**Official Celticsblog 2016 NBA Draft Lottery thread**

[Kane3387]

Nets are gonna suck again. They were actually trying this year and finished third worst behind Phoenix. Look at the other worst five teams. Only the lakers might try to tank next year. So they can keep their pick again. Philly, Minnesota and Phoenix will try to be competing.

[Neurotic Guy]

Nets are gonna suck again. They were actually trying this year and finished third worst behind Phoenix. Look at the other worst five teams. Only the lakers might try to tank next year. So they can keep their pick again. Philly, Minnesota and Phoenix will try to be competing.

Don't the Lakers give up their pick to Philly next year?   LAL actually tries to win in 2016-17.

[crimson_stallion]

Nets are gonna suck again. They were actually trying this year and finished third worst behind Phoenix. Look at the other worst five teams. Only the lakers might try to tank next year. So they can keep their pick again. Philly, Minnesota and Phoenix will try to be competing.

I wouldn't bet  on the  nets being nearly as bad this year.   They have a lot of opportunity to improve.   Not saying they won't be crap, just it's not certain the way it was last year.

[greece66]

Nets are gonna suck again. They were actually trying this year and finished third worst behind Phoenix. Look at the other worst five teams. Only the lakers might try to tank next year. So they can keep their pick again. Philly, Minnesota and Phoenix will try to be competing.

I wouldn't bet  on the  nets being nearly as bad this year.   They have a lot of opportunity to improve.   Not saying they won't be crap, just it's not certain the way it was last year.

Who knows.

On the bright side, several bad teams in the NBA are expected to be better: I am thinking of LAL and Minny in particular, but depending what moves they make in the summer, Knicks, SAC and Philly could be better too - in theory, all these teams want good results  here and now.

I guess the good news that the Nets might turn out better than last year but - if we are lucky- they might still be a bottom 5 team thanks to the improvement of the other teams at the bottom.

[saltlover]

Nets are gonna suck again. They were actually trying this year and finished third worst behind Phoenix. Look at the other worst five teams. Only the lakers might try to tank next year. So they can keep their pick again. Philly, Minnesota and Phoenix will try to be competing.

I wouldn't bet  on the  nets being nearly as bad this year.   They have a lot of opportunity to improve.   Not saying they won't be crap, just it's not certain the way it was last year.

I would absolutely bet on the Nets being nearly as bad as last year.  Is it certain, no?  But it is likely.  Below is the frequency with which teams who finished with the second-to-fourth worst record since 2000 (ties inclusive) finished in respective lottery odds slots (in other words, one spot better or worse than the Nets this year):

1st   5
2nd   4
3rd   4
4th   5
5th   3.5
6th   4.5
7th   3
8th   4.5
9th   3.5
10th   0.5
11th   2.5
12th   1.5
13th   0.5
14th   2
Playoffs   9

The half points account for ties (so a team finishing T-5th counts as half 5 and half 6th).  A full third of the teams (18/53) finished with the fourth lottery odds or better, and half finished with the sixth lottery odds or better.

Meanwhile, looking at teams who were able to escape the lottery altogether shows us a different type of team than the Nets.  Generally they were either teams who had drafted multiple years in the bottom and finally turned the corner (2005 Bulls, 2010 Thunder), made a trade using their top pick to acquire an established star (2005 Wizards, 2008 Celtics), or used a combination of free agency and NBA lottery pick to take a step forward (2004 Heat and 2004 Nuggets).  The Nets are not those teams.  The Nets could be like the 2015 Celtics, who had a secondary star in Rondo and a complimentary veteran in Jeff Green, and a few younger role players.  Of course, that Celtics team defied the odds by making the playoffs after trading away their theoretical best players.  Is it possible the Nets do that? Sure.  Is it likely? I don't think even Danny Ainge knows why the 2014-2015 season went the way it did, so it seems difficult to repeat.  Basically it's only that Celtics team and the 2013-2014 Suns (who barely missed the playoffs and finished with the 14th-worst odds) that were somehow able to turn around the prior year's team without relying on significant offseason acquisitions (unless you count. Eric Bledsoe for Phoenix.). Even then, both of those teams did have a top draft pick, although in the case of Phoenix, Alex Len was not very effective.

Additionally, if you look at the teams around Brookyln's record this year, it's hard to think the Nets have a leg up on many.  Philly, they probably do, but that team does have the ability to swing trades, and now the cache with the Colangelo's at the helm to sway players and agents.  The Lakers are still they Lakers, and now have a team with three top lottery picks and the cap space for two max deals.  The Suns are an enigma, but that team has at least as much talent as the Nets. The Wolves could very well take off with an NBA coach at the helm.  The Magic are the East's version of the Suns, but now have a good coach as well.  The Nuggets suffered a ton of injuries this year, have a lot of young talent, and still bested the Nets by 9 games.  The Kings and Knicks have a lot of problems, but both still have a better foundation than Brookyln.

Brookyln has cap space, but the $40 million they can create with ease is still only the 10th most.  They have a rookie GM and a rookie head coach -- what free agent who is concerned about winning is going to choose their offer over that of another teams, dollars being equal.  They'll be limited to third-tier rotation players, hoping they strike big on a couple who are ready to take a major leap forward.  Is that possible?  Of course.  Is it even slightly likely?  Not at all.

To recap: History is not on Brookyln's side to make a jump.  Their present circumstances are not favorable relative to the other bad teams.  They have a decent cap situation, but it is not terribly special this year.  They have no assets for making trades to improve the team in the short-term.  They also have no reason to believe last year's team was an aberration.  It was relatively healthy.  Based on point differential they lost one more game than expected.  Advanced metrics like SRS had them 28th of 30th, so they finished right where they should have.

So yes, I would absolutely bet on the nets having the 5th-worst record or better (from the Celtics perspective).

[ThePaintedArea]

Nets are gonna suck again. They were actually trying this year and finished third worst behind Phoenix. Look at the other worst five teams. Only the lakers might try to tank next year. So they can keep their pick again. Philly, Minnesota and Phoenix will try to be competing.

I wouldn't bet  on the  nets being nearly as bad this year.   They have a lot of opportunity to improve.   Not saying they won't be crap, just it's not certain the way it was last year.

Brookyln has cap space, but the $40 million they can create with ease is still only the 10th most.  They have a rookie GM and a rookie head coach -- what free agent who is concerned about winning is going to choose their offer over that of another teams, dollars being equal.  They'll be limited to third-tier rotation players, hoping they strike big on a couple who are ready to take a major leap forward.  Is that possible?  Of course.  Is it even slightly likely?  Not at all.

I think you're right, and it's even worse than you say.

With cap space, they could bring in above-replacement vets on short-term overpays to put around Lopez and Thad Young. But why? To spite the Celtics? To win 25 games? The picks are gone, it doesn't matter if they're 1 or 14 or whatever.  Better to get high-upside youth and start building a winning culture - and go for the #1 in 2019.  There's no incentive to win until then. Get some guys you think can help you down the road.

Nets get Boston's 2nd in 2017 if they swap firsts - but only if it's worse than 45. And of course they have their own seconds. All their incentives are for them to suck and for Boston to be good.

Would Brook or Young want to be mentors as they enter their prime years? Both are signed through 2018. Career in limbo for two years?  That's an eternity for an NBA player. I'd want out anyway I could. The more you look at this, the bigger the slow-motion calamity looms for Brooklyn - but by the same token, the less sense it makes for them to get better.