Who makes the biggest sacrifice in scoring?

[nickagneta]

No one has to sacrifice. Horford/Rozier/Morris aren’t here any more. That’s like 30 shot attempts that basically get spread to those guys because the rest of the team can’t create offense we’ll individually. I fully expect all these guys to have good years.

Kanter shoots more often than any of those guys, in terms of usage.

Not saying there will be an issue with our primary guys, but I hope Kanter dials it back a bit. It's really my only concern on this issue of whether the top 4 get enough shots.

I do agree about all of them having good years, I think we will exceed expectations, at least relative to the doom-and-gloomers.

I haven't looked it up but aren't a lot of kanter's shots putbacks from rb? if they were, that wouldn't be taking shots, that would just be him getting extra shots that we weren't getting last season.

Per-36 he averages about 5 OR and 15 FGA, so he's shooting at many other times.

For comparison Horford, the guy he replaces, has been at around 2 OR and 11 FGA per-36.

The per36 isn't good to look at as Kanter is pretty much a 24 mpg player and always has been. Over the last few years he has been a 10 FGA and 3.5 ORB per game player. I can't find anything that tells me how many shots of his are from offensive rebound putbacks, but if we assume 2 FGA of his were from offensive rebounds, that means Kanter takes about 8 FGAs a game that are in the flow of the offense.

That to me says he doesn't have to be fed a lot and won't greatly affect the shots the other starters would be taking. As I had said earlier in the thread, 71 shots from the top 5 guys, 10 for Kanter, leaves a whole lot of shots for Kema, Gordon and the Jays to split up. Besides those five and Smart, I don't see any other players having more than 4 or 5 FGAs per game.

[slamtheking]

So we have 4 guys on this roster who could all average pretty good scoring numbers if given a high enough usage rate. They could fill the role of primary scoring option if you needed them too.

But like we’ve seen on other talented teams, when you have a bunch of superstars, it seems like the optimal choice is to have 3 main scorers. This means someone among Kemba/Brown/Tatum/Hayward is likely going to end up being a Draymond, a JR Smith, a Chalmers, etc.

I would think Kemba/Tatum/Hayward are going to be our best players next year, but I really can’t imagine Brown continuing to settle for that distant 4th role. So is it Hayward? While Hayward would be a great facilitator, I think it’d be crazy if he wasn’t one of our top scoring options too. I mean, he’s not really a point guard out there. He just makes a lot of right reads but he’s at his best when he’s a threat to score.

That said, I think the worst outcome would be if the coaching staff tries to get these guys to spread the wealth too thinly again like last year, which reduces everyone’s effectiveness on offense.

I figure between the 4 of them, they'll average about 80-85 points by the end of the year with the rest of the team chipping in 20-23 points on average. 

Kemba and Hayward (assuming he's back in a major way) will both probably be a bit over 20 each and Brown and Tatum somewhere between 15-18 each.   no particular order on who scores more per game.  if they don't get an average over 80 per game between the 4 of them, either someone else stepped up significantly with scoring or we're in a world of hurt trying to score.

[Silky]

So we have 4 guys on this roster who could all average pretty good scoring numbers if given a high enough usage rate. They could fill the role of primary scoring option if you needed them too.

But like we’ve seen on other talented teams, when you have a bunch of superstars, it seems like the optimal choice is to have 3 main scorers. This means someone among Kemba/Brown/Tatum/Hayward is likely going to end up being a Draymond, a JR Smith, a Chalmers, etc.

I would think Kemba/Tatum/Hayward are going to be our best players next year, but I really can’t imagine Brown continuing to settle for that distant 4th role. So is it Hayward? While Hayward would be a great facilitator, I think it’d be crazy if he wasn’t one of our top scoring options too. I mean, he’s not really a point guard out there. He just makes a lot of right reads but he’s at his best when he’s a threat to score.

That said, I think the worst outcome would be if the coaching staff tries to get these guys to spread the wealth too thinly again like last year, which reduces everyone’s effectiveness on offense.

I figure between the 4 of them, they'll average about 80-85 points by the end of the year with the rest of the team chipping in 20-23 points on average. 

Kemba and Hayward (assuming he's back in a major way) will both probably be a bit over 20 each and Brown and Tatum somewhere between 15-18 each.   no particular order on who scores more per game.  if they don't get an average over 80 per game between the 4 of them, either someone else stepped up significantly with scoring or we're in a world of hurt trying to score.

for the future of the franchise, Tatum needs be be getting more than 15-18. Same with Jaylen.

[slamtheking]

So we have 4 guys on this roster who could all average pretty good scoring numbers if given a high enough usage rate. They could fill the role of primary scoring option if you needed them too.

But like we’ve seen on other talented teams, when you have a bunch of superstars, it seems like the optimal choice is to have 3 main scorers. This means someone among Kemba/Brown/Tatum/Hayward is likely going to end up being a Draymond, a JR Smith, a Chalmers, etc.

I would think Kemba/Tatum/Hayward are going to be our best players next year, but I really can’t imagine Brown continuing to settle for that distant 4th role. So is it Hayward? While Hayward would be a great facilitator, I think it’d be crazy if he wasn’t one of our top scoring options too. I mean, he’s not really a point guard out there. He just makes a lot of right reads but he’s at his best when he’s a threat to score.

That said, I think the worst outcome would be if the coaching staff tries to get these guys to spread the wealth too thinly again like last year, which reduces everyone’s effectiveness on offense.

I figure between the 4 of them, they'll average about 80-85 points by the end of the year with the rest of the team chipping in 20-23 points on average. 

Kemba and Hayward (assuming he's back in a major way) will both probably be a bit over 20 each and Brown and Tatum somewhere between 15-18 each.   no particular order on who scores more per game.  if they don't get an average over 80 per game between the 4 of them, either someone else stepped up significantly with scoring or we're in a world of hurt trying to score.

for the future of the franchise, Tatum needs be be getting more than 15-18. Same with Jaylen.

in another year or two, sure.  but next year we have an established all-star in Kemba who's going to get his points as well as a hopefully recovered Hayward who's going to put up more shots.  If those 2 are playing/scoring well, I'm fine with the J's having another year to develop before having to be depended upon as the primary scoring workhorses for the team.  I'm more concerned with the offense running well than who's getting the most points.

[fairweatherfan]

4th option will be either Jaylen or Hayward. I wouldn't be shocked if either of them outscored Tatum (especially Hayward) but I can't see both of them doing it. Kemba will probably be the #1 scorer but it's also plausible Tatum catches him.

[Spicoli]

I think Walker, Tatum, Hayward, and Brown can spread the wealth just fine as long as the 5th starter doesn't require shots/any plays being ran for him. This is why i advocate for Williams starting. He would be in there strictly for rebounding and blocking shots. There needs to be at least 1 guy in the starting lineup who protects the rim, otherwise this team will give up 120 points a night. I know Kanter has the most experience but it would be a mistake to start him (since he's primarily another offensive player). This team needs more balance on the floor or else other teams will light them up.

[ozgod]

4th option will be either Jaylen or Hayward. I wouldn't be shocked if either of them outscored Tatum (especially Hayward) but I can't see both of them doing it. Kemba will probably be the #1 scorer but it's also plausible Tatum catches him.

People underestimate Hayward scoring...he's capable of some big nights. Even last season he had 3 games of 30+ points, which is more than anyone else on the team other than Kyrie. He also had 26 30+ scoring games in Utah in just his last 3 years with them. The problem last season is he also had 30+ games where he scored single digits. He's capable of scoring, but I'm guessing what happens this season is he averages somewhere in the 15-17ppg with the occasional big night, and continues to be the main facilitator of the offense and helps others score, particularly with the departure of Al. Tatum on the other hand will probably carry the bulk of the scoring along with Kemba. I haven't yet seen Tatum really grab hold of a game and dominate it. He's only scored over 30 once in his career. I'm sure he will get his opportunities this season, along with JT. Kanter will be good for 10-12 ppg on average, mainly on putbacks.

I made a table of our team's top six scoring spread last season. All data from Basketball Reference.



What I really, REALLY hope for this season is that they all learn from last season - being unselfish leads to better shots for everyone. Too much iso and trying to "get my shots" leads to disaster more often than not if it's done at the wrong time. Having people singlemindedly focused on "I'm going to be an All Star, I'm going to average 20+" is good as long as it doesn't lead to selfishness and failure to put the team first. If JT averages 30, makes the All Star team but our team doesn't make it out of the first round of the playoffs then I will be disappointed.

[SHAQATTACK]

kanter does the things to score that have almost become a forgotten ancient bb technology since the arrival of Stevens and ultra small ball.   

I like his shots ....they are close in , score off missed bricks .  Put backs , punishing guys inside . 

he is not the type of guy to use up other guys shots .  Kanter can clean up those brick layers mess.   


Hayward should be the alpha , grabbing the ball , leading the offense , not standing around making no impact ...he is paid way to much not to force his will on the offensive side of things.  He is walking a fine line right off the bat , no more maybe this or maybe that from his play

[Spicoli]

4th option will be either Jaylen or Hayward. I wouldn't be shocked if either of them outscored Tatum (especially Hayward) but I can't see both of them doing it. Kemba will probably be the #1 scorer but it's also plausible Tatum catches him.

People underestimate Hayward scoring...he's capable of some big nights. Even last season he had 3 games of 30+ points, which is more than anyone else on the team other than Kyrie. He also had 26 30+ scoring games in Utah in just his last 3 years with them. The problem last season is he also had 30+ games where he scored single digits. He's capable of scoring, but I'm guessing what happens this season is he averages somewhere in the 15-17ppg with the occasional big night, and continues to be the main facilitator of the offense and helps others score, particularly with the departure of Al. Tatum on the other hand will probably carry the bulk of the scoring along with Kemba. I haven't yet seen Tatum really grab hold of a game and dominate it. He's only scored over 30 once in his career. I'm sure he will get his opportunities this season, along with JT. Kanter will be good for 10-12 ppg on average, mainly on putbacks.

I made a table of our team's top six scoring spread last season. All data from Basketball Reference.



What I really, REALLY hope for this season is that they all learn from last season - being unselfish leads to better shots for everyone. Too much iso and trying to "get my shots" leads to disaster more often than not if it's done at the wrong time. Having people singlemindedly focused on "I'm going to be an All Star, I'm going to average 20+" is good as long as it doesn't lead to selfishness and failure to put the team first. If JT averages 30, makes the All Star team but our team doesn't make it out of the first round of the playoffs then I will be disappointed.

I've seen a couple games where he starts out on fire and then Stevens pulls him out in order to not deviate from his robotic substitution patterns. Tatum is probably a rhythm player and it's hard to keep your rhythm and stay on fire even after getting pulled out and put back in like a Yo-Yo.