Author Topic: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)  (Read 187330 times)

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Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #105 on: September 12, 2013, 04:32:59 PM »

Offline Roy H.

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Guys, I know this is hard. We're Celtics fans, but you have to at least acknowledge the possibilities that

(1) KG might not be ambulatory for the playoffs

and

(2) KG playing 30 (or 40) minutes in next year's finals might not be above replacement level.

if you acknowledge the possibilities, then the next step is to try to be rational about the probabilities.

I think there's a possibility, but it's certainly not 60%.  Closer to 5%, I'd say, but that's of course arbitrary.

The day KG plays at a replacement level is the day he retires.


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Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #106 on: September 12, 2013, 04:34:09 PM »

Offline AB_Celtic

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TPs to both KGK and Lucky. KG is old, yes, but he has never had as much rest in a regular season as he did in this exercise. He sat out one out of every five games guys.

Expect a fully healthy, ratchet-it-up-a-level-because-it's-the-playoffs Garnett in this series.

Look at you campaigning...

I'm not just agreeing with them to win their vote, I'm agreeing with them because... I agree with them haha.

And I gotta campaign hard here, otherwise people will vote Wolves just because they have LeBron. LeBron is beatable folks. The Spurs almost did it, and would have if not for Ray.

Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #107 on: September 12, 2013, 04:36:02 PM »

Offline Roy H.

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But isn't this against the general operating principle of this exercise? I thought we were discounting injuries completely. I know I have.

KG's also on a minutes regimen during the regular season, and getting days off in between during the playoffs. Cleveland has advanced thus far in the playoffs. Do KG's wheels suddenly fall off once he reaches the Finals?

That is a very interesting point. If Cleveland's arrival in the finals means we should assume a priori that KG is being KG, then I absolutely withdraw all of this argument. I am certainly not trying to make the point that KG will suffer a sudden decline during the actual finals series itself.

I didn't take the rules that way.

Well, how did Cleveland make the Finals without a healthy KG?

There's no set rule on this, but I think a generally accepted agreement has been that if a team makes a deep playoff run (or regular season run), then injuries obviously weren't a huge factor in that season.


I'M THE SILVERBACK GORILLA IN THIS MOTHER——— AND DON'T NONE OF YA'LL EVER FORGET IT!@ 34 minutes

Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #108 on: September 12, 2013, 04:36:56 PM »

Offline sofutomygaha

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Guys, I know this is hard. We're Celtics fans, but you have to at least acknowledge the possibilities that

(1) KG might not be ambulatory for the playoffs

and

(2) KG playing 30 (or 40) minutes in next year's finals might not be above replacement level.

if you acknowledge the possibilities, then the next step is to try to be rational about the probabilities.

I think there's a possibility, but it's certainly not 60%.  Closer to 5%, I'd say, but that's of course arbitrary.

The day KG plays at a replacement level is the day he retires.


Roy, you are telling me you honestly believe that if the Nets made the finals next year, KG would be 95% likely to play.


Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #109 on: September 12, 2013, 04:38:21 PM »

Offline Roy H.

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Guys, I know this is hard. We're Celtics fans, but you have to at least acknowledge the possibilities that

(1) KG might not be ambulatory for the playoffs

and

(2) KG playing 30 (or 40) minutes in next year's finals might not be above replacement level.

if you acknowledge the possibilities, then the next step is to try to be rational about the probabilities.

I think there's a possibility, but it's certainly not 60%.  Closer to 5%, I'd say, but that's of course arbitrary.

The day KG plays at a replacement level is the day he retires.


Roy, you are telling me you honestly believe that if the Nets made the finals next year, KG would be 95% likely to play.

If the Nets are in the Finals next season, I think it's about 99.8% likely that KG has been healthy and contributing, and that he'll play in the Finals.


I'M THE SILVERBACK GORILLA IN THIS MOTHER——— AND DON'T NONE OF YA'LL EVER FORGET IT!@ 34 minutes

Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #110 on: September 12, 2013, 04:39:05 PM »

Offline Fafnir

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I think that's the generally advanced argument of those who want to minimize age/injury.

As for KG I'm sure he'd be on the court, the question is at what level he's playing at. I'm thinking late last year when they rested him. He didn't look good at all and they shut him down prepping for the playoffs.

That's the sort of thing that concerns me about KG, that and that his peak play will drop from KG to more along the lines of Okafor or Robin Lopez. (from top 20 guy to high level defensive role player)

Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #111 on: September 12, 2013, 04:40:45 PM »

Offline KGs Knee

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There's no set rule on this, but I think a generally accepted agreement has been that if a team makes a deep playoff run (or regular season run), then injuries obviously weren't a huge factor in that season.

I never heard of this "agreement", but that is how I viewed it.  Basically, I deducted for injuries in the regular season, but figured, if the team made the playoffs, the player was likely healthy enough to contribute (barring recent and notable history suggesting otherwise-Amare Stoudemire for example).

Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #112 on: September 12, 2013, 04:41:02 PM »

Offline indeedproceed

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I think KG will need to be on the court closer to 40 minutes than 30. He's their only rim protector.

Horford averaged just as many blocks as KG last year.
Rim protection is not about blocked shots.

Horford isn't in the same class defensively as KG, especially at the C position.

So you're knocking us for having *only one* defensive player of a generation? Tough crowd.

KG will play 35 minutes in this series. And he can handle that with all his rest from the regular season.

KG is playing no more than 28 mpg during the regular season, right?

And he never played in back to backs?

So he probably never played more than 85 minutes in a given week, and likely less the far majority of weeks.

This however will be well into his 2nd month of 35 minute games, 3 times a week, with heavy travel. If you figure that each series was 6 games, he plays 35 minutes a game, he'll be walking into this Finals after playing 630 minutes in roughly 7 weeks, whereas if you assume no back to backs and a few missed games here and there, it would've taken him basically 2 months to play the same minutes during the regular season.

With the way he ran out of gas during the long conference finals run in 2012(talkin' bout the last 2 games), anyone else think that KG doesn't have it in him to go the full road to the trophy as a centerpiece component at 35 minutes a night?


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like that is always lethal." - Evan 'The God' Turner

Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #113 on: September 12, 2013, 04:41:46 PM »

Offline Roy H.

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I think that's the generally advanced argument of those who want to minimize age/injury.

As for KG I'm sure he'd be on the court, the question is at what level he's playing at. I'm thinking late last year when they rested him. He didn't look good at all and they shut him down prepping for the playoffs.

That's the sort of thing that concerns me about KG, that and that his peak play will drop from KG to more along the lines of Okafor or Robin Lopez. (from top 20 guy to high level defensive role player)

Is Okafor with a great jumper that bad of a player?  Lopez doesn't have the same level of defense, but give him range out to 20 feet, and he'd be pretty nice, too.

But, KG isn't there yet.


I'M THE SILVERBACK GORILLA IN THIS MOTHER——— AND DON'T NONE OF YA'LL EVER FORGET IT!@ 34 minutes

Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #114 on: September 12, 2013, 04:42:15 PM »

Offline indeedproceed

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Oh, I see other people do have this concern and we're discussing it now. I had to write that question in pieces cuz customers kept walking in.

"You've gotta respect a 15-percent 3-point shooter. A guy
like that is always lethal." - Evan 'The God' Turner

Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #115 on: September 12, 2013, 04:44:00 PM »

Offline Fafnir

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I think that's the generally advanced argument of those who want to minimize age/injury.

As for KG I'm sure he'd be on the court, the question is at what level he's playing at. I'm thinking late last year when they rested him. He didn't look good at all and they shut him down prepping for the playoffs.

That's the sort of thing that concerns me about KG, that and that his peak play will drop from KG to more along the lines of Okafor or Robin Lopez. (from top 20 guy to high level defensive role player)

Is Okafor with a great jumper that bad of a player?  Lopez doesn't have the same level of defense, but give him range out to 20 feet, and he'd be pretty nice, too.

But, KG isn't there yet.
He might be this next year. And he wouldn't be a bad player, but he'd be a average to slightly above average starter.

Not the best player on his team, which is what Cleveland needs from him in my view. But I'm not all that high on Ty Lawson/Horford.

Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #116 on: September 12, 2013, 04:44:55 PM »

Offline sofutomygaha

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Guys, I know this is hard. We're Celtics fans, but you have to at least acknowledge the possibilities that

(1) KG might not be ambulatory for the playoffs

and

(2) KG playing 30 (or 40) minutes in next year's finals might not be above replacement level.

if you acknowledge the possibilities, then the next step is to try to be rational about the probabilities.

I think there's a possibility, but it's certainly not 60%.  Closer to 5%, I'd say, but that's of course arbitrary.

The day KG plays at a replacement level is the day he retires.


Roy, you are telling me you honestly believe that if the Nets made the finals next year, KG would be 95% likely to play.

If the Nets are in the Finals next season, I think it's about 99.8% likely that KG has been healthy and contributing, and that he'll play in the Finals.

What you have just told me is that the Nets only have a 0.2% chance of making the finals without a healthy and effective KG. I might even agree with that statement, but it's not the question I mean to ask.

What I am asking is this. If you tried to put 37-year-old KG through 65 regular season games and then another 20 playoff games, what are the odds that he'd make it?

Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #117 on: September 12, 2013, 04:46:11 PM »

Offline KGs Knee

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Is Okafor with a great jumper that bad of a player?

Okafor isn't a bad player, as is.  I just don't understand how you can not see this, and why you insist on being so wrong about him.

Off-topic though, I guess.

Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #118 on: September 12, 2013, 04:48:08 PM »

Offline sofutomygaha

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I think KG will need to be on the court closer to 40 minutes than 30. He's their only rim protector.

Horford averaged just as many blocks as KG last year.
Rim protection is not about blocked shots.

Horford isn't in the same class defensively as KG, especially at the C position.

So you're knocking us for having *only one* defensive player of a generation? Tough crowd.

KG will play 35 minutes in this series. And he can handle that with all his rest from the regular season.

KG is playing no more than 28 mpg during the regular season, right?

And he never played in back to backs?

So he probably never played more than 85 minutes in a given week, and likely less the far majority of weeks.

This however will be well into his 2nd month of 35 minute games, 3 times a week, with heavy travel. If you figure that each series was 6 games, he plays 35 minutes a game, he'll be walking into this Finals after playing 630 minutes in roughly 7 weeks, whereas if you assume no back to backs and a few missed games here and there, it would've taken him basically 2 months to play the same minutes during the regular season.

With the way he ran out of gas during the long conference finals run in 2012(talkin' bout the last 2 games), anyone else think that KG doesn't have it in him to go the full road to the trophy as a centerpiece component at 35 minutes a night?

This is the argument that I'm making. AB and others are saying we should assume KG has made it this far healthy, but I don't think that's fair to Minnie, who has fielded a legitimately far more durable team.

Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #119 on: September 12, 2013, 04:48:45 PM »

Offline AB_Celtic

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But I'm not all that high on Ty Lawson/Horford.

Really? A lot of people around here seem to realize that both Lawson and Horford are both very underrated players at their positions. Maybe you want to read my blurbs on them in the presser?

And to address the general KG conversation: during all of these playoff runs (or at least since Perk left) KG was the only above-average defensive big man on the Celtics. Now he's playing alongside Horford (very good defensively) and Landry (above-average defensively). That will relieve him of some pressure and allow him to play better on both ends of the floor.