Author Topic: Making Sense of this Season by Finding Player Equivalents  (Read 2930 times)

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Re: Making Sense of this Season by Finding Player Equivalents
« Reply #15 on: March 24, 2019, 10:45:25 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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You literally took their stats from 71 games into the season and used those stats to demonstrate that they were never as talented as we thought heading into the season.


It would make more sense to look at their stats from last season or the season or two before that and ask what would be a reasonable expectation for individual production and overall team production given that talent.


My point is, saying the players are underachieving statistically isn't an explanation for the cause of the underachievement, and that's sort of what you're doing here.
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Re: Making Sense of this Season by Finding Player Equivalents
« Reply #16 on: March 24, 2019, 11:00:33 PM »

Offline tenn_smoothie

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I fully agree that Stevens has struggled this year - I have said for 3 years now that he is - for whatever reason - reticent to be tough with his players. Also, this team is unlike any that Stevens has coached in college or pros. Not sure he felt comfortable with this group from the beginning - remember how undisciplined and out-of-control they were in pre-season ? Will he grow and improve ? Who can say ?

I think one major factor missing from your comparisons is the mental aspect of players and the team as a unit. I believe that has been the biggest reason for our struggles. Whatever is going on with these guys, we don't know for sure - but they are not together this season, they are not consistently focused, not consistently energetic and active, they do not gel as a unit and they don't enjoy playing together - no question. There are chemistry issues beyond Brad Stevens.

When those type of factors are involved, players simply do not play up to their normal ability. I believe Jayson Tatum has been most adversely affected by the trade rumors/off-court drama that has plagued this group most of the season. If Danny can figure out the right pieces to keep and the right pieces to let go, I think we would see dramatic improvement in consistency and effort from our Celtics next year.
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Re: Making Sense of this Season by Finding Player Equivalents
« Reply #17 on: March 25, 2019, 12:59:23 AM »

Offline LarBrd33

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You literally took their stats from 71 games into the season and used those stats to demonstrate that they were never as talented as we thought heading into the season.

As opposed to what... taking their stats from 13 playoff games to demonstrate that they are more talented than we know them to be after 71 games?

It's a 1-star team and Brad actually deserves a lot of credit for even getting this group to the playoffs this year considering teams with multiple stars like the Thunder have an identical record.

It's neat that Brad was able to get a group of non-stars to make noise in the playoffs last year, but talent is talent and mediocrity caught up to us this season.  When I look at a team like the Pacers fully in "Next Man Up" mode right now doing their own overachieving, I'd caution their fans to be careful about setting their expectations too high for next season when they "add" a star in Oladipo to a 50+ win team.   Boston's proof that you can't overachieve forever.

Re: Making Sense of this Season by Finding Player Equivalents
« Reply #18 on: March 25, 2019, 08:08:26 AM »

Offline mobilija

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Pho’s point is a valid one. You took the stats of the team over their season to explain they are statistically where they should be this season. It’s like using a known to prove that very same known. Perhaps if you took their career stats and used different players with similar skill sets at the same point in their career trajectory it would make more sense. Idk, seems like a lot of work tho. Especially just for the purpose of saying this team is not underachieving.

The bar got raised for this team when they did well. It’s not surprising people were excited and expected them to do just as well if not better this season. Pretty normal human reaction. People are gonna be disappointed, especially given the way this team has performed. Not just the numbers but the lack of effort, intelligence and chemistry. Not a great entertainment product. If they had the same record but were fighting tooth and nail and losses were due to a bad bounce or amazing buzzer beaters from opposing teams, fans wouldn’t be quiting on this team.

Re: Making Sense of this Season by Finding Player Equivalents
« Reply #19 on: March 25, 2019, 01:57:51 PM »

Offline Big333223

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Pho’s point is a valid one. You took the stats of the team over their season to explain they are statistically where they should be this season. It’s like using a known to prove that very same known. Perhaps if you took their career stats and used different players with similar skill sets at the same point in their career trajectory it would make more sense. Idk, seems like a lot of work tho. Especially just for the purpose of saying this team is not underachieving.

The bar got raised for this team when they did well. It’s not surprising people were excited and expected them to do just as well if not better this season. Pretty normal human reaction. People are gonna be disappointed, especially given the way this team has performed. Not just the numbers but the lack of effort, intelligence and chemistry. Not a great entertainment product. If they had the same record but were fighting tooth and nail and losses were due to a bad bounce or amazing buzzer beaters from opposing teams, fans wouldn’t be quiting on this team.

This.

No one is saying, "Based on the way they played this season, their record should be better." Everyone understands that the record accurately reflects the play on the court.

What people are actually saying is, "Based on the talent that they have, which is demonstrated by how they played in previous seasons, they should've played better and had a better record this year." Which I think is true.
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Re: Making Sense of this Season by Finding Player Equivalents
« Reply #20 on: March 25, 2019, 02:52:45 PM »

Offline CF033

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The Celtics' issues (IMO) are more about chemistry, effort and roster makeup than talent. If Ainge weren't hording assets for a push at AD in the offseason I'm pretty sure he would've dealt some of these guys at the trade deadline to fix some of the logjam problems we have going on.

Re: Making Sense of this Season by Finding Player Equivalents
« Reply #21 on: March 25, 2019, 02:59:06 PM »

Offline Triplenickle

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How many years did Shaq and Kobe play together before they became a championship team again?

5?

So where's our Shaq?

Re: Making Sense of this Season by Finding Player Equivalents
« Reply #22 on: March 25, 2019, 03:04:56 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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What people are actually saying is, "Based on the talent that they have, which is demonstrated by how they played in previous seasons, they should've played better and had a better record this year."

Which is false.  There's no reason to believe anyone on this team can consistently play at a star level other than Kyrie Irving... thus, 43 wins makes plenty of sense.  It's a Top 25 player + a bunch of guys who range from role player to fringe star at most.   You should not expect a team of Lillard/Gay/Gasol to win more than 43-48... and you shouldn't expect a team of Kyrie/Tatum/Horford to win more than 43-48.

This season was built on a false premise that we'd be world-beaters, because Kyrie, Hayward, Tatum, Brown and Horford were all all-star level players.  Time to kill that premise.  It's not accurate.  It's based on nothing of value.  It's like arguing that Jae Crowder and Avery Bradley are all-star level players, because they helped us get to the ECF.  Time to be big boys about this and be honest.

Re: Making Sense of this Season by Finding Player Equivalents
« Reply #23 on: March 25, 2019, 03:10:18 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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The Celtics' issues (IMO) are more about chemistry, effort and roster makeup than talent. If Ainge weren't hording assets for a push at AD in the offseason I'm pretty sure he would've dealt some of these guys at the trade deadline to fix some of the logjam problems we have going on.
This.

the trade deadline reeked of Danny holding off on any trades to contend this season with the expectation he'd need everything he had to make a run at AD.  At the time I advocated keeping Rozier and Morris for playoff depth rather than trading them just to get something for them before losing them in free agency.  Hindsight being 20/20, seeing how bad the team has performed since the AD fiasco I'd have preferred Danny move Rozier and/or Morris for a player under contract for next year that would have been salary filler for the deal so we could hang on to Smart (at least for the purpose of not having to include him to make salaries match).

Re: Making Sense of this Season by Finding Player Equivalents
« Reply #24 on: March 25, 2019, 03:20:55 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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What people are actually saying is, "Based on the talent that they have, which is demonstrated by how they played in previous seasons, they should've played better and had a better record this year."

Which is false.  There's no reason to believe anyone on this team can consistently play at a star level other than Kyrie Irving... thus, 43 wins makes plenty of sense.  It's a Top 25 player + a bunch of guys who range from role player to fringe star at most.   You should not expect a team of Lillard/Gay/Gasol to win more than 43-48... and you shouldn't expect a team of Kyrie/Tatum/Horford to win more than 43-48.

This season was built on a false premise that we'd be world-beaters, because Kyrie, Hayward, Tatum, Brown and Horford were all all-star level players.  Time to kill that premise.  It's not accurate.  It's based on nothing of value.  It's like arguing that Jae Crowder and Avery Bradley are all-star level players, because they helped us get to the ECF.  Time to be big boys about this and be honest.


As is so often the case, you decide on a narrative for your post and fit the details to that narrative irrespective of the logical and statistical flaws that people point out with your methods.

Okay, cool. You've got your conclusion all made up.

I don't find it particularly interesting or insightful. Others have suggested they agree.


You can actually grapple with the difficult questions to advance discussion, or you can throw up your hands and say things like "time to be big boys and be honest."

Seems you've made your choice on that one.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
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Re: Making Sense of this Season by Finding Player Equivalents
« Reply #25 on: March 25, 2019, 03:41:29 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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"The stats through 71 games show that the players were not as talented as everybody thought."

"The players are not as talented as everybody thought, which is why the stats are not as good as expected."

See the problem?

This only works if we assume that the only input that matters in determining the stats that a player puts up in a season is how talented they are.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
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Re: Making Sense of this Season by Finding Player Equivalents
« Reply #26 on: March 25, 2019, 03:54:40 PM »

Offline mbsnmisc

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How many years did Shaq and Kobe play together before they became a championship team again?

5?

So where's our Shaq?

I don't know if you are implying that Kyrie is our Kobe, but if you are I strongly disagree. Kobe was an order of magnitude better than Irving. Kobe was 15X All NBA. Kyrie is in his prime and has made third team once.

Re: Making Sense of this Season by Finding Player Equivalents
« Reply #27 on: March 25, 2019, 04:11:57 PM »

Offline Triplenickle

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How many years did Shaq and Kobe play together before they became a championship team again?

5?

So where's our Shaq?

I don't know if you are implying that Kyrie is our Kobe, but if you are I strongly disagree. Kobe was an order of magnitude better than Irving. Kobe was 15X All NBA. Kyrie is in his prime and has made third team once.

Nah, my premise is why get so down about the season when basically Tatum and JB haven't even got 2 years together under their belts.

And that no matter the talent a team has to learn how to be championship caliber.

These young guys are not even close to being disappointing in my book, and I have never thought one time Kyrie and Gordon was what this team needed. Kyrie maybe mesmerizing to some, but to me he's not even a point guard on Kevin johnson's level.

I don't get the fanaticism about him, or the expectations. He came in this league like that and even after about 8 years and championships, he still has the mindset of a rookie.

I'm just not that big on him.  Matter fact I would keep Gordon before him.

What bothers me is why Danny chases the Paul georges and Jimmy butlers with our roster.

Meanwhile we rebound and play defense on a high school level.




 
« Last Edit: March 25, 2019, 04:26:53 PM by Triplenickle »

Re: Making Sense of this Season by Finding Player Equivalents
« Reply #28 on: March 25, 2019, 04:49:18 PM »

Offline Big333223

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What people are actually saying is, "Based on the talent that they have, which is demonstrated by how they played in previous seasons, they should've played better and had a better record this year."

Which is false.  There's no reason to believe anyone on this team can consistently play at a star level other than Kyrie Irving... thus, 43 wins makes plenty of sense.  It's a Top 25 player + a bunch of guys who range from role player to fringe star at most.   You should not expect a team of Lillard/Gay/Gasol to win more than 43-48... and you shouldn't expect a team of Kyrie/Tatum/Horford to win more than 43-48.

This season was built on a false premise that we'd be world-beaters, because Kyrie, Hayward, Tatum, Brown and Horford were all all-star level players.  Time to kill that premise.  It's not accurate.  It's based on nothing of value.  It's like arguing that Jae Crowder and Avery Bradley are all-star level players, because they helped us get to the ECF.  Time to be big boys about this and be honest.

You can disagree with the evaluation of the talent but I wrote about why people evaluated the talent the way they did and it's not false at all.

It seems like you're using the information we have today (the team's play from this season) as a critique of how people evaluated the talent in October but since none of us can see into the future, this is literally revisionist history.
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Re: Making Sense of this Season by Finding Player Equivalents
« Reply #29 on: March 25, 2019, 05:04:26 PM »

Offline Moranis

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What people are actually saying is, "Based on the talent that they have, which is demonstrated by how they played in previous seasons, they should've played better and had a better record this year."

Which is false.  There's no reason to believe anyone on this team can consistently play at a star level other than Kyrie Irving... thus, 43 wins makes plenty of sense.  It's a Top 25 player + a bunch of guys who range from role player to fringe star at most.   You should not expect a team of Lillard/Gay/Gasol to win more than 43-48... and you shouldn't expect a team of Kyrie/Tatum/Horford to win more than 43-48.

This season was built on a false premise that we'd be world-beaters, because Kyrie, Hayward, Tatum, Brown and Horford were all all-star level players.  Time to kill that premise.  It's not accurate.  It's based on nothing of value.  It's like arguing that Jae Crowder and Avery Bradley are all-star level players, because they helped us get to the ECF.  Time to be big boys about this and be honest.
Come on now, Memphis won 56, 50, and 55 games in 3 straight years.  Those teams were basically Gasol, Randolph, Conley, and a bunch of role players.  Portland has multiple 50+ win seasons, won 49 last year, and is on pace for 50+ wins again this year (in a much stronger conference no less).

Even if you assume your player equivalents are accurate (they aren't btw except for Lillard/Irving), this team has significantly under performed.

Even someone like me that has been much more cautious about his team from the summer on, still pegged Boston as 55ish win team in the regular season.  There is no way around the simple fact that the team has underperformed and to me it is quite obvious why.  The 2 main reasons for the underperformance are pretty apparent to me. (1) Irving has shown, what I feared, that he just isn't good enough to be the alpha on a great team.  And (2) Hayward is still a shell of himself.  Both of those things together, has destroyed the chemistry and led to the underperformance.
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