Are we one good bench piece away from title contention?

[Moranis]

You have a fair point in the warriors series, but the heat spurs thing is a really poor example of what you are arguing. The heat had 2 superstars at that point even if wade was slipping. Bosh was also a parental all star. Older Duncan, young Leonard and Parker were just not on that same top level talent....

Also your narrative is pretty hilarious when you argue wade missing games was sign of him slipping but Duncan missing games was an argument he would have done better if he played more games despite the fact he was 5 years older than wade. Lol

The difference between Duncan and Wade is that Duncan went back to being an All League performing that received MVP votes, while Wade did not.  A season where a player doesn't receive league recognition because of injuries is an anomaly if he goes back to receiving that recognition when he gets healthy the next year.  When the player never again receives recognition it isn't an anomaly, it is a sign of the times.  Parker was a top 10 player that season (2nd Team All League) and when healthy Duncan was a top 10 to 15 player (top 5 the prior season and top 15 the season after).  Not as good as James, who was the best player in the sport, but also no where near as crappy as you guys want to make it seem.  Parker, in particular, never got the respect he deserved.  He was an absolutely fantastic player during his prime. 

Bosh made an All League team one time in his career (07 - 2nd Team).  He was a good solid player, but he wasn't a top 15 player and certainly wasn't an uber elite guy (he had a 7th and 12th place finish in MVP voting along with that 1 2nd Team).  In Miami, Bosh didn't make an All League Team or receive any MVP votes.  He was a very solid 3rd player, but that is exactly what he was, a  3rd player.  The All League teams are far more indicative of a player's ability than the all star game, which is as much a popularity contest as anything else. 

[Sophomore]

No, unless that bench piece is Gobert. Without seriously altering the roster, this team is a Tatum/Brown leap away from being perennial title contenders. With their continuous improvement, that leap can occur sooner rather than later.

The Bucks and Sixers are too advanced in their development for the C's to overcome this season, but that gap will close due to roster management. The Bledsoe extension and Brogdon non-extension and the Shamet/1st for Harris trades were short-sighted moves.

Patience is key.

The 76ers?What in the world have they shown to be a tier above us? I would grant they match up well against us, but aside from that... they have three more losses and now are without two starters for a couple of weeks. Probably the 5th or 6th seed.

I think we have a reasonable shot at getting someone else to take them out for us. Hoping for that!

[celticsclay]

You have a fair point in the warriors series, but the heat spurs thing is a really poor example of what you are arguing. The heat had 2 superstars at that point even if wade was slipping. Bosh was also a parental all star. Older Duncan, young Leonard and Parker were just not on that same top level talent....

Also your narrative is pretty hilarious when you argue wade missing games was sign of him slipping but Duncan missing games was an argument he would have done better if he played more games despite the fact he was 5 years older than wade. Lol

The difference between Duncan and Wade is that Duncan went back to being an All League performing that received MVP votes, while Wade did not. A season where a player doesn't receive league recognition because of injuries is an anomaly if he goes back to receiving that recognition when he gets healthy the next year.  When the player never again receives recognition it isn't an anomaly, it is a sign of the times.  Parker was a top 10 player that season (2nd Team All League) and when healthy Duncan was a top 10 to 15 player (top 5 the prior season and top 15 the season after).  Not as good as James, who was the best player in the sport, but also no where near as crappy as you guys want to make it seem.  Parker, in particular, never got the respect he deserved.  He was an absolutely fantastic player during his prime. 

Bosh made an All League team one time in his career (07 - 2nd Team).  He was a good solid player, but he wasn't a top 15 player and certainly wasn't an uber elite guy (he had a 7th and 12th place finish in MVP voting along with that 1 2nd Team).  In Miami, Bosh didn't make an All League Team or receive any MVP votes.  He was a very solid 3rd player, but that is exactly what he was, a  3rd player.  The All League teams are far more indicative of a player's ability than the all star game, which is as much a popularity contest as anything else.

We are talking about the 2014 NBA Finals that the Spurs beat the Heat in right. Duncan was 37 at that point. He made one all-nba third team after that in a season he averaged 14 points and 9 rebounds. He then averaged 8 and 7 and was out of the league after that. The season after this Wade averaged 21.5, 5 assists on 47% shooting made the all-star game, but doesn't happen to make an all-nba team cause the league was loaded with guards in Paul, Curry, Harden, Westbrook, Klay and Irving, so Duncan was a higher level performer? Come on that is gibberish.

[mmmmm]

No.

They're already a fringe title contender (offense and defense that are top 5 in the league, top 5 net rating). One random starter/high level bench piece piece doesn't change that imho.

To ascend from that fringe contender zone they go from having 3 top 25 guys to at least 1 top 10 guy. Honestly if this year's Bucks team wasn't so good they'd probably not be "fringe", but the Bucks are a 07-08 Celtics, second/third year Miami LeBron, a 15-16 GSW level, etc. team.

Those sort of teams get beat of course, but its tough!

Agree with this take. We already are a contender, just not a strong one, and another bench piece at best shuffles us closer to the top of that crowded mix.

Here's my contender tiers, teams in no particular order:

Tier 1
Bucks

Tier 2
Lakers
Clippers

Tier 3
Us
Rockets
Nuggets
Raptors
Heat
Sixers
Maybe Pacers with Oladipo back

There's no realistic bench piece that brings us up into the LA tier let alone alongside Milwaukee. Barring major developments we peak at 4th best chance.

I totally concur with this take.

To me a "contender" means you have a realistic chance of making it to the Conference Finals.   That's it.  That doesn't mean you are a favorite to come out or to win the title.  But you don't need a weird miracle to make it to the CF.   And if you can make it to the CF, then you are a contender for the title because the title almost always comes down to who is healthiest out of the last 4 teams.

I definitely don't see us as a 'favorite'.  But if our top 7 players are healthy all the way through, we are definitely a contender.   

And as ff points out, no bench player is going to make our top 7's chances any better.

[Hoopvortex]

I believe it's more about health.  If we are 100%, I think we can compete with anyone this year.

As the old NBA cliché goes, ‘The greatest ability is availability.’

No.

They're already a fringe title contender (offense and defense that are top 5 in the league, top 5 net rating). One random starter/high level bench piece piece doesn't change that imho.

To ascend from that fringe contender zone they go from having 3 top 25 guys to at least 1 top 10 guy. Honestly if this year's Bucks team wasn't so good they'd probably not be "fringe", but the Bucks are a 07-08 Celtics, second/third year Miami LeBron, a 15-16 GSW level, etc. team.

Those sort of teams get beat of course, but its tough!

Agree with this take. We already are a contender, just not a strong one, and another bench piece at best shuffles us closer to the top of that crowded mix.

Here's my contender tiers, teams in no particular order:

Tier 1
Bucks

Tier 2
Lakers
Clippers

Tier 3
Us
Rockets
Nuggets
Raptors
Heat
Sixers
Maybe Pacers with Oladipo back

There's no realistic bench piece that brings us up into the LA tier let alone alongside Milwaukee. Barring major developments we peak at 4th best chance.

I don’t have any particular quibble with your tiers, but you’ve certainly left out Utah, which is currently second in the West, and most importantly Dallas, which has a point differential equal to Boston‘s.

I’d recommend looking at Point Differential. Historically it’s been a good predictor of playoff success.

Here are the current standings for the top teams in the league by Point Differential:

Milwaukee   12.7
LA Lakers   7.8
Boston    7.1
Dallas   7.1
LA Clippers   6.2
Toronto    6.0
Utah    5.3
Houston   4.4
Miami    3.7
Philadelphia    3.3
Denver    3.3
Indiana    3.0


By this measure, Milwaukee is indeed in a tier by itself. On the other hand, Boston and that interloper Dallas are solidly in the second tier.

If Boston can sustain the defensive intensity that we’ve seen in the last two games, I’d bet that that is exactly where Boston belongs.

The arguments in this thread that you need to have top players to win a championship are good ones. As Red Auerbach once said, “You’ve got to have the horses.” Understood.

Here’s my theory: the more a team relies on its defense, the more importance its depth is; and the more that it relies on its offense, the more important its star power is. The 2012 Mavericks, the 2004 Pistons, and the 2001 Philadelphia 76ers are examples of teams whose defense was better than their offense.

[PhoSita]

No.

They're already a fringe title contender (offense and defense that are top 5 in the league, top 5 net rating). One random starter/high level bench piece piece doesn't change that imho.

To ascend from that fringe contender zone they go from having 3 top 25 guys to at least 1 top 10 guy. Honestly if this year's Bucks team wasn't so good they'd probably not be "fringe", but the Bucks are a 07-08 Celtics, second/third year Miami LeBron, a 15-16 GSW level, etc. team.

Those sort of teams get beat of course, but its tough!

Agree with this take. We already are a contender, just not a strong one, and another bench piece at best shuffles us closer to the top of that crowded mix.

Here's my contender tiers, teams in no particular order:

Tier 1
Bucks

Tier 2
Lakers
Clippers

Tier 3
Us
Rockets
Nuggets
Raptors
Heat
Sixers
Maybe Pacers with Oladipo back

There's no realistic bench piece that brings us up into the LA tier let alone alongside Milwaukee. Barring major developments we peak at 4th best chance.

I have to be honest, I know the Bucks are statistically monstrous and Giannis is amazing.

Even so, I'm at the point with Coach Bud that I will believe it when I see it as far as his teams succeeding in the playoffs to the extent you'd expect based on regular season performance.


That's not to say Coach Bud is bad, just that I think he has a very effective system for the regular season but that doesn't seem to be quite as hard for opponents to solve in the playoffs.

[Rosco917]

Eight is enough, lol.  The problem is not the playoff depth but the top 3 players aren’t good enough to win a championship.

This^
The Celtics are too much of a single demential team. They play one way, if that doesn't work it's over.

[wiley]

disagree that we are not a contender.  What we are is a superstar-less contender, but still a contender.

Our worst matchup IMO would come against a healthy Clippers team.  Second worst matchup against Lakers.  The East is conquerable. 

What is needed?  Some good luck with health.  Possibly some bad luck with health from another team.

I would say there are:
1. Title favorite type teams:  Clippers, Lakers, Bucks
2. Contenders:  C's, Jazz, Rockets, Sixers, Raptors, Heat
3. Wishful contenders:  Nuggets, Pacers

The Contender category needs a couple things to fall their way...For Celtics, it would be Bucks and Sixers beating each other to a pulp in a prior round, while enjoying good health.
Then in Finals, The Clippers/Lakers have some issues, partly also due to having beaten each other to a pulp.  Or just some bad luck with a key player (if it's a superstar then we sort of become favorites).

[CFAN38]

I have posted this in other threads


I look at the Cs current roster as having 6 every game playoff players

Walker
Brown
Tatum
Hayward
Smart
Theis

these 6 players can play in every playoff game no matter the match up and have the talent to warrant playing in every game. After that DA needs to go to work to get Stevens a more complete bench.

Kanter, has been playing great but in a 7 game series vs the bucks his ability to defend a switch plays him off the court

Wannamaker, is sold but doesn't move the needle to help you win.

R Williams, needs to get healthy and prove that he can make the smart play when it matters

G Williams, needs to hit open shots, if in the future he can become a + 30% 3pt shooter he could be a key contributor off the bench

S Ojeleye , needs to hit open shots and is best as a 9th man in the rotation as a Defensive specialist




Looking at this list I see the teams needs as the following,

1. Bench scoring ( at this point Cs versatility should allow this player to be from any position)
2. serviceable back up big man ( if healthy R Williams and Kanter should be able to cover this need)

[td450]

Eight is enough, lol.  The problem is not the playoff depth but the top 3 players aren’t good enough to win a championship.

This^
The Celtics are too much of a single demential team. They play one way, if that doesn't work it's over.

We are a 4 dimensional team by my count. We will live and die with our top 4, not our top 3. And we've seen that Walker can be counted on to be Walker.

Whether we have a chance or not will almost completely depend on our 3 wings and where they are at when we hit the playoffs. It is not unreasonable to hope that all three could take it up a full level by then. Tatum is starting to put it together. Brown has always improved in-season. Hayward can be more consistent, and should be. And we've had an unusual number of nagging minor injuries.

I'm not sure the other top tier teams have as much room to improve(although we can expect the Clippers to be top tier, despite their current record).

I think we have a chance mostly because Tatum and Brown, while not top tier superstars, have the raw talent necessary, and they have pretty consistently been able to perform against superstars.

Usually the problem is that Kawhi Leonard or LeBron or Giannis level players just crush lesser players once the playoffs start. I'm hopeful our young wings will hold up under pressure. They play hard, they aren't afraid and they play intense defense. That gives us a chance.

[mmmmm]

G Williams, needs to hit open shots, if in the future he can become a + 30% 3pt shooter he could be a key contributor off the bench

Just FWIW:  Ever since Grant _finally_ hit his first 3PT shot (Dec 9th), getting the monkey off his back, he has shot 39.3% on threes.

So his current season average of 20.3% is perhaps a bit misleading and not really representative of his abilities as a shooter.

[Who]

We are one good starter away from title contention (at center).

[PhoSita]

We are one good starter away from title contention (at center).

How are we defining "good starter"?

Because Daniel Theis has shown that he fits really well with the other starters (i.e. the team's core offensive players), can hold his own on defense even on switches, spaces the floor, and isn't an offensive liability so long as he's not expected to create for himself or others.

Short of adding a very expensive or talented two way player at the 5, I'm not sure what sort of starting caliber player you would find who would not take away as much as they add.

[Fafnir]

G Williams, needs to hit open shots, if in the future he can become a + 30% 3pt shooter he could be a key contributor off the bench

Just FWIW:  Ever since Grant _finally_ hit his first 3PT shot (Dec 9th), getting the monkey off his back, he has shot 39.3% on threes.

So his current season average of 20.3% is perhaps a bit misleading and not really representative of his abilities as a shooter.

An addendum to this, at his current volume of shots we should have a decent sample to determine his shooting ability in approximately 4 more years. 

[fairweatherfan]

I don’t have any particular quibble with your tiers, but you’ve certainly left out Utah, which is currently second in the West, and most importantly Dallas, which has a point differential equal to Boston‘s.

That was on purpose, I don't really believe in Utah (who sputters out every playoffs and doesn't appear much different this year) or Dallas (too young/inexperienced/erratic). I think any of my Tier 3 teams winning would be surprising but either the Jazz or Mavs winning would be shocking.

I could be wrong though, and am pretty often.