Author Topic: Do Danny's moves this summer indicate he thinks we are ready?  (Read 8167 times)

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Re: do Dannys moves this summer indicate he thinks we are ready?
« Reply #60 on: September 04, 2018, 11:31:50 AM »

Offline Moranis

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No.  I think the opposite actually.  If Danny thought the team was truly ready to win a title he wouldn't have hesitated to go into the luxury tax and use all the exceptions.  The fact that he avoided the tax like the plague says to me that he doesn't think the team is truly ready to win a title and thus he didn't want to start the tax clock ticking on a team that wasn't likely to win the title.  He isn't giving up on the season and the Celtics clearly have a very good shot at coming out of the East, but when you have exceptions and there are players out there that could help, and you don't use them, that says a lot.

I think you're assuming a lot of Danny Ainge that doesn't quite hold true when you look at his history of making moves. Yes, he doesn't hesitate to go into tax land when needed, but he's always kept an eye on future fiscal responsibility. All you have to do is look at his moves during the Pierce-Garnett-Allen era.
But that is in fact my point.  Ainge doesn't hesitate to go into the tax when he has a team he thinks is truly capable of winning a title, but he didn't do that this summer.

The 07-11 era was a different animal, so Ainge's behavior then isn't a great analogy. Our window was projected to be "one more year" for the last three years of that run, so of course Danny was emptying the till.

Now, we are looking at 5-7 years of contention if things go reasonably well, and the tax bill we pay this year will affect our options in all subsequent years. The cost-benefit is different.

We also happen to have a deeper team now, and the extra talent we can get with another roster addition is lower on the margin.

Also, and this can't be stressed enough, Boston is currently a taxpaying team this year.
Barely, and I don't expect Boston to pay the tax this year, otherwise there would have been no reason in the world not to make the team better and spend the MLE this summer.
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Re: do Dannys moves this summer indicate he thinks we are ready?
« Reply #61 on: September 04, 2018, 01:15:17 PM »

Offline bogg

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Also, and this can't be stressed enough, Boston is currently a taxpaying team this year.
Barely, and I don't expect Boston to pay the tax this year, otherwise there would have been no reason in the world not to make the team better and spend the MLE this summer.

I'm less convinced that Ainge is going to salary-dump Morris, replace him with a minimum contract, and spend the season operating under a de facto hard cap. I would at least wait for him to actually show some sort of indication he's going to do it before going off about it. As it is, without an easily identifiable hole on the roster that needs plugging (please stop saying Illyasova. He signed with the non-tax mid-level) it isn't crazy to hold on to the exception for the veteran buyout merry-go-round in the winter instead of spending money for the sake of spending money.

Right now, Boston is a tax-paying team.

Re: do Dannys moves this summer indicate he thinks we are ready?
« Reply #62 on: September 04, 2018, 01:18:59 PM »

Offline footey

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No.  I think the opposite actually.  If Danny thought the team was truly ready to win a title he wouldn't have hesitated to go into the luxury tax and use all the exceptions.  The fact that he avoided the tax like the plague says to me that he doesn't think the team is truly ready to win a title and thus he didn't want to start the tax clock ticking on a team that wasn't likely to win the title.  He isn't giving up on the season and the Celtics clearly have a very good shot at coming out of the East, but when you have exceptions and there are players out there that could help, and you don't use them, that says a lot.

Which players where out there this summer that you think would have been worth going into the luxury tax for?
If I thought this team could realistically win a title, any number of players could have been added that would have strengthened the bench, especially at the PF and C positions.  Ilyasova comes immediately to mind.  Heck bringing back Amir Johnson would have made sense or going with Lopez, McDermott or countless other guys that are the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, or 5th big on this team (not to mention Cousins, a simple phone call and he might have been a Celtic).  Getting another great shooter for the bench like Belinelli or Curry would have made a lot of sense as well. 

But you see, when you aren't all that close, those players aren't worth signing.  That is the point I was making.

Even if money and luxury tax were not an issue, I just don't see any of those guys getting regular minutes under Stevens with the depth we already have.

Lopez would be used the way Monroe was last year due to his defensive limitations. Stevens relies on centers that can rotate quickly and hit threes. Lopez would not play over Theiss and Baynes.  Amir Johnson was on his last legs when he was here before. He's even more useless now. Stevens had a hard time keeping him in back then.

Ilyasova, McDermott and Belinelli would not get minutes in our crowded rotation either. Who would they take minutes from? Tatum, Hayward and Morris, or Smart, Brown and Rozier? Is that worth going over the cap for? Would that make any difference in the playoffs when rotations generally get even shorter?

I think Ainge is fully willing to use the exceptions we have left and go into the luxury tax if a player worth using it on becomes available. It might happen after the trade deadline.
Ilyasova is a PF.  He probably is the 2nd best big man on the team if he was signed.  He is the perfect stretch 4 for this team.  He was absolutely available at a reasonable price.  He is exactly the type of player that would be in the regular rotation with an important role.  But he isn't going to elevate any team very much, so you don't sign him and go into the luxury tax to sign him.


We all know by now, Stevens doesn't run the team that way. In his mind, there are no 'power forwards'. There are bigs, swings, and ball handlers. He uses one big, who can rotate well and shoot from the outside, and many swings. Ersan would be a swing, as he could never function defensively as a big, and would not take minutes from the other swings on this squad as his defense and perimeter shooting are inferior to the other rotation swings.
so Horford is a swing? I mean him and Baynes started and played a good amount of minutes together?

Sometimes Stevens goes with two 'bigs'. They are interchangeable , neither one is a 'center' or 'power forward' when they play together.  Both of them were shooting threes and switching well on defense. Baynes and Horford both shut down Embiid in the playoffs and were nailing three pointers for example. Theiss can do the same. When Stevens goes smaller, he uses one big and adds another swing, like Morris, Tatum, Hayward, Brown, or when he goes super small, he adds another ball handler, like when he would add Rozier or Larkin instead of a big. There's really no need for Ersan.

This was a team that was within a game of going to the Finals with basically our bench. Going over the cap to add guys who won't get minutes on this super deep roster wont help. This roster is tailor-made for Stevens coaching style. Anyone you consider adding has to be within the perspective of 'do they fit on Stevens system'? Then, are they good enough to take minutes away from any of the other guys already on the roster?

There's already going to be a crunch to keep guys who played 30+ minutes a game during the playoffs last season happy when we add Kyrie, Hayward and Theiss back in the mix. Taking even more minutes away from guys like Rozier, Brown, Tatum, Smart, Baynes, and Morris for players who don't make us better is bad management.
Except those guys would in fact get minutes.  Ilyasova, for example, is absolutely better than Theis and Semi, and against many lineups would be a better option than Baynes.  He also does a lot of things a lot better than Morris (he is a better rebounder and more consistent shooter).  This notion that someone like Ilyasova wouldn't play on this team is just nonsense.  The same is also true of excellent shooters like Belinelli or Curry.  Both provide consistent long range shooting that Boston really doesn't have on its bench.  Rozier is incredibly streaky and I frankly consider Tatum a starter even if he starts on the bench.  Having another guard that can consistently hit from deep would have been great and would consistently get minutes.

Those guys would all help a contender, but Boston didn't even bother spending the MLE because I really don't think Ainge believes this team has a chance of beating Golden State or Houston, if it even gets by Toronto (who is an absolute and real threat to Boston in the East, whether this board wants to acknowledge it).

The way you overrate is Illyasova is laughable. Since the 2014-15 season he has switched teams 8 times for a reason. You cited rebounding and shooting, but numbers indicate it's much closer than you think.

Last 3 seasons

Morris RPG
5.1 - 4.6 - 5.4 (don't forget Morris was playing primarily SF in Detroit, thus less reb opportunities)
Illyasova RPG
5.4 - 5.9 - 5.9

Morris FG%
43.4 - 41.8 - 42.9
Illyasova FG%
42.4 - 43.1 - 45.2

Morris 3PT%
36.2 - 33.1 - 36.8
Illyasova 3PT%
36.3 - 35.3 - 36.0


Theis, Morris, Baynes, Rozier, and Smart. That's our bench rotation. Illyasova and Belinelli wouldn't get any playing time at all with a healthy roster. It's almost as though you missed the entire series vs Philly and didn't see how pathetic both those players were against the very players (since you didn't see it we were without Hayward, Irving, or Theis) you think they're going to get minutes from. Plus, both are basically turnstiles defensively. Illyasova can take charges, but he's a sieve otherwise.

Here's what both averaged during the series-
Illyasova
FG% 33.3
3PT% 21.4
PPG 7.8

Belinelli
FG% 34.1
3PT% 31.3
PPG 9.2
per game numbers.  really.  per 36 or RB% there is a significant difference between Morris and Ilyasova.  Significant.  Ilyasova is a much better rebounder than Morris. 

No question they had a bad series (they were both pretty good in the 5 game win over Miami though), but just for the sake of comparison how was Morris in the Philly series?  How did Horford shoot from deep?  Smart was even worse than normal offensively.  If we judge players on a 5 game series, we aren't doing a very good job (look no further than Boston's 5 game loss to the Cavs the year before when guys like Rozier, Olynyk, Bradley, etc. were terrible).

As the person who criticized Jaylen Brown’s abilities off a single game 7 vs. Cleveland, your arguments here ring hollow.
except I didn't do that and you know it.  I was making a point about using small windows to critique players and used Brown's game 7 as an example as to why that type of argument is silly.

I need to re-visit that comment.  Do you recall which thread it was in? I may have misunderstood your point then.

Re: Do Danny's moves this summer indicate he thinks we are ready?
« Reply #63 on: September 04, 2018, 01:22:23 PM »

Offline GreenEnvy

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Who was worth getting at the MLE over the summer that would come here with little guaranteed playing time? Especially before Smart got his contract and we knew we were going in the tax. Clearly Ainge planned for the MLE by signing Baynes using his rights.

I’m positive Ainge and CBS believe the time is NOW and want to put out the best team they can. The TPMLE is a nice asset to have late in the season.

Just because we are barely in the tax doesn’t mean we have to dole out a bad contract to justify going over. We have a strong, deep team with some money to play with should we need it. Absolutely love the position Ainge put us in.
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Re: do Dannys moves this summer indicate he thinks we are ready?
« Reply #64 on: September 04, 2018, 01:49:25 PM »

Offline Moranis

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No.  I think the opposite actually.  If Danny thought the team was truly ready to win a title he wouldn't have hesitated to go into the luxury tax and use all the exceptions.  The fact that he avoided the tax like the plague says to me that he doesn't think the team is truly ready to win a title and thus he didn't want to start the tax clock ticking on a team that wasn't likely to win the title.  He isn't giving up on the season and the Celtics clearly have a very good shot at coming out of the East, but when you have exceptions and there are players out there that could help, and you don't use them, that says a lot.

Which players where out there this summer that you think would have been worth going into the luxury tax for?
If I thought this team could realistically win a title, any number of players could have been added that would have strengthened the bench, especially at the PF and C positions.  Ilyasova comes immediately to mind.  Heck bringing back Amir Johnson would have made sense or going with Lopez, McDermott or countless other guys that are the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, or 5th big on this team (not to mention Cousins, a simple phone call and he might have been a Celtic).  Getting another great shooter for the bench like Belinelli or Curry would have made a lot of sense as well. 

But you see, when you aren't all that close, those players aren't worth signing.  That is the point I was making.

Even if money and luxury tax were not an issue, I just don't see any of those guys getting regular minutes under Stevens with the depth we already have.

Lopez would be used the way Monroe was last year due to his defensive limitations. Stevens relies on centers that can rotate quickly and hit threes. Lopez would not play over Theiss and Baynes.  Amir Johnson was on his last legs when he was here before. He's even more useless now. Stevens had a hard time keeping him in back then.

Ilyasova, McDermott and Belinelli would not get minutes in our crowded rotation either. Who would they take minutes from? Tatum, Hayward and Morris, or Smart, Brown and Rozier? Is that worth going over the cap for? Would that make any difference in the playoffs when rotations generally get even shorter?

I think Ainge is fully willing to use the exceptions we have left and go into the luxury tax if a player worth using it on becomes available. It might happen after the trade deadline.
Ilyasova is a PF.  He probably is the 2nd best big man on the team if he was signed.  He is the perfect stretch 4 for this team.  He was absolutely available at a reasonable price.  He is exactly the type of player that would be in the regular rotation with an important role.  But he isn't going to elevate any team very much, so you don't sign him and go into the luxury tax to sign him.


We all know by now, Stevens doesn't run the team that way. In his mind, there are no 'power forwards'. There are bigs, swings, and ball handlers. He uses one big, who can rotate well and shoot from the outside, and many swings. Ersan would be a swing, as he could never function defensively as a big, and would not take minutes from the other swings on this squad as his defense and perimeter shooting are inferior to the other rotation swings.
so Horford is a swing? I mean him and Baynes started and played a good amount of minutes together?

Sometimes Stevens goes with two 'bigs'. They are interchangeable , neither one is a 'center' or 'power forward' when they play together.  Both of them were shooting threes and switching well on defense. Baynes and Horford both shut down Embiid in the playoffs and were nailing three pointers for example. Theiss can do the same. When Stevens goes smaller, he uses one big and adds another swing, like Morris, Tatum, Hayward, Brown, or when he goes super small, he adds another ball handler, like when he would add Rozier or Larkin instead of a big. There's really no need for Ersan.

This was a team that was within a game of going to the Finals with basically our bench. Going over the cap to add guys who won't get minutes on this super deep roster wont help. This roster is tailor-made for Stevens coaching style. Anyone you consider adding has to be within the perspective of 'do they fit on Stevens system'? Then, are they good enough to take minutes away from any of the other guys already on the roster?

There's already going to be a crunch to keep guys who played 30+ minutes a game during the playoffs last season happy when we add Kyrie, Hayward and Theiss back in the mix. Taking even more minutes away from guys like Rozier, Brown, Tatum, Smart, Baynes, and Morris for players who don't make us better is bad management.
Except those guys would in fact get minutes.  Ilyasova, for example, is absolutely better than Theis and Semi, and against many lineups would be a better option than Baynes.  He also does a lot of things a lot better than Morris (he is a better rebounder and more consistent shooter).  This notion that someone like Ilyasova wouldn't play on this team is just nonsense.  The same is also true of excellent shooters like Belinelli or Curry.  Both provide consistent long range shooting that Boston really doesn't have on its bench.  Rozier is incredibly streaky and I frankly consider Tatum a starter even if he starts on the bench.  Having another guard that can consistently hit from deep would have been great and would consistently get minutes.

Those guys would all help a contender, but Boston didn't even bother spending the MLE because I really don't think Ainge believes this team has a chance of beating Golden State or Houston, if it even gets by Toronto (who is an absolute and real threat to Boston in the East, whether this board wants to acknowledge it).

The way you overrate is Illyasova is laughable. Since the 2014-15 season he has switched teams 8 times for a reason. You cited rebounding and shooting, but numbers indicate it's much closer than you think.

Last 3 seasons

Morris RPG
5.1 - 4.6 - 5.4 (don't forget Morris was playing primarily SF in Detroit, thus less reb opportunities)
Illyasova RPG
5.4 - 5.9 - 5.9

Morris FG%
43.4 - 41.8 - 42.9
Illyasova FG%
42.4 - 43.1 - 45.2

Morris 3PT%
36.2 - 33.1 - 36.8
Illyasova 3PT%
36.3 - 35.3 - 36.0


Theis, Morris, Baynes, Rozier, and Smart. That's our bench rotation. Illyasova and Belinelli wouldn't get any playing time at all with a healthy roster. It's almost as though you missed the entire series vs Philly and didn't see how pathetic both those players were against the very players (since you didn't see it we were without Hayward, Irving, or Theis) you think they're going to get minutes from. Plus, both are basically turnstiles defensively. Illyasova can take charges, but he's a sieve otherwise.

Here's what both averaged during the series-
Illyasova
FG% 33.3
3PT% 21.4
PPG 7.8

Belinelli
FG% 34.1
3PT% 31.3
PPG 9.2
per game numbers.  really.  per 36 or RB% there is a significant difference between Morris and Ilyasova.  Significant.  Ilyasova is a much better rebounder than Morris. 

No question they had a bad series (they were both pretty good in the 5 game win over Miami though), but just for the sake of comparison how was Morris in the Philly series?  How did Horford shoot from deep?  Smart was even worse than normal offensively.  If we judge players on a 5 game series, we aren't doing a very good job (look no further than Boston's 5 game loss to the Cavs the year before when guys like Rozier, Olynyk, Bradley, etc. were terrible).

As the person who criticized Jaylen Brown’s abilities off a single game 7 vs. Cleveland, your arguments here ring hollow.
except I didn't do that and you know it.  I was making a point about using small windows to critique players and used Brown's game 7 as an example as to why that type of argument is silly.

I need to re-visit that comment.  Do you recall which thread it was in? I may have misunderstood your point then.
No, but it involved Brown, Butler and Towns so probably one of the Minnesota themed trade ideas.
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Re: Do Danny's moves this summer indicate he thinks we are ready?
« Reply #65 on: September 04, 2018, 01:58:35 PM »

Offline Cman

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Who was worth getting at the MLE over the summer that would come here with little guaranteed playing time? Especially before Smart got his contract and we knew we were going in the tax. Clearly Ainge planned for the MLE by signing Baynes using his rights.

I’m positive Ainge and CBS believe the time is NOW and want to put out the best team they can. The TPMLE is a nice asset to have late in the season.

Just because we are barely in the tax doesn’t mean we have to dole out a bad contract to justify going over. We have a strong, deep team with some money to play with should we need it. Absolutely love the position Ainge put us in.

Completely agree. We are in a great position to contend this year, and into the future.
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Re: Do Danny's moves this summer indicate he thinks we are ready?
« Reply #66 on: September 04, 2018, 04:17:51 PM »

Offline BudweiserCeltic

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No.  I think the opposite actually.  If Danny thought the team was truly ready to win a title he wouldn't have hesitated to go into the luxury tax and use all the exceptions.  The fact that he avoided the tax like the plague says to me that he doesn't think the team is truly ready to win a title and thus he didn't want to start the tax clock ticking on a team that wasn't likely to win the title.  He isn't giving up on the season and the Celtics clearly have a very good shot at coming out of the East, but when you have exceptions and there are players out there that could help, and you don't use them, that says a lot.

I think you're assuming a lot of Danny Ainge that doesn't quite hold true when you look at his history of making moves. Yes, he doesn't hesitate to go into tax land when needed, but he's always kept an eye on future fiscal responsibility. All you have to do is look at his moves during the Pierce-Garnett-Allen era.
But that is in fact my point.  Ainge doesn't hesitate to go into the tax when he has a team he thinks is truly capable of winning a title, but he didn't do that this summer.

Key phrase, "when needed". Or do you forget Posey, Tony Allen, etc.? And he was always vet. minimum contract hunting, while keeping going after 3+ year contracts for 2nd round rookies using mid-level exceptions.

Point is, he didn't go into tax land (aka didn't throw money around frivolously) just merely because he could. Though after some point it became inevitable because of the contracts we were carrying that'd we be in tax land regardless.