I believe it's more about health. If we are 100%, I think we can compete with anyone this year.
As the old NBA cliché goes, ‘The greatest ability is availability.’
No.
They're already a fringe title contender (offense and defense that are top 5 in the league, top 5 net rating). One random starter/high level bench piece piece doesn't change that imho.
To ascend from that fringe contender zone they go from having 3 top 25 guys to at least 1 top 10 guy. Honestly if this year's Bucks team wasn't so good they'd probably not be "fringe", but the Bucks are a 07-08 Celtics, second/third year Miami LeBron, a 15-16 GSW level, etc. team.
Those sort of teams get beat of course, but its tough!
Agree with this take. We already are a contender, just not a strong one, and another bench piece at best shuffles us closer to the top of that crowded mix.
Here's my contender tiers, teams in no particular order:
Tier 1
Bucks
Tier 2
Lakers
Clippers
Tier 3
Us
Rockets
Nuggets
Raptors
Heat
Sixers
Maybe Pacers with Oladipo back
There's no realistic bench piece that brings us up into the LA tier let alone alongside Milwaukee. Barring major developments we peak at 4th best chance.
I don’t have any particular quibble with your tiers, but you’ve certainly left out Utah, which is currently second in the West, and most importantly Dallas, which has a point differential equal to Boston‘s.
I’d recommend looking at Point Differential. Historically it’s been a good predictor of playoff success.
Here are the current standings for the top teams in the league by Point Differential:
Milwaukee 12.7
LA Lakers 7.8
Boston 7.1
Dallas 7.1
LA Clippers 6.2
Toronto 6.0
Utah 5.3
Houston 4.4
Miami 3.7
Philadelphia 3.3
Denver 3.3
Indiana 3.0
By this measure, Milwaukee is indeed in a tier by itself. On the other hand, Boston and that interloper Dallas are solidly in the second tier.
If Boston can sustain the defensive intensity that we’ve seen in the last two games, I’d bet that that is exactly where Boston belongs.
The arguments in this thread that you need to have top players to win a championship are good ones. As Red Auerbach once said, “You’ve got to have the horses.” Understood.
Here’s my theory: the more a team relies on its defense, the more importance its depth is; and the more that it relies on its offense, the more important its star power is. The 2012 Mavericks, the 2004 Pistons, and the 2001 Philadelphia 76ers are examples of teams whose defense was better than their offense.