Author Topic: First NBA player opts out of remaining season  (Read 6485 times)

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Re: First NBA player opts out of remaining season
« Reply #45 on: June 24, 2020, 02:05:23 PM »

Offline keevsnick

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I don't have much of an opinion on the Wizards but why should he risk illness or injury? I was listening to a pod that talked about his decision and they said the Wizards need to go 6-2 in the "regular season" games to get into the play in, then win 2 in a row against Memphis to get the 8 seed to play the Bucks.  Why would he risk what is likely the biggest payday he will see in his career to injury or potential his life due to Covid for that?  Not to mention that Covid isn't the flu and there can be long term side affects after "recovery."

I think with the Covid numbers getting as bad as they are in FL right now I'm not sure the NBA can moved forward with their plan.  Especially if more players make logical decisions like this.

I don’t think it’s right.  Do we now give every creations the option of sitting out the last 10 games of the season and playoffs? Because this has nothing to do with Covid
1. why don't you think this is "right"?

2. please define "right" in this context.

3. why should people be compelled to work a job they don't feel safe doing? if he isn't paid for not playing, i am fine with that. but to compel other human beings to perform for our entertainment seems a bit over board.

4. please prove this has nothing to do with COVID-19, and, why that matters.

thank you.

He’s under contract.

That contract is subject to collective bargaining terms and the Association and the Players have apparently negotiated the option to opt-out of a return.

Yes, but the implicit reason was due to the coronavirus.  Bertrans’ agent made it clear that this is about economics.  I think giving up on your team to pursue your individual interests in a playoff race is wrong.

What "implicit reason"?  What is the actual language?

And it is not unreasonable to argue that it is due to the COVID-19 pandemic that created the situation - the heightened risk of injury in trying to come back for a short season after such a long break.

This is not a risk that FAs would be facing if not for COVID-19.

What evidence is there that players are more at risk for career altering injury in July than in April?

No one is saying the month somehow alters the likelihood of injury (and I think you know that). But having a long layoff in the middle of the season and then coming back to high intensity play (which the fight for playoff seeding/the playoffs themselves will be) absolutely can.

Where’s the evidence that playing 8 games after a lay-off is more dangerous than 8 games in April?

I couldn't find specific injury rates by month for the NBA, but for the MLB, the injury rates are very clearly highest at the start of each season.
Code: [Select]
Month   Injury Rate per 1000 Athlete Exposures
April          1.4
May            1.3
June           1.2
July           0.9
August         0.8
September      1.0
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Injuries-by-Month-for-Major-League-Baseball_tbl2_334775594

I would be shocked if the same were not true of most sports.  I don't hear any signs of NBA administration or team management challenging players such as Bertans on this choice.  I suspect they all tacitly concede the legitimacy of the argument.

Also, I would like clarification on what the terms of the opt-out choice are.  You asserted an "implicit reason" of it being COVID-19 related.  I don't know if that is true or not.

I think some of this may be that April and even May to some extent tend to have worse weather cold/rain games which I imagine leads to an increase in injury.

A great test for this would be looking at the NFL and NHL.  If weather plays a role, I'd expect NFL rates to rise as the season progresses, while NHL would not be affected by weather.

Not the same metric (this one is total instead of rate), but the best I can google shows injuries increase as the NFL season progresses, (of course this could all be due to the more physical nature of the sport).


NHL study here, I think this would be most similar to the NBA (weather doesn't play a part, similar season length).  No injury spike in the beginning of the season here.


Of course this is all about as apples to oranges as you can get, due to the different nature of each sport.  Seeing consistent metrics for all sports from the same study would definitely be interesting though. 


One interesting thing, both MLB and NHL show a drop in the 2nd half of the season, spiking back up a little in the final month.  While MLB's final uptick could be weather related (if that does play a part), I wonder if those dips and final uptick are due to a large portion of players/teams mailing it in the 2nd half of the year.  1st half, everybody is competitive, fighting for team success or maybe an All-Star berth, but by the 2nd half you know where you stand, and if you're not fighting for playoff seeding or individual accolades, you're probably taking it easy.  Then that final uptick is players resting for the playoffs or using an injury as an excuse to go on vacation early.

Great post.

I'm dubious in this case there's going to be much effect on injury. These guys will have scrimmages, practice time, ect, around a month to work their way back into game shape. If anything the hiatus might lead to better rested guys and less injury than you would normally see the last 20% of a season.

Re: First NBA player opts out of remaining season
« Reply #46 on: June 24, 2020, 02:16:08 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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I don't have much of an opinion on the Wizards but why should he risk illness or injury? I was listening to a pod that talked about his decision and they said the Wizards need to go 6-2 in the "regular season" games to get into the play in, then win 2 in a row against Memphis to get the 8 seed to play the Bucks.  Why would he risk what is likely the biggest payday he will see in his career to injury or potential his life due to Covid for that?  Not to mention that Covid isn't the flu and there can be long term side affects after "recovery."

I think with the Covid numbers getting as bad as they are in FL right now I'm not sure the NBA can moved forward with their plan.  Especially if more players make logical decisions like this.

I don’t think it’s right.  Do we now give every creations the option of sitting out the last 10 games of the season and playoffs? Because this has nothing to do with Covid
1. why don't you think this is "right"?

2. please define "right" in this context.

3. why should people be compelled to work a job they don't feel safe doing? if he isn't paid for not playing, i am fine with that. but to compel other human beings to perform for our entertainment seems a bit over board.

4. please prove this has nothing to do with COVID-19, and, why that matters.

thank you.

He’s under contract.

That contract is subject to collective bargaining terms and the Association and the Players have apparently negotiated the option to opt-out of a return.

Yes, but the implicit reason was due to the coronavirus.  Bertrans’ agent made it clear that this is about economics.  I think giving up on your team to pursue your individual interests in a playoff race is wrong.

What "implicit reason"?  What is the actual language?

And it is not unreasonable to argue that it is due to the COVID-19 pandemic that created the situation - the heightened risk of injury in trying to come back for a short season after such a long break.

This is not a risk that FAs would be facing if not for COVID-19.

What evidence is there that players are more at risk for career altering injury in July than in April?

No one is saying the month somehow alters the likelihood of injury (and I think you know that). But having a long layoff in the middle of the season and then coming back to high intensity play (which the fight for playoff seeding/the playoffs themselves will be) absolutely can.

Where’s the evidence that playing 8 games after a lay-off is more dangerous than 8 games in April?

I couldn't find specific injury rates by month for the NBA, but for the MLB, the injury rates are very clearly highest at the start of each season.
Code: [Select]
Month   Injury Rate per 1000 Athlete Exposures
April          1.4
May            1.3
June           1.2
July           0.9
August         0.8
September      1.0
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Injuries-by-Month-for-Major-League-Baseball_tbl2_334775594

I would be shocked if the same were not true of most sports.  I don't hear any signs of NBA administration or team management challenging players such as Bertans on this choice.  I suspect they all tacitly concede the legitimacy of the argument.

Also, I would like clarification on what the terms of the opt-out choice are.  You asserted an "implicit reason" of it being COVID-19 related.  I don't know if that is true or not.

This is very interesting. Do you know what is considered an injury in these MLB stats? I looked but could see the criteria. Just wondering if it is any reported or treated injury or an injury that prevents or limits play?

From my various readings, hamstring and quad injuries are the predominant problem in spring-training and early-season baseball.   
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