Author Topic: Zach Lowe re: All-Stars  (Read 7564 times)

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Re: Zach Lowe re: All-Stars
« Reply #15 on: January 23, 2020, 01:37:49 PM »

Offline keevsnick

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I think Tatum may have a small edge over Brown, but I dont think putting Brown on over Tatum is some travesty or anything. Its certainly defensible.

What I'm worried about is Jaylen and Tatum split the "2nd Celtic" vote and neither makes it.

Re: Zach Lowe re: All-Stars
« Reply #16 on: January 23, 2020, 01:38:43 PM »

Offline Fafnir

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Tatum should be an all star this year, over Jaylen Brown. Celts though probably shouldn’t have 3 all stars, which means JB probably deserves to get cut.
I think they deserve three. The reason the C's have been so good this year is that they have 3 all-star level players, even though I'm not sure any of the three is quite all-NBA caliber. (Tatum/Kemba have a 3rd team last spot type of consideration argument but many all-stars are firmly on that team already)

League wide, what 4-5 guards do you see ahead of Kemba for All-NBA that would potentially put him last spot on 3rd team?  On my personal ballot, I have Kemba firmly in 2nd Team All-NBA (continuing an impressive run of PGs in Stevens system).  It's Doncic, Harden, Lillard, Kemba, with a clear gap between Kemba and the next tier down (Young, Beal, Simmons, Lowry, Booker, Mitchell, etc.).
You're actually right, I forgot how many other guards who I think would typically make it ahead of him have been hurt and either not played or not played much.

Harden, Luka, Butler, Lillard, George were what I was thinking. But Butler is listed at F and George hasn't played enough....

So I'd have him second team at the moment.

Re: Zach Lowe re: All-Stars
« Reply #17 on: January 23, 2020, 01:54:40 PM »

Offline Who

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Tatum should be an all star this year, over Jaylen Brown. Celts though probably shouldn’t have 3 all stars, which means JB probably deserves to get cut.
I think they deserve three. The reason the C's have been so good this year is that they have 3 all-star level players, even though I'm not sure any of the three is quite all-NBA caliber. (Tatum/Kemba have a 3rd team last spot type of consideration argument but many all-stars are firmly on that team already)

League wide, what 4-5 guards do you see ahead of Kemba for All-NBA that would potentially put him last spot on 3rd team?  On my personal ballot, I have Kemba firmly in 2nd Team All-NBA (continuing an impressive run of PGs in Stevens system).  It's Doncic, Harden, Lillard, Kemba, with a clear gap between Kemba and the next tier down (Young, Beal, Simmons, Lowry, Booker, Mitchell, etc.).

I'd put Jimmy Butler in as a guard on both the All-Star team and the All-NBA teams.

Miami plays

G - Nunn - combo guard
G/F - Jimmy Butler - wing
F - Duncan Robinson - combo forward
F/C - Meyers Leonard - combo big
C/F - Bam Adebayo - combo big

I think Jimmy has a good case for being placed as a guard. He is their second ball-handler after Nunn. Jimmy is also their team's main playmaker / passer.

That makes the All-Star selections a little easier. Get in guys who are more deserving.

All-NBA teams too. That would have Kemba on the bubble between the 2nd and 3rd teams versus Lillard whose team hasn't done well this season.

Re: Zach Lowe re: All-Stars
« Reply #18 on: January 23, 2020, 02:08:50 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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My thing is that (a) Tatum should definitely be an All-Star and (b) if you're picking between Tatum and Brown, it's not a hard choice. 


I disagree that it's not a hard choice.   Tatum has played more minutes and has taken more shots, but otherwise their counting numbers (especially when you look at per-36) are almost identical across the board ... except Jaylen has simply been much more efficient.

Tatum has also been much more dependent on Hayward's presence.   His scoring efficiency fluctuates wildly depending on whether Hayward is on the floor (57.6% TS) or not (51.9%).   Jaylen's scoring efficiency has been steady (59.8, 59.5) and less dependent on Hayward's presence.

I can understand arguments made for either.  I don't think it's a simple, obvious choice at all.  Personally, I think both are playing at AS level right now and deserve to make the cut.


Admittedly I'm going based on my personal feeling about this -- I know that the stats support Jaylen's case.  They are remarkably similar statistically except that Jaylen has been more efficient.

Even so, my perception from watching the team play is that Tatum is more central to what they do and has had more games where I think he personally breaks the game open (e.g. the last two games).  Jaylen is more steady in how he gets his points.  There is something to be said for being steady, but I don't think there have been as many games where Jaylen takes over in the way that Tatum has at various points.



As for the guard / forward split, I acknowledge that it may come into play here.  I think it's silly to restrict All-Star spots by position, and I also think it's silly to treat Jaylen and Jayson as though they play different positions.  Functionally they both play at the wing spot and defend the same kinds of players, by and large.  But I recognize that it's just how the All-Star selection process works even though it's somewhat arbitrary.
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Re: Zach Lowe re: All-Stars
« Reply #19 on: January 23, 2020, 04:44:51 PM »

Offline fairweatherfan

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Brown over Tatum is as many are noting a hard call but also feels like a 2-3 week old take, which makes some sense as Lowe was probably at least outlining this a ways back.  Brown was kind of a trendier suggestion at that point and Tatum was putting up some duds so there was some implied momentum. The last 6 games have narrowed that gap very fast and now the momentum's with Tatum.

To me I like Brown better overall and Tatum's lows have been both lower and more frequent than Brown's, and obviously the advanced stats mostly agree, but Tatum feels like more of an All-Star, though it could be that recency bias and how unstoppable he's looked at his best.

Maybe the coaches will split the baby and just freeze both of them out, then nobody has to be disappointed.

Re: Zach Lowe re: All-Stars
« Reply #20 on: January 23, 2020, 04:58:54 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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Brown over Tatum is as many are noting a hard call but also feels like a 2-3 week old take, which makes some sense as Lowe was probably at least outlining this a ways back.  Brown was kind of a trendier suggestion at that point and Tatum was putting up some duds so there was some implied momentum. The last 6 games have narrowed that gap very fast and now the momentum's with Tatum.

To me I like Brown better overall and Tatum's lows have been both lower and more frequent than Brown's, and obviously the advanced stats mostly agree, but Tatum feels like more of an All-Star, though it could be that recency bias and how unstoppable he's looked at his best.

Maybe the coaches will split the baby and just freeze both of them out, then nobody has to be disappointed.
Excellent way to look at it. I love Brown, he is definitely my binkie but I love Tatum too. I think Tatum's upside is more up than Brown, and think since Brown slumped and got injured coincided with a better performing/hot Tatum there is definitely a recency bias.

For me if only one goes in I have to go with Brown due to efficiency, better consistency and because Brown is often the one guarding the larger/more physical/more talented offensive player on the court when they are both on the court. People can call Jaylen a guard and Tatum a PF but fact is Brown is more likely to be guarding the PF starting for the other team than Tatum is. Tatum is generally guarding the least offensively talented of the players playing 2-4 for the other team.

But, in reality, it's massive nitpicking. I think they have played nearly equally great this year and think both are deserving of a spot this year. I think there might be some truth in the thought of Jaylen getting in because he is designated a guard rather than a forward. like Tatum.

Re: Zach Lowe re: All-Stars
« Reply #21 on: January 23, 2020, 05:23:23 PM »

Offline rondofan1255

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In case anyone missed it, the starters reveal is at 7 PM EST tonight

After that, head coaches will choose reserves to be announced January 30.  :D

Re: Zach Lowe re: All-Stars
« Reply #22 on: January 23, 2020, 05:35:34 PM »

Offline SparzWizard

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Hopefully they both miss the trip and just rest up for the next regular-season game after the break.


#JTJB (Just Trade Jaylen Brown)
#JFJM (Just Fire Joe Mazzulla)

Re: Zach Lowe re: All-Stars
« Reply #23 on: January 23, 2020, 05:40:30 PM »

Offline libermaniac

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Hopefully they both miss the trip and just rest up for the next regular-season game after the break.
I totally agree. TP. Not to mention they will both play with a chip on their shoulders for the next 12 months. It’s best for the Celtics IMO.

Re: Zach Lowe re: All-Stars
« Reply #24 on: January 23, 2020, 06:52:32 PM »

Offline ETNCeltics

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The only real argument for leaving Tatum off is he is a front court player which is just deeper than the guards.  I don't really have any issue with Giannis, Butler, Embiid, Siakam, Adebayo, Sabonis, and Middleton making the team.  That is 7 front court players, you can't put an 8th on the team so if you put Tatum on, you have to take one of those players off.  Embiid actually seems like the easiest to remove given his games played, but I expect him to start and I'd have a hard time putting Boston's #2 player (even though I think he is the most valuable, he probably isn't quite as good as Walker yet) in over the #1 player on the Pacers (who are just behind Boston in record), or the #2 players on the two top teams in the conference.

I know Lowe didn't frame it that way, but that seems like a reasonable enough result when you do look at this way.  The guards are much weaker and with guys like Irving being hurt, it makes it easier for Brown to get in even though Tatum has been the better player.
Butler is treated as a guard in the voting. Beal, Lowry, Young, Kyrie, Kemba, Simmons, Butler, Brown, Brogdon. There's a lot of guards to consider.

OTOH, Freak, Embiid, Siakham, Sabonis, maybe Bam and Middleton, it's a pretty small list of guys that I'd put ahead of Tatum in the front court, and you'd have to assume they're going to take at least 7 front court players.

IMO, Tatum's a lock, and Brown has very little chance to make it.

Re: Zach Lowe re: All-Stars
« Reply #25 on: January 23, 2020, 07:06:41 PM »

Offline Donoghus

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Per Shams.

2020 East All-Star starters:
Atlanta’s Trae Young
Boston’s Kemba Walker
Toronto's Pascal Siakam
Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo (captain)
Philadlephia’s Joel Embiid


2010 CB Historical Draft - Best Overall Team

Re: Zach Lowe re: All-Stars
« Reply #26 on: January 23, 2020, 07:07:19 PM »

Offline rondofan1255

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Re: Zach Lowe re: All-Stars
« Reply #27 on: January 23, 2020, 07:14:30 PM »

Offline gouki88

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Per Shams.

2020 East All-Star starters:
Atlanta’s Trae Young
Boston’s Kemba Walker
Toronto's Pascal Siakam
Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo (captain)
Philadlephia’s Joel Embiid
Can’t really argue with that in my opinion
'23 Historical Draft: Orlando Magic.

PG: Terry Porter (90-91) / Steve Francis (00-01)
SG: Joe Dumars (92-93) / Jeff Hornacek (91-92) / Jerry Stackhouse (00-01)
SF: Brandon Roy (08-09) / Walter Davis (78-79)
PF: Terry Cummings (84-85) / Paul Millsap (15-16)
C: Chris Webber (00-01) / Ralph Sampson (83-84) / Andrew Bogut (09-10)

Re: Zach Lowe re: All-Stars
« Reply #28 on: January 23, 2020, 07:18:33 PM »

Offline Donoghus

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2020 West All-Star starters:
Dallas’ Luka Doncic
Houston’s James Harden
Lakers’ LeBron James (captain)
Clippers’ Kawhi Leonard
Lakers’ Anthony Davis


2010 CB Historical Draft - Best Overall Team

Re: Zach Lowe re: All-Stars
« Reply #29 on: January 23, 2020, 07:59:22 PM »

Offline RockinRyA

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I think both should make it, but I lean toward Jaylen as being my first choice.  He’s put up almost the same numbers on much superior efficiency.

I agree. I think this recent stretch has something to do with why fans are this way though. Tatum is on a hot stretch while Brown was in a mini slump. Although Tatum was in a similar slump, but he has had time to shake it off while Brown was on the injured list. Tatum is too inconsistent and less efficient so far that its making it hard for me to put him over brown. He makes a ton of selfish decisions on the floor, just masked by shots going in