Could Vince Carter Be a HoFer?

[guava_wrench]

So who's a current HoF among active players?

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/hof_prob_active.html

This is basketball referrence's list based on data mining how the HoF has selected players in the past. I think the list has solid locks until the 12th selection, which happens to be Vince Carter.

1. Shaquille O'Neal 1.0000
2. Kobe Bryant 0.9999
3. Tim Duncan 0.9998
4. Allen Iverson 0.9977
5. Kevin Garnett 0.9971
6. LeBron James 0.9801
7. Dwyane Wade 0.9758
8. Paul Pierce 0.9535
9. Dirk Nowitzki 0.9105
10. Jason Kidd 0.9073
11. Ray Allen 0.9072

12. Vince Carter 0.8662
13. Tracy McGrady 0.7476
14. Tony Parker 0.5183
15. Grant Hill 0.4794
16. Gilbert Arenas 0.4569
17. Chris Bosh 0.4305
18. Amare Stoudemire 0.4246
19. Carmelo Anthony 0.4078
20. Steve Nash 0.3654
21. Dwight Howard 0.2877
22. Pau Gasol 0.2361
23. Chauncey Billups 0.2162
24. Shawn Marion 0.2111
25. Elton Brand 0.1586
26. Antawn Jamison 0.0861
27. Carlos Boozer 0.0842

Of this list I think Pau Gasol and Nash are shoe ins (international guys), but none of the rest will make it currently. Obviously young guys like Melo/Howard have a lot of time to get there.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/hof_prob.html

The model's assumption is that anyone above .5 should be in and anyone below would be out. It was 96.5% accurate on the pool of players used to test it.



http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/hof_prob_career.html

No one with as high a score as VC has not made it. The highest score that isn't in the HOF is Jo Jo White at .82. Just eyeballing the chart, it appears that below .8 becomes more problematical and I'd expect that other factors would weigh in (especially for Nash). VC was certainly a spectacular offensive player, but I think he has a pretty bad reputation because of the way he left Toronto, his perceived selfishness, and his lackadaisical attitude toward defense. My gut says he needs to play well from now on out with ORL to get in because of these negative perceptions despite his offensive accomplishments.

BTW, according to the model, the Big 3 are all locks.

I would argue Tony Parker gets in, too, because of his contributions to three championship teams including Finals MVP.

I have a feeling Manu will eventually get in as well.

I don't see Parker getting in yet for the reason that he has never really been considered one of the top people at his position. He has a hard time making the all star game.

The only reason Parker shows up on that list is his rings, so he doesn't get extra consideration for that. It is already considered.

Still, Parker is young, and if he is highly productive, he could be worthy.

There is a chance Gasol could get more rings, and Gasol should continue to produce and make all star games for a while, so I can see him improving his score considerably.

[PosImpos]

Now, obviously this won't happen because the Celtics are just too good (tongue in cheek, tongue in cheek), but here's a hypothetical:

Vince Carter comes up big in the next two rounds and leads his team to an NBA Championship.  He wins Finals MVP.

Does he become a shoe-in for the Hall of Fame?

Actually, I would say yes.  If you look at his career stats, they are very comparable to Paul Pierce's stats.  Indeed, they're practically identical.  The only major difference in their resumes is that Pierce has led his team to a title (although with a lot of help), and Vince hasn't had any significant post-season success.  With a title on his resume, and especially a Finals MVP, I'd say Vince would be considered a future HoFer.  To put it simply, if Pierce is considered a future inductee, under those circumstances Vince would have to be as well.

What do you think?

Under your parameters, I'd say Yes. if ORL beats us, then play LA, first of all they'd better win.

All this being said - Yes Vince Carter would make it into the Hall of Fame. He would be the biggest addition to ORL and to me he would be the one who puts them over the top.

The man has improved his FG% this season, too. He nearly beat us by himself during that Christmas game. Hit some incredible shots.

But unfortunately that may not happen for him - because of Boston.

Yes, I hope the Celtics prevent Vince from reaching the Hall of Fame in one fell swoop.

[xmuscularghandix]

I think he already is a hall of famer. He's score 2,000+ three times, he's an 8 time All-Star, ROTY, two time All-NBA team. Then theres the fact that he's basically guaranteed to top 21,000.

That's a Hall of Famer to me.

[Roy Hobbs]

I think he already is a hall of famer. He's score 2,000+ three times, he's an 8 time All-Star, ROTY, two time All-NBA team. Then theres the fact that he's basically guaranteed to top 21,000.

That's a Hall of Famer to me.

It's the debate of empty stats versus being seen as a real contributor.  For better or for worse, winning matters in the HOF discussion, which is why Mitch Richmond hasn't gotten in yet.

To date, Vince Carter's biggest basketball contribution has been his dunks.  A history of losing mixed with his bad attitude leaves a bad taste in the mouths of voters.  However, if he is seen on a key piece of a championship team, I think it will solidify his chances (much like a championship did the same thing for Paul Pierce and Ray Allen).

[Fafnir]

I would argue Tony Parker gets in, too, because of his contributions to three championship teams including Finals MVP.

I have a feeling Manu will eventually get in as well.

Both will also have a leg up because they're foreign borne players. Though being primarily NBA players might temper that effect some.

i know is nba hof but sabonis deserves in too

Yes he does.

[ToppersBsktball10]

So who's a current HoF among active players?

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/hof_prob_active.html

This is basketball referrence's list based on data mining how the HoF has selected players in the past. I think the list has solid locks until the 12th selection, which happens to be Vince Carter.

1. Shaquille O'Neal 1.0000
2. Kobe Bryant 0.9999
3. Tim Duncan 0.9998
4. Allen Iverson 0.9977
5. Kevin Garnett 0.9971
6. LeBron James 0.9801
7. Dwyane Wade 0.9758
8. Paul Pierce 0.9535
9. Dirk Nowitzki 0.9105
10. Jason Kidd 0.9073
11. Ray Allen 0.9072

12. Vince Carter 0.8662
13. Tracy McGrady 0.7476
14. Tony Parker 0.5183
15. Grant Hill 0.4794
16. Gilbert Arenas 0.4569
17. Chris Bosh 0.4305
18. Amare Stoudemire 0.4246
19. Carmelo Anthony 0.4078
20. Steve Nash 0.3654
21. Dwight Howard 0.2877
22. Pau Gasol 0.2361
23. Chauncey Billups 0.2162
24. Shawn Marion 0.2111
25. Elton Brand 0.1586
26. Antawn Jamison 0.0861
27. Carlos Boozer 0.0842

Of this list I think Pau Gasol and Nash are shoe ins (international guys), but none of the rest will make it currently. Obviously young guys like Melo/Howard have a lot of time to get there.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/hof_prob.html

The model's assumption is that anyone above .5 should be in and anyone below would be out. It was 96.5% accurate on the pool of players used to test it.



http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/hof_prob_career.html

No one with as high a score as VC has not made it. The highest score that isn't in the HOF is Jo Jo White at .82. Just eyeballing the chart, it appears that below .8 becomes more problematical and I'd expect that other factors would weigh in (especially for Nash). VC was certainly a spectacular offensive player, but I think he has a pretty bad reputation because of the way he left Toronto, his perceived selfishness, and his lackadaisical attitude toward defense. My gut says he needs to play well from now on out with ORL to get in because of these negative perceptions despite his offensive accomplishments.

BTW, according to the model, the Big 3 are all locks.

I would argue Tony Parker gets in, too, because of his contributions to three championship teams including Finals MVP.

I have a feeling Manu will eventually get in as well.

Manu gets in because of what he's done of the international scale and the NBA. Remember it's the basketball hall of fame, not just the NBA. So I think Manu should be close to a sure thing.

[moiso]

I don't think Ginobilli or Parker should get in.  Good players with championships, but Parker isn't good enough and Ginobilli hasn't been healthy enough.

[Fafnir]

I don't think Ginobilli or Parker should get in.  Good players with championships, but Parker isn't good enough and Ginobilli hasn't been healthy enough.

I think Ginobli's health woes are being overstated, he's still played at an elite level for many years.

He just needs to continue to be the player he is through the rest of his current contract and he'll deserve to be in.

[moiso]

I don't think Ginobilli or Parker should get in.  Good players with championships, but Parker isn't good enough and Ginobilli hasn't been healthy enough.

I think Ginobli's health woes are being overstated, he's still played at an elite level for many years.

He just needs to continue to be the player he is through the rest of his current contract and he'll deserve to be in.

I don't know.  When healthy, I rank Manu almost right up there with Wade and Kobe.  He's an amazing player.  But I'm not sure if a guy who played 27min per game for his career with a 15/3/4 career stat line is going to make it.  Maybe my opinion would be a little different if he was healthy in the playoffs the two previous years to this one.

[xmuscularghandix]

I don't think Ginobilli or Parker should get in.  Good players with championships, but Parker isn't good enough and Ginobilli hasn't been healthy enough.

I think Ginobli's health woes are being overstated, he's still played at an elite level for many years.

He just needs to continue to be the player he is through the rest of his current contract and he'll deserve to be in.

I don't know.  When healthy, I rank Manu almost right up there with Wade and Kobe.  He's an amazing player.  But I'm not sure if a guy who played 27min per game for his career with a 15/3/4 career stat line is going to make it.  Maybe my opinion would be a little different if he was healthy in the playoffs the two previous years to this one.

Manu's only been in the league for like 7 years, if he can be 3/4 of what he has been for about 6 more... then i'll give it to him.

Oh and BTW I'll accept Tony Parker because of the championships and finals MVP as soon as Jo-Jo White gets put in... because that's one of the most ridiculous omissions from the hall right now.

[Roy Hobbs]

Let's hope that Vince's playoff legacy has been solidified as Nick Anderson 2.0.

[PosImpos]

Let's hope that Vince's playoff legacy has been solidified as Nick Anderson 2.0.

Put it this way...if Vince somehow manages to pull the Magic out of this one, he's a HoFer.

But I don't think he has what it takes.

[misha]

That was a classic VC tonight. Just how I like him

[Rondo_is_better]

Those free throws sure set his cause back.

VC tonight:

- "check out all these hard shots I'm taking!!11!!1oneone!"
- "OUCH my wrist!" (flops on the floor)
- "Don't make me shoot these!! PLEASE! Look at my face, do I look like I want to be responsible for the fate of our team?"

[nickagneta]

Them's some Hall of Fame free throws right there. Huh, Vince?


HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHA!!!!!!!!!!



Whenever Vince comes up for HOF consideration, video of the last minute and a half of this game should be shown.