2019 60 Man Draft Tiers

[PhoSita]

And I recommend watching entire games rather than just you tube highlight packages. In a game you can see if they have BBIQ. You can see the elite athleticism. You can see if they have the basics down. You can see if they have most translatable skills, rebounding and shooting. You can see if they have iso skills.

I understand -- I don't have the time or the desire to do that.  I'm not the one who is choosing these draft prospects, anyway, so why put in that kind of time?

I know that just looking at the stats is a flawed way of picking potential draft prospects.  I do think that just looking for traits that "pop" on tape is overrated, though.


It seems like every year there are guys who fall in the draft because they're deemed too old or seen as not having the right physical traits for the NBA, but then it turns out that the things they were really good at in college, they're also really good at in the NBA.

I'm thinking of guys like Domantas Sabonis and Montrezl Harrell, for example.


Basically what I do when I'm looking up draft prospects is I'll look into who was putting up these huge stats in college, and then I'll look around who is getting listed in these mock drafts. 

I assume the people making the mock drafts have watched the tape and pay attention to what makes these guys seem like they have a chance at translating to the NBA.  So if there are names on both lists, that's when I get interested.


Of the list I posted earlier, it looks like a Clarke, Hayes, Gafford, Fernando, Hachimura, and Williams are looked at as potential 1st round prospects.  Some of the others are more in the category of late 1st / 2nd round fliers.

[slamtheking]

If the Celtics end up using their picks, I'd like them to target guys who were super productive in college and who have already demonstrated an ability to hit outside shots, rebound the ball, and defend their position.  Or who at the very least showed they could do something that's valuable in the NBA at a high level.  Rebounding, protecting the rim, hitting outside shots, running a pick and roll, whatever.

That may not be an option given where they're drafting.  But personally I'd rather take a player on the older side (e.g. 21/22/23) who was super productive and showed some high level skills albeit at a lower level of competition as opposed to drafting raw, super young prospects who got limited minutes on high profile teams.

This is how you end up drafting Olynyk over Giannis.  I just can't get behind that method, especially for a team with 3 1st round picks and that is generally a pretty solid team.  Maybe a team like the Warriors should go the safe route, but I just don't buy that Boston is that type of team that should be taking the higher floor and lower ceiling type player.  Boston needs to hit a homerun in this draft.

That's fair, but is there a Giannis type prospect in this draft?

I can get behind taking home run swings, but only when the upside is super super high and the available tape on a guy is really murky (as in the case of a teenager playing in a gym in Greece).


Drafting Kelly Olynyks is how you end up with a solid cost controlled supporting cast.

If all you ever did was draft home run boom or bust prospects, you'll end up with a lot of scrubs cluttering your roster.

exactly.  when using the baseball reference of home run or bust, those types of hitters do get the occasional home run ball sprinkled in with a lot of whiffs.

drafting philosophy typically comes down to whether the team believes in taking BPA regardless of fit or taking the best player left that fits a need.  Add in the other primary philosophy of drafting for potential (highest ceiling)  vs surest thing (highest floor) and no matter who gets drafted, the GM will always get roasted.  it's only when one player fits all those things (at the time of the selection) that the GM gets relatively little flak from the fanbase.

IF, and it's a really big IF, the C's have any of their picks left in this draft, I would expect Danny to do his usual BPA approach.  Hopefully it's someone that actually fits a need on this team (combo guard to replace Rozier, PF/C that can rebound and defend)

[nickagneta]

And I recommend watching entire games rather than just you tube highlight packages. In a game you can see if they have BBIQ. You can see the elite athleticism. You can see if they have the basics down. You can see if they have most translatable skills, rebounding and shooting. You can see if they have iso skills.

I understand -- I don't have the time or the desire to do that.  I'm not the one who is choosing these draft prospects, anyway, so why put in that kind of time?

I know that just looking at the stats is a flawed way of picking potential draft prospects.  I do think that just looking for traits that "pop" on tape is overrated, though.


It seems like every year there are guys who fall in the draft because they're deemed too old or seen as not having the right physical traits for the NBA, but then it turns out that the things they were really good at in college, they're also really good at in the NBA.

I'm thinking of guys like Domantas Sabonis and Montrezl Harrell, for example.


Basically what I do when I'm looking up draft prospects is I'll look into who was putting up these huge stats in college, and then I'll look around who is getting listed in these mock drafts. 

I assume the people making the mock drafts have watched the tape and pay attention to what makes these guys seem like they have a chance at translating to the NBA.  So if there are names on both lists, that's when I get interested.


Of the list I posted earlier, it looks like a Clarke, Hayes, Gafford, Fernando, Hachimura, and Williams are looked at as potential 1st round prospects.  Some of the others are more in the category of late 1st / 2nd round fliers.

I agree 100% Pho that way to many times GMs fall in love with the young guys that have some elite aspects of their game or they fall in love with their physical measurements and athleticism.

Too many really good players fall because so many GMs prioritize youth and atleticism over slightly older guys with overall very good skills. You see guys like Malcolm Brogdon and Draymond Green and Buddy Hield and CJ McCollum selected much lower than they should have been every year simply because they are 21 or 22 instead of 18 or 19.

It's definitely why you see guys fall every year to good teams in the middle to late part of the draft.

[Tr1boy]

I have previously posted my draft tiers in another thread but have recently updated them and expanded to 60 players. I want to post this for posterity sake.

With that said the following are my tiers as of 4/12/19, I will update this as the draft pool is finalized, medical info comes out on key guys (bol and Porter) and the combine happens. I will try to get a little info/prediction on each player and will come back to update.

Tier   Player
1   Z Williamson, generational talent with superstar potential. A good point guard will really help his early success
   
2   J Morant, all-star potential true lead guard. needs to get stronger and further develop outside shot
2   RJ Barrett, clear all0star potential who will fill a stat sheet in the NBA, needs better bball IQ to win in NBA
   
3   J Culver, potentially a smaller better shooting Evan Turner. Interesting to see how he measures at combine
3   C Reddish, prototypical NBA big wing who for better and worse seems to fit the Gay-Barnes-Green NBA mold
3   D Hunter, lacks the skill set to be a star but is the perfect high end role player for todays NBA. rich mans Luc Mbah a Moute
3   D Garland, limited to a few college games. Needs to develop both as a PG and physically but can score at a high level
   
4   J Hayes, raw high potential big man who was a late bloomer and still has alot of room to develop
4   Bol Bol, would be Tier 2 if not for his injury. A true unicorn with his ability to shoot 3s and protect rim at high level
4   B Clarke, super productive college player who will need to show an improved outside shot. his measurements could drop him to tier 5.   
4   N Little, elite highschool prospect with great physical profile who may be better with NBA spacing. Could also be Stanely Johnson 2.0
4    S Doumbouya, great size and athletic ability for a big wing. Needs to improve outside shot but has a very high ceiling 
4    KZ Okpala, well rounded wing with great size and length (7'2 ws). Projects as a 3-D type who will have to show teams he has NBA 3pt range
4   R  Langford, elite high school player who didnt shoot great in college. May thrive in NBA spacing
4   N Alexander-Walker, well rounded combo guard who should be an easy fit into a teams rotation
4    Coby White, scoring combo guard who I see thriving as a spark plug off the bench. Has great size at 6'5 but that is diminished by short arms
4   K Johnson, good all around wing prospect who has a lot of room to grow and could prove to be one of the better long term players in this class
   
5   R  Hachimura
5   Talen Horton-Tucker
5   Louis King
5   Matisse Thybulle
5   Goga Bitadze
5   Cameron Johnson
   
6   Darius Bazley
6   Dylan Windler
6   Bruno Fernando
6   Grant Williams
6   PJ Washington
6   Admiral Schofield
6   Ty Jerome
6   Deividas Sirvydis
6   Luka Samanic
6   Kevin Porter Jr
6   Chalres Bassey
6   Tyler Hero
   
7   Dedric Lawson
7   Carsen Edwards
7   Daniel Gafford
7   Shamorie Ponds
7   Mfiondu Kabengele
7   Luguentz Dort
7   Jaylen Hands
7   Kris Wilkes
   
8   Payton Prichard
8   Quentin Grimes
8   Iggy Brazdeikis
8   Jalen McDaniels
8   Aric Holman
8   Zach Norvell
8   Chuma Okeke
8   Sagaba Konate
8   Markus Howard
8   J Porter
   
9   Jordan Nwora
9   Eric Paschall
9   Isaiah Roby
9   Ethan Happ
9   Dewan Hernandez
9   Chalres Matthews
9   Jordan Poole
9    Simisola ****tu

Jontay Porter at Tier 8? What gives?  I think but for the knee injury he'd be tier 3 worst case, and given that he doesn't rely on athleticism, has high IQ and nice shooting stroke, should not get knocked down that many levels for it.

I agree

Porter is one of the most skilled big players of the draft

but injury and body that needs work, drops him down the list

[PhoSita]

Seems that a lot of the draftniks feel this is a very weak draft after the top 2-3 players.

I don't know enough to have an opinion on that, but it is striking to me that it seems like a lot of the most productive college players in the draft this year skew toward the weakest NBA positions -- guys who are 6'6'' - 6'10'' with traditional PF/C type skillsets. 

Hard to find a lot of playing time for that kind of guy in the league anymore, unless they're truly special.


Does seem like there might be some good role player value in the latter parts of the draft, though.  There might not be many guys with star, or even starter, potential, but there might be some PJ Tucker / Nick Collison / Jared Dudley / Taj Gibson etc type players who can make a difference on a good team.

[RodyTur10]

Just like PhoSita I haven't been watching much college basketball or even that many highlights.

Any tips for me, where to find some solid draft scouting reports, analyses and videos to get up-to-date?

[CFAN38]

Re-reading the scouting reports, and think you are caught up in media hype in rating Barrett in 2nd tier. Dude has too many flaws in his offensive game, starting with bad shooting, too left hand dominant, inability to shoot off screens, etc. etc.

While he may be better than most in your tier 3, that speaks more to how weak/thin the draft is.

Put another way, the vast majority of NBA GM's very likely would take Morant over Barrett, and Morant himself has some acute questions.

This leads me to my conclusion that the Knicks trade package for Davis, spear headed by Barrett, is not going to be competitive with any package we have that includes Tatum.

I have debated my Tier 2 and came to this conclusion. Pre lottery if ATL or Cavs ended up with the #2 pick I think they would have gone with Barrett. For all of his flaws he was previously the #1 player in his class and dominated in FIBA. I really think he will thrive in the NBA's more open style.

[CFAN38]

I like that you stated

4   Bol Bol, would be Tier 2 if not for his injury. A true unicorn with his ability to shoot 3s and protect rim at high level

Disagree that Hachimura is a tier 5

Paschall is a tier 9??

Tier 9 to me is either only a good NCAA player or a poor man version of Matthew Delladova or a slim or short dude that cant' shoot etc.

Paschall is better than a tier 9

Hachimura, i'm just not high on I think he is too reliant on his physical dominance and will struggle to create at the next level. To me he is Derrick Williams 2.0 a player who was bigger, stronger, and faster then his college competition but lacks a real NBA skill. I find it hard to see him falling into a clear role on a team if he isnt a star.

Paschall, ill admit I am probably too low on a few guys in my tier 9 and will need to revisit them.

 

[CFAN38]

I have previously posted my draft tiers in another thread but have recently updated them and expanded to 60 players. I want to post this for posterity sake.

With that said the following are my tiers as of 4/12/19, I will update this as the draft pool is finalized, medical info comes out on key guys (bol and Porter) and the combine happens. I will try to get a little info/prediction on each player and will come back to update.

Tier   Player
1   Z Williamson, generational talent with superstar potential. A good point guard will really help his early success
   
2   J Morant, all-star potential true lead guard. needs to get stronger and further develop outside shot
2   RJ Barrett, clear all0star potential who will fill a stat sheet in the NBA, needs better bball IQ to win in NBA
   
3   J Culver, potentially a smaller better shooting Evan Turner. Interesting to see how he measures at combine
3   C Reddish, prototypical NBA big wing who for better and worse seems to fit the Gay-Barnes-Green NBA mold
3   D Hunter, lacks the skill set to be a star but is the perfect high end role player for todays NBA. rich mans Luc Mbah a Moute
3   D Garland, limited to a few college games. Needs to develop both as a PG and physically but can score at a high level
   
4   J Hayes, raw high potential big man who was a late bloomer and still has alot of room to develop
4   Bol Bol, would be Tier 2 if not for his injury. A true unicorn with his ability to shoot 3s and protect rim at high level
4   B Clarke, super productive college player who will need to show an improved outside shot. his measurements could drop him to tier 5.   
4   N Little, elite highschool prospect with great physical profile who may be better with NBA spacing. Could also be Stanely Johnson 2.0
4    S Doumbouya, great size and athletic ability for a big wing. Needs to improve outside shot but has a very high ceiling 
4    KZ Okpala, well rounded wing with great size and length (7'2 ws). Projects as a 3-D type who will have to show teams he has NBA 3pt range
4   R  Langford, elite high school player who didnt shoot great in college. May thrive in NBA spacing
4   N Alexander-Walker, well rounded combo guard who should be an easy fit into a teams rotation
4    Coby White, scoring combo guard who I see thriving as a spark plug off the bench. Has great size at 6'5 but that is diminished by short arms
4   K Johnson, good all around wing prospect who has a lot of room to grow and could prove to be one of the better long term players in this class
   
5   R  Hachimura
5   Talen Horton-Tucker
5   Louis King
5   Matisse Thybulle
5   Goga Bitadze
5   Cameron Johnson
   
6   Darius Bazley
6   Dylan Windler
6   Bruno Fernando
6   Grant Williams
6   PJ Washington
6   Admiral Schofield
6   Ty Jerome
6   Deividas Sirvydis
6   Luka Samanic
6   Kevin Porter Jr
6   Chalres Bassey
6   Tyler Hero
   
7   Dedric Lawson
7   Carsen Edwards
7   Daniel Gafford
7   Shamorie Ponds
7   Mfiondu Kabengele
7   Luguentz Dort
7   Jaylen Hands
7   Kris Wilkes
   
8   Payton Prichard
8   Quentin Grimes
8   Iggy Brazdeikis
8   Jalen McDaniels
8   Aric Holman
8   Zach Norvell
8   Chuma Okeke
8   Sagaba Konate
8   Markus Howard
8   J Porter
   
9   Jordan Nwora
9   Eric Paschall
9   Isaiah Roby
9   Ethan Happ
9   Dewan Hernandez
9   Chalres Matthews
9   Jordan Poole
9    Simisola ****tu

Jontay Porter at Tier 8? What gives?  I think but for the knee injury he'd be tier 3 worst case, and given that he doesn't rely on athleticism, has high IQ and nice shooting stroke, should not get knocked down that many levels for it.

I just cant see spending to 1st or early 2nd pick on a player with his injury history coupled with his pre injury lack of athletism. Add to that he only weighed 210lbs at the combine.

[nickagneta]

Re-reading the scouting reports, and think you are caught up in media hype in rating Barrett in 2nd tier. Dude has too many flaws in his offensive game, starting with bad shooting, too left hand dominant, inability to shoot off screens, etc. etc.

While he may be better than most in your tier 3, that speaks more to how weak/thin the draft is.

Put another way, the vast majority of NBA GM's very likely would take Morant over Barrett, and Morant himself has some acute questions.

This leads me to my conclusion that the Knicks trade package for Davis, spear headed by Barrett, is not going to be competitive with any package we have that includes Tatum.

I have debated my Tier 2 and came to this conclusion. Pre lottery if ATL or Cavs ended up with the #2 pick I think they would have gone with Barrett. For all of his flaws he was previously the #1 player in his class and dominated in FIBA. I really think he will thrive in the NBA's more open style.

Being the #1 HS recruit should make no difference in evaluating talent. Avery Bradley, Brandon Jennings, Harrison Barnes and Nerlens Noel are examples of #1 HS recruits. They were all rightfully evaluated lower because of their play and those evaluations were correct. You can't ignore what players do in their 1st year at ultra competitive basketball because they were rated highly coming out of HS playing extremely less competitive basketball.

[CFAN38]

Just like PhoSita I haven't been watching much college basketball or even that many highlights.

Any tips for me, where to find some solid draft scouting reports, analyses and videos to get up-to-date?

I like the tankathon player comp tool and the ringer draft guide

[liam]

I have previously posted my draft tiers in another thread but have recently updated them and expanded to 60 players. I want to post this for posterity sake.

With that said the following are my tiers as of 4/12/19, I will update this as the draft pool is finalized, medical info comes out on key guys (bol and Porter) and the combine happens. I will try to get a little info/prediction on each player and will come back to update.

Tier   Player
1   Z Williamson, generational talent with superstar potential. A good point guard will really help his early success
   
2   J Morant, all-star potential true lead guard. needs to get stronger and further develop outside shot
2   RJ Barrett, clear all0star potential who will fill a stat sheet in the NBA, needs better bball IQ to win in NBA
   
3   J Culver, potentially a smaller better shooting Evan Turner. Interesting to see how he measures at combine
3   C Reddish, prototypical NBA big wing who for better and worse seems to fit the Gay-Barnes-Green NBA mold
3   D Hunter, lacks the skill set to be a star but is the perfect high end role player for todays NBA. rich mans Luc Mbah a Moute
3   D Garland, limited to a few college games. Needs to develop both as a PG and physically but can score at a high level
   
4   J Hayes, raw high potential big man who was a late bloomer and still has alot of room to develop
4   Bol Bol, would be Tier 2 if not for his injury. A true unicorn with his ability to shoot 3s and protect rim at high level
4   B Clarke, super productive college player who will need to show an improved outside shot. his measurements could drop him to tier 5.   
4   N Little, elite highschool prospect with great physical profile who may be better with NBA spacing. Could also be Stanely Johnson 2.0
4    S Doumbouya, great size and athletic ability for a big wing. Needs to improve outside shot but has a very high ceiling 
4    KZ Okpala, well rounded wing with great size and length (7'2 ws). Projects as a 3-D type who will have to show teams he has NBA 3pt range
4   R  Langford, elite high school player who didnt shoot great in college. May thrive in NBA spacing
4   N Alexander-Walker, well rounded combo guard who should be an easy fit into a teams rotation
4    Coby White, scoring combo guard who I see thriving as a spark plug off the bench. Has great size at 6'5 but that is diminished by short arms
4   K Johnson, good all around wing prospect who has a lot of room to grow and could prove to be one of the better long term players in this class
   
5   R  Hachimura
5   Talen Horton-Tucker
5   Louis King
5   Matisse Thybulle
5   Goga Bitadze
5   Cameron Johnson
   
6   Darius Bazley
6   Dylan Windler
6   Bruno Fernando
6   Grant Williams
6   PJ Washington
6   Admiral Schofield
6   Ty Jerome
6   Deividas Sirvydis
6   Luka Samanic
6   Kevin Porter Jr
6   Chalres Bassey
6   Tyler Hero
   
7   Dedric Lawson
7   Carsen Edwards
7   Daniel Gafford
7   Shamorie Ponds
7   Mfiondu Kabengele
7   Luguentz Dort
7   Jaylen Hands
7   Kris Wilkes
   
8   Payton Prichard
8   Quentin Grimes
8   Iggy Brazdeikis
8   Jalen McDaniels
8   Aric Holman
8   Zach Norvell
8   Chuma Okeke
8   Sagaba Konate
8   Markus Howard
8   J Porter
   
9   Jordan Nwora
9   Eric Paschall
9   Isaiah Roby
9   Ethan Happ
9   Dewan Hernandez
9   Chalres Matthews
9   Jordan Poole
9    Simisola ****tu

Jontay Porter at Tier 8? What gives?  I think but for the knee injury he'd be tier 3 worst case, and given that he doesn't rely on athleticism, has high IQ and nice shooting stroke, should not get knocked down that many levels for it.

I agree

Porter is one of the most skilled big players of the draft

but injury and body that needs work, drops him down the list

There are two guys in the 9th tier in Roby and Paschall that I like a lot. I also like just about every player in that 5th tier. This draft might not be full of stars but I think it might be full of solid role players.

TP to CFAN38 for posting this.

[Who]

Does Hachimura remind anyone else of Marcus Morris when Morris was at Kansas?

[CFAN38]

Re-reading the scouting reports, and think you are caught up in media hype in rating Barrett in 2nd tier. Dude has too many flaws in his offensive game, starting with bad shooting, too left hand dominant, inability to shoot off screens, etc. etc.

While he may be better than most in your tier 3, that speaks more to how weak/thin the draft is.

Put another way, the vast majority of NBA GM's very likely would take Morant over Barrett, and Morant himself has some acute questions.

This leads me to my conclusion that the Knicks trade package for Davis, spear headed by Barrett, is not going to be competitive with any package we have that includes Tatum.

I have debated my Tier 2 and came to this conclusion. Pre lottery if ATL or Cavs ended up with the #2 pick I think they would have gone with Barrett. For all of his flaws he was previously the #1 player in his class and dominated in FIBA. I really think he will thrive in the NBA's more open style.

Being the #1 HS recruit should make no difference in evaluating talent. Avery Bradley, Brandon Jennings, Harrison Barnes and Nerlens Noel are examples of #1 HS recruits. They were all rightfully evaluated lower because of their play and those evaluations were correct. You can't ignore what players do in their 1st year at ultra competitive basketball because they were rated highly coming out of HS playing extremely less competitive basketball.

I agree being the #1 player in a class isn’t a guarantee the a player will have NBA success. However it does represent a pretty comprehensive ranking of all the players in a given class over multiple years. I look at it as one tool when assessing prospects.

As for his 1 year in college, people love to not pick his production bottom like is that he filled the stat sheet as a freshman playing in the best conference in college basketball.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/rj-barrett-1.html

His statistical production was very similar at the FIBA U19 where he was named MVP.

https://www.fiba.basketball/world/u19/2017/player/RJ-Barrett

Does he need to show a better over all b-ball IQ. Yes.
Does he need to improve giant outside shot? Yes

But those facts can’t over shadow the fact that he has been very productive at ever level of competition, has excellent positional size, and is as close to a can’t miss prospect as you will find in this class.

[Tr1boy]

I like that you stated

4   Bol Bol, would be Tier 2 if not for his injury. A true unicorn with his ability to shoot 3s and protect rim at high level

Disagree that Hachimura is a tier 5

Paschall is a tier 9??

Tier 9 to me is either only a good NCAA player or a poor man version of Matthew Delladova or a slim or short dude that cant' shoot etc.

Paschall is better than a tier 9

Hachimura, i'm just not high on I think he is too reliant on his physical dominance and will struggle to create at the next level. To me he is Derrick Williams 2.0 a player who was bigger, stronger, and faster then his college competition but lacks a real NBA skill. I find it hard to see him falling into a clear role on a team if he isnt a star.

Paschall, ill admit I am probably too low on a few guys in my tier 9 and will need to revisit them.

Hachimura has a higher bbiq than you give him credit for.  He is a good passer and good feel for the game

this said, I do agree he did resort to his physical strength.....and it will be interesting to see if this translates at the next level where he is going to battle "strong" opponents, night in and night out

His frame and leaping ability is also similar to Tatum, though plays more like a PF

I still think he is better than a tier 5 ....which imo is off the bench ceiling.