The Hayward S&T: Missed Opportunity? (Merged)

[gouki88]

I'm saying Turner isn't the second coming of Christ

Sounds like a strawman.

No, it doesn't. People like yourself are asserting that the addition of Turner would propel us to the next level. I'm saying it wouldn't, because despite Turner's hot form defensively, he's sucked at literally every other aspect of the game (except maybe 2 point efficiency, I guess - woo!).

Turner's effectiveness would be limited here because he'd have to fight Theis and Timelord for minutes. He most certainly wouldn't crack 32MPG, and he wouldn't have Sabonis around to handle the opposition muscle.

[Roy H.]

I'm saying Turner isn't the second coming of Christ

Sounds like a strawman.

No, it doesn't. People like yourself are asserting that the addition of Turner would propel us to the next level. I'm saying it wouldn't

Show me where I said that.

Or anything about Turner being the second coming.

You can’t, because you’re making it up.  And thus, it’s a strawman.

[gouki88]

I'm saying Turner isn't the second coming of Christ

Sounds like a strawman.

No, it doesn't. People like yourself are asserting that the addition of Turner would propel us to the next level. I'm saying it wouldn't

Show me where I said that.

Or anything about Turner being the second coming.

You can’t, because you’re making it up.  And thus, it’s a strawman.

Sorry, attributing the words of others to you. So a strawman for you, but not for others.

[footey]

I'm saying Turner isn't the second coming of Christ

Sounds like a strawman.

No, it doesn't. People like yourself are asserting that the addition of Turner would propel us to the next level. I'm saying it wouldn't

Show me where I said that.

Or anything about Turner being the second coming.

You can’t, because you’re making it up.  And thus, it’s a strawman.

"he has thoroughly outplayed every one of our big men this year."

Just hyperbole.

[Roy H.]

I'm saying Turner isn't the second coming of Christ

Sounds like a strawman.

No, it doesn't. People like yourself are asserting that the addition of Turner would propel us to the next level. I'm saying it wouldn't

Show me where I said that.

Or anything about Turner being the second coming.

You can’t, because you’re making it up.  And thus, it’s a strawman.

"he has thoroughly outplayed every one of our big men this year."

Just hyperbole.

That’s fact, not hyperbole.  I like Timelord and Theis, but Turner has been better than both.

[Roy H.]

I'm saying Turner isn't the second coming of Christ

Sounds like a strawman.

No, it doesn't. People like yourself are asserting that the addition of Turner would propel us to the next level. I'm saying it wouldn't

Show me where I said that.

Or anything about Turner being the second coming.

You can’t, because you’re making it up.  And thus, it’s a strawman.

Sorry, attributing the words of others to you. So a strawman for you, but not for others.

Fair enough.  I don’t think that Turner changes our contender status significantly, but I do think he would have made us better. McDermott would have been nice depth, and the number one would be a good asset.  In a sign and trade, that’s a pretty good return.

[footey]

I'm saying Turner isn't the second coming of Christ

Sounds like a strawman.

No, it doesn't. People like yourself are asserting that the addition of Turner would propel us to the next level. I'm saying it wouldn't

Show me where I said that.

Or anything about Turner being the second coming.

You can’t, because you’re making it up.  And thus, it’s a strawman.

"he has thoroughly outplayed every one of our big men this year."

Just hyperbole.

That’s fact, not hyperbole.  I like Timelord and Theis, but Turner has been better than both.

You keep contradicting yourself.  "thoroughly outplayed" is not the same thing as "has been better than both". 

[Roy H.]

I'm saying Turner isn't the second coming of Christ

Sounds like a strawman.

No, it doesn't. People like yourself are asserting that the addition of Turner would propel us to the next level. I'm saying it wouldn't

Show me where I said that.

Or anything about Turner being the second coming.

You can’t, because you’re making it up.  And thus, it’s a strawman.

"he has thoroughly outplayed every one of our big men this year."

Just hyperbole.

That’s fact, not hyperbole.  I like Timelord and Theis, but Turner has been better than both.

You keep contradicting yourself.  "thoroughly outplayed" is not the same thing as "has been better than both".

I’m not sure you know what a contradiction is. 

[footey]

I'm saying Turner isn't the second coming of Christ

Sounds like a strawman.

No, it doesn't. People like yourself are asserting that the addition of Turner would propel us to the next level. I'm saying it wouldn't

Show me where I said that.

Or anything about Turner being the second coming.

You can’t, because you’re making it up.  And thus, it’s a strawman.

"he has thoroughly outplayed every one of our big men this year."

Just hyperbole.

That’s fact, not hyperbole.  I like Timelord and Theis, but Turner has been better than both.

You keep contradicting yourself.  "thoroughly outplayed" is not the same thing as "has been better than both".

I’m not sure you know what a contradiction is.

ouch.

okay, fair enough. that isn't a contradiction. but you seem to be softening your earlier, more aggressive statement. fair?

[Somebody]

Against the Philadelphia 76ers:

Myles Turner (1/6 FGA) 9pts/5reb in 29 minutes and fouled out........only it wasn't against Joel Embiid (injury/illness), but it was Dwight Howard who dominated 11pts/15reb (12 free throws) in 23 minutes.

Doug McDermott (4/6 FGA) 8pts/5reb in 21 minutes and also fouled out.

Not a great night for Turner, but he has thoroughly outplayed every one of our big men this year.  And for whatever it’s worth, D12 made one FG and had four points when guarded by Turner.

And is there anyone who wouldn’t take McDermott’s eight points in five rebounds on a below average night?  His quiet night is more than any of our bench players average.

Man you love keeping this thread of yours going. Myles Turner has an awful night, time to re-post how much better the Celtics would be with Myles Turner right now, over their other centers.  Too much snow your way??

I responded to a comment from earlier today.  I’m not sure that your contribution added a lot?

Fair enough. 

What do the ## show when you compare Turner this season to either Theis or Rob Williams on a 36 min basis? I bet Turner is not as dominant as you imagine.  I have no idea, just my gut here.

For example, Rob's PER this season is 25.6.  Turner's is 18.3.  Thoroughly outplayed?

Just checked Per 36:

15.7 ppg Turner, 14.4 ppg Rob W
4.3 blocks Turner, 3.6 blocks Rob W
7.5 rebounds Turner, 8.6 rebounds Rob W
FG% 503 Turner, .750 Rob Williams

Besides 3 point shooting (which we already get from Theis, and isn't that great from Turner, low 30's), how exactly is Turner thoroughly outplaying Rob Williams this season?

Turner is doing it in starter’s minutes.  Williams is playing 15 mpg off the bench.

Rate stats are tricky.  Mo Bamba has scored more points per possession this year than Luka, Curry and Tatum.

Using PER as a the data point for simplicity:
RW3: 25.6 in 17.4 MP/g, $2m
Theis: 17.1 in 23.2 MP/g, $5m
TT: 11.4 in 22.2 MP/g, $9.2m

Turner: 18.3 in 32.4 MP/g, $18m

Similar production from the position for less money both short and long term.  Looks like good roster construction to me.

Miles Turner is a good NBA player but his production on the court isn't worth $18m on the Cs.  DA has invested in the wings and PG and because of that they look at the big positions as places to save resources through value contracts for role players. 

Despite the recency bias Kemba is still a good player.

Using a one-number metric that should be retired from any serious player analysis for simplicity?

To be fair though I don't think that a guy like Myles Turner would propel us to the next level, I think he still struggles against power and speedy guards who can pullup from three, and these player archetypes litter elite playoff teams in the East (Giannis for the Bucks, Harden and Kyrie for the Nets, Embiid for the Sixers, Bam for the Heat, Kemba for us, etc).

[Vermont Green]

"he has thoroughly outplayed every one of our big men this year."

Just hyperbole.

That’s fact, not hyperbole.  I like Timelord and Theis, but Turner has been better than both.

Thoroughly outplayed and better are not the same thing and both are not facts.  I concede that Turner has been better than any of our bigs but that is not saying much.  Thoroughly outplayed is a totally subjective metric that anyone can interpret anyway they want.  I don't find it accurate, someone else may.

And just because Turner has more blocks does not mean that he is playing better defense.  There has been nothing great about our bigs' defense this season.  I don't watch Turner enough to be able to say how he has looked.  On court off court numbers are nothing more than clues or hints.  They count for something, but unless you actually watch the game (which I have not in the case of Turner), you will not get the whole story.  So I don't know how much better his defense has been than say Thompson.  My sense is that Thompson and Theis can defend just fine, even if they get fewer blocks.

[Sophomore]

I was on board with turning down Turner and getting Thompson. I thought TT would be better than Turner, straight up, and that was a big reason. So far, that hasn’t happened.

If we are measuring the deal now, having Turner, McDermott, an open MLE spot, and one more first to throw into a deal looks better than Thompson and an empty TPE slot. But I can’t measure this deal until the playoffs - we may well get someone and Thompson may settle in.  *Right now* the Indy offer looks better. That may change.

[Wretch]

Using a one-number metric that should be retired from any serious player analysis for simplicity?

To be fair though I don't think that a guy like Myles Turner would propel us to the next level, I think he still struggles against power and speedy guards who can pullup from three, and these player archetypes litter elite playoff teams in the East (Giannis for the Bucks, Harden and Kyrie for the Nets, Embiid for the Sixers, Bam for the Heat, Kemba for us, etc).

I agree PER is old and has problems measuring non-counting stat contributions, but as a single metric stat it's OK for the sake of this argument.  I would argue that it actually helps Turner's case since blocks are a counting stat and making the right defensive rotation or making a hockey assist aren't. If the latter were taken into account I am certain there would be a strong argument that Theis is a better player than he looks when looking at just PER.

What is/are the metrics of choice for your analysis of Turner's performance v. the C's positional performance?

[Big333223]

I was in favor of bringing in Turner. I thought he'd look a lot better playing his natural position in Boston and would be a defensive anchor.

That said, I'm confused (as others have voiced) as to why this is a conversation when Hayward was a free agent? Even if Ainge had agreed to the Pacer's deal, Hayward was still going to Charlotte because they offered him more money than the Pacers were willing to pay. Ainge's acceptance or refusal of a deal doesn't factor in.

Charlotte came in a little late out of nowhere. No one thought they would stretch Batums $27M deal to open cap space. If Danny agreed to the trade on day one of free agency Turner would be a Celtic .

My understanding is that you're wrong about that. Even if the Celtics and Pacers had agreed on a deal, they couldn't have executed the deal yet. When Charlotte made their offer, it was before any deal could officially have been, technically, finalized. Someone correct me if I'm wrong here but my understanding is that as long as Indy wasn't going to agree to a larger deal, Hayward was going to Charlotte and there isn't anything the Celts could've done about it.

Incidentally, I just read someone call Myles Turner, Jeff Green and I almost died. I like Turner but this feels very apt.

[NKY fan]

I was in favor of bringing in Turner. I thought he'd look a lot better playing his natural position in Boston and would be a defensive anchor.

That said, I'm confused (as others have voiced) as to why this is a conversation when Hayward was a free agent? Even if Ainge had agreed to the Pacer's deal, Hayward was still going to Charlotte because they offered him more money than the Pacers were willing to pay. Ainge's acceptance or refusal of a deal doesn't factor in.

Charlotte came in a little late out of nowhere. No one thought they would stretch Batums $27M deal to open cap space. If Danny agreed to the trade on day one of free agency Turner would be a Celtic .

My understanding is that you're wrong about that. Even if the Celtics and Pacers had agreed on a deal, they couldn't have executed the deal yet. When Charlotte made their offer, it was before any deal could officially have been, technically, finalized. Someone correct me if I'm wrong here but my understanding is that as long as Indy wasn't going to agree to a larger deal, Hayward was going to Charlotte and there isn't anything the Celts could've done about it.

Incidentally, I just read someone call Myles Turner, Jeff Green and I almost died. I like Turner but this feels very apt.

Nope. Ainge asked for better assets coming in and or hesitated so Charlotte came in a day or two after free agency started. So the window to get a deal done was tight that’s why Indy overpaid ( then Edited.  Profanity and masked profanity are against forum rules and may result in discipline.ed about it lol)..