Blown leads

[scaryjerry]

Bucks blew a 19 point lead at home vs a Lebron less lakers and LA forces OT.

Don’t worry, Scary Jerry will just tell us that this is character building for the bucks and the fact they blew a big lead doesn’t apply to them.

Did the Celtics not get punked at home by a lebron and ad less lakers team?
I’m not here to give excuses for the bucks my man. In fact I’ve stated several times that the Celtics have clearly had a much better season and are the overwhelming favorites. A series will still likely be a hard fought 7 gamer that I’ve said several times the Celtics should still pull out. You just can’t stand that I’m not a complete homer predicting that the bucks poor regular season will carry right into the playoffs, Giannis and dame completely stink and won’t win a game against the Celtics.

[Roy H.]

Quit making posts personal.  Final warning. 

[celticinorlando]

Bucks blew a 19 point lead at home vs a Lebron less lakers and LA forces OT.

Don’t worry, Scary Jerry will just tell us that this is character building for the bucks and the fact they blew a big lead doesn’t apply to them.

Did the Celtics not get punked at home by a lebron and ad less lakers team?
I’m not here to give excuses for the bucks my man. In fact I’ve stated several times that the Celtics have clearly had a much better season and are the overwhelming favorites. A series will still likely be a hard fought 7 gamer that I’ve said several times the Celtics should still pull out. You just can’t stand that I’m not a complete homer predicting that the bucks poor regular season will carry right into the playoffs, Giannis and dame completely stink and won’t win a game against the Celtics.

I could careless that you are not a Celtics homer. But my point is when the Celtics blow a big lead you lay into them.

When the Bucks do the same thing, not a peep. You tend to forgive the Bucks of their sins while just hammering the Celtics for the same thing over and over.

And again. No one thinks it will be an easy series.

[Roy H.]

https://twitter.com/TA1297/status/1772621938579357969

This is interesting.

It is, although I think they misstated the data about 10-point blown leads.

https://champsorchumps.us/records/most-nba-blown-leads-in-2024

Overall info on "blown leads" doesn't tell us much, because leading 1-0 and then losing counts as a blown lead.  (Interestingly, if we've blown 13 leads, that means that we've had two games where we didn't lead at all.)  But, the 10 point leads stat is interesting to me.  I'd like to see even more broken down:  15 point leads, 20 point leads, 15 point leads in the second half, etc.

I think ultimately (hopefully?) we see this as a concern simply because these losses are 1) memorable and 2) self-inflicted.  They feed into all the negative narratives of this team not having the right mentality, of not being tough, of losing to lesser teams, etc. 

[Kernewek]

https://twitter.com/TA1297/status/1772621938579357969

This is interesting.

It is, although I think they misstated the data about 10-point blown leads.

https://champsorchumps.us/records/most-nba-blown-leads-in-2024

Overall info on "blown leads" doesn't tell us much, because leading 1-0 and then losing counts as a blown lead.  (Interestingly, if we've blown 13 leads, that means that we've had two games where we didn't lead at all.)  But, the 10 point leads stat is interesting to me.  I'd like to see even more broken down:  15 point leads, 20 point leads, 15 point leads in the second half, etc.

I think ultimately (hopefully?) we see this as a concern simply because these losses are 1) memorable and 2) self-inflicted.  They feed into all the negative narratives of this team not having the right mentality, of not being tough, of losing to lesser teams, etc.

Provided I'm reading correctly and you are only interested in blown leads, +15  etc. is pretty easy to parse for the Celtics because we've lost so few games this season - shouldn't be too difficult to chart this via available BBR details if anyone has an afternoon.

[Roy H.]

https://twitter.com/TA1297/status/1772621938579357969

This is interesting.

It is, although I think they misstated the data about 10-point blown leads.

https://champsorchumps.us/records/most-nba-blown-leads-in-2024

Overall info on "blown leads" doesn't tell us much, because leading 1-0 and then losing counts as a blown lead.  (Interestingly, if we've blown 13 leads, that means that we've had two games where we didn't lead at all.)  But, the 10 point leads stat is interesting to me.  I'd like to see even more broken down:  15 point leads, 20 point leads, 15 point leads in the second half, etc.

I think ultimately (hopefully?) we see this as a concern simply because these losses are 1) memorable and 2) self-inflicted.  They feed into all the negative narratives of this team not having the right mentality, of not being tough, of losing to lesser teams, etc.

Provided I'm reading correctly and you are only interested in blown leads, +15  etc. is pretty easy to parse for the Celtics because we've lost so few games this season - shouldn't be too difficult to chart this via available BBR details if anyone has an afternoon.

To be meaningful, we'd probably have to have league-wide data, and then do it as a percentage.

For instance:  the Celtics blew six 15+ point leads, but held a 15+ point lead in 50 games, etc.

And then compare that to all teams, to see if we're in any way an outlier.  Then, if so, somebody could determine if there were certain personnel groups more likely to contribute to those blown leads, whether coaching factors played in, etc.

I'm assuming that the NBA teams have the ability to look at that data, whether it's a computer or intern compiling the data. 

================================================================

One thing I'd like to see in particular: is there a pattern in which blown leads are correlated with a lot of 3PT misses?  Do teams that shoot the most 3PTs / teams with the lowest 3PT% suffer more blown leads?  If so, does the "diversify the offense / attack the basket" strategy change these negative streaks?  I know the timeout issue as a means of breaking momentum has been studied a bit, too, which is something I have interest in.  Basically, what are the factors that mitigate negative momentum?

[Celtics2021]

https://twitter.com/TA1297/status/1772621938579357969

This is interesting.

It is, although I think they misstated the data about 10-point blown leads.

https://champsorchumps.us/records/most-nba-blown-leads-in-2024

Overall info on "blown leads" doesn't tell us much, because leading 1-0 and then losing counts as a blown lead.  (Interestingly, if we've blown 13 leads, that means that we've had two games where we didn't lead at all.)  But, the 10 point leads stat is interesting to me.  I'd like to see even more broken down:  15 point leads, 20 point leads, 15 point leads in the second half, etc.

I think ultimately (hopefully?) we see this as a concern simply because these losses are 1) memorable and 2) self-inflicted.  They feed into all the negative narratives of this team not having the right mentality, of not being tough, of losing to lesser teams, etc.

Provided I'm reading correctly and you are only interested in blown leads, +15  etc. is pretty easy to parse for the Celtics because we've lost so few games this season - shouldn't be too difficult to chart this via available BBR details if anyone has an afternoon.

To be meaningful, we'd probably have to have league-wide data, and then do it as a percentage.

For instance:  the Celtics blew six 15+ point leads, but held a 15+ point lead in 50 games, etc.

And then compare that to all teams, to see if we're in any way an outlier.  Then, if so, somebody could determine if there were certain personnel groups more likely to contribute to those blown leads, whether coaching factors played in, etc.

I'm assuming that the NBA teams have the ability to look at that data, whether it's a computer or intern compiling the data. 

================================================================

One thing I'd like to see in particular: is there a pattern in which blown leads are correlated with a lot of 3PT misses?  Do teams that shoot the most 3PTs / teams with the lowest 3PT% suffer more blown leads?  If so, does the "diversify the offense / attack the basket" strategy change these negative streaks?  I know the timeout issue as a means of breaking momentum has been studied a bit, too, which is something I have interest in.  Basically, what are the factors that mitigate negative momentum?

Earlier in the thread I gave the 10-point blown lead stats.  The Celtics have an .864 winning percentage in games they lead by 10, so they lost 13.6% of such games (did those calculations myself if people want to double-check).  An ESPN article published after the game on Monday said the leaguewide percentage was 22.9% of 10-point leads wound up in losses.  So this year the Celtics don’t appear to blow leads at any kind of irregular rate, if anything it’s below average, and have just blown more because they’ve had such a lead in 82% of their games.  You’d probably see the same thing with 15-point leads, except that because there are fewer 10-point leads than 15-point leads you’d have a smaller sample to draw conclusions from (and so on with 20-point leads, etc).

[celticinorlando]

https://twitter.com/TA1297/status/1772621938579357969

This is interesting.

It is, although I think they misstated the data about 10-point blown leads.

https://champsorchumps.us/records/most-nba-blown-leads-in-2024

Overall info on "blown leads" doesn't tell us much, because leading 1-0 and then losing counts as a blown lead.  (Interestingly, if we've blown 13 leads, that means that we've had two games where we didn't lead at all.)  But, the 10 point leads stat is interesting to me.  I'd like to see even more broken down:  15 point leads, 20 point leads, 15 point leads in the second half, etc.

I think ultimately (hopefully?) we see this as a concern simply because these losses are 1) memorable and 2) self-inflicted.  They feed into all the negative narratives of this team not having the right mentality, of not being tough, of losing to lesser teams, etc.

Did the Celtics blow many double digit lead games in the playoffs last year to lose? I know a few games they got out played from the get-go, but I’m trying to remember if they blew huge leads in the playoffs.

[Redz]

Honestly blowing the 30 point lead was less concerning than blowing the small lead they had in the last few minutes, once it was a rock fight.  I think they have been much improved about keeping their foot on teams' throats when they're up big (they've had a lot pf practice with this).  It's the tight games that are the concern.  The type they're way more likely to encounter in the post-season.

[Donoghus]

https://twitter.com/TA1297/status/1772621938579357969

This is interesting.

It is, although I think they misstated the data about 10-point blown leads.

https://champsorchumps.us/records/most-nba-blown-leads-in-2024

Overall info on "blown leads" doesn't tell us much, because leading 1-0 and then losing counts as a blown lead.  (Interestingly, if we've blown 13 leads, that means that we've had two games where we didn't lead at all.)  But, the 10 point leads stat is interesting to me.  I'd like to see even more broken down:  15 point leads, 20 point leads, 15 point leads in the second half, etc.

I think ultimately (hopefully?) we see this as a concern simply because these losses are 1) memorable and 2) self-inflicted.  They feed into all the negative narratives of this team not having the right mentality, of not being tough, of losing to lesser teams, etc.

Did the Celtics blow many double digit lead games in the playoffs last year to lose? I know a few games they got out played from the get-go, but I’m trying to remember if they blew huge leads in the playoffs.

They won the game on Derrick's miracle but the Celtics blew a 10 point lead with roughly 4 minutes to go in the fourth quarter of Game 6.

[Roy H.]

https://twitter.com/TA1297/status/1772621938579357969

This is interesting.

It is, although I think they misstated the data about 10-point blown leads.

https://champsorchumps.us/records/most-nba-blown-leads-in-2024

Overall info on "blown leads" doesn't tell us much, because leading 1-0 and then losing counts as a blown lead.  (Interestingly, if we've blown 13 leads, that means that we've had two games where we didn't lead at all.)  But, the 10 point leads stat is interesting to me.  I'd like to see even more broken down:  15 point leads, 20 point leads, 15 point leads in the second half, etc.

I think ultimately (hopefully?) we see this as a concern simply because these losses are 1) memorable and 2) self-inflicted.  They feed into all the negative narratives of this team not having the right mentality, of not being tough, of losing to lesser teams, etc.

Did the Celtics blow many double digit lead games in the playoffs last year to lose? I know a few games they got out played from the get-go, but I’m trying to remember if they blew huge leads in the playoffs.

Traumatic events can cause memory loss. 

The worst one was Game 6 against Miami.  We were up 98-88 late in the 4th and choked away the lead before White's miracle putback.  But, we won that one.

We blew a 12-point lead in Game 2 against Philly (without Embiid).  A 12-point lead in Game 1 versus Miami.  A 12-point 4th quarter lead against Miami in Game 2.  A 13-point lead in the 4th quarter in Game 5 against Atlanta.  A 9-point lead in Game 3 against Atlanta. 

If we'd only protected games where we were up 12 or more, we beat Miami in 5 games and go into the Finals fairly rested, with 12 wins and 4 losses.

It's why almost the entire board -- and almost all of Boston -- turned against Joe.  The team repeatedly blew big leads, failed repeatedly in crunch time, and came out flat multiple times.  Our coping skills have suppressed a lot of that, but it was very, very ugly at the time.

[celticinorlando]

https://twitter.com/TA1297/status/1772621938579357969

This is interesting.

It is, although I think they misstated the data about 10-point blown leads.

https://champsorchumps.us/records/most-nba-blown-leads-in-2024

Overall info on "blown leads" doesn't tell us much, because leading 1-0 and then losing counts as a blown lead.  (Interestingly, if we've blown 13 leads, that means that we've had two games where we didn't lead at all.)  But, the 10 point leads stat is interesting to me.  I'd like to see even more broken down:  15 point leads, 20 point leads, 15 point leads in the second half, etc.

I think ultimately (hopefully?) we see this as a concern simply because these losses are 1) memorable and 2) self-inflicted.  They feed into all the negative narratives of this team not having the right mentality, of not being tough, of losing to lesser teams, etc.

Did the Celtics blow many double digit lead games in the playoffs last year to lose? I know a few games they got out played from the get-go, but I’m trying to remember if they blew huge leads in the playoffs.

Traumatic events can cause memory loss. 

The worst one was Game 6 against Miami.  We were up 98-88 late in the 4th and choked away the lead before White's miracle putback.  But, we won that one.

We blew a 12-point lead in Game 2 against Philly (without Embiid).  A 12-point lead in Game 1 versus Miami.  A 12-point 4th quarter lead against Miami in Game 2.  A 13-point lead in the 4th quarter in Game 5 against Atlanta.  A 9-point lead in Game 3 against Atlanta. 

If we'd only protected games where we were up 12 or more, we beat Miami in 5 games and go into the Finals fairly rested, with 12 wins and 4 losses.

Ahhh yes. The two home games vs miami that sent that series into the gutter quickly. Game 2 was tough to handle.

[Kernewek]

https://twitter.com/TA1297/status/1772621938579357969

This is interesting.

It is, although I think they misstated the data about 10-point blown leads.

https://champsorchumps.us/records/most-nba-blown-leads-in-2024

Overall info on "blown leads" doesn't tell us much, because leading 1-0 and then losing counts as a blown lead.  (Interestingly, if we've blown 13 leads, that means that we've had two games where we didn't lead at all.)  But, the 10 point leads stat is interesting to me.  I'd like to see even more broken down:  15 point leads, 20 point leads, 15 point leads in the second half, etc.

I think ultimately (hopefully?) we see this as a concern simply because these losses are 1) memorable and 2) self-inflicted.  They feed into all the negative narratives of this team not having the right mentality, of not being tough, of losing to lesser teams, etc.

Provided I'm reading correctly and you are only interested in blown leads, +15  etc. is pretty easy to parse for the Celtics because we've lost so few games this season - shouldn't be too difficult to chart this via available BBR details if anyone has an afternoon.

To be meaningful, we'd probably have to have league-wide data, and then do it as a percentage.

For instance:  the Celtics blew six 15+ point leads, but held a 15+ point lead in 50 games, etc.

And then compare that to all teams, to see if we're in any way an outlier.  Then, if so, somebody could determine if there were certain personnel groups more likely to contribute to those blown leads, whether coaching factors played in, etc.

I'm assuming that the NBA teams have the ability to look at that data, whether it's a computer or intern compiling the data. 

================================================================

One thing I'd like to see in particular: is there a pattern in which blown leads are correlated with a lot of 3PT misses?  Do teams that shoot the most 3PTs / teams with the lowest 3PT% suffer more blown leads?  If so, does the "diversify the offense / attack the basket" strategy change these negative streaks?  I know the timeout issue as a means of breaking momentum has been studied a bit, too, which is something I have interest in.  Basically, what are the factors that mitigate negative momentum?

Earlier in the thread I gave the 10-point blown lead stats.  The Celtics have an .864 winning percentage in games they lead by 10, so they lost 13.6% of such games (did those calculations myself if people want to double-check).  An ESPN article published after the game on Monday said the leaguewide percentage was 22.9% of 10-point leads wound up in losses.  So this year the Celtics don’t appear to blow leads at any kind of irregular rate, if anything it’s below average, and have just blown more because they’ve had such a lead in 82% of their games.  You’d probably see the same thing with 15-point leads, except that because there are fewer 10-point leads than 15-point leads you’d have a smaller sample to draw conclusions from (and so on with 20-point leads, etc).

In light of this post I think the bolded is what I would expect to see, yeah. Can still dive into the data if there's interest, though.

[W8ting2McHale]

I think coping skills have gotten worse, not better.

Expectations are high and recent failures make outliers feel like trends.

From the stats I’ve read in this thread:
1. The Celtics currently have the fewest blown leads in the NBA, with 13, and a winning percentage of over 80%.
2. Other contenders like the Bucks, Nuggets and Thunder have blown between 16-19 leads so far this season.
3. The Celtics currently have the best winning percentage in the NBA and have clinched the number one seed in the East. This is an improvement from last year.

A big concern is shooting too many 3 point shots.
1. The Celtics currently lead the league, along with the Thunder, in 3 point percentage at 39%. This is an improvement from last year at 37.4%.
2. They are attempting 42.6 3-pointers per game, three more than any other team.

When I look at these blown leads, I wonder how many occurred because the team went cold from 3 after gaining the lead? They most likely achieved the 10-15-20 point lead in part due to hot 3 point shooting. It’s common for hot shooting to return to the mean, but how often does it go completely cold, resulting in a loss?

I don’t know about the other 12 blown leads, but against the Hawks, the Celtics made 10-20 of their 3 point attempts in the first half, but only 1-18 in the second half for an overall game performance of 28.9%. (Maybe those numbers are off a bit, I’m going by memory and didn’t verify)

Normally you could expect a downward adjustment from 50% to their average of 39, but they went completely cold. And not just one player, but the entire team. Generally you would expect someone to start hitting their shots again, but that didn’t happen.

That sounds like an outlier to me.

They did adjust and limited their 3 point attempts in the 2nd half from the 1st, and overall they took fewer than their per game average, so they were aware that it wasn’t the best strategy. That doesn’t mean they should abandon the shot completely, especially when it’s an important part of the game plan.

The other side of a blown lead is how hot did the other team get from 3? Against Miami last year, they had role players who got hot. Against the Hawks, well, the Hawks shot 18-36, or 50% for the game. Just like when the Celtics win after shooting 50%, they’re going to lose if they let their opponents do it to them.

Maybe a better defensive effort stifles that?

This Celtics team is better than last year. They are shooting better and winning more games. I’m not going to worry about what happened last year because that was last year. I’m going to look forward to seeing how this season plays out.

[hwangjini_1]

and let's add this to the thread as well. the sky may not be falling entirely....



https://www.theringer.com/nba/2024/3/28/24114310/doc-rivers-milwaukee-bucks-lebron-james-los-angeles-lakers

2. Are Boston’s clutch woes overstated?
The Celtics lost another close game on Monday, blowing a big lead in Atlanta to fall to 57-15 on the season. The perception that almost every Celtics loss comes in this fashion isn’t wrong: Out of Boston’s 15 losses this season, 11 have come in “clutch” games, meaning the score was within five points in the last five minutes. That tally includes every loss during the team’s current 20-3 stretch since February 1, and it feeds into larger fears about the Celtics’ potential Achilles’ heel in the postseason.

But strictly by the numbers, Boston has survived just fine in the clutch this season. The Celtics have 11 clutch losses, sure, but they also have 20 clutch wins, and their 65 percent win rate in such games ranks fourth in the league. Moreover, the Celtics’ much-derided clutch offense ranks sixth in efficiency (121.8 points per 100 possessions, very similar to their 122.5 offensive rating overall), and the team ranks fifth in clutch defense, too.

It’s hard to trust Boston’s performance in close games given past playoff failures. But a few uncomfortable losses shouldn’t mask the title favorite’s broader strides.