Note - options on Amir and Jerebko due Thursday

[mmmmm]

I think you decline them, resign them on one year deals if you need to do so.  I can't imagine there will be a huge market out there for Amir Johnson and Jonas Jerebko.   Both might end up signing somewhere for less money than they'd make under current contracts. 

I don't think there is any metric that would suggest Amir was worth $12 mil last year and Jonas $8mil or whatever it was.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/amir-johnson/


Well, here's one such metric. By my eye test, Amir was our third best player last year. $12m/1yr is a bargain. Also, Jonas's contract is $5m, which is also easily worth it.

You have an interesting eye test. I thought that Thomas, Bradley, Crowder, and Turner were all better than Amir.

basketball-reference.com Win Shares metric agrees with loco_91's eye test:

Player         WS     WS/48
Thomas         9.7     .177
Crowder        7.3     .152
Johnson        5.8     .158
Bradley        4.8     .090
Sullinger      4.8     .121
Olynyk         4.1     .141
Turner         4.0     .085
Smart          2.9     .083
Jerebko        2.4     .097
Zeller         1.7     .114
...


Amir posted our 3rd highest Win Share total and at our 2nd highest rate.

[guava_wrench]

I don't understand why you are hung up on how the date is expressed.

The only thing that matters is that there is a date, after which if the player is still on the roster (i.e., he has not been terminated) then the non-guaranteed portion of the compensation that is conditional becomes vested.

There is a specified procedure for termination that all contracts conform to, and that includes first requesting waivers.  Until the player gets through waivers, his contract is not terminated.  So the important point is that he has to be put on waivers before that vesting date, if you are trying to get out of paying him the non-guaranteed money.

Here, I dug it up.  Section 16.f of

http://static.basket-infos.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/Contrat-NBA1.pdf

(f) If the Team proposes to terminate this Contract in accordance with subparagraph (a) of this paragraph 16, it must first comply with the following waiver procedure:
(i) The Team shall request the NBA Commissioner to request waivers from all other clubs. Such waiver request may not be withdrawn.
(ii) Upon receipt of the waiver request, any other team may claim assignment of this Contract at such waiver price as may be fixed by the League, the priority of claims to be determined in accordance with the NBA Constitution and By- Laws.
(iii) If this Contract is so claimed, the Team agrees that it shall, upon the assignment of this Contract to the claiming team, notify the Player of such assignment as provided in paragraph 10(c) hereof, and the Player agrees he shall report to the assignee team as provided in said paragraph 10(c).
(iv) If the Contract is not claimed prior to the expiration of the waiver period, it shall terminate and the Team shall promptly deliver written notice of termination to the Player.
A-10
(v) The NBA shall promptly notify the Players Association of the disposition of any waiver request.
(vi) To the extent not inconsistent with the foregoing provisions of this subparagraph (f), the waiver procedures set forth in the NBA Constitution and By-Laws, a copy of which, as in effect on the date of this Contract, is attached hereto, shall govern.
(g) Upon any termination of this Contract by the Player, all obligations of the Team to pay Compensation shall cease on the date of termination, except the obligation of the Team to pay the Player’s Compensation to said date.

I'm hung up on it because nothing addresses the specific scenario. All we have are assumptions based on somewhat similar situations but not really identical. Even through what you posted, which I had read prior to this, doesn't necessarily addresses the situation. I'm hung up on it because people who are quite adept at the CBA AND have access to how contracts are written say most contracts are worded in such a way that contradicts what it means of when a non-guaranteed contract becomes guaranteed (which at the same time I recognize might be at odds with what is said above). I get hung up on it because the CBA rules don't go into specifics on what AMENDMENTS can be included to the standard contracts and the nature of them, the specifics of them, and how they affect AND challenge the understanding of the paragraph above.

And I'm not really hung up on this per se. I'm just not ready to swear by as a definite something that is by it nature quite vague and unclear at the moment. With that in mind I simply lean into what local reporters say in part (since they had to get the "need to make decision by" from somewhere, sometimes likely from front office personnel) & from what seemingly quite a few CBA Gurus (though I lean on Pincus for this) I completely trust seem to say and insinuate.

Even if their interpretation is false, I also question if the date propagated IS the actual date of when the guaranteed contract is. Without seeing the specific contract, we don't know what date is mentioned in the contract. For all we know the contract could say July 10, but for simplicity the date that is leaked to the media is that of July 7 so that it's easy to digest the "by when a decision needs to be made". But again, this is even if I allow myself to side with your interpretation. And understand, I'm not dismissing it, I'm just not ready to blindly take it as definite when there are other experts of the CBA that seem to disagree with this assessment, particularly with non guarantees that have target dates instead of defaulting to January 10 (furthermore, dates that occur prior to the season starting and during free-agency period).

Anyways, all I've been trying to say is that let yourselves be open to the possibility that we don't have access to everything that may go on in a contract and for the possibility that there may be ways to make terms on a contract that challenges our previous understanding of what is declared in the CBA.

I suppose real live counter examples would be the way to resolve this. But where do you get that data?

[BudweiserCeltic]

I don't understand why you are hung up on how the date is expressed.

The only thing that matters is that there is a date, after which if the player is still on the roster (i.e., he has not been terminated) then the non-guaranteed portion of the compensation that is conditional becomes vested.

There is a specified procedure for termination that all contracts conform to, and that includes first requesting waivers.  Until the player gets through waivers, his contract is not terminated.  So the important point is that he has to be put on waivers before that vesting date, if you are trying to get out of paying him the non-guaranteed money.

Here, I dug it up.  Section 16.f of

http://static.basket-infos.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/Contrat-NBA1.pdf

(f) If the Team proposes to terminate this Contract in accordance with subparagraph (a) of this paragraph 16, it must first comply with the following waiver procedure:
(i) The Team shall request the NBA Commissioner to request waivers from all other clubs. Such waiver request may not be withdrawn.
(ii) Upon receipt of the waiver request, any other team may claim assignment of this Contract at such waiver price as may be fixed by the League, the priority of claims to be determined in accordance with the NBA Constitution and By- Laws.
(iii) If this Contract is so claimed, the Team agrees that it shall, upon the assignment of this Contract to the claiming team, notify the Player of such assignment as provided in paragraph 10(c) hereof, and the Player agrees he shall report to the assignee team as provided in said paragraph 10(c).
(iv) If the Contract is not claimed prior to the expiration of the waiver period, it shall terminate and the Team shall promptly deliver written notice of termination to the Player.
A-10
(v) The NBA shall promptly notify the Players Association of the disposition of any waiver request.
(vi) To the extent not inconsistent with the foregoing provisions of this subparagraph (f), the waiver procedures set forth in the NBA Constitution and By-Laws, a copy of which, as in effect on the date of this Contract, is attached hereto, shall govern.
(g) Upon any termination of this Contract by the Player, all obligations of the Team to pay Compensation shall cease on the date of termination, except the obligation of the Team to pay the Player’s Compensation to said date.

I'm hung up on it because nothing addresses the specific scenario. All we have are assumptions based on somewhat similar situations but not really identical. Even through what you posted, which I had read prior to this, doesn't necessarily addresses the situation. I'm hung up on it because people who are quite adept at the CBA AND have access to how contracts are written say most contracts are worded in such a way that contradicts what it means of when a non-guaranteed contract becomes guaranteed (which at the same time I recognize might be at odds with what is said above). I get hung up on it because the CBA rules don't go into specifics on what AMENDMENTS can be included to the standard contracts and the nature of them, the specifics of them, and how they affect AND challenge the understanding of the paragraph above.

And I'm not really hung up on this per se. I'm just not ready to swear by as a definite something that is by it nature quite vague and unclear at the moment. With that in mind I simply lean into what local reporters say in part (since they had to get the "need to make decision by" from somewhere, sometimes likely from front office personnel) & from what seemingly quite a few CBA Gurus (though I lean on Pincus for this) I completely trust seem to say and insinuate.

Even if their interpretation is false, I also question if the date propagated IS the actual date of when the guaranteed contract is. Without seeing the specific contract, we don't know what date is mentioned in the contract. For all we know the contract could say July 10, but for simplicity the date that is leaked to the media is that of July 7 so that it's easy to digest the "by when a decision needs to be made". But again, this is even if I allow myself to side with your interpretation. And understand, I'm not dismissing it, I'm just not ready to blindly take it as definite when there are other experts of the CBA that seem to disagree with this assessment, particularly with non guarantees that have target dates instead of defaulting to January 10 (furthermore, dates that occur prior to the season starting and during free-agency period).

Anyways, all I've been trying to say is that let yourselves be open to the possibility that we don't have access to everything that may go on in a contract and for the possibility that there may be ways to make terms on a contract that challenges our previous understanding of what is declared in the CBA.

I suppose real live counter examples would be the way to resolve this. But where do you get that data?

It'd be incredibly hard without access to contracts sadly. I was hoping that we might see how it transpired with the Jerebko & Amir situation, but didn't occur. And even if we find an example that adheres to the rules as some understand them, it doesn't necessarily invalidate the other POV.

So, for me personally, I'll always prepare for both scenarios (not that MY preparedness has any real impact lol).

I do hope a higher authority indeed clarifies, that's the best we can hope for.

[kozlodoev]

I think you decline them, resign them on one year deals if you need to do so.  I can't imagine there will be a huge market out there for Amir Johnson and Jonas Jerebko.   Both might end up signing somewhere for less money than they'd make under current contracts. 

I don't think there is any metric that would suggest Amir was worth $12 mil last year and Jonas $8mil or whatever it was.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/amir-johnson/


Well, here's one such metric. By my eye test, Amir was our third best player last year. $12m/1yr is a bargain. Also, Jonas's contract is $5m, which is also easily worth it.

You have an interesting eye test. I thought that Thomas, Bradley, Crowder, and Turner were all better than Amir.

basketball-reference.com Win Shares metric agrees with loco_91's eye test:

Player         WS     WS/48
Thomas         9.7     .177
Crowder        7.3     .152
Johnson        5.8     .158
Bradley        4.8     .090
Sullinger      4.8     .121
Olynyk         4.1     .141
Turner         4.0     .085
Smart          2.9     .083
Jerebko        2.4     .097
Zeller         1.7     .114
...


Amir posted our 3rd highest Win Share total and at our 2nd highest rate.

The metric also says that Olynyk was our fourth-best player, and that Zeller was better than Bradley, Smart, Turner, and Jerebko.

By the way, since you brought win shares up, can you actually explain in plain English how it is calculated?

[walker834]

As good as Amir is I'd still package him + Crowder and the nets picks in a heart beat if it equaled a max level center named Boogie.        I really like jerebko and think crowder is overvalued on this team.  He had some really good moments for us last year but  his trade value is about as high as it will get.

[mmmmm]

I think you decline them, resign them on one year deals if you need to do so.  I can't imagine there will be a huge market out there for Amir Johnson and Jonas Jerebko.   Both might end up signing somewhere for less money than they'd make under current contracts. 

I don't think there is any metric that would suggest Amir was worth $12 mil last year and Jonas $8mil or whatever it was.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/amir-johnson/


Well, here's one such metric. By my eye test, Amir was our third best player last year. $12m/1yr is a bargain. Also, Jonas's contract is $5m, which is also easily worth it.

You have an interesting eye test. I thought that Thomas, Bradley, Crowder, and Turner were all better than Amir.

basketball-reference.com Win Shares metric agrees with loco_91's eye test:

Player         WS     WS/48
Thomas         9.7     .177
Crowder        7.3     .152
Johnson        5.8     .158
Bradley        4.8     .090
Sullinger      4.8     .121
Olynyk         4.1     .141
Turner         4.0     .085
Smart          2.9     .083
Jerebko        2.4     .097
Zeller         1.7     .114
...


Amir posted our 3rd highest Win Share total and at our 2nd highest rate.

The metric also says that Olynyk was our fourth-best player, and that Zeller was better than Bradley, Smart, Turner, and Jerebko.

By the way, since you brought win shares up, can you actually explain in plain English how it is calculated?

Actually, it says that Olynyk produced Win Shares at our 4th highest rate.  That's not the same as saying he was our fourth best player.   And it says that Zeller produced Win Shares at a higher rate than Bradley, Smart, Turner and Jerebko.  It doesn't say he was better than those four players.

Rate is important to include for the same reason efficiency is relevant with any accrued measure.  Knowing a player scored 30 points per game is one thing, but if he took 60 shots to do so, it would be less impressive.  But at the same time, rate by itself is not sufficient.  Jordan Mickey's 15.1% BLK% makes him a god among men ... except he only played a total of 57 minutes and blocked a grand total of 11 shots.   Maybe we should hold off on giving him the DPOY award just yet.

Both the total WS accrual as well as the rate should be considered when looking at Win Shares.  A player could have a high rate (Zeller) but didn't get on the floor a lot and didn't accrue as much total value as other players who maybe didn't have as high a rate.  On the flip side, a player like Turner played a lot of minutes and accrued a fair amount of value, but he didn't do it at a very good efficiency, relative to his teammates.

Returning this to Amir Johnson:  He not only accrued a high total of Win Shares, he did so efficiently, not just by playing a ton of minutes.   Considering both accrual and rate, it is pretty clear that the Win Shares metric looks pretty favorably on his performance.

A result that is in very good correlation with both loco_91's "eye test" and with the valuation that fivethirtyeight.com arrived at.

As to your last question: Is your implication that whether the calculation is explainable in "plain English" makes it more or less credible or relevant?

The following is written in plain English:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ws.html

It is not short and concise.   It is verbose and technical.  But it is plain English.  It is not difficult to understand.

[mmmmm]

As good as Amir is I'd still package him + Crowder and the nets picks in a heart beat if it equaled a max level center named Boogie.        I really like jerebko and think crowder is overvalued on this team.  He had some really good moments for us last year but  his trade value is about as high as it will get.

I'd definitely be fine with shipping Amir and other stuff to get Boogie.  And if I had too, I'd include Crowder.   But I'd prefer to NOT include Crowder in such a trade, since we are fairly thin at the '4/3 swing' position.   Yes, JJ can sorta handle it but he's more '4' and most of the time we need more '3' out of that spot.   And Jaylen is too young right now.