Author Topic: Please stop with the pull up threes on the break  (Read 2570 times)

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Please stop with the pull up threes on the break
« on: March 24, 2019, 11:45:05 PM »

Offline Chris22

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It never works.

Only Kyrie can do it, and I don't even like when he does it.

Brad is a weak a.. coach.

Re: Please stop with the pull up threes on the break
« Reply #1 on: March 25, 2019, 04:11:47 AM »

Offline ozgod

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It never works.

Only Kyrie can do it, and I don't even like when he does it.

Brad is a weak a.. coach.

The issue with this team is everyone thinks they have the right and ability to do this. They all think they're the man. I know Brad encourages them to shoot but they should try and use their brains once in a while.
Any odd typos are because I suck at typing on an iPhone :D

Re: Please stop with the pull up threes on the break
« Reply #2 on: March 25, 2019, 05:14:06 AM »

Offline Somebody

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It never works.

Only Kyrie can do it, and I don't even like when he does it.

Brad is a weak a.. coach.

The issue with this team is everyone thinks they have the right and ability to do this. They all think they're the man. I know Brad encourages them to shoot but they should try and use their brains once in a while.
To be fair guys like Jaylen can do it.
Jaylen Brown for All-NBA

Re: Please stop with the pull up threes on the break
« Reply #3 on: March 25, 2019, 05:40:30 AM »

Offline ozgod

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It never works.

Only Kyrie can do it, and I don't even like when he does it.

Brad is a weak a.. coach.

The issue with this team is everyone thinks they have the right and ability to do this. They all think they're the man. I know Brad encourages them to shoot but they should try and use their brains once in a while.
To be fair guys like Jaylen can do it.

Jaylen's only 32% on pull-up 3s this season and that's on a sample size of 0.4 attempts a game. Kyrie's the only one above 35%.



For comparison here's the NBA top 3pt pull up shooters among players who play at least 20min, have played at least 50 games and attempt at least 2 3s a game.

Any odd typos are because I suck at typing on an iPhone :D

Re: Please stop with the pull up threes on the break
« Reply #4 on: March 25, 2019, 07:54:36 AM »

Offline SHAQATTACK

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kyrie is the only person this team that should have agreen light for this shot ,  unless it is garbage time.

Re: Please stop with the pull up threes on the break
« Reply #5 on: March 25, 2019, 09:41:31 AM »

Offline boscel33

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Welcome to the new NBA!  Some where, an analytic person said, shooting 30-40% from three is better than shooting 50-60% from two.  While statistically that may be correct (I haven't done the math), I believe it can hurt the team's momentum and be a killer to them.
"There's sharks and minnows in this world. If you don't know which you are, you ain't a shark."

Re: Please stop with the pull up threes on the break
« Reply #6 on: March 25, 2019, 09:53:00 AM »

Offline CptZoogs

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Welcome to the new NBA!  Some where, an analytic person said, shooting 30-40% from three is better than shooting 50-60% from two.  While statistically that may be correct (I haven't done the math), I believe it can hurt the team's momentum and be a killer to them.

The math behind this argument is actually pretty basic.  They are looking at the expected value of the probability distributions, which boils down to a weighted average.  The expected value of 50% 2 pointer is .5*2+.5*0=1.  The expected value for a 33% 3 pointer is roughly .33*3+.67*0=1.  What I don’t like about this argument is that it treats each shot as an independent event and takes no account of a player’s rhythm.  It also does not account for transition opportunities awarded to the other team with a miss.
« Last Edit: March 25, 2019, 11:18:49 AM by CptZoogs »

Re: Please stop with the pull up threes on the break
« Reply #7 on: March 25, 2019, 10:48:48 AM »

Offline celticinorlando

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Lazy offense. Rather shoot long 3s than play team basketball.

Re: Please stop with the pull up threes on the break
« Reply #8 on: March 25, 2019, 11:27:49 AM »

Offline Triplenickle

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Welcome to the new NBA!  Some where, an analytic person said, shooting 30-40% from three is better than shooting 50-60% from two.  While statistically that may be correct (I haven't done the math), I believe it can hurt the team's momentum and be a killer to them.

3's have always been like fluff to me. If you have a couple guys that can shoot it, great...but give me guys like Giannis anyday. Guys that can outquick and outmuscle you. Guys that aren't afraid of getting hit.

Someone that cuts through the defense so bad the other team want to quit.

That's the main reason I enjoyed IT so much...and he shot a fair share of 3's.

Re: Please stop with the pull up threes on the break
« Reply #9 on: March 25, 2019, 11:42:33 AM »

Offline GreenCoffeeBean

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Welcome to the new NBA!  Some where, an analytic person said, shooting 30-40% from three is better than shooting 50-60% from two.  While statistically that may be correct (I haven't done the math), I believe it can hurt the team's momentum and be a killer to them.

The math behind this argument is actually pretty basic.  They are looking at the expected value of the probability distributions, which boils down to a weighted average.  The expected value of 50% 2 pointer is .5*2+.5*0=1.  The expected value for a 33% 3 pointer is roughly .33*3+.67*0=1.  What I don’t like about this argument is that it treats each shot as an independent event and takes no account of a player’s rhythm.  It also does not account for transition opportunities awarded to the other team with a miss.

We can't talk about expected value without also talking about standard deviation, variance, and sample size. Three pointers having a lower percentage means they have much higher variance than 2 pointers, especially on breaks where 2 pointers should be really high and even higher if you factor in the increased chance of shooting free throws. We don't know what a good sample size looks like in the NBA. It could be in the tens of thousands of shots rather than thousands or hundreds. You can play with different numbers of shot percentage and sample sizes to figure out where we are standard deviation wise.

Tl; dr: the stat nerds need to chill out. It's not just about percentages.

Re: Please stop with the pull up threes on the break
« Reply #10 on: March 25, 2019, 12:15:24 PM »

Offline CptZoogs

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Welcome to the new NBA!  Some where, an analytic person said, shooting 30-40% from three is better than shooting 50-60% from two.  While statistically that may be correct (I haven't done the math), I believe it can hurt the team's momentum and be a killer to them.
The math behind this argument is actually pretty basic.  They are looking at the expected value of the probability distributions, which boils down to a weighted average.  The expected value of 50% 2 pointer is .5*2+.5*0=1.  The expected value for a 33% 3 pointer is roughly .33*3+.67*0=1.  What I don’t like about this argument is that it treats each shot as an independent event and takes no account of a player’s rhythm.  It also does not account for transition opportunities awarded to the other team with a miss.

We can't talk about expected value without also talking about standard deviation, variance, and sample size. Three pointers having a lower percentage means they have much higher variance than 2 pointers, especially on breaks where 2 pointers should be really high and even higher if you factor in the increased chance of shooting free throws. We don't know what a good sample size looks like in the NBA. It could be in the tens of thousands of shots rather than thousands or hundreds. You can play with different numbers of shot percentage and sample sizes to figure out where we are standard deviation wise.

Tl; dr: the stat nerds need to chill out. It's not just about percentages.

Good points on the variability.  As with any random phenomenon, the short term predictive value of something like expected value is not very helpful.  They are describing what will happen in the long run.  So game to game, I feel the argument breaks down.    Though ironically, increasing the sample size seems to be one of our game to game issues!  Too many 3's!

Re: Please stop with the pull up threes on the break
« Reply #11 on: March 25, 2019, 12:24:27 PM »

Offline Sophomore

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Welcome to the new NBA!  Some where, an analytic person said, shooting 30-40% from three is better than shooting 50-60% from two.  While statistically that may be correct (I haven't done the math), I believe it can hurt the team's momentum and be a killer to them.

3's have always been like fluff to me. If you have a couple guys that can shoot it, great...but give me guys like Giannis anyday. Guys that can outquick and outmuscle you. Guys that aren't afraid of getting hit.

Someone that cuts through the defense so bad the other team want to quit.

That's the main reason I enjoyed IT so much...and he shot a fair share of 3's.

Giannis’ team is wayyyy better this year because opposing teams pay for packing the middle to keep him away from the rim.

Re: Please stop with the pull up threes on the break
« Reply #12 on: March 25, 2019, 01:57:09 PM »

Offline gpap

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The other thing this team does that I don't like (and I really noticed it when I was at the game last night) is they pass up ALOT of open shots when they're inside the perimeter.

Take Hayward for example because he's been guilty of this numerous times. He'll have the ball and will literally be frozen in time, trying to figure out whether to pass or shoot. It's almost the opposite extreme from chucking 3s and I can't stand both approaches.

If you've got the ball and no one is open, then shoot it! And it's not just Hayward. Alot of guys on the team do it. If you're afraid to take the shot and help take the game over then sit down and get someone else to do it.

It's like the team is playing scared and isn't loose.

Re: Please stop with the pull up threes on the break
« Reply #13 on: March 25, 2019, 02:10:54 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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The other thing this team does that I don't like (and I really noticed it when I was at the game last night) is they pass up ALOT of open shots when they're inside the perimeter.

Take Hayward for example because he's been guilty of this numerous times. He'll have the ball and will literally be frozen in time, trying to figure out whether to pass or shoot. It's almost the opposite extreme from chucking 3s and I can't stand both approaches.

If you've got the ball and no one is open, then shoot it! And it's not just Hayward. Alot of guys on the team do it. If you're afraid to take the shot and help take the game over then sit down and get someone else to do it.

It's like the team is playing scared and isn't loose.
So you are okay with just chucking it, just not from three?

Re: Please stop with the pull up threes on the break
« Reply #14 on: March 25, 2019, 02:18:42 PM »

Offline gpap

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The other thing this team does that I don't like (and I really noticed it when I was at the game last night) is they pass up ALOT of open shots when they're inside the perimeter.

Take Hayward for example because he's been guilty of this numerous times. He'll have the ball and will literally be frozen in time, trying to figure out whether to pass or shoot. It's almost the opposite extreme from chucking 3s and I can't stand both approaches.

If you've got the ball and no one is open, then shoot it! And it's not just Hayward. Alot of guys on the team do it. If you're afraid to take the shot and help take the game over then sit down and get someone else to do it.

It's like the team is playing scared and isn't loose.
So you are okay with just chucking it, just not from three?

If that's what you got out of what I wrote, then I have nothing else to say.