Author Topic: Could Horford end up being the worst contract of offseason?  (Read 91578 times)

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Re: Could Horford end up being the worst contract of offseason?
« Reply #30 on: July 17, 2019, 05:29:23 PM »

Offline obnoxiousmime

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Remember, the deal is 97 million guaranteed and 12 million "tied to championships." So that's 24.25 million/year with the potential to be worth 27.25/year (the details of the bonus haven't been revealed so I'm just guessing based on an average). If they win a title, they'd gladly pay that. I'm just pointing this out because it seems like some people are thinking he's making the max or something.

I don't think that's a crazy amount because they're clearly going for it and two years of solid play would make the deal worth it. Also, they had to sign somebody before Simmons' contract extension kicks in and they're capped out. Were there better ways to spend that money? I can't really think of anyone else that would have gone there that is an impact guy, maybe Bojan Bogdanovic since they need shooting? Or, they could have tried to get Mirotic who went to Europe. Other than that, there aren't many other attractive names that aren't role players and whom fit their team.

There's also the added benefit of making the Celtics weaker in the short term. Horford was one of the few guys who could somewhat guard Embiid one-on-one, and he's also good (if you can say anybody is) at guarding Giannis.

Basically, it's the kind of deal that makes sense for a contending team but is too rich for a non-contender. That's why you could say both Philly and the Celtics made the right decision.

You can argue about the 4th year having only partial guaranteed money (at which point al will be 37?) but he is making 28, 27, 27 the next 3 years and from everything i am reading all of that is fully guaranteed. Not really reasonable to try and finesse the numbers because the last year is not guaranteed. They are paying him legit all-star money the next 3 years.

Doesn't that make the deal better for the Sixers then? If it's 28, 27, 27, then 15 + 12 potential bonus, they could potentially move on from him in year four if they haven't won a title. Sure, there's still the guaranteed 15 which is not nothing, but at least it's at the end of the deal not the beginning. A descending salary is almost always preferential in my book.

If they DO win a title, nobody will be complaining about the deal in years 3 or 4.

Re: Could Horford end up being the worst contract of offseason?
« Reply #31 on: July 17, 2019, 06:56:21 PM »

Offline Moranis

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Al Horford has the 23rd highest contract for the upcoming season, tied with Nikola Vucevic.  He probably is a bit worse than that as a player, but I'd say he should still have top 30ish impact when accounting for everything and he obviously is making more than anyone on a rookie scale contract. 

In 2020 without accounting for any new money (like say Anthony Davis), he has the 38th highest contract.  Again that doesn't seem that far off from where you would expect him to be especially without the rookie scale contracts.

In 2021 he is sitting at 28th.  By the time that season rolls around though he will be much lower than that after 2 more summers of new contracts. 

In 2022 (with all incentives), he is at 22nd.  That will obviously be much lower by the time the season rolls around, especially if he doesn't hit the incentives.

In other words, Horford is paid about where you would expect based on his perceived production.  This just seems like a case of not fully grasping just how much money players are making these days.  Everyone makes a ton of money.
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Re: Could Horford end up being the worst contract of offseason?
« Reply #32 on: July 17, 2019, 07:05:30 PM »

Offline BringToughnessBack

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One of the most important things about his deal is it allows them to rest Embiid and still field a competitive team. A fresh Embiid in playoffs with Al and company is going to be a tough out. Still not sold on end of game hero for them but this is a good signing even with a decline. Al can also be rested a bit with Embiid there.

Only way this deal ends up bad is if if Horford breaks down first year and is rendered a shell for remainder of contract. It might happen, but not in first few years is my guess.

Re: Could Horford end up being the worst contract of offseason?
« Reply #33 on: July 17, 2019, 07:57:55 PM »

Online tazzmaniac

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There are plenty of players, including KD, who could end up being the worst contract. 
At this point, I think you need to look at whether the contract signing made sense for the team.  Sixers overpaying for Horford makes sense given their situation.  Kings overpaying for Barnes?  Not so much.  Who were they even bidding against? 

Re: Could Horford end up being the worst contract of offseason?
« Reply #34 on: July 17, 2019, 08:01:22 PM »

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Re: Could Horford end up being the worst contract of offseason?
« Reply #35 on: July 17, 2019, 08:05:40 PM »

Offline Muzzy66

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Al Horford has the 23rd highest contract for the upcoming season, tied with Nikola Vucevic.  He probably is a bit worse than that as a player, but I'd say he should still have top 30ish impact when accounting for everything and he obviously is making more than anyone on a rookie scale contract. 

In 2020 without accounting for any new money (like say Anthony Davis), he has the 38th highest contract.  Again that doesn't seem that far off from where you would expect him to be especially without the rookie scale contracts.

In 2021 he is sitting at 28th.  By the time that season rolls around though he will be much lower than that after 2 more summers of new contracts. 

In 2022 (with all incentives), he is at 22nd.  That will obviously be much lower by the time the season rolls around, especially if he doesn't hit the incentives.

In other words, Horford is paid about where you would expect based on his perceived production.  This just seems like a case of not fully grasping just how much money players are making these days.  Everyone makes a ton of money.

I would respectfully disagree. 

Year one of year 1 of the contract is fine, and year 2 will probably be reasonable too.  But when he goes into year 3 and 4 at the age of 36 and 37 there's a good chance  that Philly will be paying all-star money for a guy who is playing a fringe-starter level.

I think Philly's screwed themselves in a huge way financially, and taken a MASSIVE risk in the desperate hope of winning a title in the next two seasons.

Lets look at it this way.  Three years from now, In the 2021/22 season, the 76ers will have the contracts of Embiid ($31.5M), Simmons ($31.5M), Horford ($27.0M) and Tobias Harris ($36m est). 

That's a total of $126M tied up in four players:
- One of those guys (Embiid) has missed 252 games over 5 seasons (an average of 50 games per season)
- One of those guys (Horford) will be 36 years old and is probably a fringe-starter by this point
- One of those guys (Harris) when at his very best is a fringe All-Star
- One of these guys (Simmons) has immense talent but has shown limited progression, isn't an Alpha, and has a game that's clearly incompatible with Embiid's

They are taking a HUGE risk by effectively throwing all of their eggs in one basket in the desperate hope that Embiid can stay healthy nd develop as a leader, and that Simmons can develop a decent enough jump shot to be able to play alongside Embiid.  If they don't get to AT LEAST the eastern conference finals  either this year or next, then it'll be at least another 3 years before they will have the flexibility to make roster changes and try to compete again.

Re: Could Horford end up being the worst contract of offseason?
« Reply #36 on: July 17, 2019, 09:19:22 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Al Horford has the 23rd highest contract for the upcoming season, tied with Nikola Vucevic.  He probably is a bit worse than that as a player, but I'd say he should still have top 30ish impact when accounting for everything and he obviously is making more than anyone on a rookie scale contract. 

In 2020 without accounting for any new money (like say Anthony Davis), he has the 38th highest contract.  Again that doesn't seem that far off from where you would expect him to be especially without the rookie scale contracts.

In 2021 he is sitting at 28th.  By the time that season rolls around though he will be much lower than that after 2 more summers of new contracts. 

In 2022 (with all incentives), he is at 22nd.  That will obviously be much lower by the time the season rolls around, especially if he doesn't hit the incentives.

In other words, Horford is paid about where you would expect based on his perceived production.  This just seems like a case of not fully grasping just how much money players are making these days.  Everyone makes a ton of money.

Or if other people want to be equally as condescending as you we could just say this seems to be you not realizing how limited Horford is going to be at 33 and you fail to grasp the concept of aging? Maybe the board is better if you make the comments without your opinion of what people are grasping?

I would not have Horford close to 30 next year. He was not even In The conversation for being an all star in the east. He wouldn’t have been even whispered for conversation in the west. He also was significantly worse last year than the year prior and was noticeably banged up with concerns about his knee.

Re: Could Horford end up being the worst contract of offseason?
« Reply #37 on: July 17, 2019, 09:26:33 PM »

Online tazzmaniac

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Al Horford has the 23rd highest contract for the upcoming season, tied with Nikola Vucevic.  He probably is a bit worse than that as a player, but I'd say he should still have top 30ish impact when accounting for everything and he obviously is making more than anyone on a rookie scale contract. 

In 2020 without accounting for any new money (like say Anthony Davis), he has the 38th highest contract.  Again that doesn't seem that far off from where you would expect him to be especially without the rookie scale contracts.

In 2021 he is sitting at 28th.  By the time that season rolls around though he will be much lower than that after 2 more summers of new contracts. 

In 2022 (with all incentives), he is at 22nd.  That will obviously be much lower by the time the season rolls around, especially if he doesn't hit the incentives.

In other words, Horford is paid about where you would expect based on his perceived production.  This just seems like a case of not fully grasping just how much money players are making these days.  Everyone makes a ton of money.

I would respectfully disagree. 

Year one of year 1 of the contract is fine, and year 2 will probably be reasonable too.  But when he goes into year 3 and 4 at the age of 36 and 37 there's a good chance  that Philly will be paying all-star money for a guy who is playing a fringe-starter level.

I think Philly's screwed themselves in a huge way financially, and taken a MASSIVE risk in the desperate hope of winning a title in the next two seasons.

Lets look at it this way.  Three years from now, In the 2021/22 season, the 76ers will have the contracts of Embiid ($31.5M), Simmons ($31.5M), Horford ($27.0M) and Tobias Harris ($36m est). 

That's a total of $126M tied up in four players:
- One of those guys (Embiid) has missed 252 games over 5 seasons (an average of 50 games per season)
- One of those guys (Horford) will be 36 years old and is probably a fringe-starter by this point
- One of those guys (Harris) when at his very best is a fringe All-Star
- One of these guys (Simmons) has immense talent but has shown limited progression, isn't an Alpha, and has a game that's clearly incompatible with Embiid's

They are taking a HUGE risk by effectively throwing all of their eggs in one basket in the desperate hope that Embiid can stay healthy nd develop as a leader, and that Simmons can develop a decent enough jump shot to be able to play alongside Embiid.  If they don't get to AT LEAST the eastern conference finals  either this year or next, then it'll be at least another 3 years before they will have the flexibility to make roster changes and try to compete again.
Horford just turned 33 in June so in years 3 and 4 of his contract he will be 35 and 36. 
Embiid has played 63 and 64 regular season games the past two seasons.  Throwing in the 1st two seasons missed due to the foot injury suffered in college isn't meaningful.  Besides regular season games don't win you the championship, I expect they'll do a lot better job of load management to get Embiid healthy to the playoffs.  The Sixers arguably were a decent backup center from the finals and a possible championship and they've got much more than that in Horford now. 

The Sixers have done a great job at managing their cap space to maintain there flexibility but this was the time for them to commit.  What else were they supposed to do? Wait until next offseason when free agency is much weaker?   I don't see them finishing 1st in the East in the regular season but they are arguably the best playoff team in the East.  Simmons/Richardson/Harris/Horford/Embiid is a very strong starting lineup. 

Simmons and Embiid may not be a great fit but to say they are incompatible is way over blowing the fit issue.  Here are the Sixers numbers when they shared the court the past 2 seasons. 

                                   Min        OffRtg       DefRtg
Regular season 2019    1431   112.8   104.9
Playoffs 2019                283   112.5   93.0   
Regular season 2018    1306   113.3   97.8   
Playoffs 2018                198   104.4   103.2

Re: Could Horford end up being the worst contract of offseason?
« Reply #38 on: July 17, 2019, 09:35:47 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Also just for pointing out how laughably bad this Horford is a 30th best player in the nba

Davis
Embiid
Curry
Giannis
Jokic
Lebron
Leonard
George
Beal
Walker
Westbrook
Gobert
Klay Thompson
Irving
Harden
Towns
Draymond green
Durant
Simmons
Butler
Middleton
Griffin
Aldridge
Derozen
Lillard
Conley
Holiday
Porzingas
Oladipo

I mean we are already at basically 30 and we haven’t even approached a person that we could reasonably debate as worse than Horford. Than we have players all over the league that are barely debatable now like Tatum, Ingram, young, Bagley, Mitchell and doncic that will zoom past him if they haven’t already (also note that all the guys above except basically James and maybe one or two others are younger than Horford. Is he better than someone like Steve Adams or Myles turner? It’s certainly debatable and more so as Horford ages.  There is a very reasonable chance Horford is not a top 50 player over the next few seasons, in fact it is exceedingly likely. #contrariantakegonewrong



Re: Could Horford end up being the worst contract of offseason?
« Reply #39 on: July 17, 2019, 09:36:16 PM »

Offline Csfan1984

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It's front loaded and it was a rival so not seeing it as worst. Still not a great signing. But if they pull out a chip like Raps it's all worth it.

I will totally lose it if 76ers won right after Raps with then knowing KD and Irving are next problem in the East.

Re: Could Horford end up being the worst contract of offseason?
« Reply #40 on: July 17, 2019, 09:37:21 PM »

Offline footey

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This thread doesn’t get play if we signed Al on the same terms.

Sour grapes.

Re: Could Horford end up being the worst contract of offseason?
« Reply #41 on: July 17, 2019, 09:41:01 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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This thread doesn’t get play if we signed Al on the same terms.

Sour grapes.

I disagree. Al was who I wanted back the most but we were all saying 3 years for 60 to be more team friendly than his one year. I didn’t see anyone comfortable with 85 for 3 plus more guaranteed in 4th. Did you see that anywhere? I’m on here a lot

Re: Could Horford end up being the worst contract of offseason?
« Reply #42 on: July 17, 2019, 09:44:11 PM »

Offline ETNCeltics

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Al Horford has the 23rd highest contract for the upcoming season, tied with Nikola Vucevic.  He probably is a bit worse than that as a player, but I'd say he should still have top 30ish impact when accounting for everything and he obviously is making more than anyone on a rookie scale contract. 

In 2020 without accounting for any new money (like say Anthony Davis), he has the 38th highest contract.  Again that doesn't seem that far off from where you would expect him to be especially without the rookie scale contracts.

In 2021 he is sitting at 28th.  By the time that season rolls around though he will be much lower than that after 2 more summers of new contracts. 

In 2022 (with all incentives), he is at 22nd.  That will obviously be much lower by the time the season rolls around, especially if he doesn't hit the incentives.

In other words, Horford is paid about where you would expect based on his perceived production.  This just seems like a case of not fully grasping just how much money players are making these days.  Everyone makes a ton of money.

I would respectfully disagree. 

Year one of year 1 of the contract is fine, and year 2 will probably be reasonable too.  But when he goes into year 3 and 4 at the age of 36 and 37 there's a good chance  that Philly will be paying all-star money for a guy who is playing a fringe-starter level.

I think Philly's screwed themselves in a huge way financially, and taken a MASSIVE risk in the desperate hope of winning a title in the next two seasons.

Lets look at it this way.  Three years from now, In the 2021/22 season, the 76ers will have the contracts of Embiid ($31.5M), Simmons ($31.5M), Horford ($27.0M) and Tobias Harris ($36m est). 

That's a total of $126M tied up in four players:
- One of those guys (Embiid) has missed 252 games over 5 seasons (an average of 50 games per season)
- One of those guys (Horford) will be 36 years old and is probably a fringe-starter by this point
- One of those guys (Harris) when at his very best is a fringe All-Star
- One of these guys (Simmons) has immense talent but has shown limited progression, isn't an Alpha, and has a game that's clearly incompatible with Embiid's

They are taking a HUGE risk by effectively throwing all of their eggs in one basket in the desperate hope that Embiid can stay healthy nd develop as a leader, and that Simmons can develop a decent enough jump shot to be able to play alongside Embiid.  If they don't get to AT LEAST the eastern conference finals  either this year or next, then it'll be at least another 3 years before they will have the flexibility to make roster changes and try to compete again.
Horford just turned 33 in June so in years 3 and 4 of his contract he will be 35 and 36. 
Embiid has played 63 and 64 regular season games the past two seasons.  Throwing in the 1st two seasons missed due to the foot injury suffered in college isn't meaningful.  Besides regular season games don't win you the championship, I expect they'll do a lot better job of load management to get Embiid healthy to the playoffs.  The Sixers arguably were a decent backup center from the finals and a possible championship and they've got much more than that in Horford now. 

The Sixers have done a great job at managing their cap space to maintain there flexibility but this was the time for them to commit.  What else were they supposed to do? Wait until next offseason when free agency is much weaker?   I don't see them finishing 1st in the East in the regular season but they are arguably the best playoff team in the East.  Simmons/Richardson/Harris/Horford/Embiid is a very strong starting lineup. 

Simmons and Embiid may not be a great fit but to say they are incompatible is way over blowing the fit issue.  Here are the Sixers numbers when they shared the court the past 2 seasons. 

                                   Min        OffRtg       DefRtg
Regular season 2019    1431   112.8   104.9
Playoffs 2019                283   112.5   93.0   
Regular season 2018    1306   113.3   97.8   
Playoffs 2018                198   104.4   103.2
They’ll ‘do better’? 7 footers’ feet problems almost always get worse, not better. Philly had to give him multiple treatments every day for him to be able to play. His minutes per season likely aren’t going up.

And for all their D, they will struggle on offense. Jimmy Butler was their crunch time offense.

They’ll almost certainly be better than us, but they’re a flawed lineup that, imo, will fit worse than we did last year.


Re: Could Horford end up being the worst contract of offseason?
« Reply #43 on: July 17, 2019, 09:56:28 PM »

Offline Csfan1984

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This thread doesn’t get play if we signed Al on the same terms.

Sour grapes.

I disagree. Al was who I wanted back the most but we were all saying 3 years for 60 to be more team friendly than his one year. I didn’t see anyone comfortable with 85 for 3 plus more guaranteed in 4th. Did you see that anywhere? I’m on here a lot
I think Footey is right. It would have been 70/30 in favor of it being a good deal simply because Danny made the move and he is now a Celtic. All is right with everything the team does  ::) You could still probaly find a poster on here that prefers KO over Gianis lol

Re: Could Horford end up being the worst contract of offseason?
« Reply #44 on: July 17, 2019, 09:56:49 PM »

Offline liam

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Philly definitely overpaid Horford but they also took a main player away from a divisional rival so they killed two birds with one stone. It's an overpay but all in moves are always over pays. If it works out and they go to the finals, maybe it's an underpay.... The Raptors went all in last year with a really high pay roll and it paid off. I think Philly still lacks a go to scorer like they had in Butler last year or The Raps had in Kawhi.