First, let's assume that the cap stays right around 56 million dollars and doesn't rise or fall too much. So, what is the true financial flexibility of the team in the next few years? I'll get this going with some assumptions of my own, then we can mess around with it as we all come to consensus on different options. For now, I will assume no major blockbuster trades.
Observation:
After next season, if we extend Rondo and make no other moves, we will still be over the cap. Rondo is one of our few pieces whose value is actually going up, so I'm assuming he will get an extension. I gave him a reasonable 5 year deal, starting at 8 million with 10% raises. Probably the low end of what he'll get.
Ensuing Assumptions:
Since we are over the cap if Rondo signs such an extension, and the only players under contract going into the 2010-11 season are: KG, Pierce, Rondo, Perk, Walker, Giddens, the #58 pick from this draft, the 22-30 pick from the 2010 draft, and the 50-60th pick from the 2010 draft, they'll need more players. Of course, they're over the cap. So the can only offer the MLE. On the one hand, in this 2010 offseason there are a lot of very good free agents. On the other hand, there will be a lot of teams with a lot of cap room, so the likelihood of the C's outbidding anyone using just the MLE is very small. Thus, let's say the C's use their bird rights to sign Ray to a 3 year 24 million dollar extension, a significant paycut.
Additionally, let's assume that Danny knows there's no cap space coming soon, so he locks up Davis this offseason (2009) at a reasonable 5 yr/14 mil deal (2.5 with 5% raises). Obviously, we're also in the hunt for a title next year, so let's say we sign Sheed or McDyess to a reasonable, 4 yr. 13 million dollar deal (3 mil with 5% raises). And, because the window of opportunity is closing, let's assume the C's continue to make these reasonable MLE deals for the next couple seasons.
Now the 2011 offseason rolls around. Perk will still be young when his contract is up, so let's say he signs a deal starting at 6 mil per year with 10% raises in the 2011 offseason. Even if Ray's extension had only been for 1 year, with reasonable extensions for Rondo and Perk and with a few bargain MLE deals thrown in, the C's are still at the cap limit! Knowing this, they use bird rights to extend Pierce for 8 mil per year, and knowing this would be the case they've already given Ray his 8 mil per year.
What's amazing is that if the C's end up making all of the above "reasonable" deals to keep the core together (major discounted short deals for Ray and Paul, reasonable extensions for Rondo, Perk, and Davis, signing their rookies (at a low estimate), and making some cheap MLE signings (with longer-term money in order to have something with which to entice the MLE players), the Celtics will still be at the cap when KG's deal expires, when Ray is 37, Pierce 35, and KG 36. How many stars have maintained their effectiveness to those ages? What are the odds that all 3 of our stars are able to do so, considering we've already seen obvious slippage?
I'm not necessarily advocating blowing up the C's, I'm simply pointing out that these are the factors to consider when stating things like "just sign Ray to a nice discount extension when his contract expires," or "lock up Baby for a reasonable price" or "go ahead and sign a cheap MLE deal for multiple years." Such moves are certainly nice at the time, but pretty soon you're staring at a 2012 offseason in which there have been no high draft picks, there is not (and hasn't been) any cap room with which to add a player entering his prime, the core of the team has an average age of 36. I think this is what many people are thinking about when they consider trading allen for younger pieces. There is literally no way for the foreseeable future to replace ray's salary slot or his production without trading him, since free agency is realistically out of the question for several more years as long as the C's continue adding pieces in order to win now. Therefore, it's not so much that the C's need to get players better than Ray if they trade Ray now, they need to get talent from a team trying to shed money, since the C's arent going to have any flexibility anyway, and the talent they need to get needs to be close to Ray now and better than Ray when Ray is 35-37.
To be honest, without trading Ray this offseason, I can see the C's making a deep playoff run next year, then be mired for 3 years or so in the 5-7 seed spot with no chance at a stud rookie or a title.
(I know it's hard to read charts on this blog; i'll try to toy with it to get it readable.)
| Name 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 |
| Garnett $24,750,000.00 $16,400,000.00 $18,800,000.00 $21,200,000.00 |
| Pierce $18,077,903.00 $19,795,712.00 $21,513,521.00 $8,000,000.00 $8,000,000.00 |
| R Allen $17,388,430.00 $18,776,860.00 $8,000,000.00 $8,000,000.00 $8,000,000.00 |
| Rondo $1,646,784.00 $2,623,326.00 $8,000,000.00 $8,800,000.00 $9,680,000.00 |
| Perkins $4,078,880.00 $4,250,000.00 $4,390,208.00 $6,000,000.00 $6,600,000.00 |
| Scala $3,206,897.00 $3,413,793.00 |
| L Powe $797,581.00 |
| G Pruitt $711,517.00 $729,005.00 |
| G Davis $711,517.00 $2,500,000.00 $2,625,000.00 $2,756,250.00 $2,894,062.50 |
| T Allen $2,500,000.00 $2,500,000.00 |
| Giddens $957,120.00 $1,028,880.00 $1,100,640.00 $1,986,655.00 $2,979,982.00 |
| House $2,650,000.00 $2,862,000.00 |
| Walker $542,114.00 $736,420.00 $854,389.00 $916,100.00 |
| 2009-2010 MLE $3,000,000.00 $3,150,000.00 $3,307,500.00 $3,472,875.00 |
| 2010-2011 MLE $3,000,000.00 $3,150,000.00 $3,307,500.00 |
| 2011-2012 MLE $3,000,000.00 $3,150,000.00 |
| 2012-2013 MLE $3,000,000.00 |
| 2009-10 2nd $600,000.00 $600,000.00 $600,000.00 |
| 2010-11 1st $1,200,000.00 $1,320,000.00 $1,452,000.00 |
| 2010-11 2nd $600,000.00 $600,000.00 $600,000.00 |
| 2011-12 1st $1,200,000.00 $1,320,000.00 |
| 2011-12 2nd $600,000.00 $600,000.00 |
| 2012-13 1st $1,200,000.00 |
| 2012-13 2nd $600,000.00 |
Total $78,018,743.00 $79,215,996.00 $73,833,758.00 $71,436,505.00 $56,856,419.50
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Edit:
Red=Team Option
Green=Estimate (often an underestimate, i.e. the 1st round picks will likely be more expensive as the team slips; they were based loosely on Giddens' salary at the 30th pick)
Blue=Player option
