Author Topic: The Concept of Trading High and Why Fans Obviously Hate It  (Read 3938 times)

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Re: The Concept of Trading High and Why Fans Obviously Hate It
« Reply #15 on: January 16, 2019, 09:43:49 AM »

Offline JBcat

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Great topic. TP.

I agree with the general premise of trading high on a player.  Ainge has talked about it in the past that he learned that from Red.

You can add to this definition of trading high to players who are at the end of their really good playing days like the KG Pierce Nets trade Horford may fall into this category if not now soon). Players you think are on the verge of plateauing without much more inprovement (Smart), or career year players like Morris who aren’t really young players anymore.

The thing is with Morris is what are you getting back for him?  Because he doesn’t make a whole lot for salary matching purposes, and he is in the last year of his contract you might not get much back.  He could possible be worth more if we re-signed him in the offseason to a deal he is worth and, and a team would have more years of control.

You can argue Smart will never be worth more than now if at some point he goes back to the bench.  Even Rozier with last year’s playoffs still fresh in teams minds and the hope of the future his stock is still decent right now despite his up and down play.

Ainge may want to save these assets for now to if he thinks he has a shot at Davis.

The thing about Ainge is he is pretty creative when it comes to trades with most of them none of us had thought of.  I just tried this trade in the the NBA trade machine and it worked Morris, Rozier, Smart, and Bird for Beal.  Maybe put in the Kings pick if we need to or make it a 3 team deal, and that would be a fun team to watch Irving, Beal, Hayward, Tatum, Horford as a starting 5.  I’m going off on a tangent so I’ll stop there. Ha

Re: The Concept of Trading High and Why Fans Obviously Hate It
« Reply #16 on: January 16, 2019, 12:27:15 PM »

Offline Moranis

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I've argued before that a Morris for Kaminsky trade seemingly makes a lot of sense for both the Celtics and Hornets.  That is the type of trade I would be looking at. 
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Re: The Concept of Trading High and Why Fans Obviously Hate It
« Reply #17 on: January 16, 2019, 12:49:55 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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I've argued before that a Morris for Kaminsky trade seemingly makes a lot of sense for both the Celtics and Hornets.  That is the type of trade I would be looking at.

Curious on why Kaminsky? I have my doubts he will be in the NBA more than another year or two. For a stretch 4 or 5 he is shooting pretty average (35% from 3). Doesn't seem to be good at defense or rebounding. I would agree he has not really been put in a great position to succeed, but I am just not sure how good he could even be.

Re: The Concept of Trading High and Why Fans Obviously Hate It
« Reply #18 on: January 16, 2019, 01:03:01 PM »

Offline tazzmaniac

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I'm all for opening things up by prematurely ditching those who won't be around next year. Morris and Theis, and Rozier.

Agree that Morris is a ball stopper. He would be a chucker if he wasn't on a contract year hot streak.

I was high on Rozier, but his head just isn't here and won't be this season. Good player. Not the right person.

I was also high on Theis preinjury. He lost his quicks and hops.  Sucks.

Smart, though, is a critical piece locked in for 3 more seasons. If he should be traded, it should be for a marquee player.

But to the point... selling high... requires both a buyer who is pretty flush, and a replacement.
I get that people see Smart as a critical piece.  This is something I sort of covered in my podcast.  Several years ago that I advocated trading Rondo for an elite shooter. It was met with major hostility, because of how essential Rondo was to our offense. It ran through Rondo, of course. But I had in mind that if you replaced Rondo with an elite shooter, you'd be able to have the ball run through Pierce and the new guy combined with Ray would be lethal at spreading the floor (essentially pace and space before we had a name for it). It would have COMPLETELY changed the dynamic of the team, but it wouldn't have necessarily made our offense worse.

I feel similarly about trading Smart. He's a huge intangibles guy. Crucial to our defense. But I mean, if you move him in a big picture trade that gets Jaylen consistent minutes and he starts getting comfortable - does it become a win? If you move Smart in a package to bring in a high impact player like Beal or Gasol, it completely changes the dynamic of the team - but do the plusses end up outweighing the minuses?

Just think it's worth considering. As of today, Smart is available to be traded. It opens up our possibilities. Not saying we should do anything, but we have options.
Beal and Gasol are totally different.  Gasol isn't high impact and he's well on the downside of his career.  Smart is more impactful to me than Gasol especially against GSW.  Including Smart in a trade for Beal is a no-brainer if it would be required.  However it is much more likely Brown would be included and Smart would go back to his role coming off the bench. 

Re: The Concept of Trading High and Why Fans Obviously Hate It
« Reply #19 on: January 16, 2019, 01:10:51 PM »

Offline Walker Wiggle

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The problem with the OP's rationale for trading players like Morris and Smart is the signal it sends to the remainder of the organization. You've got a team trying to coalesce and unify itself, and get ready for a playoff run. In the midst of that you would be trading away two of the most important players on the team in terms of toughness and accountability. It would basically be a signal to the locker room that the organization has given up on the current season, and invitation to the remaining players to play selfishly rather than team ball. This would be in exchange for... maybe a couple of late firsts, at best?

Good fantasy basketball strategy, though.

Re: The Concept of Trading High and Why Fans Obviously Hate It
« Reply #20 on: January 16, 2019, 01:17:22 PM »

Offline tazzmaniac

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Fans don't hate trading high.  Fans just have differences of opinions on player values.  Do you think Doncic is the best player in the draft with a good chance of becoming a top level star?  Do you think Brown is likely to be a multi-year all-star?  How you answer those questions determines whether trading Brown for Doncic would be trading high. 

Re: The Concept of Trading High and Why Fans Obviously Hate It
« Reply #21 on: January 16, 2019, 01:41:43 PM »

Offline Moranis

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I've argued before that a Morris for Kaminsky trade seemingly makes a lot of sense for both the Celtics and Hornets.  That is the type of trade I would be looking at.

Curious on why Kaminsky? I have my doubts he will be in the NBA more than another year or two. For a stretch 4 or 5 he is shooting pretty average (35% from 3). Doesn't seem to be good at defense or rebounding. I would agree he has not really been put in a great position to succeed, but I am just not sure how good he could even be.
I also don't know how good he could be, but he makes just enough that a straight up trade works.  He wouldn't drop Boston below the tax, but they would be close enough that if they cleared Bird they would be.   I just think he could flourish in the KO type role off the bench for this team. 
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Re: The Concept of Trading High and Why Fans Obviously Hate It
« Reply #22 on: January 16, 2019, 02:21:33 PM »

Offline ozgod

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The thing is, Danny Ainge is an emotionless robot.

Bingo. That's all you needed to write. He's Bill Belichick.

I think I'm like a lot of people here. If we could get value for Morris, I'd trade him. Even with his Bird rights, though, I think it's hard to get a lot for him. He's going to cost a lot next year.

I'd have a much harder time trading Smart, though. First, I think he fits this team in a unique way. He'd have a hard time filling his role somewhere else, and I don't think other teams would value him as highly. Second, forget for a minute what he's worth elsewhere; he's the heart and soul of this team. He's the one guy that defines "intangibles" for us.

And finally, when we drafted him, I bought each of my kids Marcus Smart shirts, and I'll be [dang]ed if I'm getting them new ones. Those things are expensive.

Mike

Agree. As fans it's totally understandable that as a player's value rises because he's playing well, the desire to hang on to him increases. But when you're managing assets (whether it's players, stocks etc) you always want to sell high and buy low, not the opposite. As long as it's all done with the overriding objective of putting together a complimentary team that synergizes well to win a championship.

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Re: The Concept of Trading High and Why Fans Obviously Hate It
« Reply #23 on: January 16, 2019, 02:28:22 PM »

Offline SHAQATTACK

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I've argued before that a Morris for Kaminsky trade seemingly makes a lot of sense for both the Celtics and Hornets.  That is the type of trade I would be looking at.

Frank an't worth a pack of peanuts , he ll be in Japan soon enough

Re: The Concept of Trading High and Why Fans Obviously Hate It
« Reply #24 on: January 16, 2019, 02:38:56 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Does anybody else think it's really unlikely that Jaylen Brown for the-pick-that-became-Luka was ever a realistic possibility, even after the playoffs last year?

Jaylen had a nice playoff run, but I'm not sure he was ever valued quite that highly.
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Re: The Concept of Trading High and Why Fans Obviously Hate It
« Reply #25 on: January 16, 2019, 02:45:29 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Does anybody else think it's really unlikely that Jaylen Brown for the-pick-that-became-Luka was ever a realistic possibility, even after the playoffs last year?

Jaylen had a nice playoff run, but I'm not sure he was ever valued quite that highly.

I think if we offered him to the Kings for the pick they used to take Bagley they certainly would have considered it. He was 21 with some more cheap control and showed a lot of improvement. The fact that they badly want to be competitive and don't own their pick would have been further influence. Plus Hield certainly didn't look as good last year and they seemed short on wing talent.

Re: The Concept of Trading High and Why Fans Obviously Hate It
« Reply #26 on: January 16, 2019, 02:50:24 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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I'm just not convinced that a team in a position to draft high would've looked at Brown and found him as exciting (e.g. potential franchise talent) as the relative unknown of a college or overseas youngster. 

Brown looked good in the post-season but I don't think he's really hasn't ever looked like a guy who could become a lead playmaker or scoring option for a good or even decent team.  More of a high level two-way complimentary player.
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Re: The Concept of Trading High and Why Fans Obviously Hate It
« Reply #27 on: January 16, 2019, 02:54:05 PM »

Offline Big333223

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I wouldnt' mind selling high on Morris, though I'm a bit skeptical that he would provide a super high return. 

Are you gonna get a 1st round pick for half a season of Morris?

Is a late 1st rounder worth it to trade away the guy who has been top 3 on the team this year in terms of consistency and offensive production?  I mean, you're basically signalling that you don't see the team competing for anything meaningful this season.


As for Smart, I could see the right team being willing to pay a bit more value for him, given what he's shown during his time on the Celtics.


But again, seeing as Smart is apparently the emotional leader on the team -- and the longest-tenured Celtic -- is it really worth it?

To me, Smart is everything that's currently right about the Celtics.  We want the team to take on more of his personality and approach, not ship him out.

With Smart I don't really think you have the same phenomenon of "trade this guy while his shooting is hot, he won't be worth nearly so much later."

Smart is what he is.  Yeah, he's been on a bit of a hot streak from three lately and his percentages are up.  Before the end of the season I'm sure his 3P% will be back down near 28-30%.

I don't care -- that's who he's been in the past and he's been really important in pretty much all of the Celts' most impressive victories over the last few years.

It's not like he's gonna decline due to age anytime soon or something like that.

All of this.

I'll add that what this team needs (aside from getting everyone on the same page mentally), is to consolidate the talent they have now. Any deal sending out valuable players (like Morris or Smart or, yes still, Brown) for future draft assets doesn't make sense to me.

If we're packaging some B and B- players to get an A player, then sure. But if we're dumping people who are contributing right now for assets to be conveyed some day in the future, I'm not for it. Not while I still think this team has championship-caliber talent.
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Re: The Concept of Trading High and Why Fans Obviously Hate It
« Reply #28 on: January 16, 2019, 02:57:24 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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The problem with the OP's rationale for trading players like Morris and Smart is the signal it sends to the remainder of the organization. You've got a team trying to coalesce and unify itself, and get ready for a playoff run. In the midst of that you would be trading away two of the most important players on the team in terms of toughness and accountability. It would basically be a signal to the locker room that the organization has given up on the current season, and invitation to the remaining players to play selfishly rather than team ball. This would be in exchange for... maybe a couple of late firsts, at best?

Good fantasy basketball strategy, though.
on the flip side, a frustrated player like brown would probably be glad to get a boost in role and minutes. 

Re: The Concept of Trading High and Why Fans Obviously Hate It
« Reply #29 on: January 16, 2019, 02:59:50 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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Fans don't hate trading high.  Fans just have differences of opinions on player values.  Do you think Doncic is the best player in the draft with a good chance of becoming a top level star?  Do you think Brown is likely to be a multi-year all-star?  How you answer those questions determines whether trading Brown for Doncic would be trading high.
bill Simmons going from reacting violently to the idea of trading brown for a top 5 pick in a good draft - to wanting to dump brown for the #17 pick in a bad draft... is still a great summary of how fans react to trading a player when their stock is high vs when their stock is low. 

If fans had it their way, they’d give up rozier for a late 2nd round pick right now.