Eastern 2nd Round: Pacers (2) Vs Knicks (3)

[action781]

This overlooks 2 critical differences — that we think will be the keys to this series.

1. Rudy Gay makes MEM a worse team -- The 2010-11 Grizzlies were actually better WITHOUT Rudy Gay. Gay wasn't on the floor for a single minute in the upset of the Spurs.

In fact the Grizz played .518 ball WITH Gay (54 games) and had a winning percentage of .642 WITHOUT Gay. He reorients the offense away from Randolph and Gasol, which was MEM's key advantage in the 1st round upset, and was a much worse defender than Battier. So Gay's inclusion here I think actually makes the Pacers a weaker team than if they swapped out Gay for, say, Eric Gordon or Ray Allen and had Ariza (a Battier-like defender) at SF.

Unfortunately for you, this is completely false.

Those who have been following all the threads know that I have already articulated that the reason why Memphis' winning percentage was .518 with Gay is because for a large chunk of that time, OJ Mayo was the starting SG and a terrible chemistry fit.  Once they took OJ Mayo out of the starting lineup, Memphis started: Conley-TA/Young-Gay-Randolph-Gasol and the team had a 27-15 (64%) record until Gay's injury.

Memphis' record with Gay out of the lineup this season 16-12 (57% win percentage, not 64).  I didn't include the 7-6 postseason record in that without Gay because I didn't find it to be a fair comparison , but it would have driven that % down further than 57%.

If you think that Conley/TA/Battier/Z-Bo/Gasol is a better starting lineup than Conley/TA/Gay/Z-Bo/Gasol, you are completely wrong.  It makes no logical sense and I also have the records above that show so.  And I know you're better than to think something crazy like that GC.  

[action781]

2. Tony Parker was a key to the Spurs losing to MEM -- Parker's poor play vs. Memphis was actually one of the key reasons the Spurs lost the series.

Unfortunately, [Parker] couldn't continue the stellar play in the playoffs.   His points per game went up, but so did his turnovers.  He struggled with Memphis' defense and it showed in the Spurs inability to breakdown the Grizz.

source

How bad was Tony? Paker's shooting dropped from 51.9% in the regular season to 46% in the playoffs. His turnovers jumped from 2.6/gm to 3.3 and his assists plummeted from 7.3 to 5.2.

Well, a couple things here.  Tony Parker was not a key in SAS losing the series.  I'm sure you can find some quote from writer from some obscure blog who thinks Matt Bonner... or George Hill... or ANYBODY was a "key" in them losing the series.  That quote means nothing to me.  The truth is that Z-Bo and Gasol's domination over the SAS frontcourt was THE key for Memphis winning (and SAS losing) the series.

Yes, how bad was Tony?  46% fg?  Oh no, that's horrible for a point guard!  An increase of 0.7 turnovers per game?!  So, like maybe 1 more turnover and maybe none at all?  Wow.  A decrease in 2 assists per game.  That is somewhat significant, for sure.  But he also increased his scoring by 2 points, which negates one of those assists.  So, did his overall production drop off?  Yeah, it did.  Did it by a lot???  Haha, no!  And you want to know something?  Almost every NBA players' production drops off from their regular season production?  Why?  Because they are now playing against the top teams in the NBA instead of Minnesota, GS, etc.  So, in reality, he wasn't that bad.  And he absolutely outplayed his counterpart, Mike Conley, that series.

[Gainesville Celtic]

This overlooks 2 critical differences — that we think will be the keys to this series.

1. Rudy Gay makes MEM a worse team -- The 2010-11 Grizzlies were actually better WITHOUT Rudy Gay. Gay wasn't on the floor for a single minute in the upset of the Spurs.

In fact the Grizz played .518 ball WITH Gay (54 games) and had a winning percentage of .642 WITHOUT Gay. He reorients the offense away from Randolph and Gasol, which was MEM's key advantage in the 1st round upset, and was a much worse defender than Battier. So Gay's inclusion here I think actually makes the Pacers a weaker team than if they swapped out Gay for, say, Eric Gordon or Ray Allen and had Ariza (a Battier-like defender) at SF.

Unfortunately for you, this is completely false.

Those who have been following all the threads know that I have already articulated that the reason why Memphis' winning percentage was .518 with Gay is because for a large chunk of that time, OJ Mayo was the starting SG and a terrible chemistry fit.  Once they took OJ Mayo out of the starting lineup, Memphis started: Conley-TA/Young-Gay-Randolph-Gasol and the team had a 27-15 (64%) record until Gay's injury.

Memphis' record with Gay out of the lineup this season 16-12 (57% win percentage, not 64).  I didn't include the 7-6 postseason record in that without Gay because I didn't find it to be a fair comparison , but it would have driven that % down further than 57%.

If you think that Conley/TA/Battier/Z-Bo/Gasol is a better starting lineup than Conley/TA/Gay/Z-Bo/Gasol, you are completely wrong.  It makes no logical sense and I also have the records above that show so.  And I know you're better than to think something crazy like that GC.  

My sincerest appologies, (TPs for the rest of the afternoon) I misread the BBall-ref gamelogs I was referring to last night and see that in fact MEM was 16-10 after Gay went down not 18-10.

And yes, I *do* agree that Pawnee's lineup is more individually talented -- I also believe Memphis' lineup was more balanced and fit better. Which of course is debateable. Which is what we're doing  


OK, so now to tackle the Deng vs. Gay matchup:

Deng V Gay - I like Gay more personally but I think this is a close and almost even match-up.

I think Gay is the better overall player than Deng.  Better in every offensive aspect of the game than Deng and still a darn good defender.  But I won't kill somebody over finding Deng likeable and thinking that this matchup is somewhat even.

I think we agree that Deng and Gay are very close to equal -- you obvs prefer Gay, I think Deng is a better overall player.

What's important for this matchup is to look at how they play one another.

If we just look at the last 4 years (i.e. toss out Gay's rookie season when he wasn't as dominant offensiveyl), what we notice is 2 things:

1. they've played to a relative draw -- each team winning 4 games, Deng scoring more & more efficiently and gettin more assists, while Gay got slightly more reb, blocks and stls.

2. Deng has defended Gay much better -- again if we take Gay's last 4 seasons, his avg. vs Deng drops from 19.6 ppg to 16.9 ppg and his FG% drops from 45.7% to 39.5%.

Deng on the other hand has an easier time vs. Gay -- with his avg. climbing from 16.0 (career) to 19.5 ppg in 8 games vs. Gay, while his FG% rose from 47.1% to an amazing 49.6%

Deng's defense and Gay's lack of it represents a 7-point swing in their traditional averages.

That might not sound like a lot, but that swing + D. Williams advantage over Parker is what we think will balance out the frontcourt advantage Pawnee has.

[action781]

This is Williams' team and he'll run the show -- dishing out 10 assts/gm while puttin in 20-25 ppg.

I'm interested to know why Williams will dish out 10 assists and score 20-25ppg.  He has ran the show on every team he's ever played on and has never once averaged 20.0+ points and 10.0+ assists in the same season.  He certainly hasn't averaged that in his 17 career matchups against Tony Parker nor in his 5 career playoff matchups against Parker.

So, you can say that he will and voters can believe that if they please... but I see absolutely zero reason why to believe it myself.

Teague and Dooling are afterthoughts -- but Dooling has shown that he's a quality backup for the last 10 years, while Teague showed he's a good NBA PG for exactly 6 games vs. CHI in the playoffs (and then only b/c Hinrich was injured)

I would be calling them afterthoughts also if Dooling was my backup in this matchup of players who will be on the floor for about 15-20% of the game opposite eachother. 

[Gainesville Celtic]

New York: You have the one true superstar in this series in Deron Williams but he has to go head to head with a PG that most would agree is still a top7-8 PG in this league and a proven playoff winner in Tony Parker. Does this mitigate any real advantage you might have had and swing the series towards the Pacers with their quality and familiarity at the 3,4,and 5 spots?

Yes -- I think the 2 keys to this series, as i mention above, are:

(1) PG advantage: Deron Williams' consistency and fit with the Knicks vs. Parkers' fit with the Pacers (i think Parker is too focussed on his own offense to fit with Gay/Randolph/Gasol; swap him for Andre Miller, Jason Kidd or even a Kyle Lowry and Pawnee closes that gap).

(2) Deng's advantage over Gay I realize we're in the minority, but Deng is a complete player, while Gay is a scorer who will sometimes rebound or defend. the 7-point swing I mentioned above is key to pulling this series out.

How good is Deng? Kelly Dwyer of Yahoo's Ball Don't Lie agrees with Coach Thibodeau in saying he's the glue guy and the key in their early round series:

And though Derrick Rose's(notes) shot came and went, and Joakim Noah(notes) was to be admired with his 14 points and four blocks, Luol Deng(notes) was the constant force behind Chicago's disruptive play on both ends. He didn't act as the second ball-handler Chicago so badly needed as they lost Game 4 in Indiana, but his penetration as a second option on a screen and roll, his ability to drive and kick, and his 3-5 shooting from long range gave the Pacers an all-around problem that they just couldn't counter.

Oh, and he also played lockdown defense, even if Danny Granger(notes) had another 20-point evening.

"I can't say enough about Luol," Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau said after his first playoff series win as a head coach. "He keeps us together. I thought his energy was terrific. He's the glue of the Bulls."

"I appreciate that," Deng said upon hearing Thibodeau's words. "We really made it a point today to come out with a lot of intensity. They have been playing hard the whole series. Indiana's been able to come out more aggressive that we have, and we really made it a point today to come out with a lot of intensity."

Deng managed 24 points in the win, with six rebounds, seven assists, three steals, a block, and two turnovers that (and we promise we're not trying to paint the Bulls forward as infallible) were the fault of teammates failing to spot up where they were supposed to on the perimeter as Deng whipped the pass. Those seven assists were key. Though the Bulls won't be handing the ball to Deng as their point forward anytime soon, the extra wrinkle in Chicago's offense was enough to give the Bulls a comfortable lead.

"When we move the ball really well," Deng pointed out after the game, "it becomes contagious. Every time we have high assists, we shoot the ball well."

[action781]

My sincerest appologies, (TPs for the rest of the afternoon) I misread the BBall-ref gamelogs I was referring to last night and see that in fact MEM was 16-10 after Gay went down not 18-10.

And yes, I *do* agree that Pawnee's lineup is more individually talented -- I also believe Memphis' lineup was more balanced and fit better. Which of course is debateable. Which is what we're doing  

TPs back at you, but I believe it is actually 16-12 (if I counted right??) when you consider a few couple games Gay missed before the season ending injury.  Memphis w/o Gay before that injury is still Memphis w/o Gay which is what you're talking about.

[Who]

Keyon Dooling is a poor backup PG. Too erratic offensively to run an offense for a team that is making a run at an NBA title.

Jeff Teague still hasn't established any type of consistent play in his two years in the league. Not convinced by him as a backup PG either.

[action781]

OK, so now to tackle the Deng vs. Gay matchup:

Deng V Gay - I like Gay more personally but I think this is a close and almost even match-up.

I think Gay is the better overall player than Deng.  Better in every offensive aspect of the game than Deng and still a darn good defender.  But I won't kill somebody over finding Deng likeable and thinking that this matchup is somewhat even.

I think we agree that Deng and Gay are very close to equal -- you obvs prefer Gay, I think Deng is a better overall player.

What's important for this matchup is to look at how they play one another.

If we just look at the last 4 years (i.e. toss out Gay's rookie season when he wasn't as dominant offensiveyl), what we notice is 2 things:

1. they've played to a relative draw -- each team winning 4 games, Deng scoring more & more efficiently and gettin more assists, while Gay got slightly more reb, blocks and stls.

2. Deng has defended Gay much better -- again if we take Gay's last 4 seasons, his avg. vs Deng drops from 19.6 ppg to 16.9 ppg and his FG% drops from 45.7% to 39.5%.

Deng on the other hand has an easier time vs. Gay -- with his avg. climbing from 16.0 (career) to 19.5 ppg in 8 games vs. Gay, while his FG% rose from 47.1% to an amazing 49.6%

Deng's defense and Gay's lack of it represents a 7-point swing in their traditional averages.

That might not sound like a lot, but that swing + D. Williams advantage over Parker is what we think will balance out the frontcourt advantage Pawnee has.

Wait, are you tossing out Gay's rookie season or not?  Because your numbers you posted absolutely have the 2 rookie season matchups where Gay scored 2 points on 0/7 shooting and 13 points on 5/12 shooting factored into them.

ADDITION:  If you consider after Gay's rookie year (which is what you originally said was viable), Gay scored 20.0ppg on 42% shooting.

I'm not ambitious enough to figure out the exact number, but when you also pull Deng's combined 17/31 shooting out of the data from those rookie matchups, his fg% comes down a bit from his "amazing" 49.6%.

[Gainesville Celtic]

This is Williams' team and he'll run the show -- dishing out 10 assts/gm while puttin in 20-25 ppg.

I'm interested to know why Williams will dish out 10 assists and score 20-25ppg.  He has ran the show on every team he's ever played on and has never once averaged 20.0+ points and 10.0+ assists in the same season.  He certainly hasn't averaged that in his 17 career matchups against Tony Parker nor in his 5 career playoff matchups against Parker.

So, you can say that he will and voters can believe that if they please... but I see absolutely zero reason why to believe it myself.

Hmm... his 3-year averages come to 19.4 ppg, 10.5 apg, so we're confident that he can continue that in this matchup  

2011: In 65 combined games between UTA/NJ last year Wiliams avg 20.1 ppg, 10.3 apg.

2010: in 76 games, Williams avg. 18.7 ppg, 10.5 apg

2009: in 68 games, Williams averaged 19.4 ppg, 10.7 apg

Teague and Dooling are afterthoughts -- but Dooling has shown that he's a quality backup for the last 10 years, while Teague showed he's a good NBA PG for exactly 6 games vs. CHI in the playoffs (and then only b/c Hinrich was injured)

I would be calling them afterthoughts also if Dooling was my backup in this matchup of players who will be on the floor for about 15-20% of the game opposite eachother. 

Haha   I was actually saying this to be generous to Pawnee.... Teague is the sexier name, but that's it.

Teague has been hyped by ATL and played better this season than last, but he's a shoot first PG who managed 12 mins/gm the last 2 years on a PG starved team.

Dooling, on the other hand, is a tenacious defender and a has been a key bench contributor on 3 playoff teams.

Teague may have a higher ceiling, but Dooling is the better player right now.

[Gainesville Celtic]

My sincerest appologies, (TPs for the rest of the afternoon) I misread the BBall-ref gamelogs I was referring to last night and see that in fact MEM was 16-10 after Gay went down not 18-10.

And yes, I *do* agree that Pawnee's lineup is more individually talented -- I also believe Memphis' lineup was more balanced and fit better. Which of course is debateable. Which is what we're doing  

TPs back at you, but I believe it is actually 16-12 (if I counted right??) when you consider a few couple games Gay missed before the season ending injury.  Memphis w/o Gay before that injury is still Memphis w/o Gay which is what you're talking about.

Yes.. Like you i"m not ambitious enough to go back and figure out the other games Gay missed here or there 

[celticpride07]

i think i am going with the knicks.  i like deron and duncan vs the grizzlies crew

[action781]

i think i am going with the knicks.  i like deron and duncan vs the grizzlies crew

Well that makes 2 people that like Duncan against the Pawnee frontcourt. You and GC. I don't think Tim Duncan himself likes himself against the Pawnee frontcourt. I certainly wouldn't if I were him after what went down last Spring.

[action781]

[action781]

Anybody have any doubts of Pawnee that they'd like quelled before votes go in???

[action781]

 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9VCcvdrhn3M
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