What's with this slump?

[PhoSita]

Full disclosure: I attended the Dec 27 home game against Cleveland.

That was a super fun game.  The Celts dominated pretty much from the latter part of the 1st quarter through to the end.  Tatum and Brown each scored 30 points.  The Celts came away from that game with a 22-7 record.  There were a lot of things to feel good about from that one game and for the season as a whole to that point.

What's happened since then?  The Celts have played 11 games and gone 5-6. 

They've lost those 6 games by an average margin of -10.83 points. 


Am I responsible?  Did I make this happen?  Surely not.  But can it be ruled out?


Anyway, I find myself wondering what's going on.  Is there a consistent trend across this slump?


One is first quarters: 

36 to 25 against Toronto
26 to 17 against Washington
34 to 22 against San Antonio
36 to 20 against Milwaukee


Another is awful shooting / the other team getting really hot:

52.4% to 39.7% FG vs TOR
46.4% to 34.7% FG vs WAS
55.2% to 41.6% FG vs SAS
60.3% to 49.4% FG vs DET

51.6% to 30.6% 3P FG% vs MIL



That second one could have something to do with the fact that the games against Toronto, Philly, and Milwaukee were all the second night of a back to back.


Overall that's a major factor here: the Celts have played 11 games, 5 of them on the road, in a span of exactly 3 weeks.  They've basically played a game every other day.

This stretch feels worse because of how bad the losses have been, coupled with the fact that they've lost to three rivals in the conference (TOR, PHI, MIL), and their wins have come against a set of opponents (CHA, ATL, CHI, NOP) who have an average of 13.75 wins on the season.



So:

- Poor shooting
- Getting blitzed in 1st quarters
- Losing big to, for the most part, quality opponents
- Lots of games in a short time
- Time frame is end of the holidays through mid-January


The simple explanation here is that they're hitting a rough stretch of the schedule at the worst time.  They're tired and they've had guys in and out of the lineup with nagging injuries.


I'm not sure there's more to it than that.  I hope there's not more to it than that.


What am I missing?

[libermaniac]

I don’t know. I know they’ve been getting off to slow starts with their starters but the lack of a bench is going to kill them in the long run. Maybe their starters are getting worn down. Or maybe they are subconsciously pacing themselves early in games. They really need to trade for a vet or two who can hit some shots.

[iadera]

I don’t know. I know they’ve been getting off to slow starts with their starters but the lack of a bench is going to kill them in the long run. Maybe their starters are getting worn down. Or maybe they are subconsciously pacing themselves early in games. They really need to trade for a vet or two who can hit some shots.

Absolutely! What is our bench actually? Grant Williams? Semi? Wanamaker? There's no a single shooter on the bench.

That's one thing, the other one is Brad Stevens. I mean, your team ends every 1s q. in a deficit. What's wrong? Something mentaly is, for sure, but it's on Brad.

[LatterDayCelticsfan]

I don’t know. I know they’ve been getting off to slow starts with their starters but the lack of a bench is going to kill them in the long run. Maybe their starters are getting worn down. Or maybe they are subconsciously pacing themselves early in games. They really need to trade for a vet or two who can hit some shots.

Absolutely! What is our bench actually? Grant Williams? Semi? Wanamaker? There's no a single shooter on the bench.

That's one thing, the other one is Brad Stevens. I mean, your team ends every 1s q. in a deficit. What's wrong? Something mentaly is, for sure, but it's on Brad.

Not wanting to not pick but ordinarily Wanamaker has shot decent percentages from the field in his time in the NBA. Perhaps his slump has contributed to the bench struggling.

[iadera]

Last night (it's morning in my country now ) Bucks discovered us our possible problems in playoffs. The run that we made in a 3rd q. is on Bucks. Bucks (when they want) play on a level that makes us looking like a lottery team. The same will be with Sixers when playoffs come. We don't have enough weapon to beat them in 7 games.

[CelticsPoetry]

Last night (it's morning in my country now ) Bucks discovered us our possible problems in playoffs. The run that we made in a 3rd q. is on Bucks. Bucks (when they want) play on a level that makes us looking like a lottery team. The same will be with Sixers when playoffs come. We don't have enough weapon to beat them in 7 games.

Even though their defense was outstanding in the first half, it showed they can't keep up that level of effort through a whole game. Also, a LOT of their success was just getting unbelievably hot from 3. in the first half they were 12/14 or something like that.

[Celtics4ever]

There is a huge talent drop off when we go to our bench and when we have guys out we can't play starters with them to help them out as much.

[Birdman]

Worst bench in NBA

[Surferdad]

I'm not sure there's more to it than that.  I hope there's not more to it than that.

Yes there is, PhoSita: Your numbers show they have given up an average of 33 pts in 1st quarters across those 4 losses.  Since they don't have a true superstar to bail them out, Celtics HAVE TO play great defense and force easy transition buckets at the other end.  Then the question becomes, why the awful defense?  This is lack of effort, plain and simple.

[Celtics4ever]

Young guys on the team are prone to believing the hype and so are us fans.

[seancally]

Youngest team in the league so some inconsistency as a result. Hayward’s the guy who should be Mr Steady but he’s not there either. Loaded schedule lately and weak bench. Stevens won’t lean heavily on his starters during the regular season - guys play average 33-33mpg - and I agree with that but the crummy bench will expose that.

My hope: All Star break is a reset. We come out looking better and with more purpose. And Ainge consolidates some end of bench players / picks for a bench scorer of some kind. Beyond that... yeah, we still want Brown and Tatum to be All-Stars and they’re not quite there yet.

That’s not to say the team won’t still make a deep playoff run. But the recent issues are real, if fixable.

[ETNCeltics]

I keep seeing people blame the bench, but the bench bears very little blame in this. The starters are getting down double digits before a single reserve hits the floor.

Most obvious downturn offensively is Jaylen Brown. He was shooting 52% from the floor a few weeks ago, but he's shooting only 35% over the last several games. His confidence looks weak, he looks tentative with the ball in his hands. And that's to say nothing of Tatum's forced shots and Hayward's inconsistency.

Defensively, the starters #s speak for themselves. They're getting ran off the floor because they're regularly allowing opponents to shoot 50%+.

No, our problem isn't Kanter, Williams, Wannamaker, etc. Our problem is our big 5. They're not feeding off each other, not playing together, not playing Celtic basketball in any regard.

[PAOBoston]

It’s the first rough stretch of the season. Combination of busy schedule, injuries, and just shutting slumps. The bench has been and continues to be the team’s biggest weakness. They must have the worst producing bench in the league. I have faith the starters will get themselves going again but the bench is a mess. They need a veteran shooter who can get them some buckets.

[PhoSita]

Look, its easy to blame the bench guys.

But how does the bench explain the team getting bombarded in the first quarter of these games?

If you lose a game because of your bench, you would expect to get destroyed in the 2nd quarter and the late 3rd / early 4th.


Also, this team is built to be able to survive games where the bench doesn't produce much.  With Kemba, Tatum, Brown, and Hayward, they ought to be able to have at least two guys on the floor at all times who can create and score.  Not to mention Kanter, who is a decent scoring option against bench units.


It feels to me like the bench is an easy scapegoat here.

[Donoghus]

It’s the first rough stretch of the season. Combination of busy schedule, injuries, and just shutting slumps. The bench has been and continues to be the team’s biggest weakness. They must have the worst producing bench in the league. I have faith the starters will get themselves going again but the bench is a mess. They need a veteran shooter who can get them some buckets.

This.