Rajon Rondo:Built for halfcourt basketball

[action781]

Once again Orlando I has given up 105-110 almost all of there past 10 games as we'll. This game should've went over whether it been OT with that bs loose ball foul call or that Avery pass to nobody or that 3rd quarter.

Right, funny thing Orlando went on a western road trip similar to Boston also facing mostly good offensive squads. Most of the same schedule considerations that I brought up for Boston could be said for them. Overall their defense is 17th, slightly worse than the C's but not by much. Certainly not as awful as you seem to think.

Oh and Boston's offense is terrible as well so weakness meets average = disappointment for you I guess.

Boss ur points are not being validated in betting terms. In logic yes your right, but betting terms and handicapping mindset there's really no logic to your assessments.

I'm pretty sure that Fafnir's points were indeed validated in betting terms by the very outcome of the game.

[bleedGREENdon]

Lol I bring out the statistics and the facts and no reply to that.  Btw it was a $30 bet to win $2000 only had the celtics over left. I am a great handicapper. 

[Fafnir]

Lol I bring out the statistics and the facts and no reply to that.  Btw it was a $30 bet to win $2000 only had the celtics over left. I am a great handicapper. 

Actually I just hadn't clicked this topic. Foxpro queries keep me occupied.

Nothing in your post invalidates my points. Like I said you keep bringing up the teams recent performances. Those were against a gauntlet of western conference offensive squads.

The fact that you conflate with how good a team's defense is based on PPG makes me think you're not onboard with rate adjusted and other more advanced statistics. I suggest you bone up on them as they'd help you make better bets.

Once again you look at the minutia of "on pace to go over" at half. The thing is most basketball games scoring is volatile, you don't score 24-25 per quarter.

Like I said two solid (average) defensive teams that play crappy offense met. Betting the over is a bad bet. I'll note that you talk about the 120-105 score but not the game 3 days prior that was 91 - 89.

Frankly if you're handicapping and you're at a 70% to 87.5% you must be a pro making several hundred thousand a year if not millions. That's a win rate that exceeds most professional gamblers and prediction sites by several std. deviations.

So congrats on your luxurious lifestyle.

[OhioGreen]

Couldn't post today--at work--but thinking about my post while reading others and realized that the reverse of Rondo built for halfcourt BB, is that our current team is NOT built for halfcourt BB! I think this started becoming a problem last year, and even towards the end of the previous season as PP, KG, and Ray started winding down their careers getting older. Especially PP, who used to just take the ball and basically tell everyone to get out of the way and he'd make something good happen. We could see it coming, slowly, and last year he just couldn't do it anymore. Where the big 3 & RR used to just grind it out and beat you in halfcourt, they couldn't do it anymore. In the 4th quarter,crunch time, where NBA games are really one and lost, we were'nt effective and lost leads and games---and Rondo didn't really make a considerable difference.
This year we have NO 1 on 1 players, hence we do pretty well in the first 3 qtrs. and then blow leads consistently in the fourth!! We get out and run and play freely, but once crunch time gets there---no one to take over.  Yesterday was a perfect example, as Rondo waited for someone to step up and nobody would shoot! Nobody could create! We have all the players in the world to run, but none to play halfcourt. RR is just the opposite. Square peg in round hole, or round peg in square hole.
In baseball they always say it's alot easier to fire the manager than the whole team. Well, do we wait, maybe years, to put the right kind of players back around Rajon, or get a PG who loves to run? I think Danny is trying to do a little of both, with Phil Pressey the up tempo guy!
One of the other post spoke of Rondo trying to learn what style to play with his current teammates, but I'm not buying that as astute as he is after sitting watching the same things we have all season, surely he knows why everything breaks down in the last qtr!
JG,Hump,AB,GW,KO,JB and PP can run and make easy shots in transition--as Tommy says "run,run,run and run some more!".

[D.o.s.]

To be fair, though, Tommy would say that the team needed to run more even if they all got Tonya Harding'd during the player introductions.

[samjones]

Celtics don't play defense well enough to get key stops at the end of games, which puts the running game out of commission. They are playing three-on-five on offense in end-of-game situations. Rondo, Green, and Sullinger can all make something happen to generate points, are willing to shoot, and can actually make clutch shots, but Green and Sullinger can still be neutralized by top notch defenders like Josh Smith. Bradley has not reached the point of being dependable in those situations. Bass looks better this year than in the past in tight situations, but Humphries is clearly uncomfortable shooting jumpers in the last five minutes of a game. Celtics are still two starters short, at the center spot and SG, and at least one of those additions needs to be a dominant go-to scorer. If the center spot gets anchored by a defense-only center like Perk, then there has to be an upgrade at SF or PF to get a second dominant scorer on the floor. To me, Green is like Ray Allen - a great clutch three-point shooter to spread the floor (minus the clutch free-throw shooting). But there's no Pierce or Garnett who can create and make a shot on their own in the final frantic minutes. Danny has his work cut out for him finding the next great players to finish this team.

When I saw Nelson, Oladipo, Affalo, and Davis on the floor for Orlando at the end of the game, I felt like the Celtics were out-gunned four players to three, with Rondo being a question mark among those three due to his lay-off. Celtics are going to be out-manned in most games during the end-game scenarios.

But in some respects, it's not all bad. Being very close at the end of games suggests that we are only a couple of key acquisitions away from being very competitive, but losing lets me indulge my fantasies about getting a top-five pick this year to get a shot at a potentially dominant player.

[Mazingerz]

What was glaring yesterday was the Magic's guard penetration; Bradley lets his man go most of the time; At first I thought it was a miscue by Bradley, but he is the sieve;

[pokeKingCurtis]

One other thing to consider--he's recovering from an ACL tear.

You can't reasonably expect him to be going full speed when he's still on a minutes restriction and shaking the rust off.

Now, if he's still playing like this in the middle of March, then I think there's a legitimate critique to be made.

/thread

[2short]

What was glaring yesterday was the Magic's guard penetration; Bradley lets his man go most of the time; At first I thought it was a miscue by Bradley, but he is the sieve;

bradley's defense has taken 2 steps back this year

back to the initial topic
rondo ran 1 man (himself) fast breaks last year, had to hold ball up for his teammates
one of the smartest players i've seen he'll adapt to whatever the team is doing
and in the brief time he was playing against orlando, to me, its very noticeable how rondo is in a different class than anyone that was on court
the little things he does, finds mismatches, dribbling the ball holding it he made the defensive 3 second call, passing lanes

a joy to watch