Who is Celtics' biggest competition for Anthony Davis this off-season?

[footey]

In descending order, I suggest the following obstacles stand in the way of Celtics win trade for Davis this summer:

1. Kyrie signs elsewhere. (no way we trade for AD in this case).
2. Celtics win the NBA championship. (unlikely, but IF we can make it to the finals, it should be competitive with the Warriors).
3.  Another team other than the Lakers makes a more attractive offer.
4. The Lakers make a more attractive offer, that NO cannot refuse.
5. AD changes his mind, and withdraws his trade demand. (Highly unlikely,but they have played better of late, and not impossible to imagine).

Items 1 and 2 are circumstances that we can't control, so put those aside, let's say Kyrie does re-sign, but we don't win the championship this season, or even make the finals.  Who is our biggest competition in a trade with the Pelicans? 

NY Knicks? Only if they they get #1 Pick, maybe if they get #2 pick, although I doubt the #2 pick has the same cache as Tatum as centerpiece.

Raptors? If they don't win it all this year, but Kawhi decides to stay, I could see them packaging Siakam in a trade that would appeal to NO. Their GM is very aggressive, win now mode. If they win it all this year, or if Kawhi walks, I don't see them getting involved in trading for Davis. Trouble for them is, the likelihood of Kawhi staying there is probably tied to them winning it all, so this would seem to diminish their chances of getting involved in Davis trade.

Lakers?  Their major leverage is the knowledge that Davis is very likely to extend there, and threaten not to extend anywhere else.  This gives them freedom to offer more assets, because the return would be higher to them than anyone else. Their biggest obstacle is the bad will that has been engendered by Davis agent in conjunction with Laker management, or so it would appear.  I don't think the difference in available players between the Celtics and Lakers is meaningful (a case could be made that Ingram has out peformed Tatum this season), and would bet the Lakers are more willing to offer all their top young players than the Celtics.  The draft pick advantage of the Celtics really boils down to the potential value of the Memphis pick, which is very difficult to gauge. 

Curious what your thoughts on this are, including what other teams do you feel have strong assets to negotiate a trade for Davis.  I don't consider Clippers a strong competitor because they lack the player assets. 

[nyceltsfan]

I think one obstacle that you did not mention at the top (although you alluded to it at the end), is if Davis flat out says he will not resign in Boston, which would reduce the offer that Danny would make (or eliminate an offer altogether).

I am not sure who our biggest competitor would be.  Could Phoenix get into the mix with Ayton, Jackson and/or Booker (and a bevy of picks)?  Is there a way Milwaukee can get involved?  Would Middleton, Brogdon, Lopez and other spare pieces get it done?  Indiana could be another possibility.

There are a lot of teams with young talent and/or picks and depending on Davis' willingness to resign somewhere, that can dictate the return that NO gets from the trade.

I am not for a Davis trade that includes both Brown and Tatum and depending on how far we go this year, I am not sure if I would be in favor of a Davis trade altogether, unless we are trading Hayward or Horford and some picks for Davis without giving up our young talent.

[boscel33]

Why do I think San Antonio is going to get involved or maybe even Atlanta?

Atlanta could offer something based around Collins and potentially two top ten picks.  They would have a nice inside/outside game with him and Young.

I don't know what San Antonio has to offer, but it seems like they're in everything. 

[footey]

I think one obstacle that you did not mention at the top (although you alluded to it at the end), is if Davis flat out says he will not resign in Boston, which would reduce the offer that Danny would make (or eliminate an offer altogether).

I am not sure who our biggest competitor would be.  Could Phoenix get into the mix with Ayton, Jackson and/or Booker (and a bevy of picks)?  Is there a way Milwaukee can get involved?  Would Middleton, Brogdon, Lopez and other spare pieces get it done?  Indiana could be another possibility.

There are a lot of teams with young talent and/or picks and depending on Davis' willingness to resign somewhere, that can dictate the return that NO gets from the trade.

I am not for a Davis trade that includes both Brown and Tatum and depending on how far we go this year, I am not sure if I would be in favor of a Davis trade altogether, unless we are trading Hayward or Horford and some picks for Davis without giving up our young talent.

I baked that in because I believe the only team that Davis would strongly indicate his willingness to extend on is the Lakers. I don't think any other team like the Knicks, Clips, Bucks, etc. is a genuine offer, but rather a smoke screen.  That is why I think the Lakers will continue to have a negotiating edge, which they will need given the animosity apparently between them and the Pels, not to mention they are in the Western Conference.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Why do I think San Antonio is going to get involved or maybe even Atlanta?

Atlanta could offer something based around Collins and potentially two top ten picks.  They would have a nice inside/outside game with him and Young.

I don't know what San Antonio has to offer, but it seems like they're in everything.

Atlanta wouldn't be able to resign Davis. Their team would be worse than the Pelicans right now. Although Atlanta does have some pull as a city, the organization and fan base are not that good.

The Spurs are an interesting possibility. They could build a package around DeRozan and young guys (White, Murray, Walker, Poetl). That would keep the Pelicans in contention for the playoffs while giving them young talent to build around.

The Bucks do not have the assets for Davis. Brogdon and Middleton would have to be included in a sign-and-trade (very difficult) and they don't have young players to build a package around.

The Suns are an interesting possibility. They've been big-game hunting for years now. A package around Ayton, Warren, Bridges/Jackson, and their 2019 first might be enough to get them negotiating. But again, Booker has done nothing to prove he can be the lead guard on a winning team. If you strip your team down to get Davis and pair him with Booker, is that team really any better than the Pelicans this year? What hope do you have of resigning him if you aren't better?

I don't think there are any darkhorse teams in this scenario. No team has enough to get Davis while keeping enough on the team to convince him to resign.

Other than the Celtics, Lakers, Clippers, and Knicks.

[footey]

Why do I think San Antonio is going to get involved or maybe even Atlanta?

Atlanta could offer something based around Collins and potentially two top ten picks.  They would have a nice inside/outside game with him and Young.

I don't know what San Antonio has to offer, but it seems like they're in everything.

What assets package could San Antonio offer that could beat Boston's?  Also Western Conf status has to hurt some.

Atlanta intriguing, from an asset POV, but why would they give up much unless they felt confident they could convince him to stay there and extend? I mean, their prospects of competing for championships is not a good sell in ATL, their fan base is poor. It seems like NO Pels of the Eastern Conference.

[celticinorlando]

Kyrie signing elsewhere is the only way AD doesn't end up in Boston.

[Moranis]

I'd say it is in order:

Knicks - lotto pick, future DAL pick, Knox, DSJ or Frankie N.
Blazers - McCollum, future picks
Wizards - Beal, future picks
Lakers - the young guys, a lot of draft picks (they move up the list if their pick this year ends up top 5)

Now there are other teams out there that might be willing to go all in for a season.  A team like the Nuggets or Jazz comes to mind, but I don't think they are all that likely to enter into the discussion so I didn't include them. 

[slamtheking]

Kyrie signing elsewhere is the only way AD doesn't end up in Boston.

agreed and I really don't see Kyrie moving on unless this team completely unravels in the playoffs and even then, I still think he resigns knowing Hayward's improving and Rozier/Morris are likely out the door.

[footey]

Kyrie signing elsewhere is the only way AD doesn't end up in Boston.

What if we win the NBA championship this season?  Do you think Danny would offer any meaningful assets in that case? I mean, what would be the point?

[Phantom255x]

To add to what a few others have said about WAS, POR, LAL and NYK being in the mix... what if PHI has an early playoff exit? Could they dangle Simmons + picks?

Otherwise, truthfully I think the answer is Anthony Davis himself.

Ainge isn't dealing valuable assets for a rental year player, period.

I think the chances we trade for him are below 30%. I also don't see him landing with the Lakers though.

[action781]

I don't think Kyrie leaving necessarily takes Boston out of the running.

If Kyrie leaves, we could still resign Rozier and trade Tatum + two draft picks for AD.  That could be the best offer on the table enticing NOP to accept.

It would be risky, as the likelihood of AD resigning here decreases without Kyrie.  But I think we're still an excellent overall team in that scenario.  Maybe Hayward thrives next year.  I'd say we'd be good enough for him to at least consider staying.  Dunno if management would take that risk or not, but I don't think its off the table.

[footey]

To add to what a few others have said about WAS, POR, LAL and NYK being in the mix... what if PHI has an early playoff exit? Could they dangle Simmons + picks?

Otherwise, truthfully I think the answer is Anthony Davis himself.

Ainge isn't dealing valuable assets for a rental year player, period.

I think the chances we trade for him are below 30%. I also don't see him landing with the Lakers though.

I forgot about Philly. Yes, an offer centered on Simmons would be very strong. Just don't think they have much in terms of picks, but may not need them with Simmons the centerpiece.

  Poetic justice too, given he is a client of Rich Paul, LOL.

[hodgy03038]

Clippers

[Silky]

Kyrie signing elsewhere is the only way AD doesn't end up in Boston.

uhhh, no.

If Davis states he will not resign in Boston no matter what,  period, then no way does Danny trade for him, or no way ownership should ever allow him to.