wow, this thread turned into "who is better, KG or BBD?"
i'll restate my original thesis, and let the debate continue:
Game 2 vs miami planted a seed in my head that BBD was a great replacement for KG against teams that we can run all over. I also don't think that we lose that much defensively in those situations because although BBD can't block shots like KG, he's great at helping and rotating to draw charges. BBD is NOT a better player than KG, but he's a better matchup in CERTAIN SITUATIONS.
i do love this debate, and it got me through the work day yesterday. I'm going back to TP every post in here...
Oh and about the +/- debate, if BBD is on the floor for 1 minute and the opponent scores 1 more point he's -1. If KG is on the floor for 5 minutes and the celts outscore the opponent by 5, he's +5. The more minutes you play, the larger the absolute value of the +/- rating. If we go -332 pts with BBD in for KG, you'd seriously have to look at the rest of the team, cause that number is far too drastic to be attributed to one player being on or off the court. Plus, i was talking about fast break points, not total points.
Besides, you are saying with Perk/Rondo/Allen/Pierce on the floor that BBD is considered a scoring option? yea right. the +/- cannot be on his shoulders in that group.
Well, if you do not want to look at +/- stats (which I commend you on, I think it is a terrible stat), then unfortunately, I do not think you are going to find any statistical basis for this argument.
Ideally, you could look at fast break points to see this, but in order to get rid of the variable of other players on the floor, in order to gain any sort of validity, you would have to be looking at the fast break stats only when it is the same lineups, other than KG and Davis are in for each other. And when you do this, of course, you will have the exact same problems you just pointed out for the +/- stats. The sample size will just be way too small to be able to take anything from it.
So unfortunately, I think we are stuck using our eyes to analyze this. And based on that, I disagree with you to a point. I disagree that the team is a better fast break team with Davis, than with KG. I think KG's skills offensively, and more importantly defensively are more conducive to a running game than Davis'.
Whether it's his ability to block shots and keep them in play, to grab rebounds, while maintaining his balance, his ability to make outlet passes (KG is GREAT at that, and I can't think of any times I have seen Davis even try), or his length to be able to get into the passing lanes and get tips and steals. And of course there is KG's ability to finish inside without getting blocked. KG is pretty much the ideal big man for any fast break team.
However, where I will agree with you is that I think when KG has been in there, this team tends to slow down. They seem much more comfortable running the halfcourt offense when he is in there, and Rondo seems to step back a bit whenever all 3 of the big 3 are in there. By contrast, when KG (or any member of the Big 3) are out, they seem to change their gameplan, and Rondo seems to take his game to another level, pushing the pace, and opening up the game.
Now, I do not think this has anything to do with Davis, but I do think there is some phenomenon where the C's slow down a little too much when they are at full strength.