Author Topic: Was Terry Rozier a top-20 guard last season?  (Read 2439 times)

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Was Terry Rozier a top-20 guard last season?
« on: June 18, 2018, 12:38:55 AM »

Offline saltlover

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We all largely agree that Terry Rozier had a good season last year, but how good is up to debate.  Looking at some of his advanced gestalt stats, like VORP, BPM, and Win Shares paints the picture of a player who had a overall positive impact, but how good is a 2.0 VORP relative to his peers?  Using basketball-reference’s player season finder, we can help answer these questions.

I looked at VORP, BPM, Win shares, and WS/48 for all players classified as only guards.  This means players who are listed as PG, SG, or both, but who are not also listed as SF.  This will mean we get virtually every PG outside Ben Simmons, combo guards (players like Harden and McCollum) and pure SGs like Redick, but we exclude wings like Jimmy Butler.  This seems like the correct peer group to compare Rozier against.  Since VORP and Win Shares are counting stats, I did not adjust for minutes played.  For BPM and WS/48 I required a minimum of 1000 minutes played (which is a really low threshold in my mind, but I didn’t want to be accused of excluding too many players — 103 players qualify at this level).

Here’s how he stacks up:

VORP: 18th
Win Shares: 19th
BPM: 15th
WA/48: 15th

These are full season numbers.  Rozier played even better towards the end of the season and into the playoffs.  His playoff BPM of 4.5 would have been 9th overall for the full season.  Obviously the sample is smaller as he played 1/3 of the minutes and 1/4 of the games, but it was also against a higher level of competition.

To be honest, I was quite surprised by these numbers.  I was expecting to see him around the 30 range, making him a fringe starter.  But to be inside the top 20 for all of them, and 15th in the rate stats, indicates that he’s a legit starting-caliber guard in the league.  Additionally, every player ahead of him is older.  With continued growth to his game (which seems possible if you merely project out a full season at the same level of production as his playoff stats) even calling  him a fringe All-Star wouldn’t be hyperbole.  (His playoff BPM of 4.5 was between Oladipo’s 4.9 and Kemba Walker’s 3.2).

So was Terry a top-20 guard last season?  Could he be this year?  Could he be in the top 10-15 within the next two seasons?  Is he primed for an Oladip-level jump soon?  Again, his playoff numbers projected to a full season are right in line with Oladipo’s this year, and his regular season numbers are also in line with VO’s Year 3 numbers.

And if he really is a top-20 guard, heading on his way to the 10-15 range, what do you do with him?  I’ve been in the camp that the absolute least I’d accept in draft night trade is #12 straight up, but having looked at this, I think even that is off, and I doubt I’d be okay with anything less than #9 straight up.  And if you could get him to take the same money you’re willing to pay Smart, at this point I would choose Terry over Marcus, which is a statement I’m really surprised to type.

Late night food for thought.

(P.S. I know advanced stats are not the end-all, but he also clearly passed the eye test on the court, and the team performed tremendously well with him in a major role, so the advanced stats are simply another confirmation, and not a statistic devoid of context.)
« Last Edit: June 18, 2018, 12:46:02 AM by saltlover »

Re: Was Terry Rozier a top-20 guard last season?
« Reply #1 on: June 18, 2018, 12:49:50 AM »

Offline Ilikesports17

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I don't think he was a top 20 guard.

He surpassed all my expectations this year but he's still a streaky shooter and a bad defender who isn't someone I'm comfortable with running my offense.

I'm not familiar with the draft this year outside the top few guys so I can't put a pick # I'd trade for him.

I'd much rather keep Marcus because with Irving, Tatum and Hayward on the team I think smarts defense is more crucial than Roziers scoring
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Re: Was Terry Rozier a top-20 guard last season?
« Reply #2 on: June 18, 2018, 12:52:59 AM »

Offline Beat LA

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We all largely agree that Terry Rozier had a good season last year, but how good is up to debate.  Looking at some of his advanced gestalt stats, like VORP, BPM, and Win Shares paints the picture of a player who had a overall positive impact, but how good is a 2.0 VORP relative to his peers?  Using basketball-reference’s player season finder, we can help answer these questions.

I looked at VORP, BPM, Win shares, and WS/48 for all players classified as only guards.  This means players who are listed as PG, SG, or both, but who are not also listed as SF.  This will mean we get virtually every PG outside Ben Simmons, combo guards (players like Harden and McCollum) and pure SGs like Redick, but we exclude wings like Jimmy Butler.  This seems like the correct peer group to compare Rozier against.  Since VORP and Win Shares are counting stats, I did not adjust for minutes played.  For BPM and WS/48 I required a minimum of 1000 minutes played (which is a really low threshold in my mind, but I didn’t want to be accused of excluding too many players — 103 players qualify at this level).

Here’s how he stacks up:

VORP: 18th
Win Shares: 19th
BPM: 15th
WA/48: 15th

These are full season numbers.  Rozier played even better towards the end of the season and into the playoffs.  His playoff BPM of 4.5 would have been 9th overall for the full season.  Obviously the sample is smaller as he played 1/3 of the minutes and 1/4 of the games, but it was also against a higher level of competition.

To be honest, I was quite surprised by these numbers.  I was expecting to see him around the 30 range, making him a fringe starter.  But to be inside the top 20 for all of them, and 15th in the rate stats, indicates that he’s a legit starting-caliber guard in the league.  Additionally, every player ahead of him is older.  With continued growth to his game (which seems possible if you merely project out a full season at the same level of production as his playoff stats) even calling  him a fringe All-Star wouldn’t be hyperbole.  (His playoff BPM of 4.5 was between Oladipo’s 4.9 and Kemba Walker’s 3.2).

So was Terry a top-20 guard last season?  Could he be this year?  Could he be in the top 10-15 within the next two seasons?  Is he primed for an Oladip-level jump soon?  Again, his playoff numbers projected to a full season are right in line with Oladipo’s this year, and his regular season numbers are also in line with VO’s Year 3 numbers.

And if he really is a top-20 guard, heading on his way to the 10-15 range, what do you do with him?  I’ve been in the camp that the absolute least I’d accept in draft night trade is #12 straight up, but having looked at this, I think even that is off, and I doubt I’d be okay with anything less than #9 straight up.  And if you could get him to take the same money you’re willing to pay Smart, at this point I would choose Terry over Marcus, which is a statement I’m really surprised to type.

Late night food for thought.

In fairness to this analysis, I think that it would be best to really only examine the numbers from the time in which Rozier took over from Kyrie until the end of Game 7, given that that is the best sample size of the former's production in a starting role and, thus, with more minutes, obviously, would you not agree?

Now in terms of as to what the Celtics should do with him, man, it's tough, as I've come to be a fan of Rozier's, but with Kyrie coming back, Terry's value, much like that of Perk and Big Baby following Boston's elimination by the Magic in 2009, will never be higher, so my gut tells me to strike while the iron is hot and move him to Minnesota for Justin Patton, but Irving's Carl Pavano-like durability ::) certainly gives me pause insofar as such a possible move is concerned.

Perhaps it's best to wait until after the draft to complete said transaction, anyway, as by that time we'll at least know as to whether or not we have someone who could, at least theoretically, fill Smart's and Rozier's shoes, respectively #HelloRawleAlkins, lol ;D.

If we're trading him on draft night, however, who would you target and why? That's probably as to where we should start, in all honesty.

Re: Was Terry Rozier a top-20 guard last season?
« Reply #3 on: June 18, 2018, 12:59:48 AM »

Offline saltlover

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We all largely agree that Terry Rozier had a good season last year, but how good is up to debate.  Looking at some of his advanced gestalt stats, like VORP, BPM, and Win Shares paints the picture of a player who had a overall positive impact, but how good is a 2.0 VORP relative to his peers?  Using basketball-reference’s player season finder, we can help answer these questions.

I looked at VORP, BPM, Win shares, and WS/48 for all players classified as only guards.  This means players who are listed as PG, SG, or both, but who are not also listed as SF.  This will mean we get virtually every PG outside Ben Simmons, combo guards (players like Harden and McCollum) and pure SGs like Redick, but we exclude wings like Jimmy Butler.  This seems like the correct peer group to compare Rozier against.  Since VORP and Win Shares are counting stats, I did not adjust for minutes played.  For BPM and WS/48 I required a minimum of 1000 minutes played (which is a really low threshold in my mind, but I didn’t want to be accused of excluding too many players — 103 players qualify at this level).

Here’s how he stacks up:

VORP: 18th
Win Shares: 19th
BPM: 15th
WA/48: 15th

These are full season numbers.  Rozier played even better towards the end of the season and into the playoffs.  His playoff BPM of 4.5 would have been 9th overall for the full season.  Obviously the sample is smaller as he played 1/3 of the minutes and 1/4 of the games, but it was also against a higher level of competition.

To be honest, I was quite surprised by these numbers.  I was expecting to see him around the 30 range, making him a fringe starter.  But to be inside the top 20 for all of them, and 15th in the rate stats, indicates that he’s a legit starting-caliber guard in the league.  Additionally, every player ahead of him is older.  With continued growth to his game (which seems possible if you merely project out a full season at the same level of production as his playoff stats) even calling  him a fringe All-Star wouldn’t be hyperbole.  (His playoff BPM of 4.5 was between Oladipo’s 4.9 and Kemba Walker’s 3.2).

So was Terry a top-20 guard last season?  Could he be this year?  Could he be in the top 10-15 within the next two seasons?  Is he primed for an Oladip-level jump soon?  Again, his playoff numbers projected to a full season are right in line with Oladipo’s this year, and his regular season numbers are also in line with VO’s Year 3 numbers.

And if he really is a top-20 guard, heading on his way to the 10-15 range, what do you do with him?  I’ve been in the camp that the absolute least I’d accept in draft night trade is #12 straight up, but having looked at this, I think even that is off, and I doubt I’d be okay with anything less than #9 straight up.  And if you could get him to take the same money you’re willing to pay Smart, at this point I would choose Terry over Marcus, which is a statement I’m really surprised to type.

Late night food for thought.

In fairness to this analysis, I think that it would be best to really only examine the numbers from the time in which Rozier took over from Kyrie until the end of Game 7, given that that is the best sample size of the former's production in a starting role and, thus, with more minutes, obviously, would you not agree?

Now in terms of as to what the Celtics should do with him, man, it's tough, as I've come to be a fan of Rozier's, but with Kyrie coming back, Terry's value, much like that of Perk and Big Baby following Boston's elimination by the Magic in 2009, will never be higher, so my gut tells me to strike while the iron is hot and move him to Minnesota for Justin Patton, but Irving's Carl Pavano-like durability ::) certainly gives me pause insofar as such a possible move is concerned.

Perhaps it's best to wait until after the draft to complete said transaction, anyway, as by that time we'll at least know as to whether or not we have someone who could, at least theoretically, fill Smart's and Rozier's shoes, respectively #HelloRawleAlkins, lol ;D.

If we're trading him on draft night, however, who would you target and why? That's probably as to where we should start, in all honesty.

If you look at Terry only from his 1st start in late January through the playoffs, he’d grade out higher.  Unfortunately I don’t have a way to do that and to also compare it to other players.  But his full season numbers are worse than the roughly 50 game sample you’re asking about.

Re: Was Terry Rozier a top-20 guard last season?
« Reply #4 on: June 18, 2018, 01:05:03 AM »

Offline saltlover

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I don't think he was a top 20 guard.

He surpassed all my expectations this year but he's still a streaky shooter and a bad defender who isn't someone I'm comfortable with running my offense.

I'm not familiar with the draft this year outside the top few guys so I can't put a pick # I'd trade for him.

I'd much rather keep Marcus because with Irving, Tatum and Hayward on the team I think smarts defense is more crucial than Roziers scoring

There are a lot of questions I have about this post, but the one that really jumps out at me is why aren’t you comfortable with Rozier running an offense?  I thought he showed terrific decision-making, especially given the situation he was thrown into.  A 5:1 assist-to-turnover ratio for a PG in a deep playoff run is really quite outstanding.

Re: Was Terry Rozier a top-20 guard last season?
« Reply #5 on: June 18, 2018, 01:19:25 AM »

Offline droopdog7

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I don't think he was a top 20 guard.

He surpassed all my expectations this year but he's still a streaky shooter and a bad defender who isn't someone I'm comfortable with running my offense.

I'm not familiar with the draft this year outside the top few guys so I can't put a pick # I'd trade for him.

I'd much rather keep Marcus because with Irving, Tatum and Hayward on the team I think smarts defense is more crucial than Roziers scoring

There are a lot of questions I have about this post, but the one that really jumps out at me is why aren’t you comfortable with Rozier running an offense?  I thought he showed terrific decision-making, especially given the situation he was thrown into.  A 5:1 assist-to-turnover ratio for a PG in a deep playoff run is really quite outstanding.
I’m with sports17.  I think rozier played WAY over his head in the playoffs.  He’s not even a starter in my eyes.  Streaky backup who’ll make you pull your hair out at times.

I don’t want him running my team either, as that’s his biggest weakness.  He really is a step slow on recognizing even basic offensive plays.  Doesn’t/can’t make the simple play, which is frustrating. 

Re: Was Terry Rozier a top-20 guard last season?
« Reply #6 on: June 18, 2018, 01:21:20 AM »

Offline Beat LA

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I don't think he was a top 20 guard.

He surpassed all my expectations this year but he's still a streaky shooter and a bad defender who isn't someone I'm comfortable with running my offense.

I'm not familiar with the draft this year outside the top few guys so I can't put a pick # I'd trade for him.

I'd much rather keep Marcus because with Irving, Tatum and Hayward on the team I think smarts defense is more crucial than Roziers scoring

There are a lot of questions I have about this post, but the one that really jumps out at me is why aren’t you comfortable with Rozier running an offense?  I thought he showed terrific decision-making, especially given the situation he was thrown into.  A 5:1 assist-to-turnover ratio for a PG in a deep playoff run is really quite outstanding.

I have to think that this primarily owes to the fact that the guy has simply never been able to run any kind of an offense, lol, as he simply isn't a point guard, hence the reason for our "half-court offense" "operating" through Horford.

Sure, Rozier has an excellent assist-to-turnover ratio, but much like Smart, I'd argue that at least a good deal of his ill-advised shots essentially make for, well, turnovers, anyway, unfortunately :-\, if that makes any sense.

Re: Was Terry Rozier a top-20 guard last season?
« Reply #7 on: June 18, 2018, 01:46:50 AM »

Offline CelticsElite

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Arguably top 3 in the playoffs after what he did to the 76ers

Re: Was Terry Rozier a top-20 guard last season?
« Reply #8 on: June 18, 2018, 01:56:39 AM »

Offline blink

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I don't think he was a top 20 guard.

He surpassed all my expectations this year but he's still a streaky shooter and a bad defender who isn't someone I'm comfortable with running my offense.

I'm not familiar with the draft this year outside the top few guys so I can't put a pick # I'd trade for him.

I'd much rather keep Marcus because with Irving, Tatum and Hayward on the team I think smarts defense is more crucial than Roziers scoring

There are a lot of questions I have about this post, but the one that really jumps out at me is why aren’t you comfortable with Rozier running an offense?  I thought he showed terrific decision-making, especially given the situation he was thrown into.  A 5:1 assist-to-turnover ratio for a PG in a deep playoff run is really quite outstanding.

One of the really bright spots in our playoff run to me was how well Terry handled the ball.  He really limited the dumb turnovers, bad passes and impressed me with the development of his poise under pressure.   

Now I completely agree that he takes some bad shots, maybe not as many as smart takes but it is there.  Maybe some are confusing taking bad shots with not running the team well.  They seem different issues to me.

I am probably one of the few that doesn't think we should trade Terry this summer.  I think we bring him back for a title run next year.  I would rather have a better shot at getting to the finals this coming year than trading him for a draft pick in the 10-15 range, which is what I have been reading people think he is worth.

Re: Was Terry Rozier a top-20 guard last season?
« Reply #9 on: June 18, 2018, 01:58:28 AM »

Offline SparzWizard

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I don't think he was a top 20 guard.

He surpassed all my expectations this year but he's still a streaky shooter and a bad defender who isn't someone I'm comfortable with running my offense.

I'm not familiar with the draft this year outside the top few guys so I can't put a pick # I'd trade for him.

I'd much rather keep Marcus because with Irving, Tatum and Hayward on the team I think smarts defense is more crucial than Roziers scoring

Game 7 is one of the reasons why I can't trust him leading the offense in the long-run.


#JTJB (Just Trade Jaylen Brown)
#JFJM (Just Fire Joe Mazzulla)

Re: Was Terry Rozier a top-20 guard last season?
« Reply #10 on: June 18, 2018, 02:14:27 AM »

Offline saltlover

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I don't think he was a top 20 guard.

He surpassed all my expectations this year but he's still a streaky shooter and a bad defender who isn't someone I'm comfortable with running my offense.

I'm not familiar with the draft this year outside the top few guys so I can't put a pick # I'd trade for him.

I'd much rather keep Marcus because with Irving, Tatum and Hayward on the team I think smarts defense is more crucial than Roziers scoring

Game 7 is one of the reasons why I can't trust him leading the offense in the long-run.

This line of thinking completely ignores his 28/7 line on 10-16 shooting with 1 turnover in Game 6 on the road.  Terry and Brown get criticized for Game 7, but Game 6 they scored 55 of the team’s 99 points on only 34 shots and 1 combined turnover.  That was a potential series clinching performance on the road, but their teammates, particularly Morris and Horford, didn’t show.  Then LeBron went off and we got crushed on the boards.

There never should have been a Game 7.

Re: Was Terry Rozier a top-20 guard last season?
« Reply #11 on: June 18, 2018, 02:55:05 AM »

Offline Ilikesports17

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I don't think he was a top 20 guard.

He surpassed all my expectations this year but he's still a streaky shooter and a bad defender who isn't someone I'm comfortable with running my offense.

I'm not familiar with the draft this year outside the top few guys so I can't put a pick # I'd trade for him.

I'd much rather keep Marcus because with Irving, Tatum and Hayward on the team I think smarts defense is more crucial than Roziers scoring

There are a lot of questions I have about this post, but the one that really jumps out at me is why aren’t you comfortable with Rozier running an offense?  I thought he showed terrific decision-making, especially given the situation he was thrown into.  A 5:1 assist-to-turnover ratio for a PG in a deep playoff run is really quite outstanding.
He protects the ball well. I just don't see him as someone who can dissect a defense or create offense with his vision. I also don't think he's good passing out of the pick and roll which is something I think is really important.

He's never turned it over much, but I think his a/to ratio lies a little about how good of a passer he is.

But the big thing for me is his defense. he has no idea how to keep people in front of him and Clevelands entire game plan seemed to revolve around attacking him. Middleton abused him on switchs in rd 1 and the only game we lost in round 2 was in large part because he made TJ McConnell look like AI.

It was OK because we desperately needed his scoring but when Irving and Hayward are out there and Tatum continues to improve and Brown too, id rather have someone who can defend multiple positions and be an X factor on defense.
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Re: Was Terry Rozier a top-20 guard last season?
« Reply #12 on: June 18, 2018, 03:03:00 AM »

Offline Somebody

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I don't think he was a top 20 guard.

He surpassed all my expectations this year but he's still a streaky shooter and a bad defender who isn't someone I'm comfortable with running my offense.

I'm not familiar with the draft this year outside the top few guys so I can't put a pick # I'd trade for him.

I'd much rather keep Marcus because with Irving, Tatum and Hayward on the team I think smarts defense is more crucial than Roziers scoring

There are a lot of questions I have about this post, but the one that really jumps out at me is why aren’t you comfortable with Rozier running an offense?  I thought he showed terrific decision-making, especially given the situation he was thrown into.  A 5:1 assist-to-turnover ratio for a PG in a deep playoff run is really quite outstanding.
He protects the ball well. I just don't see him as someone who can dissect a defense or create offense with his vision. I also don't think he's good passing out of the pick and roll which is something I think is really important.

He's never turned it over much, but I think his a/to ratio lies a little about how good of a passer he is.

But the big thing for me is his defense. he has no idea how to keep people in front of him and Clevelands entire game plan seemed to revolve around attacking him. Middleton abused him on switchs in rd 1 and the only game we lost in round 2 was in large part because he made TJ McConnell look like AI.

It was OK because we desperately needed his scoring but when Irving and Hayward are out there and Tatum continues to improve and Brown too, id rather have someone who can defend multiple positions and be an X factor on defense.
I think Rozier will continue to improve on these areas. This season is kind of like his sophomore season since his rookie season had him rotting on the bench, and I still believe he can work on his defense and passing since he's still very much a raw player. I also want to add the point that if we think Kyrie can still improve, why can't Rozier make another leap as well? He's still 24 years old and this is the first season he started playing big minutes.
Jaylen Brown for All-NBA

Re: Was Terry Rozier a top-20 guard last season?
« Reply #13 on: June 18, 2018, 03:06:46 AM »

Offline Ilikesports17

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I don't think he was a top 20 guard.

He surpassed all my expectations this year but he's still a streaky shooter and a bad defender who isn't someone I'm comfortable with running my offense.

I'm not familiar with the draft this year outside the top few guys so I can't put a pick # I'd trade for him.

I'd much rather keep Marcus because with Irving, Tatum and Hayward on the team I think smarts defense is more crucial than Roziers scoring

Game 7 is one of the reasons why I can't trust him leading the offense in the long-run.

This line of thinking completely ignores his 28/7 line on 10-16 shooting with 1 turnover in Game 6 on the road.  Terry and Brown get criticized for Game 7, but Game 6 they scored 55 of the team’s 99 points on only 34 shots and 1 combined turnover.  That was a potential series clinching performance on the road, but their teammates, particularly Morris and Horford, didn’t show.  Then LeBron went off and we got crushed on the boards.

There never should have been a Game 7.
This is true but no one is even talking about bringing Morris back and the only reason he got minutes (in my opinion) was because he could do OK on James. The Cavs specifically attacked Rozier. Horford sucked in game 6 and disappeared down the stretch in game 7 and should get Edited.  Profanity and masked profanity are against forum rules and may result in discipline. for it.

I didn't think Rozier was as good in game 6 as his numbers suggested but game 7 was honestly not too surprising. He's a very streaky player. We all knew this coming in. That's who he is and who he's been. Unfortunately he sucked in a huge game. It happens. However, like he's done his whole career he showed 0 fear.

The problem with Terry is that when he's not scoring he's kinda useless. Can't really guard. Doesn't create for others. He does rebound well, but there's just too much time out there when he's giving you nothing.
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Re: Was Terry Rozier a top-20 guard last season?
« Reply #14 on: June 18, 2018, 05:24:17 AM »

Offline rollie mass

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Remember when Rozier came to Boston, it was spaghetti sandwiches and his first year and under any pressure he panicked and did his crablike side to side spurt up court with no destination.The point of this is, not to poke fun or criticize.He was a naive kid when he arrived, raw but with gifted physical talents.He said it quite concisely recently, Kyrie is the point guard but everyday he going to compete with him and learn .Making them both better.
His first year with Red Claws was not wasted.
Now apprenticing behind Kyrie is a gift ,you can see already the use of backboard, the dribble splits ,floaters and off wrong foot technique. Even the realization that playing below rim or change of speed getting up shot can be an asset.
.Kyrie is a genius and a magician off the dribble and tantalizes with his shooting. Kyrie was number one pick and a 5 time all star groomed by his father who played the game to a very high level
-Rozier learned the game playing street ball on city courts but he is learning fast.There is a big difference from being a scorer to running a team with the talent Boston has.Listening to Kyrie speak about knowing he could beat that guy every time or get that shot but passing it up  to keep his teammates in the game and in the flow.Maybe that applies to passing on certain players at certain times like Butler or Leona

.A spaghetti sandwich? i still eat peanut butter on white toast-