Author Topic: If Boston didn't take Brown where do you think he would have gone?  (Read 29303 times)

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Re: If Boston didn't take Brown where do you think he would have gone?
« Reply #60 on: September 04, 2016, 11:23:39 PM »

Offline FreddieJ

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I think the earliest Brown would have been selected is when Denver picked.  More likely at whatever pick # Sacramento was at.

He has many flaws in his game, most of which can be corrected, but it's not clear at all from having watched all of the C's Summer League games that he will learn not to barrel into the lane where a crowd of defenders are waiting.  He was bailed out on multiple occasions by the refs.  He's been doing the same thing since HS, then at Cal the 1 year he attended and he's still doing it.  It can't be excused, or rather rationalized, that it was simply that he didn't get good coaching or no coaching at all to stop doing that. 

The jury is still out, AFAIC, whether he will make the leap to be even an adequate starter until he learns he won't be able to get away with that kid of play at the NBA level...unless he changes his name to Lebron James.

Why does he fit Sacramento who has multiple small forwards and is trying to space the floor for Cousins? Because he went to Cal?

You mean Sacramento would have traded him instead of Chriss? Might be likely

Re: If Boston didn't take Brown where do you think he would have gone?
« Reply #61 on: September 05, 2016, 08:20:51 AM »

Online Moranis

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It still does irk me that we didn't try and get Chriss with the 8 pick from Sacramento, though. We certainly had the assets to get him for what Phoenix got him for, and I'd much rather have Chriss than Yabu and Zizic.

We would've legitimately been set at the forward position from here on out. Hell, if we can luck out and get someone like Giles next summer, we would've had an entire starting five that would fit really well together and start a Boston dynasty for the next decade - Rozier, Smart, Brown, Chriss, and Giles?! Holy hell that would've been one hell of a young, dominant core.

I'm sure that Danny DID try to get Chriss, but it seems like he didn't have the ammo. 

The Kings wanted Papagiannis, and it's doubtful that he would have been on the board long enough for them to take him at #16.  Add in the fact that Bogdanovic and the #28 were more valuable than the #23 pick, and it's easy to see why the Kings took that deal.  Without offering a future pick (or having a deal in place to get a pick where Pappagiannis would be available), there's no way Danny could have beaten that offer

The difference between #16 and #13 is just way bigger than the difference between #28 and #23, never mind if you throw in Bogdanovic
I don't think Phoenix takes Papagiannis at 13, I doubt Chicago would have taken him at 14, which just leaves Denver at 15.  Given they took a foreign center there, they certainly could have taken Papagiannis, so that would have been the risk for the Kings. 
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Re: If Boston didn't take Brown where do you think he would have gone?
« Reply #62 on: September 05, 2016, 03:20:58 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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This is where Lord Ford's Word-of-God Draft Tiers come into play.  The players in the 3-8 range were pretty consistently portrayed as interchangeable prospects who were unlikely to become stars.  Had Marquese Chriss gone 3rd and Brown went 8th, I don't think anyone would have been any more surprised than they were to see Brown go 3rd and Chriss go 8th. 

That's why it was funny to me that the same media personalities that hammered home the point that 3-8 were interchangeable were the same media personalities that were saying Philly couldn't get a top 5 pick for Okafor but could presumably get a pick 6-8 for him.  If 8 was the same quality level as 3, what difference did it make?   Anyways...
it's funny cause nobody said that. At a minimum it was top 6, some say they couldn't even get too 8. Presumably they didn't ask for lower
Well that's obviously not true.  I think at this point you just make up things for the sake of disagreeing with me.   It's becoming a bit transparent. 

Here was draftexpress' final mock draft:



Some thought Boston might even take Chriss 3rd.   There was really no distinguishable difference between the prospects in the 3-8 range.  It was just going to come down to personal preference.   Nobody stood out as a consensus pick in that range.  Brown was expected to go 8th in a lot of mocks, but that wasn't really suggesting he was lesser than the guys going 3-7... it was just a crap-shoot.  Whether it was Dunn, Chriss, Hield, Murray, Bender or Brown, everyone acknowledged it was a gamble.  None of them were widely expected to become stars, but a few of them (like Brown and Chriss) had conceivably high ceilings if they figured everything out and reached their potential.

Re: If Boston didn't take Brown where do you think he would have gone?
« Reply #63 on: September 05, 2016, 03:26:23 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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You do know that the DraftExpress mock is a guess based on incomplete information, whereas the actual draft is the more accurate reflection of how teams valued the players involved ... right?
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
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Re: If Boston didn't take Brown where do you think he would have gone?
« Reply #64 on: September 05, 2016, 03:28:34 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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If the Celts had taken Dunn, I imagine Phoenix, Minnesota, or Denver would've taken Brown.


As for the Chriss thing, I'm not sure when he'd have ever gotten playing time on the Celts. If Mickey is having trouble breaking into the rotation, I can only imagine that Chriss would've been D League bound for most of his rookie contract. 

Plus, it was obvious that Ainge was really keen on not adding more than one guaranteed rookie deal this year. The other guys selected in the first round had to be stashes. That's why he reached for Yabu.
Maybe because Chriss is better than Mickey.

More talented, sure.  Prepared to play quality NBA minutes?  To quote Bob, "I doubt it."
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
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Re: If Boston didn't take Brown where do you think he would have gone?
« Reply #65 on: September 05, 2016, 03:32:15 PM »

Offline A Future of Stevens

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You do know that the DraftExpress mock is a guess based on incomplete information, whereas the actual draft is the more accurate reflection of how teams valued the players involved ... right?

Wait..............what? I thought draftexpress carried the same weight as Red himself. I mean they have access to the highlight reels and the public information like the rest of us. It isn't like actual teams bring these players in to see what they can do both on the court and off. I thought Danny took Brown at 3 for pure shock value, and to maybe do the next couple teams a solid. I am also pretty sure that Ford has weighed in on this, and you know he has a GREAT track record of placing players into tiers, especially if you look back on his past evaluations (lol.)

TP for sanity Pho
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Re: If Boston didn't take Brown where do you think he would have gone?
« Reply #66 on: September 05, 2016, 03:36:53 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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This is where Lord Ford's Word-of-God Draft Tiers come into play.  The players in the 3-8 range were pretty consistently portrayed as interchangeable prospects who were unlikely to become stars.  Had Marquese Chriss gone 3rd and Brown went 8th, I don't think anyone would have been any more surprised than they were to see Brown go 3rd and Chriss go 8th. 

That's why it was funny to me that the same media personalities that hammered home the point that 3-8 were interchangeable were the same media personalities that were saying Philly couldn't get a top 5 pick for Okafor but could presumably get a pick 6-8 for him.  If 8 was the same quality level as 3, what difference did it make?   Anyways...
it's funny cause nobody said that. At a minimum it was top 6, some say they couldn't even get too 8. Presumably they didn't ask for lower
Well that's obviously not true.  I think at this point you just make up things for the sake of disagreeing with me.   It's becoming a bit transparent. 

Here was draftexpress' final mock draft:



Some thought Boston might even take Chriss 3rd.   There was really no distinguishable difference between the prospects in the 3-8 range.  It was just going to come down to personal preference.   Nobody stood out as a consensus pick in that range.  Brown was expected to go 8th in a lot of mocks, but that wasn't really suggesting he was lesser than the guys going 3-7... it was just a crap-shoot.  Whether it was Dunn, Chriss, Hield, Murray, Bender or Brown, everyone acknowledged it was a gamble.  None of them were widely expected to become stars, but a few of them (like Brown and Chriss) had conceivably high ceilings if they figured everything out and reached their potential.

As far as the Okafor/Philly thing... I just thought it was funny that the reports suggested they couldn't get a Top 5 pick, but could presumably get a pick in the 6-8 range.  If the guy taken 8th is interchangable with the guy taken 3rd, what difference would it make?    I look at it like this...

Philly has a $2 bill:



They don't make them any more.  Some think it's obsolete.  A lot of people are under the misconception the $2 bill is not even legal currency, but they are wrong.  It still has value. 

Because of these misconceptions and concerns about the $2 being obsolete, as well as a belief Philly is desperate to unload their $2 bills, the kind of offers Philly is getting for it are well below $2.   The comical thing was that the media was suggesting Philly couldn't get a pick in the 3-5 range... represented here by this shiney California US Quarter:



But they suggested Philly could presumably get a pick in the 6-8 range... represented here by this shiney Washington State US Quarter:



Yeah sure, maybe the team picking #3 strongly preferred the CAL quarter to the Washington quarter... maybe that difference is meaningful to them.   But at the end of the day, Philly knows ˘25 cents is ˘25 cents and neither is worth their $2 bill.  Hence why no trade went down.

Re: If Boston didn't take Brown where do you think he would have gone?
« Reply #67 on: September 05, 2016, 03:41:32 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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You do know that the DraftExpress mock is a guess based on incomplete information, whereas the actual draft is the more accurate reflection of how teams valued the players involved ... right?

No he read blogs and there is a clear consensus that says that isn't true. Everybody knows that

Re: If Boston didn't take Brown where do you think he would have gone?
« Reply #68 on: September 05, 2016, 03:55:17 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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You do know that the DraftExpress mock is a guess based on incomplete information, whereas the actual draft is the more accurate reflection of how teams valued the players involved ... right?

No he read blogs and there is a clear consensus that says that isn't true. Everybody knows that
Pick a side and stick with it.  Did the media suggest Boston messed up by taking Brown over Dunn?  Did we hear reports that several teams wanted Dunn and selecting the 8th best prospect over him ruined Boston's ability to make a trade? 

Or... was the difference between Dunn, Brown, Chriss, Bender, Hield and Murray completely negligible... meaning that Boston reaching for Brown at #3 didn't matter, because everyone acknowledged the guys in the 3-8 range were interchangeable prospects?

Or are you suggesting that everything being reported in mock drafts, blogs, articles, podcasts, media personalities, etc was entirely wrong... and that all teams had Brown going 3rd in spite of literally every piece of information available to the ignorant public? 

Pick a reality and stick with it.  If your belief is that everyone we read was wrong and Brown was the consensus #3 pick amongst all teams, so be it.  Let's build that conspiracy and start making each other tin hats as a show of support.

If, however, you want to go off the version of reality that was available to us as fans - leading up to the draft there was no consensus which of these prospects was best. Many had Boston taking Chriss 3rd.  Many had Jaylen Brown going 8th.  In the hours leading up the draft, Kris Dunn started gaining traction as a possible consensus 3rd - he ended up going 5th.   Some felt Bender should have gone 3rd - some felt he should have gone 8th... he went 4th.   Some were arguing Buddy Hield should be taken 3rd.  Some felt Hield should go 8th.  Hield went 6th.    There was no consensus whatsoever on which of those guys was the better prospect. 

There was, however, a major consensus that every team picking outside the top 2 was reportedly trying to trade down or out of the draft, because of an acceptance that there was no consensus pick available.   Ultimately it just came down to throwing darts at a board and gambling on guys they liked slightly more.   I suspect Jaylen Brown would not have been our pick if we weren't already loaded with guards.  It's pretty clear a major reason we took Brown was because selecting him wouldn't cause too much of a roster log jam.  Selecting Dunn, would have been an issue since we already have Bradley, Thomas, Smart, Rozier, etc fighting for guard minutes.  Selecting a SF made more sense. 

A different team selecting 3rd probably doesn't take Brown.  That's an important note to make.  That's where Lord Ford's Word-of-God Draft Tiers come into play.  When you're selecting from a group of guys in the same prospect tier, you end up selecting the one that makes the most sense for your team.  All the guys expected to go 3-8 ... went 3-8 in some order.  After the higher tier guys (Simmons and Ingram) were off the board, these were the 6 interchangeable lesser prospects available to choose form.



« Last Edit: September 05, 2016, 04:04:53 PM by LarBrd33 »

Re: If Boston didn't take Brown where do you think he would have gone?
« Reply #69 on: September 05, 2016, 03:59:22 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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You do know that the DraftExpress mock is a guess based on incomplete information, whereas the actual draft is the more accurate reflection of how teams valued the players involved ... right?

No he read blogs and there is a clear consensus that says that isn't true. Everybody knows that
Pick a side and stick with it.  Did the media suggest Boston messed up by taking Brown over Dunn?  Did we hear reports that several teams wanted Dunn and selecting the 8th best prospect over him ruined Boston's ability to make a trade? 

Or... was the difference between Dunn, Brown, Chriss, Bender, Hield and Murray completely negligible... meaning that Boston reaching for Brown at #3 didn't matter, because everyone acknowledged the guys in the 3-8 range were interchangeable prospects?

Or are you suggesting that everything being reported in mock drafts, blogs, articles, podcasts, media personalities, etc was entirely wrong... and that all teams had Brown going 3rd in spite of literally every piece of information available to the ignorant public? 

Pick a reality and stick with it.  If your belief is that everyone we read was wrong and Brown was the consensus #3 pick amongst all teams, so be it.  Let's build that conspiracy and start making each other tin hats as a show of support.

If, however, you want to go off the version of reality that was available to us as fans - leading up to the draft there was no consensus which of these prospects was best. Many had Boston taking Chriss 3rd.  Many had Jaylen Brown going 8th.  In the hours leading up the draft, Kris Dunn started gaining traction as a possible consensus 3rd - he ended up going 5th.   Some felt Bender should have gone 3rd - some felt he should have gone 8th... he went 4th.   Some were arguing Buddy Hield should be taken 3rd.  Some felt Hield should go 8th.  Hield went 6th.    There was no consensus whatsoever on which of those guys was the better prospect. 

There was, however, a major consensus that every team picking outside the top 2 was reportedly trying to trade down or out of the draft, because of an acceptance that there was no consensus pick available.   Ultimately it just came down to throwing darts at a board and gambling on guys they liked slightly more.   I suspect Jaylen Brown would not have been our pick if we weren't already loaded with guards.  It's pretty clear a major reason we took Brown was because selecting him wouldn't cause too much of a roster log jam.  Selecting Dunn, would have been an issue since we already have Bradley, Thomas, Smart, Rozier, etc fighting for guard minutes.  Selecting a SF made more sense.
I lolled. I can't believe you wrote all that for me agreeing with phositA

Re: If Boston didn't take Brown where do you think he would have gone?
« Reply #70 on: September 05, 2016, 04:05:08 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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You do know that the DraftExpress mock is a guess based on incomplete information, whereas the actual draft is the more accurate reflection of how teams valued the players involved ... right?

No he read blogs and there is a clear consensus that says that isn't true. Everybody knows that
Pick a side and stick with it.  Did the media suggest Boston messed up by taking Brown over Dunn?  Did we hear reports that several teams wanted Dunn and selecting the 8th best prospect over him ruined Boston's ability to make a trade? 

Or... was the difference between Dunn, Brown, Chriss, Bender, Hield and Murray completely negligible... meaning that Boston reaching for Brown at #3 didn't matter, because everyone acknowledged the guys in the 3-8 range were interchangeable prospects?

Or are you suggesting that everything being reported in mock drafts, blogs, articles, podcasts, media personalities, etc was entirely wrong... and that all teams had Brown going 3rd in spite of literally every piece of information available to the ignorant public? 

Pick a reality and stick with it.  If your belief is that everyone we read was wrong and Brown was the consensus #3 pick amongst all teams, so be it.  Let's build that conspiracy and start making each other tin hats as a show of support.

If, however, you want to go off the version of reality that was available to us as fans - leading up to the draft there was no consensus which of these prospects was best. Many had Boston taking Chriss 3rd.  Many had Jaylen Brown going 8th.  In the hours leading up the draft, Kris Dunn started gaining traction as a possible consensus 3rd - he ended up going 5th.   Some felt Bender should have gone 3rd - some felt he should have gone 8th... he went 4th.   Some were arguing Buddy Hield should be taken 3rd.  Some felt Hield should go 8th.  Hield went 6th.    There was no consensus whatsoever on which of those guys was the better prospect. 

There was, however, a major consensus that every team picking outside the top 2 was reportedly trying to trade down or out of the draft, because of an acceptance that there was no consensus pick available.   Ultimately it just came down to throwing darts at a board and gambling on guys they liked slightly more.   I suspect Jaylen Brown would not have been our pick if we weren't already loaded with guards.  It's pretty clear a major reason we took Brown was because selecting him wouldn't cause too much of a roster log jam.  Selecting Dunn, would have been an issue since we already have Bradley, Thomas, Smart, Rozier, etc fighting for guard minutes.  Selecting a SF made more sense.
I lolled. I can't believe you wrote all that for me agreeing with phositA
You'll agree with anyone who isn't me at this point.

Anyways... just to play devil's advocate... while Draftexpress had Jaylen going 8th, it should be noted that  NBAdraft.net had Jaylen going 9th - a real shocker considering the whole 3-8 thing.  So at least according to one widely-referenced mock draft site, Jaylen wasn't even one of the players who should have gone in the 3-8 range and might have fallen all the way to 9th had we not reached for him at 3:


Re: If Boston didn't take Brown where do you think he would have gone?
« Reply #71 on: September 05, 2016, 04:08:21 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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Looks like NBA.com had Jaylen going 8th in their final mock draft as well: http://www.nba.com/2016/news/features/scott_howard_cooper/06/23/2016-nba-mock-draft-4-0/

Hmm...  maybe I'm wrong in suggesting that the consensus was that 3-8 were interchangeable.  Seems from the research I'm doing now, Jaylen was a consensus 8-9 pick. 

Re: If Boston didn't take Brown where do you think he would have gone?
« Reply #72 on: September 05, 2016, 04:11:18 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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Looks like NBA.com had Jaylen going 8th in their final mock draft as well: http://www.nba.com/2016/news/features/scott_howard_cooper/06/23/2016-nba-mock-draft-4-0/

Hmm...  maybe I'm wrong in suggesting that the consensus was that 3-8 were interchangeable.  Seems from the research I'm doing now, Jaylen was a consensus 8-9 pick.
Man this is enlightening...

CBSSports had Jaylen going 8th in their mock draft as well:  http://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/nba-mock-draft-2016-lsus-ben-simmons-to-the-sixers-at-no-1-looks-to-be-done/  ...



That's 4 for 4...

Here's how they describe it:

Quote
So, to me, this draft has three tiers.

1) The Simmons/Ingram tier.

2) The Murray/Bender/Hield/Dunn/Chriss/Brown tier.

3) The everybody-else tier.


Quick, someone arrest CBS's Gary Parrish for ripping off Chad Ford. 

Foxsports had Jaylen going 7th (and Chriss going 3rd):  http://www.foxsports.com/nba/story/2016-nba-mock-draft-philadelphia-76ers-los-angeles-lakers-brandon-ingram-ben-simmons-061516

The undefeated has Jaylen going 8th:  http://theundefeated.com/features/here-are-the-undefeateds-2016-nba-mock-draft-picks/

On basketballinsiders, two of them picked Jaylen going 8th, one of them picked Jaylen going 6th and one (Joel Brigham) had Jaylen going 3rd:  http://www.basketballinsiders.com/2016-nba-mock-draft-final-consensus/

Oof... I had to get through 10 different mocks to find a single person who predicted Jaylen going 3rd.   

A common repeated theme throughout every one of those pages, though... picks 3-8 were interchangeable and there was no true consensus #3 pick.   
« Last Edit: September 05, 2016, 04:18:09 PM by LarBrd33 »

Re: If Boston didn't take Brown where do you think he would have gone?
« Reply #73 on: September 05, 2016, 04:15:41 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Are you literally just talking to yourself at this point? Start an online journal

Re: If Boston didn't take Brown where do you think he would have gone?
« Reply #74 on: September 05, 2016, 04:17:06 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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Are you literally just talking to yourself at this point?
Have I ever done anything other than that here?

Bottom line... just to definitively answer OP's question... had Boston not taken Brown, he would have gone 9th to Toronto.
« Last Edit: September 05, 2016, 04:34:29 PM by LarBrd33 »