I Feel Like People Are Overrating Bradley/Underrating Hayward

[kozlodoev]

I would not be surprised to see that lineup at least for small bits.  Smart-Brown-Hayward-Crowder-Morris is a perfectly reasonable lineup, especially considering the Cavs run LeBron as a de facto center sometimes.

So it probably stops at 6 guys who can guard LeBron, since that's against the rules.

Meh, when did that stop anyone?

[JHTruth]

AB's defense was actually pretty subpar (for him) for most of last year, along with Crowder's D. He stepped it up defensively in the playoffs and actually had several phenomenal defensive games guarding Butler, but on the whole I think AB's D was at times overrated around the league. I have no doubt that he's the best on-ball defender in the league, but that's only part of defense. He was actually pretty mediocre in help/off-ball D many times.

Other areas where he really hurt us include his severe lack of BBIQ and his lack of ball handling and passing abilities. Those are two huge upgrades that we needed badly in the starting unit. And his subpar size also was a check against him.

If we start Brown at the 2 with Hayward at the 3, overall we're much bigger with much better BBIQ, ball handling, passing, playmaking, scoring, and overall balance than we were last year.

AB actually had a negative DBPM last year during the season. I'm not an advanced stat fanatic or anything but shouldn't that number have been better for such a supposedly elite level defender? I'm not hating on AB, just suggesting maybe the reality of AB doesn't match the perception of AB among Celtics fans and that's why the front office was comfortable letting him walk?

[Ed Hollison]

I loved Bradley when he was here, but I also believe he is overrated, including defensively.

Alex Kungu on Celticsblog covered this in depth a few months ago:

https://www.celticsblog.com/2017/6/1/15714662/boston-celtics-2017-season-roster-review-did-avery-bradley-play-his-last-game-in-green

[kozlodoev]

AB's defense was actually pretty subpar (for him) for most of last year, along with Crowder's D. He stepped it up defensively in the playoffs and actually had several phenomenal defensive games guarding Butler, but on the whole I think AB's D was at times overrated around the league. I have no doubt that he's the best on-ball defender in the league, but that's only part of defense. He was actually pretty mediocre in help/off-ball D many times.

Other areas where he really hurt us include his severe lack of BBIQ and his lack of ball handling and passing abilities. Those are two huge upgrades that we needed badly in the starting unit. And his subpar size also was a check against him.

If we start Brown at the 2 with Hayward at the 3, overall we're much bigger with much better BBIQ, ball handling, passing, playmaking, scoring, and overall balance than we were last year.

AB actually had a negative DBPM last year during the season. I'm not an advanced stat fanatic or anything but shouldn't that number have been better for such a supposedly elite level defender? I'm not hating on AB, just suggesting maybe the reality of AB doesn't match the perception of AB among Celtics fans and that's why the front office was comfortable letting him walk?

Given that "Box Score Plus Minus" actually loves, well, anything that goes in the box score -- no, it's not surprising at all. Shutdown perimeter defenders do not typically produce a discernible box score effects, and if you pop open the career DBPM leaders, you'll see it exclusively dominated by players that fill up the DRPG and BLK categories.

I think a defensive stat that doesn't place Gary Payton in the top 250 and ranks Rasho Nesterovic ahead of Bruce Bowen is rather worthless.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/dbpm_career.html

[Phantom255x]

There is no way Crowder should start at the 4.  Now if Hayward is the 2, then Crowder starting at the 3 makes fine sense.

Stevens will obviously try out lineups, but I think he originally goes with Thomas, Smart, Hayward, Morris, and Horford.  I wouldn't be surprised at any number of lineups in which Brown, Crowder, and Baynes are all in various lineup iterations as a starter though.

I mentioned this in the original post, but Hayward played A LOT of the 4 during the postseason and it worked very well for him and the Jazz (he averaged 24/6/4 in playoffs).

Obviously that changes here, and he may play a little bit of the 2, mostly 3.

But I think we'll see short spurts of Crowder/Hayward/Horford playing the 4 as well when Morris goes to the bench (or Morris shifts to the 3).

Idk man.. there's a lot of versatility and potential rotations. I'll leave CBS to decide on all that lol.

[The One]

I went with HUGE.

Shot maker - shot creator - facilitator - ball handler...these are the things "Commissioner Gordon" can do very well.

[kozlodoev]

There is no way Crowder should start at the 4.  Now if Hayward is the 2, then Crowder starting at the 3 makes fine sense.

Stevens will obviously try out lineups, but I think he originally goes with Thomas, Smart, Hayward, Morris, and Horford.  I wouldn't be surprised at any number of lineups in which Brown, Crowder, and Baynes are all in various lineup iterations as a starter though.

I mentioned this in the original post, but Hayward played A LOT of the 4 during the postseason and it worked very well for him and the Jazz (he averaged 24/6/4 in playoffs).

Obviously that changes here, and he may play a little bit of the 2, mostly 3.

But I think we'll see short spurts of Crowder/Hayward/Horford playing the 4 as well when Morris goes to the bench (or Morris shifts to the 3).

Idk man.. there's a lot of versatility and potential rotations. I'll leave CBS to decide on all that lol.

You can see "short spurts" of almost anything, especially in the playoffs. I mean, we had short spurts of Gerald Green playing the 4, but noone will confuse Green for a PF.

What we're talking about here is a sustainable solution for the 82-game grind of the regular season.

[The One]

I really like Hayward's pace and rhythm.

Not rushed but he's quick.

No wasted movement but he's fluid.

[Eddie20]

There is no way Crowder should start at the 4.  Now if Hayward is the 2, then Crowder starting at the 3 makes fine sense.

Stevens will obviously try out lineups, but I think he originally goes with Thomas, Smart, Hayward, Morris, and Horford.  I wouldn't be surprised at any number of lineups in which Brown, Crowder, and Baynes are all in various lineup iterations as a starter though.

I mentioned this in the original post, but Hayward played A LOT of the 4 during the postseason and it worked very well for him and the Jazz (he averaged 24/6/4 in playoffs).

Obviously that changes here, and he may play a little bit of the 2, mostly 3.

But I think we'll see short spurts of Crowder/Hayward/Horford playing the 4 as well when Morris goes to the bench (or Morris shifts to the 3).

Idk man.. there's a lot of versatility and potential rotations. I'll leave CBS to decide on all that lol.

You can see "short spurts" of almost anything, especially in the playoffs. I mean, we had short spurts of Gerald Green playing the 4, but noone will confuse Green for a PF.

What we're talking about here is a sustainable solution for the 82-game grind of the regular season.

At least you no longer seem worried about him missing so many games.