I like the Kyle Lowry comparison I heard from our own member Kane.
Tp.
I think a little bit better version of Lowry is realistic and probably where he ends up. I saw tyreke as a floor. I'm optimistic for a more dedicated and maybe less flashy version of baron Davis.
Like baron he is coming into the league with lots of criticism about his shot. However also like baron he's a flat out bullie. He physically overpowers players at his position and he can get to the basket consistently without being overly explosive.
Scouting report of b diddy from 1999 before the draft. Honestly it's identical to smart.
Baron Davis - UCLA. 6'2" 190. Baron has the strongest will that I've seen recently in college basketball. He is very emotional, which can go either way. Sometimes he'll carry a team on his back, simply refusing to lose, - and sometimes he'll get carried away and lose his cool (Alonzo style). That having been said, he is still a rare find because he is a point guard that can handle and push the tempo like Jason Kidd. Baron also moves well without the ball. His jumper is suspect. He is a 60% free throw shooter that shot 34% from beyond the college arc. I question his ability to hit the NBA three. Had ACL surgery in March `98. It is worth repeating that Baron has a super-super strong will. I wouldn't rule out anything with Davis, either good or bad because he's so stubborn.
http://www.basslinespin.com/nbadraftreport.htm
Cool link on the 1999 draft. (Steve Francis, Lamar odom, Elton brand, Shawn Marion, artest, jet, rip etc.)
I don't think the Baron Davis comparison works for a few reasons.
Firstly Smart hasn't been a great outside shooter, but he's been a very solid free throw shooter. That usually suggests decent form and the potential to be a good (or at least decent) shooter. Baron Davis was a pretty shocking free throw shooter most of his career.
Secondly I think Smart is more mentally focussed then Davis ever was. People read too much into the one single incident where Smart lost his cool in College. Overall everything that I've seen indicates that he is a very modest guy with an incredible work ethic who always puts the team first, and that he demonstrates great maturity and self control. I don't think Baron Davis was ever that level headed.
Thirdly Davis was a decent defender, but I don't think he was ever as dominant defensively as Smart has shown he can be.
I also think that Davis was more athletic - he was a hell of a leaper and I think he was quicker and more explosive than Smart.
Also Baron Davis was a borderline-elite passer and playmaker. From memory he averaged 8+ assists a few seasons during his prime. I don't see Smart becoming that calibre of playmaker. Davis was generally more of a pure PG, while Smart is a combo guard who leans more towards the PG spot.
I do think Tyreke Evans (as others have suggested) is a pretty good comparison in terms of pure skill set and physical attributes. Similar size, strength, both are very good (but not elite) rebounders and passers, both are very good at attacking the basket, scoring at the rim and getting to the line. Both are unspectacular shooters. The key difference I see here is personality - Tyreke has been criticised quite a bit for his attitude, while for Smart I think his personality (attitude, motor and work ethic) are among his greatest assets. Tyreke's attitude issues (and lack of development) also wouldn't have been helped by the fact that he played for the Kings, who (up until the last season or so) have been famous for their inability to develop talented players. Tyreke has averaged around 18/5/5 for pretty much his entire career and I have little doubt that he would have developed in to a sure-fire all star if he was drafted by somebody like the Celtics, Spurs, Heat or Lakers rather than the Kings. The other big thing that Smart has over Tyreke is defence. I feel Tyreke has always been a decent defender and I think he has had the tools to be a great one, but he's just never realised that potential. I think Smart is already an excellent defender at the NBA level, and will develop in to an elite one.
I can see Marcus Smart developing in to a guy averaging absolute worst-case of 15/4/4 and with a ceiling of maybe 20/5/7, while also making All-Defensive teams on a consistent basis.
The other guy I can see Smart comparing nicely to is Dwyane Wade. Smart is practically a clone of Wade physically (both around 6'4" and 225lbs with a long wingspan). Offensively Smart has a very similar game to Wade - inconsistent jump shot and weak three point shot (but can still hit them if left open), very good at scoring around the basket, very good at drawing contact and getting to the line, solid three point shooter. Almost an identical profile as far as scoring goes.
Wade's offensive dominance (plus his good size) saw him at the SG spot most of his career, but he was always a solid passer and playmaker. He played PG quite a bit early in his career and was pretty good at it, averaging around 7 APG for a few seasons there. I think that again, the same can be said for Smart. I think he'll be seen more as a PG early in his career because of his leadership, passing and court vision, but he's not the type of elite passer (Nash, Rondo, Paul, Deron) that will give you 8-10 assists per game. I think has his scoring game develops you'll find his scoring contributes more than his passing, and I think he'll end up spending a lot of time at the SG spot. As far as playmaking goes though, I think he's right about on par with a rookie Wade.
Same with ball handling. Wade was never an elite ball handler, but he was a decent enough ball handler that he could man the PG spot without much trouble. I think the same is true for Smart - he's not going to break many ankles, but he won't bounce many off his foot either.
Both guys are very good rebounders for their size / position. Wade was up around 5 rebounds a game as a rookie and I think Smart will be up around there too.
Defensively, Wade was an absolute beast early in his career, just as Smart is now. Injuries had seen Wade age sooner than he should have and he's nowhere near the defender now that he once was, but that's another area where the comparison works.
Finally, mentality. Wade and Smart have almost identical personalities. Wade was always a natural born leader, a warrior, and tough as nails. He used his size and strength to dominate smaller guys, he was a killer in the clutch, and he always had that 'killer instinct'. I think Smart has all of that.
Where the two guys may vary some is that I do think Wade was more explosive when he came in to the league than Smart is, but aside from that I think Smart is about as much of a Dwyane Wade clone as you'll find.
Wade's stats in his final college season:
21.5 PTS
6.3 REB
4.4 AST
2.2 STL
1.3 BLK
3.2 TO
50% FG
32% 3PT
78% FT
Smart's stats in his final college season:
18 PTS
5.9 REB
4.8 AST
2.9 STL
0.6 BLK
2.6 TO
42% FG
30% 3PT
73% FT
Obviously the big numbers that stand out as different are Wade's scoring (+ 3.5 PPG) and FG% (+ 0.80) which is why I don't expect Smart to become the same dominant 25 PPG scorer that Wade has been...but aside from that there stats are pretty similar.
For Smart to evolve in to a poor-man's Wade (basically the same player but topping out at 21 PPG and with less efficient scoring) is I think very realistically possible.