Author Topic: Celtics Closer: Pierce or Terry?  (Read 5311 times)

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Re: Celtics Closer: Pierce or Terry?
« Reply #15 on: October 06, 2012, 06:10:25 PM »

Offline gar

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We actually saw KG hitting some big last minute shots. I think Doc will start spreading it around. Also not so sure Rondo will be on the floor at the end of games. Will be interesting if he can keep his shooting numbers up this year!

Re: Celtics Closer: Pierce or Terry?
« Reply #16 on: October 06, 2012, 07:08:18 PM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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Statistically, our best best clutch scorers (based on last season's stats) are:

1. Pierce
2. Terry
3. Garnett
4. Lee
5. Bass
6. Rondo

I see out closing options going more or less in that order.  First plan will be to set something up for Pierce. If that fails backup plan will be to get it to Terry, and if that fails the third option will be to get the ball to KG.

I think Terry's clutch role will be similar to what he had in Dallas because he is really our second scoring options  behind Pierce come crunch time, and he was the second scoring option behind Dirk in Dallas.

I also think that with those two guys it depends on the type of shot we are looking for.   If we need a three to tie/win the game then I think we try to create a play for Terry as our first option.  If we only need one or two points then we will most likely look to Pierce as a first option, and then either Terry or KG as a second option.

Once you go past KG I think the options will change depending on what is needed.  As above, if we need a three to tie/win then I think Lee becomes the next option after Terry and Pierce.  If we only need an efficient two then I think Rondo, Green and Sullinger becomes the guys we look to.

I'm not sure if Bass will stil be an option with all these guys out there, becuase his specialty is the midrange shot...which happens to be the most inefficient shot in basketball.

Having too many players that can score in the clutch?  Great problem to have :)

Re: Celtics Closer: Pierce or Terry?
« Reply #17 on: October 06, 2012, 11:58:18 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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I certainly understand the hype and excitement about the Jet being a Celtic, as I'm excited as anyone about it myself, but I think it gets a bit beyond the realistic at times, especially when he has yet to solidify himself a place on this team, or a clearly defined role and chemistry with the rest of the members. Let's wait at least until mid-season befopre giving him chances at a clutch scoring spot that Pierce took years to appreciate and earn.

I'm not sure it goes "beyond the realistic." Since 2007-2008, the first year that 82Games.com started tracking these numbers, Terry has ranked 16th, 12th, 25th, 14th, and 13th in the league in "close and late" scoring output. He is an elite end-of-game scorer.

Take a look at this list:

http://www.82games.com/1112/CSORT11.HTM

His scoring average is roughly 35 per 48 minutes in those situations - very similar to Pierce.  Not too different from other elite end-of-game guys like Anthony, Durant etc. He's "taken years" to establish this as much as Pierce has.

What is even more exceptional is Terry's efficiency in these situations. Last year he shot 45/39/93 in the "clutch," and the year before 51/44/94.

Now having said that, I think Pierce is still the primary option. But what I think we will see is a lot more flexibility in the sets.

Yeah, the key thing to look at in that table you linked to is stroll your eyes up a few rows above Terry to Pierce.  Then slide to the right and notice the 6.5 assists per 48 that he deals out.   Terry only dealt out 2 per 48.  Also, note that of Terry's points in clutch, a HUGE percentage of them are on 3PT shots, which he made at a nice 39.1% clip.  Very good for a 3PT shot.   But when you only need two points, that's not a good option.  You would like a higher percentage shot if you only need 2.  Pierce is so much more versatile because he can get you one or two points in a variety of ways.

Notice in those rankings that Pierce scored more total points per 48 than Terry, yet took only 19.6 shots per 48, while Terry took 25.   Pierce took fewer shots, but made them at a higher percentage.  AND he also scored points by drawing fouls - taking 16.7 FTA per 48, compared to just 7.8 FTA for Terry.

Look at the top 15 scorers in that list.  The only guy other than Pierce posting that volume of points scored, while taking less than 20 shots is Stuckey (15th).  Everyone else is a big volume shooter.

Pierce is parsimonious - he may have the ball in what a lot of fans think is an 'iso' - but he only takes his shot if its a good one.  He's one of only 3 guys in that top 15 to shoot over 50% last year during clutch time.    He also dished out a lot of assists in those situations, creating an additional ~14.5 points on top of his own shooting.

The net net of all this is that Pierce continued to be an amazing, elite point-creator during clutch time last year.   Until that is no longer true, I want the ball to go through his hands in  clutch time.
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Re: Celtics Closer: Pierce or Terry?
« Reply #18 on: October 07, 2012, 09:04:21 AM »

Offline Boris Badenov

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I certainly understand the hype and excitement about the Jet being a Celtic, as I'm excited as anyone about it myself, but I think it gets a bit beyond the realistic at times, especially when he has yet to solidify himself a place on this team, or a clearly defined role and chemistry with the rest of the members. Let's wait at least until mid-season befopre giving him chances at a clutch scoring spot that Pierce took years to appreciate and earn.

I'm not sure it goes "beyond the realistic." Since 2007-2008, the first year that 82Games.com started tracking these numbers, Terry has ranked 16th, 12th, 25th, 14th, and 13th in the league in "close and late" scoring output. He is an elite end-of-game scorer.

Take a look at this list:

http://www.82games.com/1112/CSORT11.HTM

His scoring average is roughly 35 per 48 minutes in those situations - very similar to Pierce.  Not too different from other elite end-of-game guys like Anthony, Durant etc. He's "taken years" to establish this as much as Pierce has.

What is even more exceptional is Terry's efficiency in these situations. Last year he shot 45/39/93 in the "clutch," and the year before 51/44/94.

Now having said that, I think Pierce is still the primary option. But what I think we will see is a lot more flexibility in the sets.

Yeah, the key thing to look at in that table you linked to is stroll your eyes up a few rows above Terry to Pierce.  Then slide to the right and notice the 6.5 assists per 48 that he deals out.   Terry only dealt out 2 per 48.  Also, note that of Terry's points in clutch, a HUGE percentage of them are on 3PT shots, which he made at a nice 39.1% clip.  Very good for a 3PT shot.   But when you only need two points, that's not a good option.  You would like a higher percentage shot if you only need 2.  Pierce is so much more versatile because he can get you one or two points in a variety of ways.

Notice in those rankings that Pierce scored more total points per 48 than Terry, yet took only 19.6 shots per 48, while Terry took 25.   Pierce took fewer shots, but made them at a higher percentage.  AND he also scored points by drawing fouls - taking 16.7 FTA per 48, compared to just 7.8 FTA for Terry.

Look at the top 15 scorers in that list.  The only guy other than Pierce posting that volume of points scored, while taking less than 20 shots is Stuckey (15th).  Everyone else is a big volume shooter.

Pierce is parsimonious - he may have the ball in what a lot of fans think is an 'iso' - but he only takes his shot if its a good one.  He's one of only 3 guys in that top 15 to shoot over 50% last year during clutch time.    He also dished out a lot of assists in those situations, creating an additional ~14.5 points on top of his own shooting.

The net net of all this is that Pierce continued to be an amazing, elite point-creator during clutch time last year.   Until that is no longer true, I want the ball to go through his hands in  clutch time.

Agreed, although matchups are important. Against the Evil Empire, Pierce has a much tougher matchup on D, particularly in isolation.

Terry would have Chalmers or Mr. Creaky Ankles on him, unless they put Wade on Terry and one of the other guys on Rondo, which is its own kind of mismatch.