Smart's Shot Selection

[Chris22]

Smart took a fall away from behind the backboard, and Brad's face was a mask of pain.

[IDreamCeltics]

What's really nuts about there still being complaints about Smart's taking threes is that it's essentially based on a sample of one game, the opener. In the two games he's played since he went 3 for 7 and 2 for 6. In the preseason before that he was nails from three. In the postseason (and April) before that, ditto.

NO, its based off three full seasons of data suggesting he is one of the worst three point volumes shooter to ever chuck in the NBA. Now can that change? Yes, even bad shooter can become good shooters, its a skill that can improve for players. However he needs to do it for more than a couple games before he gets the benefit of the doubt. If he shoots league average FOR THE SEASON then we can revisit whether he should be shooting less than 8 seconds into the clock. Untill then then answer is no. He also needs to stop h=throwing one up every time he makes one and stop shooting off the dribble. Stick to the corners and the 4th quarter.

does this calculation take into account that smart has changed his shooting form during the off season?

i think his career long poor shooting may stem from a pair of factors: 1. poor shooting form. 2. poor shot selection. (while under pressure, not a good location, or end of clock.)

based upon games since changing his form, his 3 point shooting may be getting better WHEN he takes a good shot selection.

i believe smart is among the league leaders in taking last second 3 pointers with time running out. i remember some discussion here about that. that doesnt kill his shooting percentages, but it certainly doesnt boost them

also, from the corners, smart is above nba average for 3 pointers for his career. so, he is a good 3 point shooting in the RIGHT situation.

why he insists upon putting up shots from bad locations on the floor (for him) is the puzzler for me.

given the changes in his shooting form and the sss on this season's 3 pointers, i am content to wait and see on this.

Man, that’s an awful lot of qualifications.  You almost have to write a dissertation to explain how smart almost, maybe, could possibly be a good shooter.

yep, all of which is saying that it is too early to make definitive judgements. we simply do  not know for sure right now.

oh, and you should never write a dissertation to explain anything. you write a dissertation to answer a question. 

We have plenty of evidence on what Smart is.  He's the same player as when we drafted him - an NBA caliber defensive/hustle player who is lacking offensive skills...

If you don't think he has improved offensively since they drafted him you aren't paying attention at all. He is involved far more in the offense than he was the last two years. And he is a little more than "NBA caliber" defensive player. All his defensive stats this year have been elite.

I mean, No... he hasn't improved.  His current 2P% is .357, his FG%, is .333, his FT% is .538 and his 3P% is .302.  His A/To is 2:1, just like it has been every season of his career.

The major change Smart has made to his game this year is that he's jacking up 2 more three pointers per game than in the previous 3 seasons.

He's shooting .302 from three and averaging about 6 threes per game... Great.   

[kiwiceltic]

I love everything that Smart brings to the table... but him jacking up threes gives me the same feeling as fingernails on a chalkboard!

There have been numerous occasions this season where the Cs have worked hard on the offensive glass only for Smart to waste the possession by jacking up a three.

Think it might be time for Brad to pull on the reins a bit!   

[Alleyoopster]

This must be the 15,000th posting on this topic. I think this is "great" because the Celtics' winning record keeps getting better every year we keep discussing it.

Maybe we are all 'out to lunch' thinking that this issue is so important. Perhaps, we should be hoping that his shooting percentage goes down.  Then, we might have a better chance to win the coveted NBA Championship.   

[Dino Pitino]

I mean, No... he hasn't improved.  His current 2P% is .357, his FG%, is .333, his FT% is .538 and his 3P% is .302.  His A/To is 2:1, just like it has been every season of his career.

The major change Smart has made to his game this year is that he's jacking up 2 more three pointers per game than in the previous 3 seasons.

He's shooting .302 from three and averaging about 6 threes per game... Great.   

Preseason he was 7 for 12.
Postseason he was 29 for 73.
Last three games he's been 7 for 19, 36.8%.
But let's let the 0-4 opener determine everything.

[kozlodoev]

I mean, No... he hasn't improved.  His current 2P% is .357, his FG%, is .333, his FT% is .538 and his 3P% is .302.  His A/To is 2:1, just like it has been every season of his career.

The major change Smart has made to his game this year is that he's jacking up 2 more three pointers per game than in the previous 3 seasons.

He's shooting .302 from three and averaging about 6 threes per game... Great.   

Preseason he was 7 for 12.
Postseason he was 29 for 73.
Last three games he's been 7 for 19, 36.8%.
But let's let the 0-4 opener determine everything.

That's why they call them averages, Pitino, because you can't selectively omit only the outcomes that undermine your position.

[Dino Pitino]

I mean, No... he hasn't improved.  His current 2P% is .357, his FG%, is .333, his FT% is .538 and his 3P% is .302.  His A/To is 2:1, just like it has been every season of his career.

The major change Smart has made to his game this year is that he's jacking up 2 more three pointers per game than in the previous 3 seasons.

He's shooting .302 from three and averaging about 6 threes per game... Great.   

Preseason he was 7 for 12.
Postseason he was 29 for 73.
Last three games he's been 7 for 19, 36.8%.
But let's let the 0-4 opener determine everything.

That's why they call them averages, Pitino, because you can't selectively omit only the outcomes that undermine your position.

It's called spotting a trend.
The trend is upward.

[hwangjini_1]

I mean, No... he hasn't improved.  His current 2P% is .357, his FG%, is .333, his FT% is .538 and his 3P% is .302.  His A/To is 2:1, just like it has been every season of his career.

The major change Smart has made to his game this year is that he's jacking up 2 more three pointers per game than in the previous 3 seasons.

He's shooting .302 from three and averaging about 6 threes per game... Great.   

Preseason he was 7 for 12.
Postseason he was 29 for 73.
Last three games he's been 7 for 19, 36.8%.
But let's let the 0-4 opener determine everything.

That's why they call them averages, Pitino, because you can't selectively omit only the outcomes that undermine your position.

you are correct that we cant cherry pick stats. ("if we remove all those pesky losses from our record, we are undefeated!!!")

however, what is pointed above shows a very sss which may indicate a trend, with one bad game skewing the other 43 or whatever games. that is, is the 0-4 an outlier which actually skews the larger trend of improvement by smart? that is not cherry picking, it is breaking down stats.

to be honest, i dont know. i am a complete smart booster, but we have seen 20 to 30 game hot streaks by him before. i am hoping his new form helps, and it seems that it might. he is looking better, but i want to see the improvement over an entire season.

but smart still is the one jacking up threes with no time on the 24 clock, which hurts his shooting percentages.

worst of all, he shoots quite well from the corners, but time and time again puts up shots from the sides of the 3 point line. this hurts him as well as he is not good from there.

finally, he takes too many threes when he is in motion and not set.

if smart took most of his shots while being set, more from the corner, fewer desperation shots, he percentage would be much better i believe. why CBS let's smart continue is something i would like to know.

[kozlodoev]

The problem with Smart isn't whether or not he's trending in the right direction. He's had months where he's shot out of his mind before. The problem is that he will invariably gun himself back into his miserable average (by, for example, going 0-4 in a game or five).

So far, there's nothing indicating this season is any different, so the onus is on him to prove otherwise. Until that happens, he's still Marcus Smart.

[CelticD]

I mean, No... he hasn't improved.  His current 2P% is .357, his FG%, is .333, his FT% is .538 and his 3P% is .302.  His A/To is 2:1, just like it has been every season of his career.

The major change Smart has made to his game this year is that he's jacking up 2 more three pointers per game than in the previous 3 seasons.

He's shooting .302 from three and averaging about 6 threes per game... Great.   

Preseason he was 7 for 12.
Postseason he was 29 for 73.
Last three games he's been 7 for 19, 36.8%.
But let's let the 0-4 opener determine everything.

That's why they call them averages, Pitino, because you can't selectively omit only the outcomes that undermine your position.

It's called spotting a trend.
The trend is upward.

Last season for the month of January Smart shot 37% from 3-point range on 4 attempts (14 games shooting 37%!). But for the remainder of the regular season he shot 28% from 3.

There have been plenty of instances throughout his career where he strings together respectable 3-point shooting performances, but considering his larger body of work, it is unreasonable to suggest that he's on an upward trend due to 4 preseason games, and his last few regular season games.

Edit: ...and his playoff games.