CelticsStrong
Celtics Basketball => Celtics Talk => Topic started by: Roy H. on October 15, 2018, 05:30:56 PM
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From ESPN:
Best case: 62-20
If the Celtics win 62 games, that means the leprechaun kissed the foreheads of Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward and they stayed healthy wire to wire with limited games off for rest. It means the leprechaun slipped rookie Robert Williams a four-leaf clover to keep him on the straight and narrow and help add muscle to the middle. It also indicates Jayson Tatum is on track to become an absolute superstar.
Worst case: 47-35
The biggest question remains the ability of Irving to permanently put his knee woes behind him. If he falters, so will this team. There's pressure on both Tatum and Jaylen Brown to take a significant step forward in their development. What if they can't live up to it? And can the likes of Terry Rozier, Marcus Smart and Marcus Morris accept lesser roles on this extra-deep roster?
Agree?
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I have no qualms with the best case. May a win or two shy but nothing egregious.
Worst case seems awfully low. I guess if this team is injury plagued again and really bad, then its possible. Probably would be even worse than that. But I can't see a healthy squad not hitting in the 50s for Ws.
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I can't imagine us winning 47 games, unless we lose half our starters or something
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Both seem off to me, but are consistent with the rest of their rankings (GS for example had a best case of 67 and worst of 52; Houston and Toronto were both 61 and 45).
For most teams I would think even the worst case was generous, but the C's had pretty much a worst case last season and still won 55 games. You're telling me there's something worse than that? I think Boston should have had GS's numbers (while GS best case should be 70+), Houston's best case is 61 while they actually won 65 games last year (and ESPN actually mentions this in their first line about Houston but does nothing to answer it, seems lazy to me).
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You're telling me there's something worse than that?
Don’t test the basketball gods!
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Win total this year offers a different dynamic...
Raptors
76'ers
And assorted others will also win bunches of games....except for the Cavs, they'll be just terrible.
High 55-56 sounds reasonable with focus on last 15 regular season games on getting ready for playoffs as opposed to some all out drive for homecourt or injury city which already happened last year.
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Agree?
Nope, they already forgot we did not have Irving for the playoffs and still beat some of ESPN's darlings like Simmons, Embiid and Giannis.
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Worst case seems low.
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ESPN analytics lol
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If Celtics hit worst case, these boards will be depressing! 47 seems low with our depth....
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If Celtics hit worst case, these boards will be depressing! 47 seems low with our depth....
You bet if we win sub-50 this will be a grumpy place to be
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ESPN analysis is garbage as usual. Who was the writer that "analyzed" this? Reading the worst-case scenario leads me to believe that this person did not watch one second of our playoff run last year.
Of course we aren't winning a championship without Kyrie, but to say that we'll "falter" without him is silly. If everyone else is healthy I could still see us topping any other team in the East and making the Finals, but losing to whichever team comes from the west.
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You're telling me there's something worse than that?
Don’t test the basketball gods!
Well you make that 16-2 more inline with the rest of the season and Boston is a 50 win team. I also think it would be possible for the team to get off to a pretty mediocre start trying to figure out roles and while everyone gets back into form. If they then suffer some other injuries, then it wouldn't be all that difficult to see a 50ish win team. 47 seems a bit low though especially given how Boston performed last year.
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Stevens could take the 2nd unit and win 47 games so I'm not sure where they get that number. Now contending for a title vs not - I could see a scenario where they win 50 and have no chance at a title - just look at last year. Big thing is Kyrie, Hayward and Al need to stay healthy - and you can probably add Tatum to that list too, though I think a healthy Hayward more than equals last year's version of him.
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The best case is somewhat plausible I guess.
The only way we fall to the sub 50 win worst case is a season ending injury to Horford.
Much bigger impact than losing Kyrie as last season showed us.
Where does ESPN find these writers? Does anyone fact check or proof read their work?
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With a healthy roster (minor issues but nothing on par with last season) I believe the win column will be between 53 - 62. I think it will more likely be closer to 62. I don't think I am optimistic, I just know this team and coach are that good.
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High 67 + banner
Low 57 + ECF exit
I predict 65 + banner
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Stevens could take the 2nd unit and win 47 games so I'm not sure where they get that number. Now contending for a title vs not - I could see a scenario where they win 50 and have no chance at a title - just look at last year. Big thing is Kyrie, Hayward and Al need to stay healthy - and you can probably add Tatum to that list too, though I think a healthy Hayward more than equals last year's version of him.
Come on now. No way a lineup of Rozier, Smart, Morris, Theis, and Baynes is a 47 win team. None at all.
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Stevens could take the 2nd unit and win 47 games so I'm not sure where they get that number. Now contending for a title vs not - I could see a scenario where they win 50 and have no chance at a title - just look at last year. Big thing is Kyrie, Hayward and Al need to stay healthy - and you can probably add Tatum to that list too, though I think a healthy Hayward more than equals last year's version of him.
Come on now. No way a lineup of Rozier, Smart, Morris, Theis, and Baynes is a 47 win team. None at all.
If he had Irving, Hayward, Brown, Tatum and Horford coming off the bench maybe.
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before pre-season, I'd have said 66 high and 55 low.
after pre-season. 62 high, 52 low with 59 the likely total of wins.
seeing how poorly the roster played and fit (or more accurately, didn't fit) together on the court was very disturbing. there's too much talent for this team not to be successful but it's apparently going to take a lot longer for Hayward to get back to prior playing level and to fit everyone into a cohesive unit. definitely a situation where more training camp prior to the games (or at least better interspersed between games) would have worked out better for them.
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Best case: 67 wins
Worst case: 49 wins
My guess: 59 wins
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Stevens could take the 2nd unit and win 47 games so I'm not sure where they get that number. Now contending for a title vs not - I could see a scenario where they win 50 and have no chance at a title - just look at last year. Big thing is Kyrie, Hayward and Al need to stay healthy - and you can probably add Tatum to that list too, though I think a healthy Hayward more than equals last year's version of him.
Come on now. No way a lineup of Rozier, Smart, Morris, Theis, and Baynes is a 47 win team. None at all.
I actually consider Baynes a starter (and I think he's going to wind up starting more nights than not), so I figure he'd have one of Brown/Tatum. With Brad coaching them and the way they'd play D, I'd say they have a decent shot at it. Regular season isn't playoffs.
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My guess is low 55, high 65.
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Before preseason I would I would have said 60 wins. After watching preseason I'm worried injuries to Haywood, Kyrie, Theis (and eventually others) are going to decimate the Celtics.
Low 27 high 42. If injuries don't prove to be that bad...then, I'd go as high as 53.
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Before preseason I would I would have said 60 wins. After watching preseason I'm worried injuries to Haywood, Kyrie, Theis (and eventually others) are going to decimate the Celtics.
Low 27 high 42. If injuries don't prove to be that bad...then, I'd go as high as 53.
I'm making my judgements based more on last year's performance far more than the meaningless pre-season.
After all, our team is pretty much the same except with Hayward in the mix. Theis going down really didn't make that much of a difference last year. We pretty much killed it in the playoffs without Kyrie, Hayward and Theis.
Maybe I'm crazy but I feel like we're still a winner even in the event that Rozier has to take over for Kyrie in spots. You get less efficient offense but better D and rebounding from him.
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Before preseason I would I would have said 60 wins. After watching preseason I'm worried injuries to Haywood, Kyrie, Theis (and eventually others) are going to decimate the Celtics.
Low 27 high 42. If injuries don't prove to be that bad...then, I'd go as high as 53.
(https://c8.alamy.com/comp/KFF5MP/man-in-suit-hanging-himself-with-his-tie-KFF5MP.jpg)
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Before preseason I would I would have said 60 wins. After watching preseason I'm worried injuries to Haywood, Kyrie, Theis (and eventually others) are going to decimate the Celtics.
Low 27 high 42. If injuries don't prove to be that bad...then, I'd go as high as 53.
Man... It's hard to imagine the scenario where we only hit 27 wins -- or, in a "best case scenario", get to 42.
27 wins is Sacramento Kings territory.
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Before preseason I would I would have said 60 wins. After watching preseason I'm worried injuries to Haywood, Kyrie, Theis (and eventually others) are going to decimate the Celtics.
Low 27 high 42. If injuries don't prove to be that bad...then, I'd go as high as 53.
Man... It's hard to imagine the scenario where we only hit 27 wins -- or, in a "best case scenario", get to 42.
27 wins is Sacramento Kings territory.
Generally, I'm not this pessimistic, but I didn't see anything in preseason that indicated that this would be a winning team.
My biggest worry (and the fear that made me mega-skeptical of the Irving trade) is the health of his knee. Additional surgeries generally make knees worse.
As for Haywood he now has back problems. They can linger for years. His has flared up again. Will this be a chronic injury? Even if not, can he return to his old form with his broken foot.
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Before preseason I would I would have said 60 wins. After watching preseason I'm worried injuries to Haywood, Kyrie, Theis (and eventually others) are going to decimate the Celtics.
Low 27 high 42. If injuries don't prove to be that bad...then, I'd go as high as 53.
This is a take like "after watching the first summer league game, I can tell [Top 10 pick] will never have an NBA career" on steroids.
Imagine believing that, best case, Hayward is worth -13 wins (and that's before accounting for any improvement from the young guys). Or, "if injuries don't prove to be that bad", at least -2 wins
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Before preseason I would I would have said 60 wins. After watching preseason I'm worried injuries to Haywood, Kyrie, Theis (and eventually others) are going to decimate the Celtics.
Low 27 high 42. If injuries don't prove to be that bad...then, I'd go as high as 53.
Man... It's hard to imagine the scenario where we only hit 27 wins -- or, in a "best case scenario", get to 42.
27 wins is Sacramento Kings territory.
Generally, I'm not this pessimistic, but I didn't see anything in preseason that indicated that this would be a winning team.
My biggest worry (and the fear that made me mega-skeptical of the Irving trade) is the health of his knee. Additional surgeries generally make knees worse.
As for Haywood he now has back problems. They can linger for years. His has flared up again. Will this be a chronic injury? Even if not, can he return to his old form with his broken foot.
Hayward. Brendan Haywood retired in 2015. And even if he never played another game for us, we won 55 without him last year.
As for Irving, he didn't have another surgery in the normal sense if the word. He had the hardware that was previously put in removed. Having more knee surgeries is generally only an issue when they are performed on ligaments/cartilage/tendons because of the way they heal, but removing screws and wire from a knee won't have any effect on his tendons/ligaments/cartilage
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Both of those scenarios seem like they are about 5 wins short. They won 55 games last season, with Hayward missing the whole season, Irving missing 22 games, and a 19 year old rookie in the starting line-up. I can't imagine (nor do I want to) a worst case scenario than what we experienced last season, so 47 wins seems far too low. Their best case scenario is 62 wins, assuming Irving and Hayward are healthy for the entire season? So a healthy Irving and Hayward, along with the second year from one of the most promising young players in the NBA, is only worth 7 wins max?
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Both of those scenarios seem like they are about 5 wins short. They won 55 games last season, with Hayward missing the whole season, Irving missing 22 games, and a 19 year old rookie in the starting line-up. I can't imagine (nor do I want to) a worst case scenario than what we experienced last season, so 47 wins seems far too low. Their best case scenario is 62 wins, assuming Irving and Hayward are healthy for the entire season? So a healthy Irving and Hayward, along with the second year from one of the most promising young players in the NBA, is only worth 7 wins max?
ESPN tends to go by point differential. The CBS factor is continuously forgotten.
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I don't understand writers basing team's performance on Kyrie and Gordon's health. This team went to the ECF without them (1 game short of finals). A team that good should be able to win 60 games.
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Best Case: 65-17, Houston's record last season seems like a good benchmark.
Worst Case: 54-28, I can't see how they could be significantly worse than last season. It just wouldn't make sense, even if there were injuries.
My Predication: 62-20
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56-26
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70-82
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My official projection is 62 wins
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Who would have imagined that ESPN's low projection of 47 might actually be overshooting based on the first 20 games.
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Best Case: 65-17, Houston's record last season seems like a good benchmark.
Worst Case: 54-28, I can't see how they could be significantly worse than last season. It just wouldn't make sense, even if there were injuries.
My Predication: 62-20
Yesterday, I was trying to convince myself that it was still early in the season and the Celtics could still match my prediction, they'd just have to go... *does math in head*... 52-10?! Yikes. That's tough.
They're 11-10 now. To make my worst case (54 wins) they have to go 43-18 which would be a .705 win %, equal to 57-58 wins. I do think this team has lots of talent and if they get their roles figured out, hitting 54-55 wins is totally in play.