I wanted to look at the finances myself. Obviously it goes out the window if you think you can get IT for less than the max, but I don’t think you can bank on that at all, given the FA money floating around.
Here are the cap estimates I used:
Cap:
2016-17: 94
2017-18: 99
2018-19: 104
2019-20: 109
2020-21: 114
So then I think it would look like this:
For each player, it has their age in years.days, followed by the # season it would be followed by the player’s age that season followed by the annual salary.
IT:
28.168 yrs
2016-17: 9: 28: 6.3
2017-18: 10: 29: 31.2
2018-19: 11: 30: 33.7
2019-20: 12: 31: 36.4
2020-21: 13: 32: 39.3
2021-22: 14: 33: 42.4
So that’s 6 yrs 189.3 million, or 31.6 per year through his age 33 season
Irving has 2 options. He could decline his player option, sign the max extension when possible; or he could pick up his player option and sign the 5 yr max a year later, which would make him a 10 yr player when he signs, so it would be 35% instead of 30%.
Irving (decline player option)
25.124 yrs
2016-17: 7: 25: 18.9
2017-18: 8: 26: 20.1
2018-19: 9: 27: 32.7
2019-20: 10: 28: 35.3
2020-21: 11: 29: 38.14
2021-22: 12: 30: 41.2
2022-23: 13: 31: 44.5
So that would be 7 seasons, 230.8 million, or 33 million per year for 7 years through just his age 31 season.
Irving (pick up player option; sign 35% max):
25.124 yrs
2016-17: 7: 25: 18.9
2017-18: 8: 26: 20.1
2018-19: 9: 27: 21.3
2019-20: 10: 28: 39.9
2020-21: 11: 29: 43.1
2021-22: 12: 30: 46.5
2022-23: 13: 31: 50.3
2023-24: 14: 32: 54.3
This option is 8 years, 294.3, or 36.8 million per year through his age 32 season.
So that’s tough. IT is really good offensively. Both are poor defensively. If Irving takes the middle option, with the earlier raise to max contract, the money is pretty much a wash; given that. I’d take the Irving option, all else being equal, since he will likely age a little better given his size, he may not have fully hit his peak yet whereas it’s hard to imagine IT maintaining this current level (though he may remain close, obviously I like him a lot; it’s just more bankable that Iriving will sty the same or even get better over the next few years), and because the Irving contract would only go through his age 31 season.
But, that’s all things being equal; so it really depends what you else you have to give up to get him. Probably not worth the BKN pick, for example, probably not even the SAC/LAL pick. But tough to tell what it would take.