Is "Good Tony" a myth?

[Roy Hobbs]

There has been a ton of talk this season about how Tony Allen has looked better this season, that he's had a career makeover, etc., etc.  The question is, is their any validity to that?

Below are Tony's career averages, and his "Per 36" career stats:



Certainly, it's fair to say that in a lot of areas (FG%, rebounding, turnovers) there has been some minimal improvement.  However, statistically, Tony basically seems to have been the same player this year that he's always been, at least within normal fluctuations.  

Tony still possesses a lot of the flaws he's always had.  He was a terrible jump shooter (.214 eFG% on jump shots), and he still fouled and turned the ball over more than most players.  He still had an assist-to-turnover ratio of approximately 1:1, and the team was actually outscored while Tony was on the court this year.

Why, then, do so many Celtics fans think Tony has turned a corner?  Are the Tony fans that have been telling us that he's always been as good as he has shown this year been correct?

I think there are a number of reasons for the average fan's belief that Tony has been better this year, even as he's statistically within career norms:

1) Tony really has played better this year.  

This is probably the most obvious one, but Tony has decreased some of his worst traits.  Only 33% of his shots this year have been jumpers (as opposed to 39% last year, and 50% and 45% the two previous years).  Despite that, Tony has decreased his turnovers.

2) Tony has cut down on his most frustrating plays.  

As noted above, Tony is driving to the basket more this year.  Despite that, Tony only has nine offensive fouls this entire season, as compared to 19 last season.  That shows some real growth on his part.  

Similarly, Tony hasn't been turning the ball over  much in crunch time.  This season, Tony only has two turnovers in "clutch" situations, defined as situations in the last five minutes of a game (or overtime) where the game is within five points.  At the same time, Tony scored more in crunch situations than in the past.

3) Fans have plenty of scapegoats this season

Listen, every fan base usually has players it tends to bash, and Tony was an easy target with the Celts.  In the past, he turned the ball over way too much, he fouled a lot, he made bonehead plays, and off the court, he brought a lot of negative attention to himself.  

This season, there are other players who have played worse, or who have at least played farther beneath expectations.  First and foremost on that list, of course, is Rasheed, who almost instantly earned the fans' scorn with his lazy play and mediocre performance.  Additionally, the entire team has been a disappointment, leaving plenty of avenues for criticism.  Because of that, Tony's role as a scapegoat has been largely reduced.  Whatever the problems with the team were this season, they weren't related to Tony Allen.

4) Fans respect the way Tony has played.

Related to the above, Tony has endeared many fans with his style of play.  When this team has looked old and lethargic, Tony has looked athletic and energetic.  He has almost uniformly hustled when he's been in the game, and on nights when the team has chucked lazy shots from the perimeter, he hasn't been scared to drive the ball.

In conclusion, then, it seems that "Good Tony" is partially grounded in reality, despite what the stats might suggest.  However, a large part of the "Good Tony" phenomenon is also fueled by fan perception, both positive and negative.

[Donoghus]

There are "Good Tony" plays and "Bad Tony" plays.  Sometimes, you'll even see the contrast in back to back possessions. 

I don't think he's really turned a corner this season anymore so than people felt at the end of the '07-08 season.  I've pretty much accepted him for what he is; a roleplayer who can sometimes excel in certain situations but is still very inconsistent and prone to making bone-headed decisions.  I think we're past the "potential" stage with him and witnessing what he is and pretty much will continue to be going forward.

[Chris]

I just don't think "good Tony" and "bad Tony" can be measured in stats.  In fact, I think there is an argument that "Bad Tony" often had better stats.

It is all about focus and timing.  Bad Tony could have just as many points, just as many rebounds, just as many steals, but he had a nasty habit of losing focus at the worst possible times. 

He would shut a player down for 20 seconds, then let down his guard, just in time for them to nail the three, when Tony wanders off looking for a wreckless steal.  He would have three straight good plays, then all of a sudden, he will have three straight trips where he dribbles the ball off his foot, throws an "alley-oop" over the backboard, and swings the ball with 1 second left on the shotclock.

To me, the difference with Tony this year has been that he has been able to sustain his focus longer, and when he does lose it, it is not for the long stretches that he had in the past, where he would string together 3 or 4 terrible trips.  He may dribble the ball off his foot, but now, that's it.

[Brendan]

I thought he was pretty marginal until the last couple months, might be interesting to see it broken down by months.

[Roy Hobbs]

I thought he was pretty marginal until the last couple months, might be interesting to see it broken down by months.

His monthly stats can be found here, although not per-minute:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/allento01/splits/2010/

[BudweiserCeltic]

I think "Bad Tony" is a myth, or maybe just over-exaggerated in these forums.

The most telling part is how often he's criticized, particularly when he's suffering from an injury, and many of his detractors don't factor in how an injury can affect his play. They just look at it as another negative, a player that is injured often. Which is fine, but you can't close your eyes and not factor in how injuries have affected his game.

Last season he was quite good for us, until he re-injured himself halfway through the season. He came back, started playing well again, and then injured himself again, just to be out of sync when the playoffs came. In our championship year, he was returning from major surgery, and even though everyone before the season started knew Tony wasn't going to have a good year, when the year passed people started making it seem as that season was an excellent example of who Tony is a player, which is completely not understandable. With that said, he played a minor role during our championship run, and played that role very well. Only kink was a game where he was guarding Rip Hamilton and Hamilton proved to be a handful with how quick he was moving around and his usage of screens. During the finals he did a very good job while guarding Kobe. Other than Pierce, he showed to be the best 1 on 1 defender against him.

So in all, I don't think people here have evaluated him correctly, nor afforded him the consideration of when he's playing injured and when he has been playing healthy. Does he make dumb plays? Absolutely. But there's a huge downplaying of what his contributions have been when weighted against his turnovers.

So in all, Tony is a solid player, who has often been played out of position and in the wrong roles during his time with the Celtics, particularly in the last 3 years. It's really unfortunate for him, but he has kept there fighting and it's paying dividends now when we need him. Hopefully this continues throughout the playoffs.

[EJPLAYA]

I think the biggest change in TA this season has been his REALLY bad turnovers. The drop your head and dribble the ball as hard as you can and run right into the chest of the defender that has been standing there for 3-4 seconds. He doesn't seem to be pounding the air out of the ball this year. Other than that he is basically the same guy. His free throw shooting has been horrid though for some reason. It use to be that this was the ONLY thing I gave him props for. One of those knee injuries must have required them to take away his shooting muscle. He went from an okay shooter to Rondo the past couple years.

[indeedproceed]

Good Tony isn't a myth, he's as real as the wind at your back, the soft words of encouragement in the back of your head when you're feeling a little down. He's the last rays of sunshine after a good day, and the soft patter of rain on your window when you want to stay inside and just curl up with a good book.

Of course he's your second wind when having a major drinking session with your friends, he's the soft words of encouragement telling you to take that bagel even though you didn't order it and hope that nobody calls you on it. He's the bossy voice in the back round that tells you to ask that girl for her number even though she clearly has a boyfriend that is way bigger than you, and he's standing right next to her.

[the_Bird]

Not sure how to quantify "playing in control" and "not trying to do too much" other than what you just mentioned.  On the defensive side, not sure anyone tracks things like "pump fakes bitten on."  

The improvement in turnovers/decrease in offensive fouls/fewer jump shot measurements are good indicators; better is just watching the kid play.  He's in control, he's not playing frantically (at least, frantically in a bad way).

[Reggie's Ghost]

Such a good OP, positively should be on the front page.  TP, thank you Roy...

[Roy Hobbs]

Such a good OP, positively should be on the front page.  TP, thank you Roy...

Thanks, Reggie.  Positive feedback is always appreciated. TP.

[Jon]

I'm very happy with how TA is playing.  So I don't want to bash him.  However, to be realistic, this series really is the perfect series for him.  First, Miami is the weakest team we'll play all playoffs, so that helps.  Second, and much more importantly, D-Wade is the perfect superstar matchup for him.  Like TA, Wade is strong, athletic, but not all that tall.  Finally, while Miami plays good defense, there bench is rather weak, letting them get away with letting TA run the point. 

In the next round (knock on wood), TA is going to have a tougher time with the likes of someone like LeBron, who will stand a full 4 inches taller.  Even against someone like Vince Carter, he may struggle with his length.  Moreover, as we play better teams and the benches get stronger, we may have a tougher time getting away with TA at the point. 

Again, this isn't to say he can't be good next round.  I'm just saying that his dominating defense and efficiency at the point may not keep up. 

[Meadowlark_Scal]

I have always like TA, and had to defend him during his recovery from the knee, which most bashers won't even acknowledge happened. ( see KG- not much dunking-knee) Now that he is recovered, a lot of things won't show up on the stats, saving a ball going out of bounds, picking up a loose one, the GREAT D on Miami's best player and a league leader, slashing when the C's can't but an outside shot...sometimes just one slashing  layup, or one of his, "get out of my way, I'm dunking on you-all fools" plays fires our team up, he is ALL over the rebounds, has a hand in at least a third of them when he is on the floor....no rebounds, no championship ( I think
Pat Riley correctly said that)...so he isn't perfect, WOW, who is, turnovers, I have watched PP ISO turnover, Ray, Perk, KG...BBD.....except a lot of folks here just look the other way when THEY do it......seeing only what you want doesn't make other people NOT see it....! If he keeps this up, then there it is. Even if he didn't, look what he gave us IN THE PLAYOFFS, otherwise known as the only time it really matters...! (mostly!).

[incoherent]

I have a friend who has always loved Tony Allen, from day one.  And I didnt have much of an opinion of him... until he started dropping 20 a night when Pierce went out, it wasn't hard for me to adopt my friends philosophy.

Now over the years me and my friend have always had some great Tony Allen talks, we support him but know that the injuries and the knuckledheadness gets in the way.

I think I speak for my friend here when I say "Good Tony" is a myth, because he has always been good.

[incoherent]

I have always like TA, and had to defend him during his recovery from the knee, which most bashers won't even acknowledge happened. ( see KG- not much dunking-knee) Now that he is recovered, a lot of things won't show up on the stats, saving a ball going out of bounds, picking up a loose one, the GREAT D on Miami's best player and a league leader, slashing when the C's can't but an outside shot...sometimes just one slashing  layup, or one of his, "get out of my way, I'm dunking on you-all fools" plays fires our team up, he is ALL over the rebounds, has a hand in at least a third of them when he is on the floor....no rebounds, no championship ( I think
Pat Riley correctly said that)...so he isn't perfect, WOW, who is, turnovers, I have watched PP ISO turnover, Ray, Perk, KG...BBD.....except a lot of folks here just look the other way when THEY do it......seeing only what you want doesn't make other people NOT see it....! If he keeps this up, then there it is. Even if he didn't, look what he gave us IN THE PLAYOFFS, otherwise known as the only time it really matters...! (mostly!).

You know you are so right about Tony firing up the team.  When TA was getting his legs back (both times) whenever he made a play the entire team responded positively and Tony was always visibly very pumped up.

Another great thing about Tony is when he is on the bench he is the first guy up cheering, waving his towel and supporting his teammates. Not enough can be said about that.