely, but if we head into next season without a significant addition, I'll be a little concerned.  Even if we throw money at Aaron Afflalo and Omer Asik, we gotta do something to get some talent on this team immediately.

That said, I guess the flip side of the argument is that Boston could just sit on their cap space for a couple more seasons and wait until we have 108 million in cap space to offer 5 guys in a package deal.   "Come to Boston and bring 4 of your superstar friends".