Author Topic: Celtic Picks - 2019 draft  (Read 106816 times)

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Re: Celtic Picks - 2019 draft
« Reply #165 on: March 11, 2019, 01:55:37 PM »

Offline Silky

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Kind of a 1+1+1+1 is better than a 3.

The problem is that throughout NBA history, 3 > 1 + 1 + 1 + 1.

In a bubble that is correct.

I guess, for me, the weighting factor is if one of those 1s has the chance to become a 2 or 3.

Then you are looking at 2+2+1+1 or a 3

Re: Celtic Picks - 2019 draft
« Reply #166 on: March 11, 2019, 02:00:51 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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Kind of a 1+1+1+1 is better than a 3.

The problem is that throughout NBA history, 3 > 1 + 1 + 1 + 1.

I'm not opposed to trading for AD...I favored the idea that brought Garnett...who while older than AD was a much more durable player, and true leader. 

What people are talking about giving up for AD is way way more than we gave up for Garnett.  I just want Danny to say no at the point it becomes too ridiculous...and only if there is truly a way of guaranteeing he resigns (or is tradable). 
I think that's the key to the whole thing -- can AD be resigned or not.  if it's a firm or likely no, what NO can get for him is a lot less than if he's open to resigning where he's traded. 

If AD isn't open to resigning here, I would hope Danny would offer very little for a 1-year rental which in all likelihood, will result in AD going elsewhere.  I'm fine with that provided it's not the Lakers but if it is, I want NO to strip them of every asset possible - young players and picks.  having said that, I highly doubt they'd trade with LA considering Ingram's health issue and Ball's likely resistance to playing there (effectively) - that and LA having low quality picks for years after the deal goes through

Re: Celtic Picks - 2019 draft
« Reply #167 on: March 11, 2019, 03:27:01 PM »

Offline Sophomore

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Not sure New Orleans will want a ton of picks in return, especially in this draft. They have their own lottery pick so I think they would ask for no more than 2 this year, especially if the miracle happens that is the Memphis pick. N.O. will like ask for both the Memphis and Sacramento picks but no more than those two this year. We would likely have to trade about 3-4 players as well to match salaries.
This likely belongs in a different thread but I was just replying to a couple of above posts.

This is the piece that’s hardest for me to see - what will/can NOP accept?

If the Mem and LAC picks convey this year (increasingly likely) it’s possible to match salaries w/out sending Smart or Brown. Tatum, Yabu, Time Lord, four picks. Possibly we’d need a few more bucks, like a 2d rounder.

My guess is the NOPs would see the value in that deal as the best they can get (Tatum, Williams, pick 9 and 14) and not insist on Smart or Brown. Another question I have, assuming that Ian right - are they able to trade for all those players? Hard to believe they have six open roster spots they want to fill with these guys. Can they just cut anybody they don’t want, maybe involve a 3d team?

(Final observation: this is all contingent on who wins the Zion sweepstakes... if a high lottery team gets lucky and can pair ZW with a decent player I can see NOP preferring that. Zion will put butts in the seats.)

I hope Danny doesn't get too crazy if competing with another team's offer that includes Zion...I'd rather trade for Zion and give up a little less than trade for AD and give up everything.  By everything I mean Tatum    plus        Brown or Smart      plus      all the picks....

EDIT:  well the above doesn't make sense as the Zion possessing team would either prefer Zion or AD, above any offer the Celtics could put together, unless that team really wanted a SF and not a big, or for some reason the Pels aren't sold on Zion (very unlikely).

So just keep the don't get too crazy Danny part....and discard rest of first paragraph above...

you are on the right idea though.

I am firmly in the camp of not wanting to give up too much for Davis, as I see alot of value in keeping more of the assets and trading for a lesser value.

Kind of a 1+1+1+1 is better than a 3.

And there are centers/pfs out there that could be had for less of a cost that what is rumored for Davis. (albeit lesser centers than Davis, but probably enough with the additional assets to push team over the top)

KAT
Carter Jr
Drummond
Nurkic

to name a couple off the top of my head.

I wouldn’t mind seeing Myles Turner in green (great defensive center, doesn’t need a lot of shots, can shoot the 3) but I can’t think of a deal that makes sense for both teams.

Re: Celtic Picks - 2019 draft
« Reply #168 on: March 12, 2019, 12:20:33 PM »

Offline rondofan1255

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Yes celticsclay was right, MEM is gonna depend on ping pong balls

On a brighter note (or is it?), LAC blew out BOS last night

Kings lost to WAS

Re: Celtic Picks - 2019 draft
« Reply #169 on: March 12, 2019, 02:11:11 PM »

Offline GreenShooter

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Yes celticsclay was right, MEM is gonna depend on ping pong balls

On a brighter note (or is it?), LAC blew out BOS last night

Kings lost to WAS
LAC aren't tanking so that's good for the pick conveying this year.
Also, Sacramento hasn't been the same since Bagley got hurt as he was just starting to bring it. Could be coincidental as they've lost a couple of close ones but a blessing none the less.

Re: Celtic Picks - 2019 draft
« Reply #170 on: March 12, 2019, 02:27:06 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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Yes celticsclay was right, MEM is gonna depend on ping pong balls

On a brighter note (or is it?), LAC blew out BOS last night

Kings lost to WAS
LAC aren't tanking so that's good for the pick conveying this year.
Also, Sacramento hasn't been the same since Bagley got hurt as he was just starting to bring it. Could be coincidental as they've lost a couple of close ones but a blessing none the less.
shame about Bagley but it does help us with the pick.  a kind bounce of the ping pong balls would help even more.  I'd be happy with jumping up to #2.

highly hypothetical question.  if the Kings pick did jump to the #2 or #3 spot (which could be just enough to push Memphis from 8 to 9 thus giving that one to us as well this year), would you (general 'you') prefer:
1.  keep it and grab another top young talent to add to this group?
2.  use it in a deal for Davis but use it as an excuse to hold on to one of the first rounders this year?
3.  use it in a deal for Davis but use it as an excuse to hold Tatum out of the trade and use that pick as the centerpiece of the deal?

Personally, I think if the C's do get the #2, it gives them a bit more leverage to use that as the trade centerpiece (no, it won't be Zion but #2 in any draft is a pretty big deal) as opposed to Tatum.   Question at that point is who would they need  to move (or be able to move since it doesn't look like Danny's using that MLE to sign a player for salary filler in that NO deal) to match salaries.  they don't really have much in the way of mid-range salaries to match AD's salary.  I think Smart's salary is needed as is any signed draft picks used in the deal (Smart, #2, #9 & #18 are a pretty good haul for NO.  possibly need to add Semi, Yabu and/or Williams for extra salary)

Re: Celtic Picks - 2019 draft
« Reply #171 on: March 12, 2019, 02:35:31 PM »

Offline smokeablount

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Yes celticsclay was right, MEM is gonna depend on ping pong balls

On a brighter note (or is it?), LAC blew out BOS last night

Kings lost to WAS
LAC aren't tanking so that's good for the pick conveying this year.
Also, Sacramento hasn't been the same since Bagley got hurt as he was just starting to bring it. Could be coincidental as they've lost a couple of close ones but a blessing none the less.
]

They were definitely, definitely due to lose a few.  They've been insanely lucky this year.  They look pretty locked in at #14 but if Minny can get hot and beat some teams they probably shouldn't, I could see the pick landing #13.
2023 Non-Active / Non-NBA75 Fantasy Draft, ChiBulls:

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Re: Celtic Picks - 2019 draft
« Reply #172 on: March 12, 2019, 02:43:17 PM »

Offline smokeablount

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Yes celticsclay was right, MEM is gonna depend on ping pong balls

On a brighter note (or is it?), LAC blew out BOS last night

Kings lost to WAS
LAC aren't tanking so that's good for the pick conveying this year.
Also, Sacramento hasn't been the same since Bagley got hurt as he was just starting to bring it. Could be coincidental as they've lost a couple of close ones but a blessing none the less.

Kings lost last night, are 4 games out of a playoff spot, and have away games vs. us and Philly next, both of which they should lose to fall to 33-35 with 14 games left.  Minny is games behind them.  LAC should do no worse than .500 their next 6 games (home vs. Bulls & Nets, away vs Knicks & Cavs) which would put them at 42-32 or better. 

Clips are really close to essentially locking down a playoff spot, as they're a hair above #8 in 6th right now with a big gap between #8 and #9 the Kings.  I expect at least the Jazz in 8th to pass LAC as well.  They won't mathematically clinch it soon, but in all likelihood the Kings won't win 10+ of their last 14 and pass LAC.  Despite the awful luck with the Sacto pick this year, we have some offsetting good luck with the Clippers pick really close to coming to fruition. 
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Re: Celtic Picks - 2019 draft
« Reply #173 on: March 13, 2019, 04:56:26 PM »

Offline rondofan1255

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Clips lost last night.

Re: Celtic Picks - 2019 draft
« Reply #174 on: March 13, 2019, 05:02:51 PM »

Offline smokeablount

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Clips lost last night.

That's probably good.  I don't think the Kings, Twolves or Lakers are going to catch them, but Utah needs to stay ahead of them and ideally SA does too, and they land 8th.  I want a nice mix of wins and losses for LAC now.

If LAC is the 8th seed and they lose in the 1st round but have the better record of the 8 seeds, that'd be pick #16?
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Re: Celtic Picks - 2019 draft
« Reply #175 on: March 13, 2019, 05:14:10 PM »

Offline GreenEnvy

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Clips lost last night.

That's probably good.  I don't think the Kings, Twolves or Lakers are going to catch them, but Utah needs to stay ahead of them and ideally SA does too, and they land 8th.  I want a nice mix of wins and losses for LAC now.

If LAC is the 8th seed and they lose in the 1st round but have the better record of the 8 seeds, that'd be pick #16?

Well we should assume that even the 8 seed out west will have a better record than the 6th seed in the east. That would become the 18th pick. In the event of a tie, I believe they use coin flips to determine order.

I’d say the highest the pick could be is 18, the lowest 20.
CELTICS 2024

Re: Celtic Picks - 2019 draft
« Reply #176 on: March 13, 2019, 05:59:00 PM »

Offline JBcat

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Yes celticsclay was right, MEM is gonna depend on ping pong balls

On a brighter note (or is it?), LAC blew out BOS last night

Kings lost to WAS
LAC aren't tanking so that's good for the pick conveying this year.
Also, Sacramento hasn't been the same since Bagley got hurt as he was just starting to bring it. Could be coincidental as they've lost a couple of close ones but a blessing none the less.
shame about Bagley but it does help us with the pick.  a kind bounce of the ping pong balls would help even more.  I'd be happy with jumping up to #2.

highly hypothetical question.  if the Kings pick did jump to the #2 or #3 spot (which could be just enough to push Memphis from 8 to 9 thus giving that one to us as well this year), would you (general 'you') prefer:
1.  keep it and grab another top young talent to add to this group?
2.  use it in a deal for Davis but use it as an excuse to hold on to one of the first rounders this year?
3.  use it in a deal for Davis but use it as an excuse to hold Tatum out of the trade and use that pick as the centerpiece of the deal?

Personally, I think if the C's do get the #2, it gives them a bit more leverage to use that as the trade centerpiece (no, it won't be Zion but #2 in any draft is a pretty big deal) as opposed to Tatum.   Question at that point is who would they need  to move (or be able to move since it doesn't look like Danny's using that MLE to sign a player for salary filler in that NO deal) to match salaries.  they don't really have much in the way of mid-range salaries to match AD's salary.  I think Smart's salary is needed as is any signed draft picks used in the deal (Smart, #2, #9 & #18 are a pretty good haul for NO.  possibly need to add Semi, Yabu and/or Williams for extra salary)

I’ll go with number 3 you listed.  Some may believe that Barrett may be a better pro than Tatum.  That may end up happening, but Tatum will be in year 3 next year verses rookie Barrett or Morant, and that could matter for how good we are next year at the very least, and maybe the next couple years. Tatum is the safer choice, and still has the upside to be maybe better than either of those 2.

Now if the Kings pick lands 2 or 3, and the Grizzlies pick doesn’t convey(I think it would then increase in value) I think that would do wonders for our chances of holding onto Tatum.

It would be great if the Kings slid back to around the 10th spot.  That would give us roughly 15%-20% lottery odds of a 2-4 pick.

Re: Celtic Picks - 2019 draft
« Reply #177 on: March 13, 2019, 06:25:30 PM »

Offline smokeablount

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Clips lost last night.

That's probably good.  I don't think the Kings, Twolves or Lakers are going to catch them, but Utah needs to stay ahead of them and ideally SA does too, and they land 8th.  I want a nice mix of wins and losses for LAC now.

If LAC is the 8th seed and they lose in the 1st round but have the better record of the 8 seeds, that'd be pick #16?

Well we should assume that even the 8 seed out west will have a better record than the 6th seed in the east. That would become the 18th pick. In the event of a tie, I believe they use coin flips to determine order.

I’d say the highest the pick could be is 18, the lowest 20.

I think it's certainly possible that NJ or Detroit finish better than LAC, tho highly unlikely.  I just hope LAC doesn't finish #7.  I highly doubt they finish ahead of Utah but SA sucks on the road this year and doesn't shoot 3's.
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Re: Celtic Picks - 2019 draft
« Reply #178 on: March 13, 2019, 09:35:29 PM »

Offline rondofan1255

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Hawks leading Memphis 124-97 with 6 mins left

Washington won against Orlando

Re: Celtic Picks - 2019 draft
« Reply #179 on: March 14, 2019, 08:42:33 AM »

Offline slamtheking

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update for this week

Standings as of 3/14/19

Memphis pick --  #7  (tied with Dallas but separated by percentage points) --  (protected top 8 ) 
                   Games Behind    Current Wins   Games Left   Last 10
Dallas                    ---                     27                    15              1-9
Memphis               ---                     28                    13              5-5
Washington         +1.5                   29                    14              5-5
New Orleans         +1.5                  30                    12              4-6

--> Thought Memphis had #6 locked up but they've been playing decently lately and Dallas went into a full nose-dive.  Memphis now within hailing distance of Washingtion an NO for the #9 spot which would mean the pick conveys this year.

Kings pick -- #14 -- (protected if top 1 - becomes Sixer pick if #1)
                       Games Behind    Current Wins     Games Left    Last 10
LA Lakers                 2.5                    31                     15                 3-7
MInnesota                 2                      32                     14                 4-6
Sacramento             ---                     33                     16                 3-7

-> Kings still fighting to make the playoffs but they're fading - now 4.5 games out so they seem pretty safe to call as a lottery team.  Lakers and Minny should have the talent to have passed the Kings long ago but they've really underachieved this year.  Not seeing any reasonable hope this pick improves prior to the draft.

Clipper Pick #18   --  (tied with Utah but separated by percentage points) (protected  top 14) 
                        Games Behind    Current Wins     Games Left    Last 10
LA Clippers              ---                     39                      13                 7-3
Utah                         ---                      38                      15                 6-4
San Antonio             +0.5                   39                      14                 7-3

-->  Clips  bunching up with SAS and Utah even more this week.  Pick looks like it'll be between 18-20 this year and should convey

Boston Pick --  #21
                   Games Behind    Current Wins     Games Left    Last 10
Boston                 ---                      41                      14                4-6
Portland               +0.5                   41                      15                7-3
Houston                +1                     42                      14                9-1
OKC                      +1                     42                       14                4-6
Indiana                 +2                     43                      14                 5-5
Philly                     +2                     43                      14                 6-4

-->C's didn't 'lose' any ground to the teams around them in terms of draft position but didn't help themselves in the playoff standings despite a solid west coast trip.   Added in Indy and Philly for this week as we watch the C's try to gain ground on them for playoff standings.   Only OKC has had as bad a stretch as the C's the past 10 games so we may be seeing the C's settle into the #21 slot for the draft.

Second Rounders:
Boston (protected 31-55)

Second rounders
Boston - #51
looking like a safe bet they aren't losing this pick this year
« Last Edit: March 14, 2019, 09:23:52 AM by slamtheking »