Here's the problem I have with this series:
One team is relying on a 38 year old Kevin Garnett to be its lynchpin to victory, while the other team is relying on Serge Ibaka to be its second best player, and Monta Ellis to be a consistent scorer.
I don't think any one of those three things are possible.
I'm surprised that many voters seem to be low on Horford and Lawson.
I'm also surprised to see many voters who usually are pretty savvy when it comes to analytics and efficiency turn their back on those numbers in favor of the Lebron win button.
First of all, if irony were made of strawberries, we'd all be drinking a lot of smoothies right now.
Secondly, I want to know if the, "usually you guys are super smart when it comes to this stuff. I'm just really surprised you're so dumb about it right now" argumentative tactic is a winner. It's complisult, and a fine one.
Thirdly, what's the better bet: Betting on Lebron to pull a uninspired cast of misfits and ne'er-do-wells kicking and screaming through their ceiling and out the other side, or a cast of second-tier stars coming together through a grueling playoff run and coming out as improbable winners against the best basketball player on the planet?
Cuz I mean, I really, really don't like the Minnesota team. But at the same time I don't think the Cleveland team is all that great. I guess I have an easier time thinking that the defense from KG and Horford and heroic efforts from Ty Lawson (career 56% shooter against Bradley, with some big games where both guys played big minutes), and average production from Horford/Garnett offensively..I dunno.
I'll say the same thing I argued last year: it's always disappointing to see any voter cast a ballot based only on surface arguments.
I think the idea that Lebron can, by himself, carry a bunch of below-average players with *terrible* efficiency to a title is silly. It has ZERO basis in reality. None, at all. Both in real life and the CB Draft, to win Lebron has needed to have good players around him.
But, the problem with the CB Draft in general is that many people are busy, and don't have the time to read the various arguments, or to spend a lot of time thinking about it. They're going to vote based upon conventional wisdom, or their own preconceived biases.
So, what you get is the Win Button. It's a credit to you last year that you constructed a team that was good enough to go down to the wire with a Lebron squad that had another star player, a very good defense, and a very efficient offense. Most years from now on, that will never happen, because people just assume "Lebron = win". Even when Lebron's top five teammates all have a TS% below .485.
As for the "you're too stupid" argument, it probably comes across like that. It's genuine disappointment. I see bright, informed voters use analytics every day in these forums, and many of them are slaves to efficiency (in a good way). When we get to the CB Draft, though, that sometimes goes out the window. It's kind of a stomach punch seeing stuff like that, because I expect more. At the very least, give some vigorous, reasoned debate, you know? So, I apologize if it comes across as insulting, but I don't really retract it. A lot of the arguments that have been advanced this week to justify votes have been ultra-weak. I guess that's better than those who vote without commenting, but I guess I expect more. (And for the record, that doesn't include everyone who disagrees with me. Several voters have spent a ton of time explaining their reasoning.)