Is Hollinger a Nets fan?

[nickagneta]

Once again, the second time this year, John Hollinger is trying to use his power ranking system and points differential stats to say that Minnesota is worse than New Jersey. Which causes me to ask, why?

Minnesota has 6 more wins than New Jersey and has beaten them both times they played them. New Jersey has to, with only 10 games left, win two of their remaining games to not hold or be tied with, the dubious distinction of having the worst record in the history of the league. That means they have to win 20% of their remaining games to not be considered on of the worst teams EVER even though their season winning percentage is only 12.5%.

Sounds like an uphill battle to me.

So, once again, why is Hollinger making this case for the second time this year? The only thing I can figure is, he must be a NJ Nets fan because the premise just seems pretty ridiculous to me.

[Roy Hobbs]

I think Hollinger's better argument would be that most stats -- including point differential -- break down at the extremes.  When a team is repeatedly getting blown out, leading other teams to rest their starters, etc., you can't draw meaningful conclusions. 

The fact that New Jersey's scrubs perform better in garbage time than Minnesota's do doesn't mean they're a better team.

[nickagneta]

I do have to say though that his critique of the Minnesota front office on their off season moves and Rambis' handling of Love is spot on. I thought Kahn was a bad GM earlier this year for doing some of the moves he did and for his handling of the Rubio situation. I think I called him an idiot. So far, I have to say, he's starting to make McHale look like a good GM.

Here's the article for those that want to read it:

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=PERDiem-100326

Since it's an Insider article I'll quote Hollinger's comments on the front office and Rambis

That the Wolves are in such dire straits at this point gives rise to an interesting question: What exactly are these guys doing?

New GM David Kahn has taken plenty of abuse for his first draft day in 2009, when he selected Ricky Rubio (even though the point guard doesn't seem to want to play for Minnesota), followed it up by taking another point guard (Jonny Flynn) and signed a third one (Ramon Sessions) in free agency. Making matters worse, one point he unloaded (Ty Lawson, taken with the 18th pick and immediately dealt to Denver) appears to be the best of the bunch. Minnesota also passed on Stephen Curry, who seems to be headed to a better career than Flynn or Rubio, and drafted Nick Calathes before trading him as well.

Having done that, the Wolves entered the season with a misshapen roster loaded with small guards but desperately lacking talent on the wings. While third-year pro Corey Brewer has had a minibreakout as a spot-up shooter, the Wolves still don't have a single wing player capable of creating his own shot.

Up front, they have two big, slow, physical players in Al Jefferson and Kevin Love, who would make for a dominant rebounding duo were it not for the fact that they struggle to coexist on the court. Both are so slow that when they share the court, opponents routinely pick apart the Wolves in pick-and-roll and transition plays, offsetting a productive union between the two at the offensive end.

However, those two are Minnesota's only players with Player Efficiency Ratings above the league average, or even close to it. The other organizational resources were more or less squandered this offseason on the likes of Ryan Hollins, first-round bust Wayne Ellington and the not-arriving-anytime-soon Rubio.

Meanwhile, the offseason decision to bring in coach Kurt Rambis is looking shaky as well. Running the triangle with two pick-and-roll point guards and no off-the-dribble scoring raised some eyebrows early in the season, but things have become only weirder of late -- with Love checking Carmelo Anthony in a recent loss to Denver taking the cake.

Love, in fact, has played only 26.3 minutes a game in March and is coming off the bench. Let me say that again for emphasis: Love, the talented 21-year-old who leads the team in PER by a wide margin, is schlepping his way through second quarters with the scrubs like he's any old Juwan Howard or Darius Songaila.

Head-scratching player usage is par for the course, however. Take a look at Minnesota's lineup usage this season, and you'll see an almost perfectly inverse relationship between how effective a group has been and how often it has been used.

For a good visual, this table on Basketballvalue.com offers a fascinating [dang]ation of the Wolves' lineup choices. The five-man unit they use the most has been amazingly ineffective, as it has been destroyed by 20.95 points per 40 minutes. But the team's top 10 lineups cascade in almost perfect descending order of awfulness. The best units feature Love and Sessions -- even though Sessions, a pick-and-roll point guard, has been horribly miscast in a triangle offense -- while the worst feature Flynn and Hollins. Guess which two players start.

You can go deeper and plumb for more questions, such as why the Wolves opted to rent Darko Milicic for the final third of the season rather than play Love … or what they learned in the 25 minutes they gave Alando Tucker before waiving him … or whom Sasha Pavlovic owns incriminating photographs of (he's played 748 minutes with a PER of 4.43).

[PosImpos]

It's a shame to see the Timberwolves mishandled so badly.  They had the #5 and #6 pick in  last year's draft, and they have two first rounders this year as well.  Hopefully Kahn doesn't choke in the draft so badly again.  I don't understand why anybody thought Flynn should be a #6...higher than Curry or Lawson.  He's going to be a career backup. 

They also have a couple of talented big guys in Love and Big Al, though they probably should trade one of them since they don't work well together.

The T-Wolves also have the rights to Nikola Pekovic, one of the most highly anticipated foreign players not yet in the league, and now they also have the rights to Rubio.

Kahn, so far, seems like a total screw-up.  But he still has the assets at his disposal to make amends.

[Fan from VT]

It's a shame to see the Timberwolves mishandled so badly.  They had the #5 and #6 pick in  last year's draft, and they have two first rounders this year as well.  Hopefully Kahn doesn't choke in the draft so badly again.  I don't understand why anybody thought Flynn should be a #6...higher than Curry or Lawson.  He's going to be a career backup. 

They also have a couple of talented big guys in Love and Big Al, though they probably should trade one of them since they don't work well together.

The T-Wolves also have the rights to Nikola Pekovic, one of the most highly anticipated foreign players not yet in the league, and now they also have the rights to Rubio.

Kahn, so far, seems like a total screw-up.  But he still has the assets at his disposal to make amends.

Hey, Johnny flynn was a good college player who had a GREAT 2 week stretch in March! Didn't you read sportsguy's latest column? how you play for 2 weeks in March absolutely should determine where you are drafted! (even though his article has no evidence and is internally contradictory!)

[pearljammer10]

Wolves are a mess.... I love how Darko just came out and said "I would stay in Minnesota next year if I was guaranteed 30 - 35 minutes a game and a starting job..." What a joke...Kids stepping in the starting spot now, averaging about 30 minutes and his numbers are around like 9 points and 4 rebounds a game... Sorry Darkie, those arent starters numbers on the leagues second worst team...

[PosImpos]

It's a shame to see the Timberwolves mishandled so badly.  They had the #5 and #6 pick in  last year's draft, and they have two first rounders this year as well.  Hopefully Kahn doesn't choke in the draft so badly again.  I don't understand why anybody thought Flynn should be a #6...higher than Curry or Lawson.  He's going to be a career backup. 

They also have a couple of talented big guys in Love and Big Al, though they probably should trade one of them since they don't work well together.

The T-Wolves also have the rights to Nikola Pekovic, one of the most highly anticipated foreign players not yet in the league, and now they also have the rights to Rubio.

Kahn, so far, seems like a total screw-up.  But he still has the assets at his disposal to make amends.

Hey, Johnny flynn was a good college player who had a GREAT 2 week stretch in March! Didn't you read sportsguy's latest column? how you play for 2 weeks in March absolutely should determine where you are drafted! (even though his article has no evidence and is internally contradictory!)

Even Simmons admits that he should have seen that Collison would be good based on his circumstances and Ty Lawson had a meal ticket for the pros (his speed).

It's not like Flynn was even that impressive in the NCAA tournament, it was basically that 6 OT game that got scouts so high on him, which is silly.  A 5'11 guy who is fast and a decent passer with a middling outside shot and less than phenomenal athleticism is clearly not a lottery talent.

[colincb]

I agree that Kahn/Rambis has been an unmitigated disaster, but they're still better than NJ.

[Who]

I think it's too early to say anything about David Kahn as a GM.

[Drucci]

Hollinger's only goal is to create some buzz around his articles and to defend controversial points of view to distinguish himself from the common opinion.

It leads him to create some absurd theories that he bases on ridiculous stats, which mean nothing in terms of reality. Sometimes I wonder if Hollinger ever watches some basketball games.

[wdleehi]

Like I said the first time around, doesn't he have anything better to do?


First time around was worse though.  "They would have the same record if the T-Wolves hadn't beat the Nets head to head"

[stoyko]

Unless Rubio is the second coming of Chris Paul, the Wolves are screwed. They have two quality big men that either can't or won't play together and a bunch of scrubs. Unless the Nets have a quality big (Lopez) and a true PG (Harris). Too bad they can't merge and make one quality team.

[jdpapa3]

It's not like Flynn was even that impressive in the NCAA tournament, it was basically that 6 OT game that got scouts so high on him, which is silly.  A 5'11 guy who is fast and a decent passer with a middling outside shot and less than phenomenal athleticism is clearly not a lottery talent.

Wouldn't exactly say a guy with a 40 inch vertical has "less than phenomenal athleticism". I think jury's still out on Flynn. A pg who just celebrated his 21st birthday a month ago and has a team and coach with no experience. I won't knock the Flynn pick, but I will knock the choices of both Flynn and Rubio back to back. Just awful at the time and looks even worse in hindsight. Doesn't help that I'm not too enamored with Rubio.

[Fan from VT]

It's a shame to see the Timberwolves mishandled so badly.  They had the #5 and #6 pick in  last year's draft, and they have two first rounders this year as well.  Hopefully Kahn doesn't choke in the draft so badly again.  I don't understand why anybody thought Flynn should be a #6...higher than Curry or Lawson.  He's going to be a career backup. 

They also have a couple of talented big guys in Love and Big Al, though they probably should trade one of them since they don't work well together.

The T-Wolves also have the rights to Nikola Pekovic, one of the most highly anticipated foreign players not yet in the league, and now they also have the rights to Rubio.

Kahn, so far, seems like a total screw-up.  But he still has the assets at his disposal to make amends.

Hey, Johnny flynn was a good college player who had a GREAT 2 week stretch in March! Didn't you read sportsguy's latest column? how you play for 2 weeks in March absolutely should determine where you are drafted! (even though his article has no evidence and is internally contradictory!)

Even Simmons admits that he should have seen that Collison would be good based on his circumstances and Ty Lawson had a meal ticket for the pros (his speed).

It's not like Flynn was even that impressive in the NCAA tournament, it was basically that 6 OT game that got scouts so high on him, which is silly.  A 5'11 guy who is fast and a decent passer with a middling outside shot and less than phenomenal athleticism is clearly not a lottery talent.

I usually like reading his stuff, but that most recent article was terrible.

It basically boiled down to:
"If someone's awesome during march they will be a great pro and if someone chokes in march they won't be a good pro except for when that's not true."

[Who]

I think it's too early to say anything about David Kahn as a GM.

Excellent decision -- to trade Mike Miller and Randy Foye for the #5 pick

Excellent decision -- to draft Ricky Rubio. A special prospect.

Excellent decision -- to sign Ramon Sessions to a cheap contract. Talented player on a cost effective deal. A short term band aid until Rubio arrives + a very valuable trade asset.

Excellent decision -- trading Telfair and Smith to the Clippers in a cost saving move that created additional cap space for 2010.

Excellent decision -- trading Songaila to the Hornets in exchange for Antonio Daniels in a cost saving move that created additional cap space for 2010.

Very good decision -- trading the #18 pick (Ty Lawson) for the Bobcats 2010 draft pick

Good decision -- trading Cardinal for Darko Milicic. A good risk reward acquisition. A two month trial to see if Darko is worth pursuing this summer. Plus, a major upgrade talent wise from Cardinal to Darko.

Solid decision -- acquisition of Alando Tucker

Solid decision -- acquisition of Nathan Jawai

Solid decision -- signing Sasha Pavlovic to a cheap contract

Undetermined decision -- hiring Kurt Rambis. I like Rambis as a coaching prospect but his system doesn't suit their current crop of talent. If Kahn molds the team more into Rambis' vision then this will become a good hire. If not, it's a bad hire. Too early to say.

Poor decision -- drafting Jonny Flynn. A weak prospect that high in the draft ... If Kahn hadn't made this mistake  several others would have stepped up so I'm not going to be harsh on him for the pick ... Kahn decided Flynn was the best talent available and significantly superior to players who played a more beneficial position (DeRozan). I like the thought process and it should serve him well in the future.

Poor decision -- drafting Wayne Ellington at the end of the first round

Poor decision -- poor use of two mid-second round draft picks since considerable talent was available late in the draft.

Very poor decision -- signing Ryan Hollins to that contract

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I also like Kahn's lack of confidence in Al Jefferson's abilities.

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I think David Kahn is getting too much criticism for the job he has done so far.

It's way too early to say what type of a GM he's going to be.